Trov

He made a great throw and I am happy the outcome, but if you watch the play he was just standing there, not looking to back up the play, until it goes past Polo. Then after he sees the ball rolling he goes to get the ball. Now, if he is backing it up right away, most likely it is just bases loaded because they do not send runner. I agree without the throw we allow a run, but if he does what he should have done from jump, back up his teammate, then there would not have needed to be a throw.

There were several moments where in past seasons it would have not gone our way. The error in first would have just unraveled us and led to at least a couple of runs off the bat, but Lopez stepped up. Then the play CC made after Polo, who needs to not play 3rd. Either play him 2nd or bench him because his defense there is about as good as having a card board cut out. In years past that would have scored a run instead of getting the out at the plate and ending the inning. Finally, the catch by Taylor up against the wall. He jumped and really did not need to. In past years all three of those would have led the team to unravel and lose the game. But, this year we made the plays that needed to be made in those spots. The lack of anyone doing anything on offense other than Lewis is a concern, but it was only 1 game and hopefully others will step up. We had a few chances to get that big hit to blow the game open and did not do it, but Toronto had many chances to get back in it, and they did not either. I am happy our pen is really all available and we got 1 game up. I do not want to see a game 3, but we are in driver seat and Toronto is on heels. Nice place to see for once. I could see, similar to game 1, a quick hook of Berrios if he is not dominate. They may go full pen after that, or if early enough I could see them go to Kikuchi, a lefty, for some innings.

Royce is the type of leader the team has needed for years. I find it interesting they interviewed Buck after the game and he was talking about how Royce will go out there no matter what. This coming from a guy that has missed half his MLB games in his career due to many different injuries. Royce has missed plenty too, but Royce strikes me as the type that will go out limping to the plate if the team would let him. He even mentioned the Kirk Gibson moment. Royce has been the one that has helped develop many of the celebrations. He is always happy to be playing, and is upset only when he cannot play. Someone compared him to Puckett a few weeks ago, and he is as close to Puckett in terms of a leader we have had since him. Yes, he is young, and this was only 1 game, but he has shown no moment is too big for him, and he will tell the team to jump on his back if needed.

I am not upset with this matchup. They have good starters, but they are right handed. They may use the lefties out of the pen later in games, but feel we match up well with them. I was hoping Texas would have won the division so we could have hopefully faced them round 2 and not a rested Houston team.

Also, pitchers now know they are going for under 100 pitches. They are going about 2 times through order and then out for a guy who throws upper 90's generally and a huge breaking slider. Knowing you are going to max out allows starters to go all out more so. It used to be they would pace themselves and would at times pitch to contact early in counts hoping to get a quick out. I also feel pitchers are not pitching hurt as much anymore too. I think back in the day a lot of pitchers were pitching hurt for stretches, where now they will rest, have someone else come up for a week or two.

Depending on what is going on with Buck, Stevenson should get the nod over Larnach. Stevenson can play CF and can steal bases. Larnach is basically Wallner, but with less power, and Wallner may be faster too.

For the people that are upset the Twins have not drafted high first round pitchers or developed ace type guys, this shows the ability of the FO to find the diamonds in the rough kind of guys. So many later round picks looking like they have something to add to a MLB team. Sure, none will be mega stars most likely, but to have possibly quality depth arms that have decent floors has major value. I am rooting for Lewis, and hope they continue to let him use the knuckleball. Right now it just a change up basically, but with what should be unexpected movement.

The Twins are treating these last few games as basically spring training for playoffs. They are making sure everyone gets some playing time to be ready for the playoffs, but not worrying about making sure we get the W.

What gives me the biggest pause is his statements about his outing in the clinching game. He reported he was off a bit because of the moment. Hopefully, pitching in that situation will give him the experience on what it will be like in playoffs. If a game in regular season to clinch playoff spot caused him to be off, when there was no way at that point we were not making playoffs, how will he do in an elimination game? I still have faith in him, and he is the best we got, but when I heard those comments I gulp a little.

If the Rays can catch Baltimore, will require Baltimore to get swept at home by Boston, then the Rays will try to win division, get a bye and home field, where they play much better. However, if they cannot catch Boston, they will set up their rotation, make sure their top guys are good to go and rest any nagging hurt muscles are good for the wild card round. Every team would do that. They will not concede the games to Jays, but the fact is, they will be playing the Jays most likely in that first round. So they will play 3 games in Toronto, then go to TB for 3 game more important series. They will not risk burning their top arms. It is possible if TB sweeps Toronto the west sends 2 wild card teams, and would require Seattle to win their series against Texas, and Houston to win 1 game against Arizona. If Toronto wins 1 game Houston would need to win 2 games and Seattle will have to sweep, depending on tie breakers, did not look those up. If Toronto wins 2 they will make wild card and most likely the number 2 wild card. If Texas beats Seattle then the wild cards will be Houston and Toronto just in what order. But once the wild cards are locked both teams will look to set up their rotation for playoffs and they will not care too much about who they are facing.

I came across this article on MLB Rumors https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/the-twins-bullpen-is-in-good-shape-for-the-postseason.html and it really shows our pen is in decent shape going in playoffs. This is despite our thoughts that it is in rough shape. It points out that our current 9 man pen has a 2.84 ERA over 276 innings this year. That is a very good looking number overall. Yes, every pen guy will have bad innings, and that gets even bigger in the playoffs. It is possible anyone of them, like Theilbar did yesterday, will have a bad inning. However, when you look at that our current pen as constructed sure looks pretty strong.

Really this offense needs to keep doing what they have the second half. They need to have quality at-bats. Too often in the past our teams have let the moment get too big, and we make dumb mistakes. That is one concern I have with so many young guys that have yet to hit in playoffs. I hope they do not try to do too much and treat it like any other game. I remember in many of the losses over the years we make bad mistakes running, fielding, and bad at bats. I remember one of the extra inning losses to Yankees we had a chance to take lead in 9th off Rivera, and Gardenhire left Kubal, a rookie in, who had looked terrible all game, and all we needed was a sac fly. We had a guy on the bench that was good at making contact, but Kubal swung at 3 pitches, 2 of which were no where close to strike zone. I remember many base running errors as well by guys that normally had smart plays. My main concern is if a young guy comes up in big spot they expand the zone seeking that big hit and does not just do the normal at bat.

They will announce times when they know matchups. The times will be based on expected TV draw. Generally the Twins get the bad time slots based on that. Being they are more likely to match up to either another central time zone, or pacific that will impact things. If we face Seattle, it is likely we will get at minimum a later afternoon start, else Seattle fans will need to be watching games at 10:00, and will get less viewers from that alone, but if the start it in afternoon, they will get more viewers from that market. However, if we get a Texas team, starting earlier in afternoon will not be issue. I just hope they start after 5 central, else I will not get to see any of game 1 or 2.

I agree anyone can have a good game and anyone can have a bad game. If it works out we are facing the 3rd and 4th best pitchers in the rotation does not mean we will anything. It just means we are facing someone that has had less success in the season, but any pitcher can get blown up quickly.

Right now Seattle and Houston are fighting for last spot, with Texas holding onto division, but has 4 games against Seattle to close out season. Seattle is a half game behind Houston, but they play today. Houston then plays Arizona to close out the season, and Arizona is playing for NL wild card too. If you look at the starters for Seattle and Houston down the stretch, if they go to last game of season to decide the winner, both would not be able to line up their top starters for the series. Seattle is set to send out Castillo on Saturday and Kirby on Sunday. With the 3 game series set to start on Tuesday, this would make Kirby only available on a short rest start on game 3, and Castillo on short rest for game 2 or regular rest game 3. Most likely Logan Gilbert would start game 1, then depending on outcome of that game, if we win, Castillo would be used on short rest for game 2 and Kirby on short rest for game 3 if needed. Generally short rest does not work out for starters. For Houston, their top guy Valdez will be available for game 1 as he is set to pitch today, so will be ready for a game 1, as he is not slated to pitch the weekend. However, Verlander is set to pitch Sunday. Of course if they lock up wild card before then they will not run Verlander out there, but if they need a win to make playoffs they will go with him. So he would be like Kirby only available on a short rest start for game 3 if it goes there. It is also possible Houston is looking to fight for division and then they will need to decide if sending Verlander out for a win on Sunday is worth the risk reward of getting a bye or not having him for wild card round. Texas, should they be looking at a sweep of Seattle and losing division falling into wild card, they have Jon Gray as their Sunday starter, but Montgomery, most likely their best starter of late, would be available for game 1. So here is to hoping all three teams need to fight for a win on Sunday and use up one of their top starters to at best be a short rest game 3 starter. It really comes down to what Seattle does over next couple of days. If they win, it will be a fun weekend of baseball for AL west to see how things shake out, but if they lose the next couple of days, then spots will be locked and we will face Houston most likely with a ready to go Valdez and Verlander 1 and 2.

Interesting that when our biggest strike out guys started sitting, for various reasons, our offense started to do better. Wonder if there is a connection on strike out rates and offense? I know the league has gone away from caring about strike outs for hitters, but I strongly believe, in most cases, they are the worst way to get out and it is not equal. Guys that are all or nothing swingers will miss chances to drive in runs on singles.

I get the logic in this, and if the home road splits were not so far with Maeda and Ryan I normally would not care. Ober for example has little difference to care where he pitches, but with the other two they are very different. As I said, without looking deeper to explain why, it is something to look into for the decision makers. It could be when the majority of the bad split was, for example was most of the bad starts for Ryan when he was hurt on the road, which would explain something, but a quick review does not look that is case, as he only had 3 road games versus 4 home games during that stretch too. Point is, for a team that uses so much data, they better be looking at that and figuring out is there an advantage to pitching Ryan at home versus the road, and Maeda on road versus home?

Rocco has said no plan for game 3, if needed has been made. Really, we need to win game 1 to worry much about a game 3, because if we lose game 1, then game 2 is all hands on deck, do whatever you need to do to get to game 3. So if we lose game 1, then do not be surprised if we see Gray go 4 or 5 innings, he is terrible round 3 through order generally, and we run out Maeda or Ryan as a piggy back depending on score. If we win game 1, we have a little more room for error in game 2 and will need to plan to be ready for game 3 and do not want to burn out pen for game 3 in a lost cause of a game, if that is the situation. You should never concede a playoff game, like you can in regular season, but at same time you need to be ready for do or die games too.

This is a crazy last week for the West. 3 teams playing for 2 spots and 1 of those being a bye most likely.

If we do not win at least 1 of the first 2 games, the starting pitching depth will mean nothing. As pointed out, we will be facing most likely a strong duo as well, against guys that could match our top 2 pitch for pitch. It is unlikely we will face Toronto, so one of either Texas, Houston, or Seattle. I hope we can win 2 and worry about who starts games 1 and 2 in round, but anything can happen in a single baseball game, and we have shown our offense turtles when in the playoffs.

I know this has been discussed a ton, but I wanted to point out some things that have not been discussed much as to who to go with game 3. The discussion has mainly been Ryan versus Maeda, with some talk about Ober. Most talk is Ober is not the guy because of recent slide, most think due to never pitching this many innings in a season before. When you look at his numbers in second half, he has given up more HR, and his walk/K rate is much worse. I would not run him out for a game 3 deciding game. I for awhile thought I would start Maeda because he is the vet, and has been on a bit better run of late. He also tends to not give up as many HR as Ryan has. Ryan could get blown up quickly. However, after looking at the home road split my mind got changed. Joe Ryan has 13 home starts and 14 road starts. Maeda has 8 home starts and 12 road starts. Ryan has put up much better numbers at home. He more K's at home, despite 1 less game. He gives up less HR per 9 at home. Batting average, On base percentage, and slugging allowed is all better at home, but a wide margin. Why is this, not sure have not done that deep of a dive, but the number sure look like something is better for him at Target Field. If we assume he is going to be 3rd or 4th starter, that means if we go to 3 games in first round, he will either start game 3 at home in round 1, or if we advance game 1 in second round on the road, and Maeda would do the reverse. When you look at Maeda's splits, he has better road numbers than home. His slash numbers are about as reverse for the road and in line with what Ryan does at Target Field than when Maeda is away from it. These are some extreme splits for whatever reason Maeda pitches much better away than at home. So to maximize Ryan and Maeda, we should have Ryan pitch game 3 if needed, and Maeda would pitch game 1 in second round. Now ideally we win in 2 games, then I run Maeda out for game 1 in second round, and hopefully whoever is game 1 starter in first round, assuming Lopez, will be on enough rest for game 2, and then Ryan could pitch game 4 at home, maximizing that split again. With how extreme Maeda's and Ryan's splits are I feel like they cannot be ignored and we should ride with them. There may be other reasons to make the call, but I hope the team does look at the home road splits and unless they know of a good reason why they are so extreme and they would be negated by other factors, it should be part of decision making.

I agree that Funderburk should be on the roster to add that 2nd lefty. There will be times where we really could use a lefty and if you have overused Thielbar or already used him we will not have one. I would go Ryan game 3, if needed. His home road splits are very in favor of pitching home, where Maeda does better on road.

Bwar has McLain ahead of Steer. McLain has better OPS+ and OPS generally. He plays much better defense. The only reason Steer has better counting numbers is because he has 200 more at bats. They are close, but I would go McLain over Steer too.

Betts and Acuna have similar WAR, but Acuna has the better offense numbers, Betts makes up the difference on defense. Acuna being the 5th ever 40-40 player, leading league in most offensive numbers will give him the nod.

Really with the teams the Twins are facing going 7-1 is not out the question, not likely but they are 3 of the worst teams in baseball right now. I am not counting on us catching the number 2 spot but there is a chance. Houston has been doing their best to not run away with it at least, and really Seattle and Texas are playing for the final playoff spot in a best of 7 series, with 3 game series as a break between.