Trov

Is the Keuchel pen suggestion a joke? He will get another start or two, and maybe he shows he can help us seal up the division but no way do I want him on the post season roster. Other than being left handed, he has nothing going for him. He walks too many, strikes out no one. Sure, we could get lucky if he came in with runners on for a double play, but he has 0 k's in 36 batters faced so far this year. Yes, he did well overall in 32 innings in the minors, but so far against MLB hitters he still looks cooked to me.

I know the second paragraph is a bit of a joke, pointing out they where traded, in part due to all our depth. However, to answer the question, if we still had them, Steer and CES would still be in minors and Urshela would be here instead of farmer or castro most likely. Arraez would be playing 1B instead of Salano most likely. CES would be about 5th on the 3rd base depth chart. He would be crushing in AAA but just as he has done in Reds he would be struggling so we would have sent him down. CES in SSS is putting up worse numbers than Gallo.

I think you need to read up on how the 40 man roster works. With neither Prato or Severino on the 40 man roster, both would need to be put on the 40 man roster to be able to be called up in September. This would mean either putting 2 people on the 60 day or DFA 2 guys. I could see Gallo getting DFA, but unlikely anyone else. In addition, if Gallo does get DFA it is unlikely for either of those guys. As for next year, maybe they get added, when other moves get done, but highly unlikely they get added this year.

Every year we talk about how Twins can, and maybe should, spend more on the roster. Fans go back and forth on it. The argument for spending is more you spend the more you win. Arguments against it is that you get tied to players and may spend wrong. There are years where the highest payrolls win the World Series, and years where low payroll win. Looking at this year, the highest payroll, by far is the New York Mets, at 344 mil. They have sold off some of their high priced guys after being below .500 and well out of playoff contention. Next is New York Yankees, who pretty much stood pat at deadline and are in last place in their division, still just above .500 but odds of making playoffs not good. Their payroll comes in at 279 mil. Next is a team compared to Twins by some, the San Deigo Padres, at 252 Mil. They are also below .500 and not likely to make playoffs. They also have sold much of their farm system to load up on talent in recent years. After those top three the playoff bound teams start coming in. the next four in order are Rangers 247 mil, Phillies 245 mil(wild card team most likely) Dodgers 238, and Houston 236(most likely a wild card team) The rangers spent big last year too, but failed to make playoffs. The other three made deep playoff runs, but one thing if you look deep into the roster development for all four teams, their teams were not just built from FA, but from many internal minor league players that came up, and each had traded for or signed big name FA as well. Houston big name signing Jose Abreu has actually been a negative war player. Angels come in just behind the Houston on payroll at 235 mil, but much of that payroll has been injured. They got off to hot start looking like a playoff team, then Trout, and Rondon do what they do and get hurt. Toronto comes in next at 213 mil, and they are fighting for a wild card spot 8.5 out of first but in the wild right now. Atlanta is at 205 mil, and crushing their division up 11.5 over Phillies. The next three teams are all fighting for playoff spots, Giants at 186, Cubs at 185, and Boston at 180. All are fighting for wild card, and cubs trying to win division too. Rockies are next just above league average at 169 mil. They are dead last in division, but one of their highest paid players has been hurt much of year. White Sox come in just below the league average payroll at 162 mil, and sporting a 4th place record and sold at deadline. Twins are next at 154, holding first place being only non selling team in division. Their highest paid players on offense have been some of the least valuable players as well. Just behind Twins at 152 mil is St. Louis, a last place team. Seattle is at 134 mil, fighting for wild card spot, with a slightly better win percentage than Twins. Milwaukee at 124 mil are in first place. Detroit at 121 mil are in third place with little chance of making playoffs. Diamondbacks at 118 started off super hot, but after break have fallen off cliff, dropping out of any playoff chances. Miami is at 101 mil fighting for wild card. The bottom 8 teams are a mixed bag. The Reds at 93 mil have surprised many with a hot stretch and was in first place for a bit. They have cooled off still fighting for wild card spot, but their top paid players are not the reason for the surge. The nationals come in at 93 mil as well, and have been near bottom of division all year. KC is at 90 mil, being one of worst teams all year. Cleveland comes in at 88 mil and has been neck and neck with Twins most of year, but sold at deadline. Next two are Tampa at 78 mil and Baltimore at 70 mil. Tampa surged to huge lead at beginning of year, then dropped back to earth in middle months. Baltimore built off of what last year brought and just kept going with their young hitters carrying the team to an AL leading record. Pittsburgh is 29th in payroll at 68 mil, started off hot being in first place in May, but since they have been what was expected, injuries did not help, but they sold at deadline. Then there is Oakland who is doing a real life Major League by actively trying to lose it would seem to force their way out of town. They have a payroll of 58 mil. Not even sure how they got their. A deeper dive into how the high priced players could open some more info, but it is interesting that this year, the top 3 payrolls are not likely to make playoffs, and only the Yankees can point to injury of their top guy, but it shows how lack of depth they really had, even paying Hicks to play now for Baltimore, where he is playing much better for them than he did for New York this year. Other teams have also under performed. Then you have the run of 10 teams in top half of payrolls all either clearly in, or fighting for a playoff spot. Next teams around league average are a mixed bag, either terrible or fighting for first place. Then there are the few very lost payroll teams among best records in league. When you look at how much money is on IL, Angles lead league with 101 mil currently on IL, mostly from Trout and Rondon. Yankees have 80 mil, and had Judge out for a long time as well. Those are the only teams on the high end of payroll that have 25% of payroll on IL. To sum up, high payroll this year, does not fully equate to wins, as the three highest are not making playoffs. However, higher overall payroll seems to help winning as the rest of the above average payrolls, outside of Rockies who are just above average, all are either well on way to playoffs or fighting for it. On the bottom half of payroll, a few teams are fighting for playoff spots, but most are in divisions were no one is paying huge sums. The AL central does not have 1 team in top half of payrolls, with White Sox just below average, and 8 mil more than Twins. Clearly it did not work well for Sox this year. The NL central has 1 team in top half, the Cubs, outside of that everyone has payroll below the Twins. So when compared to teams in the division, Twins are second in payroll, close to Sox, beating them badly, but barely above Cleveland who are last in division in payroll. The NL central the rankings of payroll and standings are a bit all over the place. Pirates are well last in payroll, and tied with Cards for last place, but the Cards are second in payroll behind Cubs. Cubs are essentially tied with Reds for second 3.5 behind Brewers. Then the 2 way low payroll to win ratio of Tampa and Baltimore. Rays are generally always low and have been a good team for years. Baltimore is doing it with young kids that are crushing getting league min. I think generally higher payroll will generally result in more wins, but clearly that is not always the fact. Really, if you look at the Twins, the high priced guys outside some pitching, they are not carrying the team, but the younger guys have been. This overall makes sense when you look at how things work. Even if you are not going out buying big name FA, when you have a controlled guy in arbitration you need to pay more for their production they give you. So even if you have younger team overall, if they are in arbitration years, they will cost you more if they perform well. So no matter how a roster is built if it is built by bring up guys through system and retaining them through arbitration years, or bringing in a ton of high priced FA, you will be spending more. Baltimore will need to raise payroll in a couple of years or trade away the young guys making league min that are carrying their team. However, I would also say, that just trying to trade for and buy FA will not equal wins either. Padres and Mets have shown that can be an issue. Part of the question is, does payroll equal wins, or will wins equal payroll to maintain?

If AK cannot return to form, and Lee gets hot quickly, then the move makes some sense, but that is a lot of ifs. However, Lee will needed to be added to 40 man roster in next two weeks, or someone will have to get injured in September and cannot return is my understanding of the rules. The Twins will only add Lee to 40 man if they know for sure they will call him up, because they will not want to DFA someone just for the chance Lee will contribute. That means he has 2 weeks to show he would contribute and then I could see a Lee for Gallo swap, but keep in mind some other guys may be coming off 60 man IL soon, which will complicate the 40 man roster situation.

This was the same debate we had with Polanco at SS years ago. Do we deal with subpar defense for better offense? For this year, I would say overall yes, because we do not have a clear better option, but long term no because we should have better options on defense with similar offense profile. 2nd should be filled by Lee or Lewis with the other playing 3rd for years to come, or until CC needs to move to 3rd, but either way 2nd should be filled by one of them. Julien should be moved off 2nd, or we should look to shop him like we did Arraez. I know people went crazy for Julien after his crazy hot stretch, but if you go outside his crazy hot stretch in July he has been just slightly above average, and in August he has been well below average at the plate. Clearly adjustments against him has been made, and he needs to adjust. I never go head over heals for rookies that have a hot stretch SSS. I am not saying he will not be a good hitter, he has all the makings of it, but there are many a hitter we over value in rookie years. I do hope umps stop ringing him up on balls clearly outside the zone. Many strike outs are on called strike 3 when they are well outside the box on the broadcast. Many times on pitches way inside or outside. Maybe getting the robo umps or challenges next year will help that.

I know wins are not something to care too much about, but I still think voters look at it a little bit. Cole or Eovaldi will get the Cy young, barring a huge drop off by both. Cole has better numbers as well, he has more games pitched, strike outs, and lower ERA. Eovaldi is best pitcher on one of best teams, voters care about that too. Sonny should be talked about, but he started off super hot, then leveled off a bit and no run support and bad pen outings cost him some. If he ends as hot as he started he will get votes, but Lopez is recently been the top guy in our rotation.

SWR has been pitching much better over last month or so. His walks are still up but he is limiting the damage overall. I am hopeful whatever led to his early struggles this year is going away and he can be someone we can count on next year when needed.

Not sure if TD editors or the authors do the links to baseball reference pages, but the Austin Martin link is not to the Twins Austin Martin. The link on this page takes you to an Austin Martin a relief pitcher pitching for Goshin College in Indiana. That particular Austin Martin did not have a good season pitching either.

For all we know they have behind the scenes and he was been terrible? People underestimate how valuable a good first baseman can be, and how a bad one can cost a ton of runs. I agree with the idea, but it is possible they have given him reps there in practice and he has been terrible. I think in the off-season they need to make him learn the position more, because we have too many good hitting and much better defending infielders ready to push him.

I do not understand how baseball has changed so much when it comes to players like him and Kyle Schwarber continue to get paid and play as much as they do. I get it that HR have huge value in the game, and so when you can do it, we do not care how much they hit nothing but HR. Personally, I find their style of hitting boring and not worth watching. I hate just watching either HR or strike out for most part. I believe MLB is trying to get more entertainment and action back into the game, and players like them will be looked down on again. We used to think if you hit under .200 it did not matter how much power you had, because you were not helping the team win. Now, as long as you OPS is high enough we do not care if you strike out 50% of time because your overall "value" is there. I used to get annoyed when Mauer would take a walk with runner on third and less than 2 outs when he would let a strike go right down the middle, then we would not score in the inning. I would take that now over watching the amount of strikeouts Gallo throws up.

Prato and Funderburk not being on 40 man is an issue for them to help. There are a couple of people that could get put on 60 day, but we have others nearing read to come off the 60 day which complicates things. Prato has a SSS power surge. Outside of his 45 games in AAA he has never hit at the level he has shown there. He has always been good walk to k rate, and can play many positions so that is helpful. I could see him come in if there is a major injury, but absent that I do not see it happening. Funderburk is less likely unless there are some big injures in the pen as well.

We have some young guys that hopefully will continue to perform for years to come. I do always have caution because sometimes the rookie year is the best because pitchers adjust and the player does not. For the top prospect guys you expect the adjustments, but does not always happen.

If the next go round a team runs on us without any risk or close plays then I will begin to get concerned, but adjustments by the pitcher can, and need to be made. This is first time Dallas has pitched at MLB level with new rules, and yes he had them in minors too, but he still only had 7 games, and who knows how teams were looking at games in minors, he did not give up many runners I believe.

The question is, can they do better with someone else for a price they are willing to pay? My guess they are almost done with Larnach as a viable MLB option, and will be looking to shop him, but may roll with him. Wallner is clearly looking like a guy that will get a corner spot. Now, part of it may come down to how many of our many infield guys learn to play more OF. Right now going into next year we have more expected MLB level starting infielders than places to play them. Lewis, Lee, Julien, AK, CC, and Polanco. If Buck needs to play DH next year too, then we have 2 guys that need to find at bats elsewhere. There is also others on our roster that can take up at bats in OF. So despite his recent hot streak, I think they will move on from Kepler, but you never know.

Going into the break the Twins were not looking good, and injuries were mounting, offense was terrible and pitching was faltering a little. The sky was falling again as Cleveland took the lead in the division and we had visions of last year. There was hope due to fact we were going to be facing one of the easiest schedules in the league, and Cleveland was facing one of toughest. We broke out of the second half gate looking great, taking 5 of 7 on road trip, then sweeping the south siders. All was great, we were winning and back in first. The trade deadline was approaching and the talks were on little tweaks or selling off some of pitching to rebuild the farm system. Adding 1 arm to pen and a right handed hitting OF was talked about. Then we lose 5 in row, including being swept by the last place Royals, which started a 7 game win streak for the Royals. The sky was falling again and the deadline was right there. Many wanted to buy hard, but nothing was done, and all the talk was the season is over, the FO, manager need to go. Buck is on the IL, we have no offense and pitching is failing even more. We followed that losing streak with winning 6 of 7 and on current 5 game winning streak. 3 of the wins against an above .500 team, for now, but been really bad. We are are putting up a few big run games, but still winning low scoring games. We are getting some guys healthy, and Lewis is set to come back in coming weeks. Buck is still out, and will be for a few weeks, but Kepler is hitting like MVP, Wallner is not hitting like a rookie and driving HR like we thought Gallo would. Julien is working at-bats like a vet. Pagan, despite his recent blown hold, has been looking much better. Starters, outside of Ryan going on IL have been doing their thing. I am not predicting we will go crazy and start winning a ton, and win a playoff series, but we only have 14 games left against teams that are currently above .500, and 3 of them are the Rays who have been one of worst teams since July. Sure, we may lay some eggs like we have been known to do, but there is a good chance now that we get to feast on the bad teams, we can make up some games and finish close to where many thought we would, running away with a division making playoffs easy. If we finish the season as many expected, winning division easy, and can win a playoff series, will that change your mind about the deadline, or how the team was built? For much of the year we have talked about how we have underplayed expectations, and I agree we have, mainly due to weak offense. However, at the end of the year we will see if the team did what was expected. Yes, some will say we are not built for playoffs, but I disagree. We have 4 guys that all have shown they can go 6 to 7 innings of low run ball. We have at least 2 pen guys that can shut the door, and really when healthy a good lefty that can shut the door, and a few other guys that can hold their own. What would be holding us back is our offense, but the young guys have started to step up, and if all healthy we have 4 young guys in Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and AK that could do damage. Throw in a hot Kepler, healthy Polanco, and healthy Buck, that is 7 hitters that could be good. CC is fielding well, but hitting terrible, but he still can come up with some hits, we could slot him down to like 8. The point is, we may end the season right where we thought, maybe just not the way we wanted. The real question will be, how do we do in the playoffs, if we get swept again, then it is a failure, but if we get hot and win a series I think people will revisit their thoughts on the season. Coming out of the gates everyone was singing the Rays' praises, but now if they do not turn things around, they may not even make playoffs. We play 162 for a reason.

Jenkins is super hyped, even more than Lee was last year. I know he is high school kid, so I wonder how aggressive the FO will be with him. The FO has shown willingness to move guys quickly. I wonder if they move him out of the developmental league if he keeps raking there and move to low A by season end. My guess he starts low A next year with a quick jump to high A if he shows he can hit low A. I am not expecting him to make a super climb, and not overblowing his three games, but hype on him around the league is high, I just hope everyone is right. I am fully expecting a few on here to call for him to get called up for Gallo soon haha

Gallo should have no spot on this roster. Sure once in a very great while he hits a HR. But overall he has negative value and there has to be someone out there that can at least do something of value. The fact that he strikes out nearly half the time, and you cannot count on him doing anything when he does put the ball in play other than a possible HR. We have pinch hit for him in 1 run games with runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs because we know he is likely to strike out and almost never likely to hit a single.

If it is waiver claim, then you go reverse win percentage on who gets priority on claim, there is no more revokable waivers like before where you can work out a trade, this is straight up release. Meaning if no one claims him, then he is FA to sign with whoever, or we can put in a claim and assuming no one with a worse record did then we get him.

I am all for letting Gallo go. He started off hot and it was looking like maybe he would be a huge steal, but he has cooled off a ton and now pretty worthless. His defense is not elite anymore either. I think when our injured guys come back, Gallo gets the DFA.

The links for Austin Martin always seem to be wrong links. His name is too common a baseball name it would seem.

I would disagree with just looking at xBA as a standard of luck. I personally would say any weak contact that were not clearly intended to be so, a bunt, or a guy looking to hit the ball to a particular spot in the field is mostly luck. Yes, Dallas got lucky on the liner right at the 3rd baseman with bases loaded, but I would not say the first double play was lucky. I would say the couple of little looping line drives were more luck. I am not a fan of Keuchel and am not expecting much from him. However, if he can be on a good run for a couple of weeks, luck or otherwise, I am fine with it. I doubt he will be expected to help us in playoffs, barring injuries and would most likely not make roster, unless he puts up crazy performance last 2 months here. So if he can luck his way through next 2 months I am fine with it, but he is still just a 5th starter and would not start a playoff game.

He does need to develop a third pitch, but I also believe he needs to move the fastball around more. He too often relies on throwing it high in the zone, and throws the split down in the zone. The problem is that if every fast ball is up, and every off speed is down, then he is telling the hitter what is coming simply by location. They see a pitch up, they know it is fastball and a pitch down is off-speed. Maybe trying to mix in fastballs down at the knees will lead to more guys chasing the off-speed, because they are taking called strikes at knees.

A couple of things. One, the FO does not play the games, they put together a roster, and farm system in hopes they players produce. Yes, they have made some bad moves and trades, just like every FO does. They have also made some very good trades and moves. The fact that all our right handed hitters cannot hit lefties this year is not the FO fault. The fact that Buxton's knees will not allow him to play outfield is not their fault, and they brought in a good defender to deal with that, so we did not rely on Celestino or Gordon as starting CF. Yes, we signed Gallo for 11 mil and passed on Bellinger, assuming we could have got him near what Cubs paid, but there is no guarantee Bellinger does with us what he did with Cubs. Two, the holes that were talked about coming into the season, the righter says were not addressed, but the main hole people talked about was starting pitching, and pitching generally, but yet we have one of the best pitching staffs in the league overall. People were concerned about lack of right handed hitting OF, because of our terrible hitting against lefties, but even our right handed hitting players are not hitting lefties. The writer is upset we did not make moves at the deadline, but moves cost prospects. We could have brought in some rentals, but what would they have cost? If we would have traded away Lewis, Lee, E-Rod, and others at the deadline for a couple of rentals, my guess the writer would be tearing that move.

Severino numbers are very close to CES numbers at nearly same age and level. CES struck out a little less but ratio has been about the same. Similar power levels too. What is funny is CES was a college guy that started hitting HR, Severino did not start hitting HR until age 22 season. If Severino was drafted out of college same year as CES we would be singing Severino praises like may have for CES. They both have huge issues with their game, like bad defense and a lot of swing and miss, but people fell in love with CES power. CES is struggling at MLB level so far, and I think some expect him and possibly Severino to be the dreaded AAAA player. Unless Severino can drop the K's he will be a fringe MLB player.