Trov

Only way this happens is if Kepler gets traded. If you see a Kepler trade pop up out of no where, similar to Donaldson trade a couple of years ago, then a signing of Bellinger similar to CC contract years ago could be coming. Bellinger is looking to cash in on his bigger year last year, looking to show he is healthy and can be MVP type guy again. He is the perfect type guy for "pillow" prove it deal. However, he hits lefty and would just add to our too many lefties in OF, if Kepler stays on team. He is below average against lefties for his career, but did hit them at high clip last year. If we are going to make a splash with remaining FA I would like to see short term contract with Snell.

There are two types of young as you reference. There is the literal age of young, which I would say 26 or younger is young for MLB. I say that because 27 is general peak seasons for most players, with a slight drop off or level play until around 30. 30 is old and most players are on down side of career after 30. Not all of course, but those are generally HOF bound. However, some use the term young for inexperienced, in particular at MLB level. I personally think just because a guy is not at MLB level does not make them young as experience goes. They may be getting more reps at AAA than they would in MLB. However, it is not until the a player reaches MLB that they really learn what it takes to be there, and stay there. So if a guy is in his 4th year and 26, he can by young based on age, but still not young based on MLB experience. If a guy is 26 and only has a year of MLB experience he is young for age and experience. However, when you are that kind of player, you are not expected to have many good seasons, and may only have a couple before his physical age catches up.

If Montgomery is seeking a Nola deal he will be waiting a long time. At his age and lack of Cy Young profile. Nola is younger and has had Cy Young votes in past. Personally, I think the Nola contract is big overpay. I would not want to see, and doubt team would, give a 7 year deal to any pitcher. I could see a short term "pillow" contract. Montgomery is not the type of guy that should seek that. He has been consistent his career. When healthy he has been the same guy his whole career, a good but not elite pitcher. He is a good number 2 or 3, but not an "ace". That is why he should not bee seeking a short term deal with opt outs thinking he will get a better contract next year, unless he becomes more than what he has been. If you wanted to go "pillow" contract, Snell is the place to go. I find funny the writer saying that Twins do not pitch starters deep into games, when we had the 4th most innings thrown by starters last year. Yes, we were 27th the year before, but in part it was who we had that made that happen. Snell has much more upside than Montgomery, he has won Cy Young's and when healthy has shown an ability to be an "ace". If you want to spend big on a 1 to 2 year deal he would be the one go after. However, both Snell and Montgomery are seeking longer than a couple of years, but both will be huge risks at long term deals. Snell because of health, and Montgomery because of talent drop off. The concern with Montgomery is he is 31 now, and if he starts to lose some ability he will be a 4th or 5th type guy. Most pitchers start to drop off around age 31, and only HOF type guys normally will overcome that. Being he was never even all star guy how can we expect he will maintain over the years? Snell his risk is similar that he will drop off, but that could still put him at a good 2 or 3 at peak, but his bigger risk is injury. When he is healthy he has been one of best pitchers in game at times, but he also has been barely even a 5th at times too. He has only pitched 180 innings both his Cy Young years. Other than that he tops out at about 129 innings. I would not bet big on him long term. I would point out, the writer argues Montgomery pitches deeper into games, but he only topped 180 innings last year at 188.2 in 32 starts, Snell did 180 in 32 starts, so Montgomery last year, averaged like 1 more out per outing than Snell did, not like he was some inning eater compared. Montgomery averaged less per start each of last 2 years. Point is, if you are looking for a prove it contract Snell would be the guy to go after. One he would have more to cash in on a prove it deal, similar to like Rondon did, that has not worked out well so far for Yankees, but signing a 3 year deal with opt outs would be more enticing to Snell, and he has more total upside. Montgomery has been more consistent over the years, and he has little to prove on a 1 year type deal looking to cash in next year. Maybe if he thinks he can be what he was with Texas a full season, then he could cash in huge, but that was just 11 games versus his whole career. I doubt he does that a full year at age 31.

If he can develop some off-speed pitches he will be just fine. That was the question about him all along coming up if he would develop beyond his fastball. The hope is that he worked on a secondary pitch this off-season after seeing the clear need. Some may say why not do that before, part of it is that he had such success with the fastball and not having good off-speed it may have been hard for him to see the need. From what I saw last year was his fastball was mainly up and his off-speed was mainly down and out of the zone. It was not hard for hitters to see pitch up, know it is fastball, anything else stay off. If he can start getting the fastball down some and learn to get off-speed over for strikes to keep guys honest will go a long way. You buzz a guy for strike 3 at the knees with a fastball he will think about that for a long time and start chasing out of the zone thinking that might be the one time you try to buzz him again.

I would not be surprised if Stewert has huge regression this year. Last year he was a minor league signing that got called up due to injuries, now this year he is a lock to make a pen. Yes, his short time with team was very good, but it was also very short. It was also no where close to in line with his career numbers. I hope he does not regress, but I am not expecting him to be like he was last year. No way will Varland break spring out of pen. We have too many options and they need him to be set up as possible starter for when injuries happen or poor performance.

I do not expect a long term extension similar to Witt at this point. One, Lewis is coming off a good season but still just his first someone what full season at MLB level, but still only 217 at bats. In that short time he was on a tear and if you stretch that out to full season, assuming he plays the same over 162 he would be MVP level with a nearly 8 to 9 WAR depending on his defense. Of course you want that locked up long term. However, it is still only 58 games. There is much adjustments pitchers to make and he needs to show he can adjust to that. Additionally, he is one year older that Witt and one less year of service time. Not 100% on this but believe he will be up for arbitration through age 29 season, meaning he does not become FA until age 30 season. Either way, that is later than Witt who would have been FA going into age 28 season. Unless we buy out 1 or 2 years of FA there is little reason to take on risk right now, so the opt out year would need to be year 6 or 7, when Lewis is 31 or 32. But then it only makes sense for him if there are 3 plus years of option after. The big question for the Twins would be are you willing to risk having 3 years of big money overpay, only way he does not opt out generally is being big overpay, to get cost control and 1 to 2 years of FA years? Personally, I think they would be willing to risk losing him after 5 more years, than risking getting stuck with aging guy that is overpaid. Keep in mind Lewis has injury history. These long term deals for pre-arb guys are so hard to gage. I think more players are willing to take them because it is life changing money at only a small risk of losing out on a little life changing money. Some though want the ability to be courted in first chance at FA. Soto turned down crazy long contract for tons of money. Teams only willing to do it if they get at least a year or two of the free agent years though. Without that it is all risk no reward for team. When you look at Witts deal, they set it that team gets 3 years of FA. Also, the years leading up are similar to pre free agent years. They buy out 3 years of FA at 30 mil, 35mil and 35 mil. Then Witt can opt out if he thinks he can earn more. Can he get more than a 4 year 150 mil at 31, how he is doing will tell. If he could not, then most likely he will be getting way overpaid and Royals will be stuck. That is some risk.

I am sure Taylor could have signed with a team by now, but my guess he is trying to hold for more or a more particular type team. In terms of the 4 big names, I could be wrong but I believe all have the same agent, Boras, who is known to hold strong late. I think each are seeking contracts longer and at higher value than they should get. Chapman is 30 years old, and his second half last year was just not good. If you take away his April his season was terrible. His July was okay, but outside those two months his OPS was around .600, not a superstar. He is a good defender, but how much should you pay for a good defending 3rd baseman that is subpar offense and on wrong side of 30? He may not have another all-star year in him. Bellinger is hoping to cash in on his make good year last year. He will be 29 most of this season, he had same bWAR as Chapman, 4.4 but his is from offense not defense. Several years ago he was MVP at 23 then injuries set in and he had several bad years. He got the 1 year deal from Cubs and did well. However, he is seeking an MVP type contract, and I doubt many teams willing to give him more than 3 to 4 years. He has not shown he warrants a deal that goes into his last 30's. Even this last year he had 2 great months, 2 good months and 2 bad months. For Snell he is 31, has been above average pitcher most of his career, but not been cy young level most of his career. His FIP was 3.44(also his career FIP) while ERA was 2.25, this suggest some luck. He has only had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 129 innings, last year and 2018, both his best seasons and cy young years. He can be a great pitcher, but his health has been an issue, and he is aging. If he is seeking anything more than 4 years, he will be waiting. Montgomery also 31 and also left handed like Snell. Unlike Snell he has never even been in top 10 for cy young award and mainly is a good but not great starter. He is seeking ace type money, like Snell, but really outside of his run in Texas after the trade, but his career is one of a good pitcher but never a number 1 type guy. Personally, he would be the one between him and Snell I would rather go after, just because he has been consistent in his career, pitching most of the season with consistent numbers overall. Snell has much more upside, but he also has been injured a ton. That is why none of them have signed because they are seeking mega star contracts but all have big questions about long term deals being a huge risk.

It is Wallner's to lose, barring any other trades. Against lefties he will not start too often, if at all, but I think they need to give him some run against lefties, at least in the spring, to see how he can do if he can be full time and not just platoon guy.

"Last year, the Twins gave themselves some ability to withstand unfortunate circumstances should they arise. This time around, they are threading a needle and need to be nearly perfect" I find this statement interesting. Last year we entered the season with Gray, who was always considered good, but may not have been cy young for a long time. Lopez was coming off a down year. We had Mahle who we expected to be healthy, Maeda who was coming off TJ and we had no clue what to expect, and really took half the year to be decent. First half of season pitched 33 innings with ERA of 5.18. Then we had Ryan, and two or three guys in minors we were hoping could step up if needed, Ober, Varland, and SWR. After Mahle went down, and Maeda was injured first half, Ober stepped up be very good, and Varland filled in just fine. SWR struggled and never got much run at MLB level. After Maeda returned healthy Varland moved to pen. We also brought in Keuchel for 6 starts at end of year. So this year we have Lopez, with higher expectations, Ober with higher expectations, Ryan with similar expectations, a guy comming of TJ that we have no clue what will get in Paddock, similar to Maeda, and either Varland or aging vet for 5th starter. Then we have a couple of guys in minors, either Varland, SWR, Headrick, or Festa to step up if needed. Really, I do not see much difference in last years plans and this years plans, we have hopefully 3 proven guys, an injury bounce back, a question mark, and guys in wings that are questions. Really, the only difference from where we were last year and this year is Mahle who we expected more from and did not get it. I mean we were talking last year of trading Maeda and let Ober do his thing, or Maeda out of pen to start year, at least I recall people on here posting on that. Just like last year, if Ober failed and Varland failed we would have been in rough shape. We will need to go to other pitchers than top 5 some time this year, question is how much and how will they do. They need to get a shot at some point. If SWR, Festa, and Varland fail when they get their shot it will not be good, but same as last year really. So no our rotation has not really fallen from what plan was last year. I think people are looking back at the results that worked out from last year and saying we are in trouble this year because we do not have as much depth, but our depth is basically the same. Varland and Ober were not proven pitchers last year when they got their run. You never get to "ease" a stater into the game if you are fighting for first place. Only rebuilding teams have the luxury of easing guys into playing at MLB. Sometimes you need to throw them in the deep end.

I see the team keeping him FL out of spring mainly to have the bigger facility and warmer weather to keep working on things. Then, unless injury or poor performance, he will move to to high A end of May. If he crushes there I could see him get to AA by end of July. The hype on the kid is crazy, and I hope he can make it there.

The splits right versus left is not as big of a deal as people might try to make. That is mainly due to just SSS. If it carries into next year then maybe there is an issue there. However, at 104 at bats, if he gets a few hits over his next 10 at bats his numbers will jump up a bit. I am not concerned yet, but will be something to look at down the road. Also, many switch hitters will flip flop from one season to next on which side is better. Just look at Polanco who was referenced, in 2023 he was better against lefties, in 2022 he was much better against righties, and in 2021 he was about even. For his career he has a better OBP against righties. Point is one season of a lower number does not make him unable to hit from that side.

I get fans being upset with reduced payroll, but in part payroll was going to be reduced by transitioning to younger guys. Payroll will need to go up as more players get to arb years in coming seasons, and unless we get 1 or 2 year deals on vets now then it would help prevent singing down the road. Also, signing some vets to even a 1 or 2 year deal now, could cause us to lose the younger guy because of 40 man roster moves. There is so much that goes into building a team. If you look just at one season it can hurt you down the road.

I am glad they added the bonus for having your young guys break camp with ya and rewarded for doing well. That being said, I find it unlikely Lee will break camp, barring a super hot spring and injuries, and I also find it unlikely lee will win ROY over Holliday, unless Holliday gets hurt or really is over his head.

I can understand the K-rate and not swinging often will be an issue, but it may be he is looking for pitches in certain areas and if he does not get it he will take it. It could be he just needs to work on the plan at the plate to attack certain pitches. If he starts taking too many pitches in the zone that are good pitches to hit that will become an issue. However, you give him credit for not chasing, it could be he just will not swing at borderline pitches.

That is a big no for me dog on Bauer. The man is terrible clubhouse guy. He once threw the ball from the mound into outfield because he was pulled from game. There has been many stories about how teams did not get along with him. He reminds me a lot of Josh Donaldson when it comes to willing to talk and stir the pot. He got sent out from Arizona, despite being a top pick because he refused to change the way he did things. Maybe he knew what he was talking about, being he put up good numbers, but Cleveland also traded him in middle of playoff race when he was one of their top 2 or 3 pitchers at the time, with no clear replacement. What team does that unless there is a big issue with the guy? I can only imagine the things that go on behind the scenes. I mean, Dodgers were paying him millions to not pitch even though he could have returned. Finally, outside 2 elite seasons, he has not put up amazing numbers over his 10 year career. He is 33 now, have not pitched in MLB for 2.5 seasons. His career numbers good not great. To me he has wayyyyyy too much risk to take a pass on. There is a reason no other team is willing to either, despite everyone always needing pitching. Not even a low budget team taking him at min, hoping he has a good first half to trade for something.

The top FA are seeking very long term deals, and so far no team has been willing to bite. The fact that Twins will have a 1 year TV deal does not make money down the road more secure. I am sure if Twins could get either Snell or Montgomery for a 1 or 2 year deal they would look to do it, but both are looking for 5 plus year deals. At 31 years old that will be a risky sign of either. Until they sign, trades for top pitchers will be harder to figure out because teams looking to sign Snell or Montgomery may have trade as a fallback, but if they sign, then that limits the amount of people looking to trade. The FO has long been known to wait out the market to not overpay. However, if the market for Burnes was what they got in return we really should have kicked the tires on a trade like that more. We could have matched that deal for sure, unless Brew Crew felt better about the return than most other people. It also sounds like most teams are balking at trading their young starting pitchers.

I do not know if Twins will look to flip him, but from what I read he seems to be a guy that will be aggressive at plate and can hit pitches in all zones. The question for him will be can he make enough contact when pitchers start throwing nothing but breaking pitches that break out of the zone, or will he be able to stay off them. I am not one that says a player cannot be successful at MLB level if they expand the zone, but it is very rare. There are some that have had HOF careers and have been known to expand the zone. Again, they had super star abilities to do it. The big issue is either committing one way or the other in my opinion. If you are going to be a guy that chases out of the zone then do it, and work on making good contact when doing it. It is the swinging at a breaking pitch in dirt that you cannot hit, or swinging at a pitch like it is fastball when it is way out of the zone that becomes issues.

I would love to see him get the chance to go deeper into games this year. Let him see a line up 2 to 3 times through and how he does. I would hope he starts at AA and let him pitch 5 plus innings a game. I get he can develop on the side, but you only get the in game working a line up multiple times by doing it. If he never needs to learn how to pitch to a guy a second or third time, and work on setting them up for later in the game, then he will be set up to fail if we ask that of him down the road at MLB level.

It is so nice to see guys late in draft rise up to be legit prospects. It really goes to show how hard it is to predict pitching. Clearly the Twins have found a way to identify guys they can add velo to. If he was throwing upper 90's in college, no way does he drop to 13th round. I would not worry about the walks in his SSS in AAA as going to a robo ump will take time to adjust.

I have long said that in baseball the "chemistry" of the team is more important that any other sport. Having leaders and having teammates you want to play for and make sacrifices for team success goes a long way. Unlike other sports, or jobs, these 26 plus players will see each other just about every day, for most of the day, from mid-February, to what we hope is late October. They get no weekends away from each other. For the off-days on the road you are still basically with them. If you do not like each other, it makes it hard on your mental health, and the mental game in baseball is huge. When a player is willing to play a different position, that could hurt their long term financial value in FA, but they do it because best for team, that helps the team. When a player does the little things to help the team win, but may hurt their personal numbers, that may hurt their financial future, but the players know they are for the team. When each player know the other will sacrifice for the team, not pass blame on others, and do what it takes to help the team, it generally makes all players step up.

Pitchers are always the hardest to project, and to predict long term success. Some pitchers will be one of best in league for several seasons then after one off-season they become one of the worst. Then some will go the other way, or the flip happens in the season too. This can happen to hitters too, but hitters generally have a bell curve to their career numbers, and rarely have a fall off the cliff. Pitchers, generally have a cliff they fall off, except for HOF type guys. Not saying Balazovic is done for a MLB career, but he fell off a cliff at a young age, before MLB debut, and he needs to make some changes quickly. This is also why you can never have too much pitching because year to year you never know what you will get.

Twins dealt from a position of depth, and most likely made best deal they could. 2nd basemen that are subpar defenders are not super high in demand. Polanco was great at times for Twins, but he is aging and on the wrong side of 30 now. Injuries will continue to pile up and his production will continue to decline. It is possible he has some good baseball still in him, but we have log jam in the infield and for his production overall compared to what we hope to get from other options the deal makes sense. Will it turn out to be a win win deal, maybe, or maybe one team gets hosed on the deal. However, to assume Polanco will have a significant better year than anyone we can replace him with, and all the players we got back in return will produce little to no value is going too far.

What is funny about SWR is if we posted just his July on numbers people would be super high on him. I get that we need to include his full season, but after June, he was 7-1 with 66 innings pitched, and ERA around 3.00 WHIP about 1.200, strike outs not amazing, but was clearly doing much better overall. Yes, his first half was terrible, but hopefully for him he can build off that second half. He was also 5 years younger than average player in AAA too.

Pens are so up and down. Very few pen guys will always be a top guy. Stewart last year came out of no where to have a good year. This year he may revert back and fail. I never predict pens because you just never know. They can even shift through the year going from terrible to great or vice versa with same pen.

Martin will not be a mega star, but if he can get on base near .400 and steal bases at a high clip and play good defense wherever he plays or possibly get moved around, he will have a nice career at the majors. As long as he has enough power to keep outfields honest he should be fine. People wanted him to be more than what he was by trying to turn him into a power hitter, and then when he did not develop power, everyone wrote him off, but a .400 OBP is still great even if mostly just walks and singles with the occasional double. With his speed he will get plenty of stolen bases.