Trov

I know pitching prospect rankings are generally on possible upside and not on current output, but Matthews needs to be climbing the rankings real quickly with what he has been doing.

Last year there was all the talk about the top 5 picks all being number 1 picks if they were alone in the draft. For the most part people feel the draft broke down in the order expected. I figured lets look at the top picks a year later and see how things shook out. Number 1 Pirates took Paul Skenes, the only pitcher in the top 5. Pirates kept him in AAA to start season, but he quickly moved up and he has been all the Pirates could want. Looks like they did not miss on this one. Number 2 National took Dylan Crews, the college teammate of Skenes. Crews moved up to AA his draft year and struggled in in 20 games and National decided to start him back at AA. He is doing better, but not tearing it up by any means Number 3 Detroit took the first high school bat in Max Clark. He will be compared to what Walker Jenkins does being they were both the high school outfielders in the top 5. So far, Clark has not impressed, but still plenty of time for a 19 year old to improve. His walk to strike out rate is very good and OBP, but his power is very limited so far. Time will tell if he was a mistake or not. Number 4 Texas took Wyatt Langford, another college outfielder, so will be mostly compared to Crews. He is at the major league level this year but far from being impressive. He did great after being drafted but at MLB level this year his OPS is .565, and not sure if his defense has been good, but even platinum glove level will not make up for that poor of hitting. Number 5 the Twins took who was left, Walker Jenkins. He tore up every level after the draft, but got injured after 1 game this year. He has 9 games back and looking like he may hit the ground running again when done with his rehab. Really, so far, of the 4 outfielders he looks like he might be the front runner for best in the draft, but still early for all. Then at number 6 is when people said the draft really started because no one knew who was next. Oakland took college short stop Jacob Wilson. He has been hitting like crazy. Not a ton of power, but he is hitting ton of doubles and been getting on base at super high clip. Again early, but if he can stay at SS he may be better than many of the highly touted outfielders taken. It will be fun to track the four outfielder over the years because they were all expected to go 2 - 5 just in what order. It will also be interesting to see how many outside the top 5 end up being better, because everyone was so sold on the 5.

I do not have an issue some times, but he does it wayyyy to early in some games. I remember some games the other manager used it against Rocco last year. They used the opener a right handed guy, so Twins used heavy lefty line up. Then in second inning, they bring in a lefty to face some of the lefties, having Rocco pinch hit guys before their first at bat. Then the other team brought in the bulk guy, a righty and we lose the platoon splits the rest of the way. I do not mind it in the 5th if a big hit will break game open, but if no one is on base and the other team has limited lefties in the pen take the one at bat with bases empty in the 5th knowing the hitter will come up again later on. I get the theory that you may not get a chance to do it later on, or the game will be out of hand by then and take each inning as it comes, but you need to have some thought down the road. I am for it with say a bases loaded 2 out need a platoon split in the 5th because a big hit will score many runs, but a 2 out no one on in the 5th does us no good in the 7th or 8th when the spot comes up again.

Trying to do a player to player comparison in trades is a terrible way to look at trades. I hate when people say look at who you got and what you gave up to judge a trade. Right now people on here are comparing the CES and Steer for Mahle trade. Yes, we got nothing really in that due to injuries and we could have used them in other trades. However, CES and Steer were are like 4th or 5th ranked guys in our organization at their positions at the time. They were going to need to get moved to 40 man most after that off-season I believe as well, CES may have had 1 more year at the time not sure. However, if we did not trade them, then we have to decided, do they make 40 man or left up to rule 5? If they make 40 man who gets cut? The fact was we had super depth at infield at the time. We had Lewis in wings, Lee coming up, Miranda was having great year, Arraez was doing his thing. Polanco was still here with years of control, Julien was up and coming. We were strong at MLB level with guys in minors ready to come up. Would CES have played last year over anyone? Doubtful, and he would have spent most of the year in minors. Steer, if given the chance would have played over some, but unlike for Reds he would have not just been given playing time. When making trades and judging them, you should look at who we kept, as well, where they ranked in depth charts, because if they would have sat in minors for us, that is little value for major club. Also, if you know trades that were passed on that is something to look at as well. One trade that when you look at the effect on the club as a whole that was one of worst in team history was JJ Hardy to Baltimore. We made the trade because we thought we had a replacement from Japan coming. We got 2 terrible pitchers in return and the replacement was terrible as well. JJ went on to have some great years with Baltimore, nothing super, but gold glove defense and just below league average hitting, much better than what we normally got out of SS those years.

Okay, I will give you Steer hitting well, but CES, really? Did you even look at what CES has done? This year CES has a slash line of .190/.220/.293 with a -0.9 bWAR being also a negative defender at first. His overall numbers are slightly better than Margot for us. Steer is doing very well, but CES should not even be in the majors right now. Steer is doing worse since is super hot start though.

So to beat the Yankees you need to not let their stars, or their roll players get big hits, and you need to score against their bullpen. Summed up as pitch well, and hit well to score more than other team, sounds like a good plan.

We are over a month into the minor league season and our top two prospects have not played. Jenkins did get 1 at bat, but that is it. I have not heard any update on either Jenkins or Lee and any progress they may be making to returning to action. I was hoping to see Jenkins and Lee both tearing it up at this point, but cannot even seem to see when they may get back into action.

If Keirsey was not left handed I bet he would be looking at a call up and sending Margot packing, but being Keirsey is weak against lefties, like many of our outfielders, it is not really an upgrade.

Twins sent a few prospects to Reds a couple of years ago, 2 are in majors and 1 is in AA. Figured I would see how they are doing this year. Spencer Steer, is having a very hot start playing at MVP level in his 15 games. He has played mostly left field, after being mostly a second baseman in minors. He has come out the gate on fire, slashing .346/.477/.673 for OPS 1.150. He was a good hitter last year, but this year at age 26 looking like we could really use him in our OF over Wallner or Margot. Steer is not good on defense, but those offense numbers sure make up for that issue. Steers bWAR is 1.2 Christen Encarnacion-Strand(CES) is on the other side of things. He, just like Steer, has played all 15 games for Reds. He is slashing .185/.191/.308 for OPS of .499. He also plays negative defense at first. His bWAR is -0.7. He has made the most of out his hits, driving in 12 runs on his 12 hits, but striking out at 20 to 1 walk right now. Chase Petty is in AA and has made 2 starts. Neither would be considered good. 4 and 4.1 innings with 2 walks each, a run per inning each, and less than 1 strike out per inning. a WHIP of 2 or more and 3 total HR given up. Still just SSS but a far cry from what he did all of last year in A ball. He is still very young but that jump from A to AA is know to be a hard one and so far not going well. Sure wish Steer was in a Twins uniform with how he is playing right now. The other 2 this year is nothing to be missing out on.

I do not see this move for another couple of trips through rotation. If Varland continues to give up the 3 run HR he will need to get swapped out for SWR. However, SWR had 1 start I think we are getting a little too excited over 1 good start. I have high hopes for him, but he had a poor start in AAA this year too. Every starting pitcher has some good starts and some bad starts. Give each a few more starts. If you flip them now, Varland will be first up when needed for a spot start, assuming he would be rested, but SWR will get his shot as well soon enough I am sure.

It will in part depend on the health of players in AAA and MLB. If E-Rod spends all of April tearing up and looking like he has it figured out, and there are still corner outfield injuries, I would expect him to move up sooner than later. Else, I would see him stay until June to July. He could make a jump from AA to majors if they need him to. Personally, I think if he continues to hit like he has, still very SSS, and Wallner continues to struggle there may be a call up to majors for E-Rod. They have other outfielders that could swap in for Wallner as well so health of them and how they perform will play a roll too.

E-Rod coming out gate like he did 2022. Yes SSS but he is showing what made us so excited about him. If he keeps it up, Wallner better look out for his job before too long.

I agree that if MLB is not going to shift to a robo ump, they need to work with broadcast crews and get the actual zone that the MLB uses to test the accuracy of the umpires. I do agree, more so on the high or low calls, the zones on the TV are not correct, but the inside and outside should be as the plate is the same size. The calls on Wallner were not excusable in my opinion. MLB will be going to robo umps, they are using them in minors, and you would hope the umps in the games were it is all robo are still making calls in their heads to determine if they were right or not. However, if they are not, the training of umps are getting reduced as there are several games where they do not even make calls at AAA and only some where they make them and get challenged. It is also harder for the players. It is not surprising to see guys like Wallner and Julien strike out a ton watching pitches on the edges, that our screens say are balls off the plate, but get rung up. They have been training for a few years with the robo umps then they get asked to come up to MLB level where umps decide the strike zone. The most frustrating thing for hitters, and for most fans I would think, is that the zone changes based on the count. Torii Hunter when he broadcasted games would say on 3-0 the strike call is automatic unless the pitch was so bad the ump had no choice but to call it ball. When you watch games you see that. This is frustrating for players because the same pitch they took for ball one is now strike one later in at bat. For the people that defend the umps for how hard it is to be right, and they get like 90% to 95% right they ignore the accuracy of the close calls. I read an article a few years ago that reviewed the umps, using the same date MLB uses to judge umps, and the non-boarderline calls umps were right like 99.5%. Those are the calls either no where close to strike or right down the middle. But when you got closer to the edges of the zone, the umps were closer to 50% of the time. What made matters worse was the count affected how the ump would call it, and if they just called it one way, they would flip it the next time more often. Umps will get fooled by the pitcher and the hitter. If the pitcher was known for good command they would get good calls, if the hitter was known for a good eye they would get good calls. I am looking forward to the robo ump so the hitter, and pitcher will know the strike zone. I will agree until that time, the zone on the TV just makes fans not like umps even more because we see the "wrong" call on tv in big moments and get upset.

It is expected DeSclafani will miss possibly the whole season. This has many saying lets go out and sign another guy. I disagree. We have several guys in the minors that will be able to fill in. First, Varland should be a guy that can step in. We have SWR, who was touted until his bad first half last year, but had a great second half. We have Festa and Raya that could make starts this year for the team. We have the depth, and many are ready to pitch now. I know others will get injured, but going out to sign an aging guy to give the ball to each 5th day just makes little sense. We can go out and sign some to minor league deal, to see if they have anything left and call them up if needed, but I would not take up a roster spot on a 5th starter right now. It is not about the payroll, it is about the fact we have server guys that would be blocked from such a move.

They system is fully broke for pitchers right now. I agree, they get 1 contract to really cash in, unless did great in early years for nice arb numbers. Montgomery has earned 20 mil and Snell 51 mil. Snell won a Cy Young at 25 so that helped him a ton. Both should be getting paid, but both are huge risks for long term deals. One in like ten pitchers that sign long term deals are worth much past first season or two. Many get hurt missing a couple of seasons, or many parts of seasons, and many also just drop off in effectiveness. Pitchers get used up, burned out, and then only a few get to really cash in. These two seem to be trying to draw a line, but teams clearly willing to go with others and not pay their asking price.

I get your point, but I do not agree. Spring training games already mean nothing, they end in ties and the whole point is to get ready for season. You want to get your pitcher up throw 15 to 25 pitches in an inning, sit down, and get back up again, to work on the arm stamina. The amount of pitches in an inning has been shown to be a bigger deal than the total number overall. If you leave a guy out there for 30 to 40 pitches it could damage their arm on a worthless game. Yes, hitters need to get ready too, but wouldn't having to practice facing a guy they have not prepped for help that as well? Now Jeffers gets one at bat facing a guy they know little about for first time. The fact is, pitchers you face in spring are not the same type you face in regular season. They generally are working on other pitches they will rarely throw in regular season.

As any baseball fan is aware there are two remaining starting pitchers in FA that many thought would get long term big deals. Snell and Montgomery were both looking for $30 mil plus a season for 5 plus seasons. Rumors are now that Snell is willing to take the "pillow" contract similar to what CC did with Twins and Bellinger did this year. The only pitcher that I can think of in past that did similar was Carlos Rondon a couple of years ago with SF, which worked out well for him, and so far not well for Yankees. Montgomery is rumored to still be seeking long term contract of up to seven years. I have commented that Snell would be a good candidate for a "pillow" contract due to his previous upside of cy young winner, but long history of injuries and overall not consistent seasons. The problem for Snell is that the few teams that normally would be willing to drop $30 mil a year on a player, and a current need for pitching due to injuries are maxed out in the tax area, Yankees, Astros, and Rangers are the main three right now. Rumors are Yankees have interest, but a short deal will cost them a ton of money because they cannot extend the money over many years to lower tax burden. He is still holding strong for the high price and looking to cash in at some point. Montgomery would not be a good "pillow" contract guy because he is trying to parlay his big second half and playoffs with Rangers to get a huge deal. However, many teams are not willing to overpay for a guy that has always been a number guy, who had an Ace second half. The problem is, he is 31 and outside of his time with Rangers, he has been a number 2 to number 3 type guy. He is seeking top pitcher money until he is 38. Most pitchers start to really fall off age 32 plus, if not sooner. There is no reason to think he will be any good at age 35 even, let alone 38. So both guys are holding out for their big paydays, but no team is biting on their demands. Snell wanted the big deal, but is willing to take a short term deal for now hoping to have a second big season in a row and then really cash in at age 32? Personally, I think Boras is telling them fantasies and telling them to hold out and the money will come. In 2018 offseason, a pitcher that I think kind of lines up with Montgomery was a FA. He had a little bit longer success at MLB level, but was coming off a little bit of a down year, Montgomery is coming off peak second half. That pitcher was 31 looking to cash in, and no takers. He held out into late spring and finally signed a 1 year deal hoping to get a bigger contract the next year. I back fired terrible for him. That was, Lance Lynn. He came into spring out of shape, upset no one was willing to pay big for him, and had worst season, until last year, of his career. He did bounce back to have 4 very good years until last year where he looks fully done. Another pitcher held out the next year, the 2019 free agent year. He was the top relief guy entering age 31 season, showed no signs of faltering. He was looking to break the closer market, but no takers. He held out until the draft, so a team would not lose a pick. He signed big three year deal, so paid off for him overall, but not the team. Craig Kimbrel signed with Cubs and had 2 terrible seasons and then finally a good first half in the contract year. He was traded across town to White Sox, and fell apart down the stretch. He has signed 1 year deals each of last few years. He has done fine for himself, but never got the huge pay day. Yes, he is a relief guy so not full comparison, but history has shown pitchers holding out into spring, or mid-season, has not paid off for the teams. The two guys have waited out the market hoping to cash in on a pitching needy teaming, but those teams will know the history that not getting full spring training has resulted in not very good results. Also, age 31 year pitcher signing long term deals normally does not pay off either. Does Montgomery think teams will buy that his peak year at age 30 will be what to expect for next even 4 years, leaving 3 bad contract years? Over the past 20 years, there is two pitchers that have been great late into 30's, Scherzer and Verlander. There are a few that surprised the hell out of people by pitching well in late 30's, mainly Charlie Morton comes to mind. Out side of them, most guys are no where close to what they were in young years. Personally, I think the more they wait, the worst it will get for them. They will both try to hold out for max value, but unless a team gets very desperate, I think the value will keep going down for either, because teams will expect less output this year. Maybe, the pitchers are working out well on own, but unless they do some showcase teams will be worried.

It is always good to look at the underlying numbers to see if it is likely to sustain the counting numbers. It seems like that is unlikely for Miranda, unless he starts finding some barrels. I am not one that feels exit velo is anything more than to test to see if the hits seem to be more luck than not. Keep in mind exit velo does not equal hits, just the harder you hit it the more likely you get a hit. However, guys like Arraez was attacked for his lack of exit velo despite his very high average, because he hit a ton of line drives and would hit where the defenders were not, despite not being hit super hard. Miranda though is a guy that will need to hit extra base hits to be valuable as he never struck me as a super high average guy. I am not sold on him as a MLB player. Hopefully he will tear up AAA and be a call up when needed, or possible trade chip, but if he has another poor year at AAA he will be DFA when a 40 man spot is needed.

One thing pitchers and fans need to think about is that only a few pitchers are HOF level pitchers and can put their arm through what it takes to pitch deep into games a high level for years. They are not common humans. Nolan Ryan was one of the first super high velo pitchers that could seem to do it forever. In this day in age Justin Verlander is closest to that. Part of the problem in my mind, is that teams, and pitchers, look at peak ability and want that every time out. Pitchers are putting forces on their elbow that only the super humans used to be able to do. It is no surprise they break down at higher rates now. The pitchers do this because if you cannot throw at 95 plus, which used to be really fast, you are not likely to even get looked at. Could you imagine if a guy like Brad Radke tried to make majors these days? What about Trevor Hoffman, a HOF closer, he topped out at 95, and eventually lost that velo to below 90, for most of his career, and was one of best closers. He did it with change of speed, not with high velo. Greg Maddux topped out at around 93 early in career, but he got it done with movement and pin point location. None of those guys would have a shot this day in age, or would not be considered top guys because their velo does not put them up there. Most likely they would have changed up their approach if they were coming up this day in age. However, the starters of the past understood you needed to save some in the tank to get deep into games. You did not reach for max spin or max velo every pitch. The really good ones would change up the velo on the fastball even. I could never hit a high velo fastball, I personally believe that change in speeds and mixing up location is harder for a hitter to be on a pitch more than just velo. I hate reading that because a guy sits at low 90's velo he is not going to be a good pitcher. There is more than 1 way to get a guy out.

My concern for Kepler is he had a great second half, MVP level if played a full year. However, he has been around for years. You do not just figure it out at age 30. I think he was just on a nice hot run for a few months, In the playoffs he did okay, not like he had been. He struck out 25% of the time, 1 walk and had 2 doubles and 3 singles with 1 run scored. Sure, we are not likely to make playoffs without his second half, but I am not expecting him to carry his second half into this year. If he does, great, but do not count on it. Expect he will be his normal self. He will be a good defender with stretches of good hitting and stretches of bad hitting ending with an average season basically.

For me, if he can play 80 games in CF and 20 plus games as DH with above average offense, while stealing some bases, it will be a huge success. I do not expect it at all. It is great he is playing CF, but he has found about one hundred different ways to miss games in his career, I am sure he will find a new way even if he knee holds up.

This story helps show that Twins were not alone in the salary cutting. Also, there are still 2 pitchers on the open market that no team is willing to meet their demands. In terms of the Twins fans were upset we did not just spend more money when we got a TV deal. The problem with all that is who was out there we would just dump say 20 mil this year that would have taken it? Sure, we could have found someone to take it, but why just drop 20 mil on a player for one year if he is not better than who you have? Could we have got a long term deal with a pitcher, sure, but then the money next year becomes a question, and we will start having younger guys needing to get more and more raises. Just as the article showed, Padres had to sell of Soto for pennies on the dollar and many other cost cutting moves because they were over paying and could continue to do what they had been. What did their huge spending get them anyways? Their first big contract and trade happened offseason of 2018 when they signed Hosmer and traded for Myers. They finished with a losing record. Then in 2019 they signed Machado, and brought up Tatis, They finished with losing record. 2020, They finally made playoffs, but got swept first round. 2021 More big moves, signing Darvish and trading for Snell and Musgrove. Had a losing season. 2022 Traded for Soto, giving up young pitcher, and traded for another pitcher Manea. Made playoffs lost in NLCS. 2023 Signed Bogarts Finshed just above .500 at 82-80, did not make playoffs. Yes, they were in division with Dodgers so tough to win there, but they spent a ton and got 1 playoff round win. Point is, spending money to spend it does not equal wins, you need to spend smart too.

The knock on Lee, for people that are not high on him, is he seems more like a high floor guy and not high ceiling guy. He will hit for overall average, but not a lot of power. Personally, I am high on him, and hope he can be a good switch hitting on base guy with high number of doubles and around 15 to 20 HR a year. That would be great. Will he be MVP type, doubtful without increasing his power, but overall I think he will be good MLB player.

The Yankees are not that good of a team as a whole. Outside of Cole they have huge questions in pitching, and we do not know what will happen to him. We will know more if he is out long term with injury. Rondon had 2 straight good years, in contract years, and outside those 2 seasons he has been back of rotation at best type guy. The rest of the rotation is built off either guys that have never had sustained success, or aging and you never know when they will stop being even average. Their lineup is full of aging guys, outside Soto and Volpe. Judge has a toe issue that may become a career shortener, where he may be limited to more a DH type with lower speed. The problem is they still have Stanton in similar spot. Overall, they do not worry me as a top team.

You said two things that will contradict themselves. Winning rookie of the year and being a backup 2nd baseman. Backup players do not win ROY only starters do. Now, I will agree he could make the team and compete. I like him a lot, but only way he breaks with the team is if someone is injured because he will not break camp being used as a back up at 2nd base. The fact he could back up many positions means he may be one of first called up, but with both Castro and Farmer on team they have the backup rolls covered.