Trov

Over the off-season there were some articles and post about how the Padres are a smaller market than the Twins, but spending like the big market teams. This upset many Twins fans on here saying we can spend more. The idea is the more you spend, the more you win, because you get the higher priced talent. This year, our 2 highest paid players are doing terrible, in comparison to what we want. Buxton and CC are both well below expectations. Despite not playing well, we are tied for first, mainly on our pitching keeping us in games, and despite leading our division in runs scored, our offense just looks terrible most nights, and really seems to be trending down. However, despite that, the Padres are doing even worse. Some arguments can be made to the division, but unlike years past where division plays a much larger roll, this year is first year every team plays every team and division games are cut down a bit. The Padres record is 1 win better than the Tigers. With getting no offense from catcher, they even went to our cast off Gary Sanchez, who has been by far their best offensive catcher. There offense is top heavy, which is to be expected based on their plan of spending big and bring in top end talent. There big signing this year, Bogarts is hitting league average basically. Soto, the big trade last year, and Tatis are doing what you would expect. Machado is having very much a down year, below league average. Really outside of Soto and Tatis, the rest of the team has been about average to below average to way below average. Aaron Nola, who has started 51 game at catcher is hitting worse than pitchers used to. What makes things worse for their offense is that they have no one in the wings you can call up to fill in. They are outscoring their opponents at a plus 23 clip, and scored 364 runs. Twins have outscored opponents at plus 31 and scored 353. So really our offenses are very close. Padres have 2 guys really carrying the load, we have had different guys at different stretches, but our 2 highest paid offense guys are letting us down. There highest paid guys some are letting them down, some are doing what you expect. The Padres starting pitching has been similar to Twins, some good guys with bounce back seasons of guys, but they have had some regression of Musgrove. They also have a top closer in Hader, having a bounce back season. However, it looks like their pen is really dropping the ball compared to Twins pen. Getting back to the question, should the Twins spend like the Padres. I have always said, spending to just spend is dumb, and you need to spend on the right guys. Twins have signed two huge long term contracts on hitters last 2 years. This year both have let us down. Padres have spent huge on several guys over the years, between contracts on free agents, Machado, Hosmer, Darvish, Boegarts. Hosmer was terrible and was dumped. Machado has had good years and bad years, this year a down year. Darvish ups and downs as well. Boegarts this year has been average hitter, but when you are paying what you are you want more than average generally. Tatis was traded for, a steal of giving up Shields, but other trades over the years has required the Padres give up a lot of prospects and depth to load up the current roster. Snell, Myers, who has since left, Soto, and others. They have extended some with contracts. Snell has bounced back, and Soto is doing Soto things. I would say, if we can clearly point to guys that we think will be long term value, we should spend like the Padres, but if we keep having as many swings and misses as Padres, I would not want to keep spending like them. The Padres have gone all in to win now, and they are not. They have no prospects ready to come up, because they have shipped anyone with value out. I am not a fan of trying to just build through big FA and trades. I agree you need to do them from time to time to fill that final hole or two, but Padres have almost no home grown talent, Tatis is only one that came up through system after trade for him. Austin Nola, the should be DFA catcher did come up through system as well. The one issue with so much top end talent is if they struggle at all, or you get injuries, your team generally has no one else to go with. I am a fan of a higher floor across the board, and hope for some peak seasons all at once. It is possible the Padres turn it around, but as we complain about our team doing terrible, the Padres record is worse, and Mets, who have spent more than any team last few years have been even worse. On the reverse side, the Rangers, who spent a ton the last 2 years, are in first place in their division with 50 wins. All their big signings are paying off this year, with Siemien and Seagar putting up big numbers, Seagar MVP type. Evaldi is doing amazing so far, and DeGrom, before his injury for being out the season was doing DeGrom things. However, they are also supported by career year of Travis Jankowski, by far doing better than any year he has played. Also career years from other roll players that came up through their system. The Rangers, thought they had a good core, and needed to add and they did. Padres have been trying to bring in top guys for years, and yet to see success. It is possible the career years and hot play in Texas drops off, and the poor years get turned around in Mets and Padres, just as Twins top paid guys bounce back too. I would say we do not need to spend like other teams, if we can spend smart.

I ask the question because I think sometimes we get sold too quickly, good and bad, on short sample sizes. I also think, when a player has a good stretch, we too often will say but what if that is the norm for the player, and will given more chances for longer periods. I think with all the data now, we can break down hot streaks and slumps more than ever before, to really drive down to who the real player is. Sometimes there are outliers that "luck" really is not playing a factor but the player is the outlier. One player that Twins fans on here really wanted us to sell some or many of prospects for was Corbin Burnes. They would point out his basically 2 year peak run as why he was an ace and why we needed him, and he would put us over the top. Names like Lewis, Lee, E-Rod, and other top names were floated. His 2020 to mid 2022 run was nothing short of amazing. HOF stretch of run for basically 2 full seasons worth of games, as the 2020 season was 60 games, and the second half of 2022 was not good, and he was blamed for the fall of the Brewers in 2022. He was 25 thru 27 seasons. He time prior to 2020 and since second half of 2022 have been basically an average pitcher, with some very good games, very bad games but most just end of rotation starter numbers, far from the super ace numbers he had for about a 50 game stretch. He has played 152 games, started 91 games in his career, not starting really until 2020 season. So is Burns his 50 game super ace, or his 102, 41 game middle of road starter, or somewhere in between? Will he get closer to his peak? He is not alone in these questions. Matt Harvey exploded on the scene in 2012, with 10 starts and carried that into 2013, missing 2014 due to injury, but then 2015 doing what he did in 2013. Every thought he would be HOF bound just dominating. Then he fell off a cliff and for 6 years getting chances to pitch over and over, in hopes he could be even close to his 2015 and prior self. There are many more we can point to. Hitters get less of a leash it would seem, but we still give them time to bounce back after peak years. I think we will quickly cast off prospects if they do not explode on the scene, unless they were highly touted prior to promotions. Take Luis Arraez. He was never a highly touted player, poor defense, no power, and lack of speed. Basically, he was just a bat that could hit singles around the field. Many fans here, were always waiting for the lack of power and "unsustainable" BABIP, to bring him back to earth. He has always been an outlier. His BABIP is well above league average, and his hard hit rate well below league average, this year much lower than his average with Twins. When will he just be accepted as an outlier? Brent Rooker started this year off to super hot start, but has since cooled off. Many on here were writing if we screwed up on passing on him, but now looks like April was just a SSS. Since April he has been unplayable basically, but some are hoping he could be what he was for 1 month in his career, or stints in AAA. A couple of people were mad we let Akil Baddoo go, because he had some hot stretches in his first season with Detroit, but since he has been basically what we already have in many OF. Is Baddoo the rookie numbers he put up in stretches, or is he what he has been since? Sadly, sometimes rookie numbers are the best you get from a player at MLB level. Really, my question is, how long do we need to see who a player is before we believe them? Yes, it is generally based on looking at history, of other players, or that player themselves. Generally, if a player has a high prospect rank we give them more time to prove it, but if it is a low prospect rank we require a longer stretch. Sometimes a vet after years of poor play do have a bounce back year or two and it gives hope for others that maybe they will play above what they did for stretches. I think many times for pitchers it is a new pitch is learned, and for hitters a new approach or swing is developed, but many times when a vet tries to come back under those situations it is SSS again. We are seeing some HOF pitchers maybe reaching end of their run. Mainly Verlander, who is having worst year since 2017, but we saw a run from 2014 to 2017 where they thought he was done or trending toward end of his career, only to still win Cy Young at age 39. Is he done, or just having a rough run? Really it is GM's that get paid to figure that stuff out, but it is an interesting question for many players.

Personally, I pay no attention to the game for about 20 years now. Even when it meant something, I still did not care. The players for the most part do not care, unless they get a bonus for it. Most pitchers opt out to be ready for the second half, or they just pitched on Sunday anyways. The star hitters do not finish the game. The fact that 1 player from each team needs to go, this will lead to so many more snubs.

I thought I was the only one not seeing it.

I fully agree with the Kepler out move, and agree Popkins can go too, but I rarely blame a hitting coach for vetrans struggling. Vets have been doing it for years, a young coach should not be the cause of their issues, but it is also the young coach is not able to help them fix the issues. Either because he is younger than some of them, or because he just is not able to identify the issue.

I need to push back on Cossetti a bit. He had great time in low A for just over a month, where he was 2 years older than average player. Moved up and hitting decent, but still a year older than average player. You have him on there, but Lee does not make the list at all, which is fine as he has been okay as well, heating up lately, but Lee is at AA 2.5 years younger than average player. Cossetti is a year older than Lee and yet to sniff AA. Not discounting what he did for a month in low A, but if you really look at age and level, Cossetti, in my mind, is having not that great of a year. I am not saying Lee for sure is better, just used him as example. E-Rod is having a better time at high A and is 3 years younger than Cossetti. Sometimes I think if guys do better than expected, we say they are doing well, where if a guy is doing about the same, but lower than expected we say they are struggling, which may be true.

Personally, I feel the approach of the team is not the best, or most fun to watch, but they are in the middle of league in runs scored, 18th, but only 10 runs separate 18 and 14. We lead our division in runs scored, but the team gets attacked when other teams strike out less and gets runs across without the HR. The point of the game is to score runs, and they are not the best in the league, but they are the best in the division. Is it sustainable? Maybe not. I sure wish they would change things up a bit, if nothing else for entertainment. The scarier thing is it seems they are missing pitches in the zone at a huge clip is means they are even missing the mistake pitches middle middle too much as well.

He is putting up the numbers he did last year before his knee injury now. Remember he not only had the knee injury last year, but was on shelf part of this year I believe with a core muscle issue. I am not surprised he started off slow, as someone who has had an ACL repair much of when you are coming back is mental, but then you throw in core muscle injury that will really affect your swing. I am hoping he has figured it back out and gets moved up to AA some time second half.

I agree they all had better hitting stretches than Kepler, and I am not a big Kepler fan, but if you look just a slightly better bats over Kepler, you ignore the other half the game, that of defense. Kepler is a very good defender, and ones you listed are all worse than Kepler and some by far much worse on defense. I know many like to look at the offense, because you can quantify it easy, compared to defense, but defense should not be overlooked.

Happy to see E-Rod starting to heat up too. I was not too worried about him, being he was coming off knee injury then had core issue early on. He seems to be heading back in the right direction as well. I would not ask if he was SSS heating up because he has shown the ability in the past.

Is Sabato just on a SSS hot streak, or has he figured something out? I know he has fallen off all prospect lists, but over last 11 games he is on a very hot streak. He has not played much this year, only 21 games, and only 6 before June. However, since June 6th, he has a .500 OBP, walking more than striking out, only 2 HR, but 7 doubles in 54 plate appearances, but only 38 at bats due to all the walks. I hope it is something just started clicking for him and he can be something down the road, but need to see this carry for longer than a couple of weeks. To me the more walks than K's is the important part though. If you include all of June he still has more walks than K's. His slugging on the year is not what you want from him, but clearly he was injured and maybe will start showing some growth.

The constant platooning of guys is one thing I am greatly against. I am for it in certain guys and situations, but I hate when you have a kid you want to be a star, and expect will be one, and you never give them a chance to be one. If you look at AK's career splits at MLB level, could not find minor levels, but he is not terrible, this year has not been great, but how can you expect him to be better if you never let him do it? He seems like the type that should be able to hold his own against same side pitchers because he is willing to hit other way, so the breaking pitches away from him will not be something he will roll over or swing through much. You cannot know who your stars will be if you never give them a chance.

Sadly he will not likely get regular at-bats with us at MLB level. Buck is taking up DH with what appears to be no plans ever to return him to OF. AK is at 1B, but could move to OF. So possible to move AK to OF get get Williams a chance at MLB level sometime.

I hate when people evaluate trades based just on the players involved. I say this because roster building is just not that simple. If we did not make the trade for Lopez, we would be having SWR, Winder, Sanchez, or some combo of guys doing pen games for our 5th starter right now. Lopez just had a great start, in a Twins loss, but not his fault. But really without Lopez in our rotation right now we would be pretty bad off and everyone would be begging for a trade for a starter. Assuming Arraez would have put up same numbers with Twins this year, not sure if he would, but he still would be doing well, he would have maybe helped us a few games. Would he be playing 2nd or 1st mainly for us? I do not know, but if he is in the line up, someone else is out, which right now would have been a good thing. However, we have much more depth in our system of MLB ready or hopefully in near future, that can play 1st and 2nd, more than we have MLB ready starting pitching. I love Arraez and he is fun to watch. He does not fit the current Twins offense approach, not saying that our current approach is good, but our hope is that in next year or two we will hopefully have someone close to or better hitting at 2nd and 1st base. Sure, they will not have the same average, but their OPS will be similar or better, is the hope. Time will tell. It is too early to judge the trade, and if you look at just players involved, you are short changing the fact the organization hopes Lee and AK will be taking the positions Arraez would most likely be playing for them, and the hope both will be overall better on both sides of the ball. Arraez is still a super talent, do not get me wrong, but we dealt from a position of depth, to a team with depth. We both had needs and it fit perfect. I do not agree you cannot look at the extension as part of the value assessment either because we could not have signed Lopez to an extension without the trade for him, at best we would have had to sign him in FA, which may not have happened.

Yes, Cano is putting up insane numbers in Baltimore, and maybe he will sustain that, but who saw it coming? I mean he always had stuff, but he could not find the strike zone consistently. Now, he is not walking anyone. Until this year, he walked about as many as he struck out. This year he is not walking anyone. I am not saying he will revert back, he may not, but who would have expected him from going career average of like 8 walks per 9 to 0.6. Clearly Baltimore found something, just as they did when they moved Lopez into the pen, but will it be for a career or will league adjust?

I was wondering the same thing about him and CF. I know his arm is not the strongest, which could be an issue in CF, but if he can get on base at high clip and cover enough ground he may be the CF in the near future. Not saying this year, unless he is lighting it up later, but looking into next year CF is a big question with the looks that Buck is never getting back out there.

I think what we have seen from the Twins is nothing is settled, but Lewis should be there for hopefully many years to come. Even if Miranda gets back to hitting like he has shown, his defense is terrible compared to Lewis. If Lewis in CC and play the level of defense they have shown, we may need to start looking for ground ball pitchers.

It is unlikely he stays at 2nd base if he sticks with the team. I expect Lewis, Lee, and Correa to make up some combo of 3rd ss and 2nd primary positions for hopefully years to come. Unless one of them get moved to OF. If not, they should hopefully get the majority of the time in those spots. This is also why you cannot always count on guys coming up and being MLB level guys.

You can never look at each trade in a vacuum of these guys for that guy(s), and who won trade. You have to pay attention to other moves made or not made, who else was in system and so on. Looking at Steer, he has shown good offense, something we knew he had, but also shown poor defense. bWAR has him negative at defense playing 3rd, 1st, and DH this year. He maybe would have played some 2nd if we kept him. Would his offensive numbers slotting in at 2nd for who we have put out may have been nice, but who knows what defense he would have brought. Right now, he would not be in our starting lineup though, because Buck has DH locked up, AK or Gallo have 1b locked up, Steer could get games against lefties some times, and Lewis will have 3rd mostly locked down. So where does Steer play for us, or who would you want to get moved out for Steer? CES may very well mash, but again, he plays basically no defense. He is playing mostly 1b for Reds AAA team, and that is not great. He is all offense, and his k-rate is a little scary. He may turn out to be one of those AAAA players that when facing MLB level pitching his K-rate becomes a big concern, we will see. Either way, unless he is a superstar hitter, he would again most likely slot behind guys we have already. Keeping in mind for both Steer and CES, Lee is in the wings too. Will the trade haunt? No, it will not in my opinion. The only thing you can really be upset about is that we did not get much in return, and maybe could have flipped them for something during off-season. However, I am not seeing either being that much better than who we have that I would be like darn what could have been. Maybe CES becomes a hitting superstar, but I just have a feeling he will struggle at MLB level, not many guys that strike out at a rate of about 33% at minor league level improve at MLB level. If he cannot keep up his very high BABIP at MLB level when he gets called up, he will struggle badly and since he offers no defense he will have less value.

Great game for Lewis. I did not see his first at-bat, but his HR was a great 2 strike approach. He hit a nice liner to right that carried just far enough. His last at-bat was also great approach. He said he was looking for the slider and hit it right back up the middle. I know he has very small amount of time in majors and even high minors constantly coming off injuries, but every thing I have see at the plate with him I like. He is not just trying to hit HR or pull the ball but has an actual plan up there and adjusts to the count. I know he will rarely play back to back games for awhile but will look forward to every game he plays. The ump yesterday had a terrible zone. Not sure what his score card was, but he had a few very bad calls, and some in big situations.

Wallner will get his chance next year most likely. He will keep getting chances as guys get hurt and what not, but his lack of defense will be something that holds him back. The fact Buck is now a DH and appears will never play OF again, I am hoping I am wrong, this takes away the DH from Wallner. He will either need to improve greatly, or be such an extremely good hitter we will deal with the bad defense.

He has shown there is a good chance he will end up on 40 man during this year, depending on other injuries. He will get up to AAA and will be knocking on door of spot start or pen roll at MLB level. Good for him, people were always big on him and sometimes it takes time.

If it takes any of our top 10 prospects I am a no on Burns. He is not worth a top prospect hoping he can duplicate his outlier season. Joe Ryan has pitched better last season in half. Baily Ober has pitched better. Lopez has pitched better. Gray has pitched better. Varland is only one that has pitched worse, and it is not by much. We should not give up a top prospect for a guy that may not even slot as a guy to get a playoff start at this point. If he was on our roster, only reason he gets a start in playoffs is hope he has one of his good starts, which happens like 1 out of 4. In 10 starts this year he has 1 great, 2 good, 4 ehh, and 3 terrible.

I am a no on Burns, unless you give up little to get him. I know some on here think he is an ace, but he is not trending as an ace, but a guy that is living off his crazy good 2021 season, and pretty good 2020 season. 2022 start out similar to 2021, but trended downward. I am not saying he is a bust, he still has some very good starts, but I do not see him repeating 2021 ever again, and he is more likely what he has shown the last year of games. A guy that is more like a middle of road starter, not a top ace. His numbers so far this year, pretty much line up with his numbers the second half last year. Second half last year, he had 3.94 ERA, k/9 down, HR per at bat up, it got even worse in August and beyond. So far first 2 months this year, his k/9 down even more, and walks up. HR rate is up too. In 2021 he gave up a total of 7 HR the whole season, last year he gave up 23, this year so far 9. Can people stop acting like the 2021 season is his norm, and not the outlier? Yes, he will give you a good start here or there, but over last year and half, we have a few pitchers that have been better. Again, if we can get him for a middle of road prospect, sure, but no top guys for him.

To me it is not just about if they were "wrong" in signing or trading for a player, but who else do we have to step in and are they better? You point out to some starting pitchers that they held on to for awhile, but you do not point out who would have made those starts instead if they would have cut the player earlier on, and if that player would have done any better. Without pointing me to a clear easy replacement that was available at the time, it is hard to say they had a hard time admitting they were wrong. You point out Simmons and having different options at SS, but other than putting Polanco back at SS, what was their clear option, after we had Simmons. Yes, we had options of picking someone else, but the article is after we had the player not arguing we should have signed someone else. Lewis was hurt, and the next SS on the top prospect list was Wander Javier. So it was find someone off the junk pile, move Polanco back to SS, and use Arraez at 2nd full time, but he was filling in at 3rd and 2nd already with some time in LF. So who was our clear better choice during the season for Simmons? You also address the 2021 starters we held onto, but do you forget we used 16 different guys to start games, some as an opener, but still had 16 different guys start games that year. One of them was Joe Ryan after we traded for him when we gave up on season as well. So who would have been a better option, for the 2 you wanted cut earlier than was? My point is, to say we hold onto a player too long simply because we do not cut them when they struggle does not tell the whole story. Sometimes you hold onto who you have because you do not have current better options due to injuries, lack of MLB ready prospects.