Trov

No team ever gets by on their planned 26 man roster through a season. Having depth is very important for any team. Many times, the depth becomes the leader in successful teams. Take last year for example, we did not have Lewis in our starting 26 man roster. We knew he would come back mid-season but did not know if he would be a piece or a top guy. He quickly became top guy. He then missed a little more time. We also thought Miranda would take 3rd base out the gates, and he failed. Juilen and Wallner both came in and helped carry the team at times. That is one reason always trading away your depth for a slightly better player is not always the smartest move, unless you have more guys in the wings to fill in.

AK numbers against RHP is not that much better than Santana's numbers against RHP. The difference in OPS from AK career to even Santana last year is only .040 points about, and slugging is only .020 points. That is not a black hole in comparison. I have high hope for AK but he has yet to show he can reach what we thought.

If Buck can stay healthy and actually play a near full season and in the playoffs our lineup would be so much better. If he can steal bases again even more. I will never believe Buck will play a full season but we can always hope.

It is unlikely Miranda makes the team out of camp based on current roster. He does not need to have a strong spring because he will get shipped to AAA barring injuries to others. Once in AAA he will need to hit well there, else he will be looking as a possible DFA or trade if we need to free up a roster spot. Therefore, I do not agree Miranda needs to have a strong spring. I also disagree with either Festa or SWR needing strong spring, and if they have strong performances in AAA that will show more than 1 or 2 inning outings in spring. Again, we all know spring means nothing and many guys crush in spring training only to flop when real games happen. Pitchers that are trying to impress normally will do better in spring against established hitters because the hitters are working on something specific. Just as established pitchers sometime have bad springs because they are working on a new pitcher or sequencing, stuff like that. I would agree people fighting for last pen spot need to show they can come out, throw well out of the pen. Rarely does results in spring connect to making team, it is the process the team looks at generally. So if the pitches looks good, and they can get velo up and work a good process, even if results are not as good. Personally, I want to see Buck play multiple games in CF and be healthy, that would be a best outcome of spring. There is 1 roster spot on the 26 man roster up for grabs right now. That is the pen spot. This will mainly be a spring of non roster guys trying to impress and build off stuff, and the fringe guys like Miranda and Larnach showing improvement over last year so they will be called on when needed not passed on. However, both will need to show that in AAA first.

Personally I do not like the deal at all. We are paying 4 mil of our own cash for a backup CF that is average defense wise over his career, was negative last year slightly. He is subpar with the bat. Yes, he has hit lefties better, but not a masher against them, still not huge power. Not sure what Taylor would have cost but he fits both those roles better. On a cheaper option we have Martin in minors. Most likely can play CF from all accounts, and will have similar power to Margot. I am not someone that thinks Miller will be a star, he cannot hit enough to be MLB regular I think, but we could have filled this same hole most likely with other options that would be better and without giving up Miller. Hopefully Margot does well with us, but feel like it is a ehhh move.

Personally not a fan of the move. If we wanted a right handed hitter for outfield, Taylor is better hitter overall than Margot in my opinion. I assume we could have signed Taylor for similar amount of money, maybe not. Also, Taylor is much better defender than Margot as well. It is possible Taylor wanted 2 years, which we would not have wanted to give him, but if he would have been willing to take 1 year deal for similar or slightly more money that would have been better move. I do not expect Miller to be an amazing player, but we could have used him in a trade to fill other needs. I am assuming the prospect we got from Dodgers is not even in our top 30. So we really gave up a mid-level prospect for a downgrade at 4th outfielder spot. Personally, I think we could have filled Martin in for what Margot would be doing for us, and he will hopefully play better defense and hit better than Margot.

I do not think the team gave up on him, some fans may have after his terrible start last year, but if you look at his numbers from July on they were very good. Not great, but for being 22 last year at AAA his second half numbers were good enough to warrant an MLB look.

I have little faith in Desclafani as a guy we can count on in this rotation. Specifically, outside of his contract year, he has never been much better than end of rotation guy. He did have okay year in 2019 as well. I do not care how much of changing his pitch mix he does. He has never been a great pitcher and he is at an age where really you just want to try and get innings out of him. My guess he breaks camp as the 5th guy, but hopefully with other health and performance he gets the DFA before too long. Maybe he has a good year and we would take it, but I am not counting on it at all.

Yes three batters does not mean much, but having higher velo and when you look at his last couple months of last season he put up good numbers. He will be an interesting one to watch this spring, and could be the first call up like Ober was last year and take off running if he is doing well.

Barring injuries I find it unlikely he breaks camp with Twins. Even if he tears it up. Mainly because they will want him full time playing, and he will not get that out the gate with the Twins. At some point it is likely someone in the infield gets injured and then Lee will get a shot. If he comes out gate blazing they will find a spot for him rest of the year, if he does not, he will go back until another injury.

There is one team that has to open their books, the Braves as they are a publicly traded company. The link below is from last March where Atlanta had record revenue, but less profits from the prior year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2023/03/01/atlanta-braves-post-record-revenue-but-profit-falls/?sh=6c91a8c03bcc They brought in 535 mil from baseball, 53 mil from non baseball stuff. The reported operated income was 71 mil, which was 36% less than year prior. They have debt of 546 mil, which was down as well from 602 mil. Of course MN is not Atlanta. However, it give some glimpse at a teams books, at least 1 team. It is true we do now know the books of the Twins, and many believe the Twins are raking in record profits every year, maybe they are, maybe they are not. However, if people do think that, then stop giving your money to them if you think the owner are just going to pocket it and not invest in players. I think also fans forgot you need to be concerned of more than just 1 year. Most players do not want to sign 1 year deals. So even if the team could spend an extra 20 to 30 mil this year, there are no players out there that are worth that per season that would sign for just 1 season. So now you need to invest in future seasons on that player. How will that affect your ability to sign other players in future years? For example, lets say Twins decided to give Snell what he wants 7 years and 30 mil a year. In a few years, Lewis, and most likely others, will need big raises. Will the fact that we are paying Snell 30 mil and others like CC large contracts prevent us from signing the other guys? If so, you need to think about that, and not just think about this year alone.

Only way this happens is if Kepler gets traded. If you see a Kepler trade pop up out of no where, similar to Donaldson trade a couple of years ago, then a signing of Bellinger similar to CC contract years ago could be coming. Bellinger is looking to cash in on his bigger year last year, looking to show he is healthy and can be MVP type guy again. He is the perfect type guy for "pillow" prove it deal. However, he hits lefty and would just add to our too many lefties in OF, if Kepler stays on team. He is below average against lefties for his career, but did hit them at high clip last year. If we are going to make a splash with remaining FA I would like to see short term contract with Snell.

There are two types of young as you reference. There is the literal age of young, which I would say 26 or younger is young for MLB. I say that because 27 is general peak seasons for most players, with a slight drop off or level play until around 30. 30 is old and most players are on down side of career after 30. Not all of course, but those are generally HOF bound. However, some use the term young for inexperienced, in particular at MLB level. I personally think just because a guy is not at MLB level does not make them young as experience goes. They may be getting more reps at AAA than they would in MLB. However, it is not until the a player reaches MLB that they really learn what it takes to be there, and stay there. So if a guy is in his 4th year and 26, he can by young based on age, but still not young based on MLB experience. If a guy is 26 and only has a year of MLB experience he is young for age and experience. However, when you are that kind of player, you are not expected to have many good seasons, and may only have a couple before his physical age catches up.

If Montgomery is seeking a Nola deal he will be waiting a long time. At his age and lack of Cy Young profile. Nola is younger and has had Cy Young votes in past. Personally, I think the Nola contract is big overpay. I would not want to see, and doubt team would, give a 7 year deal to any pitcher. I could see a short term "pillow" contract. Montgomery is not the type of guy that should seek that. He has been consistent his career. When healthy he has been the same guy his whole career, a good but not elite pitcher. He is a good number 2 or 3, but not an "ace". That is why he should not bee seeking a short term deal with opt outs thinking he will get a better contract next year, unless he becomes more than what he has been. If you wanted to go "pillow" contract, Snell is the place to go. I find funny the writer saying that Twins do not pitch starters deep into games, when we had the 4th most innings thrown by starters last year. Yes, we were 27th the year before, but in part it was who we had that made that happen. Snell has much more upside than Montgomery, he has won Cy Young's and when healthy has shown an ability to be an "ace". If you want to spend big on a 1 to 2 year deal he would be the one go after. However, both Snell and Montgomery are seeking longer than a couple of years, but both will be huge risks at long term deals. Snell because of health, and Montgomery because of talent drop off. The concern with Montgomery is he is 31 now, and if he starts to lose some ability he will be a 4th or 5th type guy. Most pitchers start to drop off around age 31, and only HOF type guys normally will overcome that. Being he was never even all star guy how can we expect he will maintain over the years? Snell his risk is similar that he will drop off, but that could still put him at a good 2 or 3 at peak, but his bigger risk is injury. When he is healthy he has been one of best pitchers in game at times, but he also has been barely even a 5th at times too. He has only pitched 180 innings both his Cy Young years. Other than that he tops out at about 129 innings. I would not bet big on him long term. I would point out, the writer argues Montgomery pitches deeper into games, but he only topped 180 innings last year at 188.2 in 32 starts, Snell did 180 in 32 starts, so Montgomery last year, averaged like 1 more out per outing than Snell did, not like he was some inning eater compared. Montgomery averaged less per start each of last 2 years. Point is, if you are looking for a prove it contract Snell would be the guy to go after. One he would have more to cash in on a prove it deal, similar to like Rondon did, that has not worked out well so far for Yankees, but signing a 3 year deal with opt outs would be more enticing to Snell, and he has more total upside. Montgomery has been more consistent over the years, and he has little to prove on a 1 year type deal looking to cash in next year. Maybe if he thinks he can be what he was with Texas a full season, then he could cash in huge, but that was just 11 games versus his whole career. I doubt he does that a full year at age 31.

If he can develop some off-speed pitches he will be just fine. That was the question about him all along coming up if he would develop beyond his fastball. The hope is that he worked on a secondary pitch this off-season after seeing the clear need. Some may say why not do that before, part of it is that he had such success with the fastball and not having good off-speed it may have been hard for him to see the need. From what I saw last year was his fastball was mainly up and his off-speed was mainly down and out of the zone. It was not hard for hitters to see pitch up, know it is fastball, anything else stay off. If he can start getting the fastball down some and learn to get off-speed over for strikes to keep guys honest will go a long way. You buzz a guy for strike 3 at the knees with a fastball he will think about that for a long time and start chasing out of the zone thinking that might be the one time you try to buzz him again.

I would not be surprised if Stewert has huge regression this year. Last year he was a minor league signing that got called up due to injuries, now this year he is a lock to make a pen. Yes, his short time with team was very good, but it was also very short. It was also no where close to in line with his career numbers. I hope he does not regress, but I am not expecting him to be like he was last year. No way will Varland break spring out of pen. We have too many options and they need him to be set up as possible starter for when injuries happen or poor performance.

I do not expect a long term extension similar to Witt at this point. One, Lewis is coming off a good season but still just his first someone what full season at MLB level, but still only 217 at bats. In that short time he was on a tear and if you stretch that out to full season, assuming he plays the same over 162 he would be MVP level with a nearly 8 to 9 WAR depending on his defense. Of course you want that locked up long term. However, it is still only 58 games. There is much adjustments pitchers to make and he needs to show he can adjust to that. Additionally, he is one year older that Witt and one less year of service time. Not 100% on this but believe he will be up for arbitration through age 29 season, meaning he does not become FA until age 30 season. Either way, that is later than Witt who would have been FA going into age 28 season. Unless we buy out 1 or 2 years of FA there is little reason to take on risk right now, so the opt out year would need to be year 6 or 7, when Lewis is 31 or 32. But then it only makes sense for him if there are 3 plus years of option after. The big question for the Twins would be are you willing to risk having 3 years of big money overpay, only way he does not opt out generally is being big overpay, to get cost control and 1 to 2 years of FA years? Personally, I think they would be willing to risk losing him after 5 more years, than risking getting stuck with aging guy that is overpaid. Keep in mind Lewis has injury history. These long term deals for pre-arb guys are so hard to gage. I think more players are willing to take them because it is life changing money at only a small risk of losing out on a little life changing money. Some though want the ability to be courted in first chance at FA. Soto turned down crazy long contract for tons of money. Teams only willing to do it if they get at least a year or two of the free agent years though. Without that it is all risk no reward for team. When you look at Witts deal, they set it that team gets 3 years of FA. Also, the years leading up are similar to pre free agent years. They buy out 3 years of FA at 30 mil, 35mil and 35 mil. Then Witt can opt out if he thinks he can earn more. Can he get more than a 4 year 150 mil at 31, how he is doing will tell. If he could not, then most likely he will be getting way overpaid and Royals will be stuck. That is some risk.

I am sure Taylor could have signed with a team by now, but my guess he is trying to hold for more or a more particular type team. In terms of the 4 big names, I could be wrong but I believe all have the same agent, Boras, who is known to hold strong late. I think each are seeking contracts longer and at higher value than they should get. Chapman is 30 years old, and his second half last year was just not good. If you take away his April his season was terrible. His July was okay, but outside those two months his OPS was around .600, not a superstar. He is a good defender, but how much should you pay for a good defending 3rd baseman that is subpar offense and on wrong side of 30? He may not have another all-star year in him. Bellinger is hoping to cash in on his make good year last year. He will be 29 most of this season, he had same bWAR as Chapman, 4.4 but his is from offense not defense. Several years ago he was MVP at 23 then injuries set in and he had several bad years. He got the 1 year deal from Cubs and did well. However, he is seeking an MVP type contract, and I doubt many teams willing to give him more than 3 to 4 years. He has not shown he warrants a deal that goes into his last 30's. Even this last year he had 2 great months, 2 good months and 2 bad months. For Snell he is 31, has been above average pitcher most of his career, but not been cy young level most of his career. His FIP was 3.44(also his career FIP) while ERA was 2.25, this suggest some luck. He has only had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 129 innings, last year and 2018, both his best seasons and cy young years. He can be a great pitcher, but his health has been an issue, and he is aging. If he is seeking anything more than 4 years, he will be waiting. Montgomery also 31 and also left handed like Snell. Unlike Snell he has never even been in top 10 for cy young award and mainly is a good but not great starter. He is seeking ace type money, like Snell, but really outside of his run in Texas after the trade, but his career is one of a good pitcher but never a number 1 type guy. Personally, he would be the one between him and Snell I would rather go after, just because he has been consistent in his career, pitching most of the season with consistent numbers overall. Snell has much more upside, but he also has been injured a ton. That is why none of them have signed because they are seeking mega star contracts but all have big questions about long term deals being a huge risk.

It is Wallner's to lose, barring any other trades. Against lefties he will not start too often, if at all, but I think they need to give him some run against lefties, at least in the spring, to see how he can do if he can be full time and not just platoon guy.

"Last year, the Twins gave themselves some ability to withstand unfortunate circumstances should they arise. This time around, they are threading a needle and need to be nearly perfect" I find this statement interesting. Last year we entered the season with Gray, who was always considered good, but may not have been cy young for a long time. Lopez was coming off a down year. We had Mahle who we expected to be healthy, Maeda who was coming off TJ and we had no clue what to expect, and really took half the year to be decent. First half of season pitched 33 innings with ERA of 5.18. Then we had Ryan, and two or three guys in minors we were hoping could step up if needed, Ober, Varland, and SWR. After Mahle went down, and Maeda was injured first half, Ober stepped up be very good, and Varland filled in just fine. SWR struggled and never got much run at MLB level. After Maeda returned healthy Varland moved to pen. We also brought in Keuchel for 6 starts at end of year. So this year we have Lopez, with higher expectations, Ober with higher expectations, Ryan with similar expectations, a guy comming of TJ that we have no clue what will get in Paddock, similar to Maeda, and either Varland or aging vet for 5th starter. Then we have a couple of guys in minors, either Varland, SWR, Headrick, or Festa to step up if needed. Really, I do not see much difference in last years plans and this years plans, we have hopefully 3 proven guys, an injury bounce back, a question mark, and guys in wings that are questions. Really, the only difference from where we were last year and this year is Mahle who we expected more from and did not get it. I mean we were talking last year of trading Maeda and let Ober do his thing, or Maeda out of pen to start year, at least I recall people on here posting on that. Just like last year, if Ober failed and Varland failed we would have been in rough shape. We will need to go to other pitchers than top 5 some time this year, question is how much and how will they do. They need to get a shot at some point. If SWR, Festa, and Varland fail when they get their shot it will not be good, but same as last year really. So no our rotation has not really fallen from what plan was last year. I think people are looking back at the results that worked out from last year and saying we are in trouble this year because we do not have as much depth, but our depth is basically the same. Varland and Ober were not proven pitchers last year when they got their run. You never get to "ease" a stater into the game if you are fighting for first place. Only rebuilding teams have the luxury of easing guys into playing at MLB. Sometimes you need to throw them in the deep end.

I see the team keeping him FL out of spring mainly to have the bigger facility and warmer weather to keep working on things. Then, unless injury or poor performance, he will move to to high A end of May. If he crushes there I could see him get to AA by end of July. The hype on the kid is crazy, and I hope he can make it there.

The splits right versus left is not as big of a deal as people might try to make. That is mainly due to just SSS. If it carries into next year then maybe there is an issue there. However, at 104 at bats, if he gets a few hits over his next 10 at bats his numbers will jump up a bit. I am not concerned yet, but will be something to look at down the road. Also, many switch hitters will flip flop from one season to next on which side is better. Just look at Polanco who was referenced, in 2023 he was better against lefties, in 2022 he was much better against righties, and in 2021 he was about even. For his career he has a better OBP against righties. Point is one season of a lower number does not make him unable to hit from that side.

I get fans being upset with reduced payroll, but in part payroll was going to be reduced by transitioning to younger guys. Payroll will need to go up as more players get to arb years in coming seasons, and unless we get 1 or 2 year deals on vets now then it would help prevent singing down the road. Also, signing some vets to even a 1 or 2 year deal now, could cause us to lose the younger guy because of 40 man roster moves. There is so much that goes into building a team. If you look just at one season it can hurt you down the road.

I am glad they added the bonus for having your young guys break camp with ya and rewarded for doing well. That being said, I find it unlikely Lee will break camp, barring a super hot spring and injuries, and I also find it unlikely lee will win ROY over Holliday, unless Holliday gets hurt or really is over his head.

I can understand the K-rate and not swinging often will be an issue, but it may be he is looking for pitches in certain areas and if he does not get it he will take it. It could be he just needs to work on the plan at the plate to attack certain pitches. If he starts taking too many pitches in the zone that are good pitches to hit that will become an issue. However, you give him credit for not chasing, it could be he just will not swing at borderline pitches.