Trov

I remember Tom Kelly saying during Joe's first spring training that if he was not playing catcher he would be a major league guy already. He said he most likely could have hit at MLB level right out of high school, but he was not ready to catch at MLB level yet. I think players and teams choose to take guys off of catcher for two reasons, one if they are a top offensive guy they want to make sure their bat is in lineup each day, and do not want to be worn down from catching. Two, they cannot defend it at a good enough level. One main reason catchers are not common in hall is they generally do not put up the offense required, and unlike CF or SS, their defense is not on major display with flashy plays. A good defensive catcher generally is not talked about a ton, because teams hardly try to steal on them, and they do not give up passed balls. Where guys like Ozzie Smith, who were terrible offensive guy, but was one of, if not, the best defensive SS of all time and would make you go wow with many of his plays. If you could not see his amazing plays, and he was sitting behind the plate being top defensive catcher of all time, he may not make HOF. Good for Joe, he deserved to be in HOF, and I was worried he was not going to get in, at least not right away, because he got moved off catcher and his overall counting numbers did not warrant HOF if not by a catcher. The fact in his prime at catcher he was one top hitting catchers ever is what got him in. It is possible if he did not play catcher but a different position he could have put up even better numbers over his career. It is possible he could still be playing even.

Jenkins may be the most hyped prospect for Twins since Buck was drafted. Lewis had some hype but not to Jenkins or Buck level. If Jenkins can hit ground running I could see him move up to AA by season end. Jenkins ended in low A and did better there than Rookie league. His eye at plate early on was good. I know it is SSS, but when people saying he would have been number 1 pick in many other recent drafts that helps the hype train. Lee has the looking of being a solid player but his ceiling is much lower, not saying he could not break out beyond what is expected, but he is thought of being just solid all around good hitter, but not great.

The Chapman signing by Pirates is savvy move. The Twins in the late 90's early 2000's did signings like that. They would sign a vet, knowing they planned to trade by seasons end and they hoped the player would show value to increase trade returns. Left handed pen guys will always be in demand and guys that have shown success in high leverage in past as well.

You know another player that hardly chased, had low hard hit rate, but sure produced on offense? Luis Arraez. His knock was always his lack of power. His contact rate is higher, but his walk rate is much lower too. They are not the same player by any stretch, but the point is you can get offense from more than just power. The fact Martin can run and steal bases will make him even more valuable. I still have some hopes for Martin.

The Twins were actually one of the more watched teams via TV in recent years. That is one of the reasons Bally agreed to pay to keep them the rest of the season, because it was one of the few deals that were making them money. TV deals are not piling up because it is not that simple. Right now with the change in how people are viewing it is affecting the TV market. The Twins contract has been up since end of season and yet no new broadcaster has come along willing to pay what Bally did last year, as least as far as we know. The Twins payroll has been near the league average for years, but fans that think team is cheap continue to act like their payroll is near what Ray or Oakland put out. There were 4 teams that payroll was nearly half ours, but fans act like we have the lowest payroll in the league. Outside of Padres, who are cutting a ton of payroll and reports they had to take out a loan to pay bills, every team ahead of us in payroll are much larger markets. Twin cities is about 16h largest metro area in country, every other team is in larger market. If the team was a cheap as some fans like to think, they would not be near league average in payroll they would be near bottom. They would not have went out and signed top free agents in last few years. They would have traded buck away in his free agent year, they would not have signed CC, or Lopez to contracts. Just because they are not spending like the top spenders does not mean they are being cheap. League average spending is not cheap.

The fact all three have Boras is one of the main reasons. First, he is known to hold out on signings, but he also looks to work on one client at a time, unless deals blow them away. He tries to sets markets for all his players.

This is not some new trend. Many guys have made the switch back and forth in history. The fact that there are many in one off-season may be a little bit odd, but nothing new.

I give little hype to any international signing. They are too young to really project for much. That is why the high priced guys flop just about as much as the low priced guys make big waves. In 2015 Juan Soto was ranked 22nd, and signed for 1.5 mil. In that same class, Gilberto Celestino was ranked 7, signed for 2.5, we signed Wander Javier for 4 mil. Fernando Tatis Jr. was 27th and signed for 700k. There are a few other names on the list, like Vlad Jr. was 4th signed for 3.9, but point is ranking 16 and 17 year old kids is very hard to do. Soto looks like sure fire HOF, barring injuries. Tatis Jr. put up crazy numbers early on, but has had off field issues a bit hurting him. Vlad Jr. is on a good path, but just about every other one are not in MLB or not looking like they will do much at MLB level. We never know how the kids will develop.

I say this past year is most likely an outlier year due to his planter fasciitis. When your feet are in pain, it will affect every part of your game, hitting more than defense. I am hopeful that will get cleared up over the offseason and he will get his offense back to above average for SS and his defense improves slightly too.

I find the knock on E-Rod is he may be too patient. First, a high K-rate will happen with a high walk rate too, it means he goes deep into counts. I never think a young guy taking walks is a bad thing. The hope is he will have more of a plan when pitchers get better. Right now he is most likely not chasing much. If he starts taking fastballs down the pipe early in counts that is one thing, but it shows at least for now he is not chasing a ton. Yes, he may not have great contact skills, but at same time if his contact skills are bad, will that improve by attacking pitches early in counts that are borderline strikes simply to be more aggressive? I do not know how much scouting Gleeman has done of E-Rod, I have done none, but to draw a conclusion based on stats is a poor way to evaluate a player. Maybe he is taking good strikes to be patient, but maybe he is taking close pitches for both balls and strikes and not swinging at pitchers pitches. Without watching him I would not know. I sure assume the team knows though.

If we could get him on the cheap I would be for it, but I find that very unlikely. He would be fun to have returned to DH or play 1B, but as much as I like him, I think we can build a stronger team without him. His knees are causing him to have almost 0 speed, and will age very quickly. The fact that he has very little power too means he will become a poor defending singles hitter. He is reaching his prime, but he does not profile well as a guy in his 30's. Although he would be FA before then. That is why for next couple years I am fine with him if we do not have to give up much to take him back.

I have a feeling the shoulder affected him much more than he wanted to admit. When you are in pain, no matter body part, it will affect your swing in some way. When we are talking about the smallest fraction of an inch in a swing being the difference between hitting a line drive or a weak pop up or ground ball, every little twitch will make a difference. I would not count him out as a possible offense guy, but I would also not count on him.

I have no clue what Seattle would be looking for Gilbert. Really it is what does Seattle think of him compared to others in their rotation. They unloaded Ray, so less of a log jam, even though they replaced with a starting pitcher in trade too. Based on 4 years of control, what he has done in his 3 years so far, and coming into his prime, I think the cost will be high. However, the other question is how much do they want to upgrade at 2nd and corner outfield? If they are motivated load up on MLB talent and top talent in AAA they may be willing to take a little less than they could get for Gilbert. My guess they would be asking for some combo of Polanco/Kepler(possibly both), Lee or Lewis, and a pitching prospect. It is a huge price to pay, but 4 years of control for a guy that is entering prime and coming off back to back 3.1 and 3.0 bWAR seasons, Lopez was 3.3 last year. I personally would not do it because it would wipe out our offense and set us back. Yes, it would upgrade pitching, but we have a lot of possible options at pitcher in coming years. Also, if Gilbert gets hurt like tommy john, then you lose a year or two of control. It is always a gamble to give up big for pitchers and you never know year to year what you will get.

Keeping your minor leagues stocked up the best way to have the ability to replace people. You can trade from depth to fill holes where you do not have depth, and you trade guys at peak value if you have young people to replace. That is how the Rays do it for years. It takes an ability to identify possible young talent, and developing that talent in the minors.

It is nice to see late round picks develop, but it also raises the question on why so many higher round picks then are not developing over the late round guys?

Okay, why are you comparing Luzardo and Clevinger? Luzardo is 26 is on the rise of his pitching career, and Clevinger is 33 on the fall of his career. They should not be compared in any way, even more so on their career numbers. I am not saying Twins should do trade proposed, but to use an aging veteran that is on the back of career and compare him to guy entering his prime should not be done.

I think the good baseball minds make the difference, and they try to compare catchers to each other, but they still require catchers be high offense guys. In part, top defense catchers are hard to really quantify and the eyes do not go wow, like when Ozzie Smith played SS. He got in on his defense, because you could see the plays he made. A top defending catcher you will not say wow did you see that, all to often. In regards to the wear on the body, it gets brought up, but yeah many do not even realize. I remember being asked to fill in as catcher just for a practice and my knees were killing me. Sure, I was not taught the right way to crouch, or worked on that, but I could only imagine. Also, the catcher makes more throws than any player on the field. Yes, only a few are at full strength so not as much wear on arm like a pitcher, but still the motion will be tiring. He also takes pitches all over his body like no other. So yes, most catchers go to plate, bruised up and sore but still expected to produce at a high level of offense. It is crazy.

He did get a lot of out of zone called strike three, and a lot right on the edge. He did not swing at pitches out of the zone, mainly because he did not swing at any pitch right on the edge, for the most part. However, that does lead to more called strike three. You cannot applaud him for him not chasing, but get upset when he takes called third strikes that are close. You have to live with both. If you want him to be more aggressive on 2 strikes he will have to chase more at times. Really, where he can develop on 2 strikes is to learn to foul off the close pitches, or he can hopefully put more pitches in play early in counts. My fear for him is that teams will start to try to get ahead expecting him to take early in counts, but I do not recall that being the case, if it was a meatball strike. He was not Joe Mauer taking strike one down the pipe every time.

International signings are such a crap shoot. You are signing age 16 and 17 year old kids hoping they develop into something. Most do not, even the high priced guys and top kids do not turn into stars. Some turn into future HOF. I remember Sano was the top guy in his class, Polanco and Kepler were not nearly as hyped and they are still here, Sano is not even in MLB organization last year.

I read an article on trade rumors about Sean Manaea and it got me wondering if they should look for a 1 year 11 to 12 mil contract? I know he would not be a clear replacement for Gray, but I think he would be worth a talk to. First, he is a lefty starter, something we do not have. He has generally been healthy over his career and dependable to start every 5th day. His numbers are not that of a top end starter, more of a end of rotation guy. However, reports are he learned the new sweeper, something the Twins have been loving with their new pitchers. Manaea pitched mostly out of pen last year, after a poor start, but he got back into rotation last September and pitched pretty well. Really after May he pitched well, but most was out of pen until September. Really, if you take away his first 2 months his last 4 were pretty good. I think they should talk to him, see what he is asking for, and if we can bring him as depth piece we should do that for the right price. I know they are looking to trade for a controlled guy but Manaea may not be a bad backup option.

Depending on what we do with Polanco will affect this move. Also, if we make any trades using the depth we have. I think the health of Buck will play a roll too. If Buck is expected to be "healthy" then that means Martin will be more of 2nd base back up, than CF option. Martin brings more on the bases. Miranda is the big question mark. If he is healthy and does anything close to what he did as a rookie, after his second call up, then he would be upgrade over Salano at plate. If health to Miranda and Buck are still an issue, I could see them wanting to bring Salano in for spring training, but assuring full roster spot at this point is not likely. Salano will not be in high demand, but there will be teams willing to give him a shot of making a squad.

I for sure believe Kepler will regress. He will not hit a full season like he did second half, he never has. Maybe he will have another career year, just not likely. Jeffers if he becomes every day catcher he will regress too, but if he can split like he did I would not expect a ton of regression, he has shown when healthy he can hit. Stewart for sure it will be expected. What he did last year just never had track record, and pen guys are super volatile. Castro I believe can be near what he was last year. One, it will be his age 27 season, the general peak years of most guys. Two, in 2020 he put up even better numbers in SSS of 36 games, but he has shown an ability to put up okay numbers. Three, it is not like he set world on fire last year. He mainly just got on base at a higher rate. In 2023, he only had 17 more plate appearances than in 2022, and only had 4 more hits, all extra base hits 3 triples and a HR, the doubles were the same and so where singles. The big difference was in 2023 he walked 19 more times. So really the difference between his 2022 season and 2023 season was 4 hits, all extra base hits, and 19 walks. The walks are something people can improve on over time, and he can replicate that. In 2021 he had 31 more plate appearances than in 2023, had 1 less hit, same amount of HR and 1 more triple with 3 less doubles. Again, the main difference was the walks, having less in 2021. So really, if he can maintain a similar eye at the plate as he showed last year, I think his production can be very similar. Really, even if his offense takes a little dip, he is there for his defense first. He actually hit lefties worse last year than his career average, but he hit righties better. Over his career he was pretty even splits, but last year was much better hitting left handed than right. So if he can bring his numbers hitting right handed back to career average, and can maintain his numbers hitting left handed like last year, he could even have a better year, or he if gets back to even splits and does not regress too much hitting left handed he will still be on par with last year.

He will not be flipped for Burns. If the Brewers trade him they will be saying we need a rebuild, of some kind, and they are not pushing to win this year, unless they also get MLB ready pitching to replace him with as part of a trade. So unless we include someone like Ober a trade surrounding Burns will not have Polanco as the only MLB ready piece to return. I could see Blue Jays or Seattle as good fits to match with. Both have pitching depth to deal from, and both have a need for an infielder. Miami could as well, but it will be more than Polanco for a pitcher most likely.

First, a successful career for him will be making MLB as a regular and earning a contract beyond arb years is really a general bench mark of a successful career for most players. Really, for most I would say just having a full season should be considered successful for any player as very few percentage of players even get that. Of course, our hopes are much higher than that based on the hype on him. Many have said he could have been number 1 in many other drafts, which is nice for a team that took him 5th. Would his hype had been higher if he was number 1 overall? What my hopes for the kid is he makes MLB in 2026, he is a regular in the OF, makes all-star games and hits in middle of order around Lewis for several years and helps leads us to plenty of post season appearances. Of course his early results in minors are giving us huge expectations for him. They are very SSS but he did not disappoint in his few games so far.

Anytime I see a pitcher had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, I just assume their career is over. Yes, a few guys have been able to have some success after this, but most are never come close to what they were before, and this guys was nothing super special before either.