Trov

The constant platooning of guys is one thing I am greatly against. I am for it in certain guys and situations, but I hate when you have a kid you want to be a star, and expect will be one, and you never give them a chance to be one. If you look at AK's career splits at MLB level, could not find minor levels, but he is not terrible, this year has not been great, but how can you expect him to be better if you never let him do it? He seems like the type that should be able to hold his own against same side pitchers because he is willing to hit other way, so the breaking pitches away from him will not be something he will roll over or swing through much. You cannot know who your stars will be if you never give them a chance.

Sadly he will not likely get regular at-bats with us at MLB level. Buck is taking up DH with what appears to be no plans ever to return him to OF. AK is at 1B, but could move to OF. So possible to move AK to OF get get Williams a chance at MLB level sometime.

I hate when people evaluate trades based just on the players involved. I say this because roster building is just not that simple. If we did not make the trade for Lopez, we would be having SWR, Winder, Sanchez, or some combo of guys doing pen games for our 5th starter right now. Lopez just had a great start, in a Twins loss, but not his fault. But really without Lopez in our rotation right now we would be pretty bad off and everyone would be begging for a trade for a starter. Assuming Arraez would have put up same numbers with Twins this year, not sure if he would, but he still would be doing well, he would have maybe helped us a few games. Would he be playing 2nd or 1st mainly for us? I do not know, but if he is in the line up, someone else is out, which right now would have been a good thing. However, we have much more depth in our system of MLB ready or hopefully in near future, that can play 1st and 2nd, more than we have MLB ready starting pitching. I love Arraez and he is fun to watch. He does not fit the current Twins offense approach, not saying that our current approach is good, but our hope is that in next year or two we will hopefully have someone close to or better hitting at 2nd and 1st base. Sure, they will not have the same average, but their OPS will be similar or better, is the hope. Time will tell. It is too early to judge the trade, and if you look at just players involved, you are short changing the fact the organization hopes Lee and AK will be taking the positions Arraez would most likely be playing for them, and the hope both will be overall better on both sides of the ball. Arraez is still a super talent, do not get me wrong, but we dealt from a position of depth, to a team with depth. We both had needs and it fit perfect. I do not agree you cannot look at the extension as part of the value assessment either because we could not have signed Lopez to an extension without the trade for him, at best we would have had to sign him in FA, which may not have happened.

At this point he has almost no value to Twins, and will have no trade value for anyone, unless they feel they can fix his issues. He still has value on defense, but his offense is a negative and hurting the team. We have too many poor hitting players in our line up right now, we need some offense. We cannot continue to give him at-bats. Since his last stint on IL he has 3 singles in 28 at bats, no walks, and 8 strike outs. I still like his defense but he is an auto out right now and when we have too many guys that get out with no power our offense will struggle even more. We have a guy that may not be great on defense, but his lighting up at the plate in AAA and was his last couple of games at MLB, why not bring him in now?

Yes, Cano is putting up insane numbers in Baltimore, and maybe he will sustain that, but who saw it coming? I mean he always had stuff, but he could not find the strike zone consistently. Now, he is not walking anyone. Until this year, he walked about as many as he struck out. This year he is not walking anyone. I am not saying he will revert back, he may not, but who would have expected him from going career average of like 8 walks per 9 to 0.6. Clearly Baltimore found something, just as they did when they moved Lopez into the pen, but will it be for a career or will league adjust?

I was wondering the same thing about him and CF. I know his arm is not the strongest, which could be an issue in CF, but if he can get on base at high clip and cover enough ground he may be the CF in the near future. Not saying this year, unless he is lighting it up later, but looking into next year CF is a big question with the looks that Buck is never getting back out there.

That is what I was getting at. It could be our age of players that are struggling, but the whole league seems to be down a bit. Maybe weather, or maybe just on a cycle of young hitters and older pitchers. It could be many teams progressed up the hitters faster than the pitchers so they are now facing more experienced pitcher than they did last year. I am not worried about our prospects bottoming out but it was something that kind of struck me that everyone seems to be down compared to last year.

I was looking through our top prospect lists, now that we are 2 months into season. I was noticing that all our top prospects in Cedar Rapids are not doing well at the plate. I am wondering is that just a natural progression that the comp they are facing there are more advanced right now, or should the organization have concern about the coaching there? Maybe it is just the league is getting tougher league. It used to be FCL was known to be a pitchers league, but maybe it is just high A is more a pitchers league. When I compare the FCL with the International league, the one CR are in, the offense is better in FCL overall, not a huge jump, but better. Fort Myers leads the FCL in OPS, but CR is mid league in OPS, and about 80 points less. Yes, there are different hitters, but guys that dominated last year, or even earlier this year, in Fort Myers are not doing it nearly as well this year, or since their call ups. E-Rod was not going to do what he did last year all year prior to his injury. His k-rate is about the same as other years, but his power is much lower, it could be his core injury he had, which will sap power, or maybe something else. He is not alone. Outside of Rosario, who is having a huge breakout year so far, just about everyone is hitting below their expectations. Is it just how things are lining up for players? Is it the players themselves, some combo of bad adjustments, injuries, or bad luck? Is it the coaching? Is it a combo? I get the lower level of minors is not about the numbers, but the development, but when you see such poor numbers for who are supposed to be top guys, you being to wonder.

I think what we have seen from the Twins is nothing is settled, but Lewis should be there for hopefully many years to come. Even if Miranda gets back to hitting like he has shown, his defense is terrible compared to Lewis. If Lewis in CC and play the level of defense they have shown, we may need to start looking for ground ball pitchers.

It is unlikely he stays at 2nd base if he sticks with the team. I expect Lewis, Lee, and Correa to make up some combo of 3rd ss and 2nd primary positions for hopefully years to come. Unless one of them get moved to OF. If not, they should hopefully get the majority of the time in those spots. This is also why you cannot always count on guys coming up and being MLB level guys.

You can never look at each trade in a vacuum of these guys for that guy(s), and who won trade. You have to pay attention to other moves made or not made, who else was in system and so on. Looking at Steer, he has shown good offense, something we knew he had, but also shown poor defense. bWAR has him negative at defense playing 3rd, 1st, and DH this year. He maybe would have played some 2nd if we kept him. Would his offensive numbers slotting in at 2nd for who we have put out may have been nice, but who knows what defense he would have brought. Right now, he would not be in our starting lineup though, because Buck has DH locked up, AK or Gallo have 1b locked up, Steer could get games against lefties some times, and Lewis will have 3rd mostly locked down. So where does Steer play for us, or who would you want to get moved out for Steer? CES may very well mash, but again, he plays basically no defense. He is playing mostly 1b for Reds AAA team, and that is not great. He is all offense, and his k-rate is a little scary. He may turn out to be one of those AAAA players that when facing MLB level pitching his K-rate becomes a big concern, we will see. Either way, unless he is a superstar hitter, he would again most likely slot behind guys we have already. Keeping in mind for both Steer and CES, Lee is in the wings too. Will the trade haunt? No, it will not in my opinion. The only thing you can really be upset about is that we did not get much in return, and maybe could have flipped them for something during off-season. However, I am not seeing either being that much better than who we have that I would be like darn what could have been. Maybe CES becomes a hitting superstar, but I just have a feeling he will struggle at MLB level, not many guys that strike out at a rate of about 33% at minor league level improve at MLB level. If he cannot keep up his very high BABIP at MLB level when he gets called up, he will struggle badly and since he offers no defense he will have less value.

Great game for Lewis. I did not see his first at-bat, but his HR was a great 2 strike approach. He hit a nice liner to right that carried just far enough. His last at-bat was also great approach. He said he was looking for the slider and hit it right back up the middle. I know he has very small amount of time in majors and even high minors constantly coming off injuries, but every thing I have see at the plate with him I like. He is not just trying to hit HR or pull the ball but has an actual plan up there and adjusts to the count. I know he will rarely play back to back games for awhile but will look forward to every game he plays. The ump yesterday had a terrible zone. Not sure what his score card was, but he had a few very bad calls, and some in big situations.

Wallner will get his chance next year most likely. He will keep getting chances as guys get hurt and what not, but his lack of defense will be something that holds him back. The fact Buck is now a DH and appears will never play OF again, I am hoping I am wrong, this takes away the DH from Wallner. He will either need to improve greatly, or be such an extremely good hitter we will deal with the bad defense.

He has shown there is a good chance he will end up on 40 man during this year, depending on other injuries. He will get up to AAA and will be knocking on door of spot start or pen roll at MLB level. Good for him, people were always big on him and sometimes it takes time.

That is really what I was getting at, is when we throw out names people react to the name, but may not always look at the whole player. We can disagree about a player going forward, and as I said, I would take him for the right price, just like any player, but as Riverbrian said, it is going to cost much more than I would want to give up, hoping he returns to his one very good season. My issue with this player is that he really had 1.5 to 2 good seasons, depending on how you count 2020. Up to 2020 he was ehh, and last year he was just okay down the stretch, not someone I want to give up top prospects for. Sometimes that may be fatigue, or injury, but when he comes out the gate this year just as average, has a bWAR of 0.1 so far. Pitchers always scare me because they will fall off cliffs very quickly, and some learn how to change up their style, but that takes time most of the time, and some just fall apart never to be anywhere close to what they were. When a guy like this has only 1.5 amazing season out of his 6 seasons played I am not sold on them as they are the top end normally. One pitcher I point to a lot is Tim Lincecum, who from age 24 thru 27 seasons he was one of best in baseball, winning 2 cy youngs at 24 and 25. Looking like a future HOF, then age 28 season he lost it, and was never anywhere close to what he was prior to that. No saying player x above will be that, and I have not looked at all the underlying numbers, do not scout like that, but there is fear he may never regain what he did a couple of years ago.

I wanted to ask what would people be willing to trade for a player x. I feel sometimes we look at names and not look at actual output, even more so recent output when we value certain guys. So if a team came offering the following pitcher, how much do feel they would be worth. Career numbers: He is in his 6th season, 1 more year of team control after this one. 39 and 23 record. 3.29 ERA 572 innings pitched, FIP 3.04 11.3 k/9 with 4.48 k to bb ratio. Last season numbers: 12 and 8 record, 2.94 ERA 202 innings pitched FIP 3.14, 10.8 k/9 with 4.76 k to bb ratio. One note, from August on, he was 4-4 record, 77 innings, with about a 4.00 ERA about 9.7 k/9 and similar walk ratio This year, 4-4 record 3.97 ERA, 57 innings pitched, FIP 4.81 8.1 k/9 and 2.43 k to bb ratio. I am sure some may figure who I am talking about without looking, but the main question is first do you look at career numbers and hope he will get back to career numbers, so willing to give up more? They are good career numbers. Do look at the last 2 months of last year and what he has done this year and think that is the real guy going forward and offer much less? Do you think he falls somewhere in middle? If you did obtain him, where do you think he should slot in rotation? I personally, think the pitcher is trending in the wrong direction and do not have faith him returning to his peak, but I could be way off and he could bounce back to peak. What would you be willing to risk?

If it takes any of our top 10 prospects I am a no on Burns. He is not worth a top prospect hoping he can duplicate his outlier season. Joe Ryan has pitched better last season in half. Baily Ober has pitched better. Lopez has pitched better. Gray has pitched better. Varland is only one that has pitched worse, and it is not by much. We should not give up a top prospect for a guy that may not even slot as a guy to get a playoff start at this point. If he was on our roster, only reason he gets a start in playoffs is hope he has one of his good starts, which happens like 1 out of 4. In 10 starts this year he has 1 great, 2 good, 4 ehh, and 3 terrible.

I am a no on Burns, unless you give up little to get him. I know some on here think he is an ace, but he is not trending as an ace, but a guy that is living off his crazy good 2021 season, and pretty good 2020 season. 2022 start out similar to 2021, but trended downward. I am not saying he is a bust, he still has some very good starts, but I do not see him repeating 2021 ever again, and he is more likely what he has shown the last year of games. A guy that is more like a middle of road starter, not a top ace. His numbers so far this year, pretty much line up with his numbers the second half last year. Second half last year, he had 3.94 ERA, k/9 down, HR per at bat up, it got even worse in August and beyond. So far first 2 months this year, his k/9 down even more, and walks up. HR rate is up too. In 2021 he gave up a total of 7 HR the whole season, last year he gave up 23, this year so far 9. Can people stop acting like the 2021 season is his norm, and not the outlier? Yes, he will give you a good start here or there, but over last year and half, we have a few pitchers that have been better. Again, if we can get him for a middle of road prospect, sure, but no top guys for him.

To me it is not just about if they were "wrong" in signing or trading for a player, but who else do we have to step in and are they better? You point out to some starting pitchers that they held on to for awhile, but you do not point out who would have made those starts instead if they would have cut the player earlier on, and if that player would have done any better. Without pointing me to a clear easy replacement that was available at the time, it is hard to say they had a hard time admitting they were wrong. You point out Simmons and having different options at SS, but other than putting Polanco back at SS, what was their clear option, after we had Simmons. Yes, we had options of picking someone else, but the article is after we had the player not arguing we should have signed someone else. Lewis was hurt, and the next SS on the top prospect list was Wander Javier. So it was find someone off the junk pile, move Polanco back to SS, and use Arraez at 2nd full time, but he was filling in at 3rd and 2nd already with some time in LF. So who was our clear better choice during the season for Simmons? You also address the 2021 starters we held onto, but do you forget we used 16 different guys to start games, some as an opener, but still had 16 different guys start games that year. One of them was Joe Ryan after we traded for him when we gave up on season as well. So who would have been a better option, for the 2 you wanted cut earlier than was? My point is, to say we hold onto a player too long simply because we do not cut them when they struggle does not tell the whole story. Sometimes you hold onto who you have because you do not have current better options due to injuries, lack of MLB ready prospects.

Full disclosure, I have been big on Alex Kirilloff since we drafted him. Everything I read on him was he was going to be a hitter. Defense was secondary but he was expected to be a hitter of high average, with middle of road power, but an overall great hitter. He was moving quickly through the minors as a high school drafted player, but then injuries and COVID hit. It is crazy it took until his 5th year of pro ball for his wrist to pop up, being reports are he had a bone that was longer than it should have been. I also wonder why the doctors never addressed in the first surgery. AK had wasted years for himself. All that being said, whenever he has been healthy has shown that great ability to hit. He is not a Gallo or Kepler dead pull guy, like many hitters these days are. He can pull when pitch is inside, but he will go up the middle and opposite field, with power, as well. I am not saying he is as good of hitter as Mauer, but he has a bit of his approach willing to let the ball travel, but will still be aggressive on pitches inside for power too. He is still young, and the pro sample size is still small, but when he has not had a bothered wrist he has shown great abilities. What is best is so far he claims no wrist soreness or anything holding him back. If that holds up, he may be in the running for team MVP this year because he appear to be one of very few guys that will give great at bats every game. Yes, sample size small, but he has shown in the past he can be a stud. He will get pitched differently as year goes on, lets hope he adjusts. He is still only 25 and hopefully will have many years at this level hitting in middle of line up for Twins.

I have to say one of my favorite at-bats of the game was CC's single up the middle. He was down in count and was willing to just put the ball in play to try and get a hit. He flipped his bat out at the ball and hit a slow roller up the middle. We were, if not still are, leading the league in strike outs per game. The team clearly has a general plan of always hitting the ball hard no matter the count. This may be in part because the belief that hitting the ball soft will rarely result in hits. However, never putting the ball in play and striking out has a 0% chance of getting a hit. Even if it is like 10% chance of getting hit because too soft, that is still better than 0%. I am all for looking to hit ball hard before 2 strikes, and hate watching guys do check swings or taking defensive swings before 2 strikes, but after you get there, I like to see the get bat to ball approach and do whatever you can to make contact, even weak contact.

Overall I like Jax, but watching him last night it was crazy to see so many foul balls with 2 strikes until a weak contact hit to the right spot got the job done. Yes, he got hosed on the Otani walk, should have been strike 3, as it was a better pitch than a strike 3 on Twins just inning before. Is it bad luck when you cannot strike a guy out and he keeps fouling off pitches until he gets a soft hit over the infield head? I would say that is not bad luck, but not good pitching to finish a guy off when you have 2 strikes. The triple was not hard hit, but hit in right spot and guy was ready for the pitch. The 0-2 single was just a guy wanting to not strike out and get ball in play. Twins lack people that are willing to have a soft hit to avoid a strike out, so when we see it happen we think it is just luck that a soft hit fell. I wish our offense would learn how to not try to crush pitches on 2 strike counts but try to get ball in play more often.

Picking the right pen arm of the FA is like picking the floating rubber duck at kids carnivals. They all look pretty much the same as they go around, but until you pick one you do not know what you will get. Some get injured quickly, some have good starts and fade, some start slow and get better, and some just are not worth it. Pen arms are some of the most volatile positions around. I do find it interesting that the article praises Jax for being good and attacks Pagan for being bad, but overall numbers have been better for Pagan this year than Jax. Yes, Jax has had a lot more higher leverage, but really since end of April he has been down right bad. Yes, he has been giving up weak contact hits, but eventually you need to think about fact he is not getting the outs, and say it is not just bad luck. For years people would say Rogers was getting unlucky, this article mentions it that he may be getting unlucky again this year, how long can someone be unlucky before we just say, they are not getting the outs?

This was really the point I was trying to make in my post doing a comparison to Jax. I know Pagan was terrible overall last year, but this year he has had only a couple of blow ups. Sure, we would love a full pen of closer potential arms, but that just will not happen. I would understand if we cut him, but overall we need guys to eat up an inning or two when our high leverage guys have been used.

I believe MLB will bring in the challenge system next year, or year after. They will use it for a few years before going full robo umps. The league will want to ease in the use of the robo ump, but as they get used to it, the league will get full robo. I see no reason why not to do it if you have faith in the tech. The scorecard for umps has a huge flaw to it as well, as they give the 50/50 calls basically right either way it is call, only the balls well outside or inside the zone being wrong the wrong call. I get the job is hard, but on boarder line calls it is basically a coin flip, and the up is always considered right when the ball is thrown there. To make things worse, that is generally where the pitcher is trying to throw, the edge of the zone. So if they hit their spots the ump will always have the right call in the score card, even if it is technically the wrong call according to an ABS system.