Trov

I agree, and hope it happens in MLB soon. However, my concern is that MLB will still hold off and both hitters and pitchers will have issues when they come up. Both will get used to the robo zone, then come up to MLB and have to deal with a whole new zone.

Pitchers are by far the hardest to predict in the draft. They are hard to predict from year to year. Some guys look like future HOF then fall off a cliff, and some guys find late in career surges. Even the top pick guys that everyone has as a top pick fail, I point to Mark Appel, taken in top part of draft 2 times, number 1 overall, and barely made the majors at age 30 after being out of MLB minor leagues for a period of time. We all want top pitchers, but even spending high draft picks on them do not work out always. Just because this team has not developed Ace level guys, does not mean they have not managed to develop reliable pitching and many times later in draft.

You point something very interesting the robo ump affect. I do not know if the strike zone is any smaller than what the MLB zone should be, so it could be argued that the zone is just being called correctly. I did not read the article you speak about. However, it does make some sense that it means numbers are a bit inflated because those borderline pitches that robo ump calls balls, because they are balls, the MLB human umps will call strikes.

I fully agree 1 thru 3. However, I think Ryan can regain some form and be better than Ober. Now if Ryan does not return to form and continues to give up long balls like he is pitching BP then I would do Ober.

First, with 6 games soon against Cleveland, a little early to say we will make playoffs. I am hopeful, but lets get past those games. We lose 5 of 6 then we are fighting it out for division all over again. We win 5 of 6 and we are coasting into playoffs, not really but much clear path. If the Twins think resting will make foot better, then go for it, but the issue, to my understanding is very specific to each player and how it has affected them. He clearly is doing better of late, and resting may not get the results you want sometimes.

I was reading a different forum and a commenter brought up an interesting note about AAA this year. Specifically, that AAA is using robo umps and MLB is not. The post talked about walks being way up and that is leading to more hard contact because to avoid missing the corners the pitchers are working more of the middle. Personally, I think that is what baseball is looking for, more offense and balls in play less getting called strike 3 on a pitch you could not if you tried as a hitter. That aside this is not a post about if the robo umps should be brought to MLB but if they are not and stay in AAA will that hurt the development of the player. I point to both Julien and Wallner as two guys who played a decent amount in AAA this year, not a ton, but enough to get used to the robo umps. For those who are not aware, AAA has 3 days of full robo umps, and 3 days of challenge system. Both of the guys have been talked about their eye's at the plate. Julien has been about a 4 walks to every 5 k's over his minor league career, but at MLB level this year with 100 more plate appearances at MLB over AAA he has walked just 4 times more, but struck out over twice as much, 88 k at MLB level versus 42 at AAA. With 36 walks at MLB level, and 32 at AAA. The eye test for Julien is he has taken a lot of pitches for called strike 3 and many times not in the tv box, keeping in mind that is not tied to the robo ump type system. Wallner, walked at closer to a 1 walk per 2 k's rate, with in 305 plate appearances in AAA this year he walked 39 times k 87. At MLB he has 152 plate appearances, with 11 walks to 49 strike outs. Similar I feel like I have seen many called third strikes on balls out of the zone. Sometimes for both players it may not be strike 3 out of the zone but 1 or 2. The question I really have is, if the players start learning the robo ump zone just before MLB level, will that affect their ability at MLB because they will be taking those pitches that in AAA will get called a strike, but at MLB you never know and no way to get it right? Will this lead to guys coming up and taking too many borderline pitches for called strikes? Is it good they are taking those called strikes? Maybe there is comfort in knowing you were right and the ump was wrong? Yesterday I watched Lewis expand the zone on a 3-2 pitch way outside, was that because he was scared the ump would ring him up? Clearly that pitch would not have been, but you start to expand the zone because the umps are making calls you are not used to. Even more so, you are up at MLB level you want to impress, but then umps start taking bats out of hands while you watch, what in your experience in AAA would be a ball, get called for a strike 3. I want to make clear, I do not think all difference in walks and strike out numbers are due to this change in balls and strikes calls, but I think even the small sample I have seen with my own eyes is guys taking pitches for called strike 3 that maybe someone not trained in robo umps would look to foul off worried that ump will get it wrong. The issue with that is sometimes you expand the zone and make the job easy for the ump.

For the first round of games, Ober should not be on the 26 man roster, only because he will not start the first 3 games, and he should not be a top guy out of pen. We can add him to second series if we make it there. I personally do not think he will make any starts in playoffs, baring injures from others. He may be used for a long relief person but we really hope that is not needed. If Ryan is healthy no reason the rotation first round is not Lopez, Gray, and either Ryan or Maeda, and if in second round if we went three games the one that did not start in first round then back to top. I would want 1 emergency long relief guy of one of our current 6 starters, the other should not be on playoff roster in my opinion. I like Ober and think he is a fine pitcher, but he is pitching more than he ever has and had some struggles of late. All it takes is one bad inning and we lose a post season game.

We got a great 2020 season from Maeda, a okay 2021 until injury, and now some good starts this year. All for a bull pen pitcher and a guy that bounced around through several teams before he finally had some good time, a crazy good first half, but second half he has been below average guy, he is also almost 29 and basically still a rookie this season. We did give up a pick who could be something. Personally, I would take the starter for pen guy every time and not worry about it. I would not call this trade a loss at all. At worse it is a good trade for all.

Consetti has been hitting great this year, but he is old for his league. Unless he can tear it up next year at AA and stay behind the plate, I doubt he will get much push by the team. It is nice to see catchers hitting, but there is a reason he was a 4 year college player. It could be he was just a very late bloomer as he did not have any power until his last 2 years of college, but he also failed in both summer league seasons he played.

He is not on any lists that I know of, but in part that may be because this is his second year of full season and he was a 14th round pick out of college. My guess he will climb up a little this year, but will be a bit of an unknown prospect and most likely a future pen guy if he makes majors, but could surprise some.

There is more to building roster than just that, but who did Martin, Lee, and Stevenson face in their 14 plate appearances, I am guessing it was not a future lock for hall of fame like ones at the MLB level. However, I do agree we should look for moving Gallo out and Martin in, but not based on just last night.

There is more to signing a guy at 1 year of MLB service time to long term deal than just locking up. You lock yourself into known costs. The people that think we should just wait until his arb years are done, when he is 29, you run the risk of his arb years being more than you may have planned, which means he is doing great, but still means you may have less in budget. You can also get a year or two of FA time. I would agree with looking to lock him up if you can buy out a year or two of FA, but my guess he will not be on board unless it is for some bigger bucks. I also agree, doing it now would be a larger risk to us as he has not had a full pro year his whole career. He did pretty much play full years 2018 and 2019 in minors, but outside of that he has had many injures. I do worry a little that his walk to K ratio is getting a little out of hand, but overall I love what I have seen from him.

Agreed 100%, and exactly why the players have had issues with that system. We will use the prime years of these guys, then we will either trade them a year early or let them walk after arb years.

I think the issue that is highlighted is all the what if and when healthy stuff. I agree that Buck should only play if he can play CF, unless he is just raking. However, if AK comes back and back to what he was before the shoulder issue, we will have way too many guys we want to see hitting. Lewis should just stay at 3rd rest of year with CC at short. 2nd Julien against rh, and either Polanco or Salano against lefties. Salano has been too solid to just cut in my opinion. He is the glue kind of vet that you can count on for solid at bats and will help in playoffs. First, should be AK if healthy or whoever you feel can defend it and not be an auto out(GALLO). As for OF, Walner and Kepler are too hot to sit. So that leaves just CF, if not Buck, then Taylor is natural option due to defense and despite his lack luster overall offense he still has HR pop. Martin is raking in AAA and I would love to see him get called up to try out CF and if he can defend at average level and hit anywhere close to what he is doing AAA I think he would provide a nice boost. That is a lot of ifs though. I think it is nice that we can talk about the problem of having too many players we need to find at-bats for.

I think it depends on if they plan to use him in the playoff rotation or not. Of course that will depend on other injuries. If they do not plan to use him in playoff rotation, unless they would look to use him long relief in playoffs, if they feel he is nearing end of season do to too much use, then why not skip a start or shut him down completely? I am fine with a 6 man rotation to help rest the other guys overall too. However, if you want to use Ober in post season, you should either go 6 man with him or move him to pen now, if the team thinks the drop in production is clearly due to fatigue.

I would look to bring him back on a 1 to 2 year deal. I believe we have a few young guys that could step up if needed, and overall we have had some good health this year, outside the full missed season of one planned starter, we have not had many stints on IL. However, if those pile up we need as much depth as possible.

There are still plenty games to be a rival games. Rival games get built in fights for playoff spots late in years or in the playoffs, not games played in April.

It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets. He may go low years high value to show he can pitch again after a second TJ, or he may take big longer contract. I would look at a contract that pays him as a top DH, but with big incentives for innings pitched built in. Meaning if he can come back to pitch like he has, then he will get paid for that as well, but if he does not, then he will only be the DH he is. The only issue is that if a team is not willing to let him pitch again for some reason, then there may need to be an opt out. Personally, I would only go after him if you think he will pitch again, because right now we have a 15 mil a year DH in Buxton, so will he just ride the pine if we sign a 60 mil a year DH?

This will be interesting to see how it affects his FA situation. He still will be able to hit, but will he get the mega deal we expected, or will it be shorter term deal, or maybe one with incentives based on innings pitched each season.

I was going to comment similar. Over the last month he is slashing .375/.474/.656 with OPS of 1.131 those are crazy numbers. He has walked 12 times struck out 10 over that time, hit 5 HR, power has been his big nock, stole 7 bases caught 2 times. Those are numbers over last 28 days. I saw a couple of the HR and they were no doubters not wall scrapers too. Not sure if it is just SSS or something has clicked, but if he can do anything close to what he is doing right now at AAA he should get called up for stretch run and possibly help us in playoffs. Sometimes need to ride hot bats and even if that all this is, why not see what he could do up here.

I read an interesting ESPN article about the Angels and the last 20 years, most last 10, of failing as a team. They highlighted big name free agent signings that failed, failed drafts, even worse over last decade. It got me thinking about the Padres of recent years too and how both teams have tried to build through big trades, and big signings that have not paid off yet, and how some fans have begged for us to be like them. The Angels have spent the last decade trying to build around Trout(played his first full season 2012 at age 20, getting second in MVP and 8.7bwar) and recently Otani have been touted as best players of generations and possibly ever. However, the Angels have failed to build around them. Trout has been injured much of recent years, noting he is now on the bottom half of his prime, but when healthy still puts up great numbers. However, the team would go out and sign big name after big name in hopes of winning it all. Pitching was always their main downfall. They were never afraid of signing big money deals, but for whatever reason they never were able to get over the hump. They also were never willing to go full all in rebuild like Houston did. Looking at Padres, they were a bottom payroll team and losing team for several years. Going back to 2014 they were a team in a pitchers park with no real direction of a team. A mix of vets and young guys with some decent pitching but little offense. In 2015 they decided to jumpstart their team with some trades of big game James Sheilds, the upton brothers and signing Matt Kemp. The Upton brothers and Kemp did fine, but pitching failed them. More moves come, trades and signings but more losses mount. Two years of more loses and then out of no where Padres spend huge on Hosmer. Many questioned the deal at the time, and it never paid off, but showed things to come. Many trades were being made as well. 2019 Manny Machado signs a huge deal, but pitching is still lacking. Tatis Junior is all the talk of the team 20 year old that put up bwar of 4.6 as a rookie. They got him for James Shields from White Sox, always love throwing that in when talking about trading top prospects for aging pitchers. 2020 comes they make moves for Mike Clevenger, and finally things look up for team in the short 2020 season. 2021 they bring in new pitching, Snell, Musgrove, and Darvish, but overall the team fails. 2022 their pitching comes around and they make trade for Soto, but fall in playoffs, but things look up they were built to win now. Coming into 2023 they are getting Tatis back, all the pitching is returning, they sign Bogaerts to huge deal, they sign Wacha who had great start to season. However, they are 6 games below .500 and no real chance of making playoffs. They have huge money invested for years, and does not appear to be much farm system to speak of. Padres may bounce back next year as health to pitching may help, but with not much farm system they are been grabbing at scraps. They sold everything to win now, and risked it all on every one having career years. Their bullpen is overall bad, outside of free agent to be Hader. They can go out and sign more guys, but trades will be hard to do now. Both teams have tried to win with making trades and free agent signings only to have little results with at best 1 good year. It is a way to build a team, but neither team, the Angels even more so, have shown much direction. The Padres in last 3 years have said we are all in and we do not care, but as each year passes they farm system is depleted, and their contracts will start to look worse and worse. It is a caution that spending big money and making big trades will not always equal success. Even brining in young stars that are best in the world does not mean you will win long term. Building a team, in my opinion requires depth at the farm system, something the Twins have shown this year. As injuries set in this year, or poor play of some others, we had guys to turn to, and now we are facing too many guys that deserve at bats, which is a good thing. Any fans that want the Twins to trade off all top prospects and buy all top free agents should look at these teams of what could go wrong. There are other teams that have made big signing that go no where too, but these teams have had interesting attempts over last 10 years.

When Buck is hitting like MVP he can DH, but when he is not, he needs to play in field. There was many debates about DH for ex amount of games or CF for 81 games, making assumptions that he would stay healthy as a DH. I argued that most of his injuries in his history has not been from playing the OF, but from running bases and hitting. Yes, he has had some injuries from playing OF, but as shown again this year, he will get injured just hitting, so taking away what he does best in trying to get him to be just a hitter really is not best for club. Hopefully he can play CF, but unless he can hit at MVP level, he should not be taking DH at bats from guys that are hitting better than he is. Just because he is getting paid like he is, we should not just send him out there to fail for us. I hope he can play CF even as a part time situation. Give him a few games out there to see if he can do it playoff time, because him manning CF at his normal level, and hitting even average will be best for us.

I remember early in 2019 it was pointed out the aggressive swinging of the team early in counts. Kepler has been doing that. I have always said if you go up looking for a particular pitch swing no matter the count. What I have liked about Kepler right now is he is willing to drive outside pitches to LC gap, where he used take those pitches more often looking for the inside pitch.

Outside of Otani there is nothing too great in FA wise to fit the timeline of payroll. Yes, we have some cheaper guys next couple of years, but the better they do, the more they will cost us even in the 3 years of arb years. There are a couple of middle of road pitchers that will be looking for 4 to 6 year deals is my guess. Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urías, Eduardo Rodriguez are the top starters that would be looking to get new big deals. Kershaw would be a type to try to sign to a 1 or 2 year big money deal, but he is never likely to leave Dodgers. For the right price I would be willing to sign any of those guys, but most will be looking for longer term deals that could be an issue at end of the deal when we will need to start to pay guys like Lewis. There are no Verlander/Scherzer type starters that are older and will take bigger 1 to 2 year deals, or guys that need to do prove it type deals outside of Severino from Yankees, he has been terrible this year after looking like a top arm for years. Do we want to gamble on that? In terms of pen arms, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, are all some end of pen options that could be had on 1 to 2 year deals, but they are all aging and have had struggles at times in past, bouncing back this year, but any one of them could fall off the cliff too. I would be fine with going after 1 or 2 of them on 1 to 2 year deals. Hader I would be willing to look at 3 year deal but I never want to give a relief guy more than that. In terms of trades too early to speculate on that. The issue with trades of a top starting pitcher will be hard to do because it will require giving up some of young top talent, that allows us to have a low payroll. Someone wrote about going all in for Otani, on a crazy high per year short term deal, would he go for it? If so, I would be all in on that idea, but my guess he will take the longer term super high value deal than short term high annual value.

Keep in mind 3 of the guys drafted ahead of Jenkins are college guys, of which they all will likely lose their prospect status before Jenkins even makes Majors, unless Jenkins just goes ham next year. Skene was mentioned if needed could have just went right to majors, only reason he will be held back is that Pirates may want to control him longer. That is the thing with rankings too is as guys fall off others move up, and sometimes the top whatever are a lot weaker top whatever because the top say 5 to 10 all moved off the list, so a guy that was say top 20 now may be a top 10 but did nothing to move up other than no get worse.