Trov

Not saying the kid will ever make majors or do anything if he does, but I hate when teams say because of height someone cannot get it done. Yes, is it rare sure, but clearly they can do it. Jose Altuve for years, even when he was getting it done at majors still was talked about that he will regress and never hit for any power. His first 4 years in league age 21 through hit for minimal power but had decent OBP. Then he added the power. I bet if Puckett was around now, he would get passed over as well, he was only 5'8" and was not a power hitter when he first started. Puckett played in era where getting hits was valued even if not for power, so he got a shot, then developed power. No way would he have been given same shot these days. Altuve, was signed when 16 so they may have thought growth was still coming, and he just kept hitting for average and a little power that he forced his way onto the team. However, if he was born in US, I bet it would have taken much longer for him to get a shot, and similar to the kid in the article would have been passed over by teams. This is similar to Arraez situation, guy that has always hit for high average, but lacks the HR pop. It really comes down to philosophy on do you want more power and extra base hits, or do you want guys that get hit generally and get on base? Personally, I think a mix for a team is needed, and that is what used to be the norm, but many have switched to just extra base hits. I hope the kid keeps on hitting and forces some hands in next year. At age 24 if he keeps hitting he could climb up to AA by end of year, and at 25 next year start there and move up to AAA and possible have a few good years in MLB.

You did not answer any of the questions I posed to you. I never said the whole roster is bester than Cleveland, but you said only Lewis and CC would be better than the players Cleveland put out there, and Lewis is basically a tie with Ramirez is a tie. I did not say Jeffers is the best catcher in the league, but you would take Bo Naylor a guy with a .OPS 604 over Jeffers? I would it is a toss up between Naylor and Vasquez, but I would take Jeffers over Naylor, at least for now, maybe down road Naylor gets better, but this year no way would I trade Naylor for Jeffers straight up to finish out the year. I would not trade Buck for Freeman straight up either. I would take Kwan over any of our OF right now, but I would expect some regression for him, just based on his history. I am not saying Kepler is amazing or anything, but he is on his career average, so not likely to regress at this point. I would say overall there are players that I would clearly take from Cleveland to put into this line up over who we have, and about 3 that I would take from Twins to put on Cleveland as an upgrade, and 2 to 3 are pretty much a toss up at this point. Overall close matched lineup, but Cleveland has several guys putting up career type numbers, Kwan by far, Fry by far, and Josh Naylor has already tied career high in HR. In terms of Twins, I do not think any are having career years, outside Lewis, but he has never played a full year so hard to decide what his norm may be. Most of the Twins hitters are near their career norm it would seem. Maybe Castro a little, but not much off what he did last year. So I ask again, you would want Bo Naylor over Jeffers? You would want Freeman over Buck? Specifically for this year alone.

So you would want Bo Naylor over both our catchers? I mean for offense sure over Vasquez, but over Jeffers? Naylor is hitting .565 OPS. You would take Freeman over Buck too? Sure numbers right now are close, Buck still better this year and shown much better upside over career. I am not saying our lineup is amazing, but Cleveland is very top heavy with huge holes at end, if Kwan, Fry, or Ramirez regress they will be in big trouble. Kwan is having a career year by an extreme level, career .780 OPS, that includes this year, which he is 1.020, that is unlikely to carry all year, with already having career high in HR. Maybe he made career changing moves, but less likely. Fry there is a reason he is 28 and never played a full MLB season, expect regression to his norm too. Ramirez is doing what his career average is, but if Kwan and or Fry regress to career norms, there offense is in trouble. It is possible they carry it all year though. Their starters have not been good, but their pen has been great. If they do not get more from the starters, it is likely the pen will start to falter near end of year. Happened with Clase last year. He is on pace for similar usage, and number of saves, but he blew 12 saves last year. On pace to be a little better for that, but he had 6 blown saves July on last year. 6 before July where this year only 3. Point is, if he slips with over use or other pen guys, and offense from their top 4 guys, they could go on a poor stretch. Will they, time will tell.

Robert has never taken off like he was projected to do. One the injuries and two I think he got stuck on a team with terrible culture. Maybe a new place would help, but I would not drop major prospects for him.

I see two issues you have not addressed. First, both Festa and Lee are not on 40 man roster, so you need to decided who will go 60 man or DFA for those 2. Keep in mind if they walk or get taken off waivers after DFA you cannot call them up should you need. Second, you cannot put a guy on IL unless they are injured, the MLBPA would have a fit if you put a guy on IL simply because you felt like it. Although both Kepler and Larnach have been battling injuries have not heard about Paddock or Theilabar being injured, they may be and I just missed it. Really, the 40 man you need to decide how to fix that.

I was a little surprised at CC rank and numbers. You can clearly tell he is doing better this year than last. When I read how they come up with the number, "The SABR Defensive Index draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts, including data from MLBAM’s Statcast, Sports Info Solutions, and STATS Perform." I wonder, how much the battle ball data effects things based on shift done by team. Does it equal out, or not? Meaning, in a traditional defense, a ball hit in the slightly to the right of SS would be an out most of the time, but if that defender is shifted up the middle, a ball hit in same spot will not be defended, but reverse where ball hit right up middle used to be a hit, now is an out. How much does positioning take into account? Additionally, how much does a nice tag on a player account, as the article points out. CC does a crazy job of tagging the head first slider, on the leg or even foot well away from the base than to try to meet the slider at the base, sometimes allowing for a swim move. I have not watched every game super close, but I do not feel like CC defense is negative, at least from what I have seen. Again, eyes can get it wrong though, it is very possible it is lower range that hurts him. It seems like these numbers can change quickly based on how quicky guys moved up at times.

It is crazy to think where he would be if COVID shut down and his injuries had not happened. I would love to see Twins offer a Bobby Witt type extension, because he seems like the type of guy that will hit into his late 30's. The team is under little pressure to really try to lock up though because he is arb eligible through age 29 season. He does not have a reason to sign away FA years though because it will eat into his overall possible deal. I could see, unless things change in the next few years, him still getting a 9 to 11 year deal from a top market team at age 30.

I think Sabato could do similar to Rooker. Both bat only college guys. Rooker made debut in 2020, but that was 7 games due to injury and short season. Then we thought he had it, and in 2021 we learned he still was a work in progress. He was 26 that season. At age 27 season he bounced around a few teams AAA and MLB and did nothing MLB level. Finally, the real life Major League actively trying to lose Oakland A's brought him at age 28. He had an out of the this world April, and then rest of ugh season. Now 29 Rooker is doing decent. He will never get a long term second deal, he may not even get through his arb years, but he is playing MLB ball. I could see Sabato making similar run in his late 20's getting a few okay seasons from either us or another team that needs to fill holes in roster with cheap guys. Will he be an all-star ever, doubtful, but could he have a hot few months yeah. Luke Raley is another guy, that at age 28 finally got a long run and put up some good numbers for a month or two. We have a need at 1b possibly in the future so if we could get something like that out of him I would take it.

Why would Vlad sign that deal? He is making nearly 20 mil this year and will get raise, how arb works next year. So he would take a pay cut for at least 1 year? Doubtful. He would be more like to take his arb year, make over 20 mil, then try to get long term deal and at worse do short term because he is young enough that he could enter FA again around 29 to 30 and seek 6 year deal if he bounces back.

Personally, at this point not sure why people are high on Vlad Jr. I get he has history of doing well, and very well could bounce back, but he has been a first half player in his career, he is not a good defender at 1B, and he is costly. We would most likely bring him back next for more than this year. The question would be how much money would Twins get from Jays, and what would we need to give up. This season Vlad is putting up similar numbers to Santana. So I ask, why give up prospects, to get an offense guy that is hitting similar to who we have with same level defense? Additionally, if you feel you need the offense upgraded over Santana, we have Miranda to fill in and have poor defense at first. Vlad is still very young and may just be a bump in the road, but there is a reason his numbers are not good, compared to career numbers, and there may be underlying injury that take him out for long term second half too. Overall, Vlad last 2 seasons have been dropping off from his first few seasons. Last year was not terrible, but outside of 2021 and 2022, his career has been just above average offense. Vlad has a ton of risk, and think would cost too much in prospects and missed opportunities next year for what it will cost in arb money to bring back.

I agree the calling injury when getting demoted was most likely a move by AK to keep getting service time. It will burn some bridges in FO. However, you also appear to be hinting at both AK and Joe Ryan lying about said injuries and they are just making things up to account for poor performances. In terms of Ryan pretty sure the data supports what was relayed, being he was great for long stretch last year, then he was terrible, which is when he reported the injury came up, after rest he comes back and is good again. He did have 2 not good starts in September out of 6. AK has been similar, when he reports he is fully healthy he seems to before well, but then he reports he has various injuries, which hurts his performance. That is most likely true. The problem is those injuries come up too often for him and it really hurts his overall performance.

Royce is doing some crazy things. If he can stay healthy he could take us very far for next several years. However, he, similar to Buck, has shown a great ability to get hurt in many different ways. Lets hope they were mostly flukes now and behind him.

Is it actual adjustments, or is it the fact his shoulder is healthy? I get it was his back shoulder and not his lead swing shoulder, but there is no way you can tell me that having pain in your shoulder with every swing did not affect it last year. There was the article the other day about players and playing through injuries and he was one trying to play through a shoulder injury last year and clearly did not go well.

Lee would play 2nd most likely. Then Castro will be freed to move back to OF. Really if Kepler goes down, Lee could be the call up and you use Castro mainly as OF.

In baseball, HURT is basically INJURED more often than not. Because when the smallest of adjustment to a swing or pitch means the difference between good or bad result. Your body will, as a reflex, adjust what you are doing to avoid pain, even when just HURT, which will cause your swing or pitching to be off. INJURED in other sports are that you cannot do the activity you are supposed to be doing. In football defense players have been known to play with broken hands because even though it will lower their chance of getting an interception or fumble recovery, they can do their main goal of tackling or breaking up a pass. Running backs can play with hurt upper body because their legs are still good they can adjust. Just think about when you have a little bit of pain you have a little wince and move ever so slightly, maybe just a tiny bit, but when moving the bat just a tiny bit will be difference between a barrel and a soft contact or miss completely.

I think younger non-established players will feel more internal pressure, even more so someone like AK, to play through pain. One, they do not want someone else to come in and take their spot, just as happened last year when Larnach and Polanco came in, Wallner and Julien came in and took the spot from them. Both this year played themselves back to AAA, but they played well enough to force team to roll with them rest of the way. CC was getting paid at a level he will not get put down the pecking order for a long time. When a young player gets passed in pecking order it gets hard to get back to top. Ryan last year should have said something sooner. I can get trying to pitch through it one game or two to see, but clearly he was off and he should have brought it up sooner. So should have AK this year, but I can understand why he tried to play through it. The problem is in baseball, little injuries affects performance so much more than in other sports, in my opinion. That is because the margin for error is so small when you compare it to other sports. When you have a little pain, or a lot, it will cause you to adjust your throw, or swing to try to stop the pain, it is a reflex of the body and little you can do to stop it. This then causes you to not be good with location in pitches, or swing and miss squaring up the ball when hitting. I think the team could do a better job of approaching players though when they can tell something is off and try to find out if injuries are the issue.

Good for Sabato on his hot run. If he can have a good rest of the season he may get a chance to take a first base/dh roll for a few years. He may have just been a real late bloomer. I know very SSS so not getting to excited but with AK never being able to be healthy, there will be a spot soon.

The organizational shift under this front office has clearly shown an ability to get college arms and push them to the next level. This is now getting set up similar to Cleveland, which really was the goal. To continue to have 1 to 2 guys each year that will hopefully step in when needed to make some good starts. It allows you to not overpay for pitchers in FA or via trades. There are many guys that could they have avoided injuries may have had larger impacts too by this point. Projecting pitching is one of the hardest things to do. Some of the "best" arms in drafts that go early in drafts never make majors or fizzle out quickly in majors where pitchers drafted much later turn into good MLB pitchers. Many times it is injury and lack of growth of secondary pitches that lead to it. I do think there should be a rule though, never draft a Rice pitcher. That team will burn up the kids arm by end of college and they always need many surgeries when they get out of college.

Going into the 2022 season we knew we needed a long term answer at SS. Lewis was top prospect but still not ready and not sure if he was going to stick there long term. There was a big class of free agent SS coming up. Correa, Seagar, Semien(if you want to count him but he signed as a 2nd baseman, but I will not include in this because he has not played any SS) Baez and Story. There were debates on who Twins should go after, many thought Story would be their target. Seagar signed the 10 year deal CC was looking for. Baez and Story each got 6 year deals, and we did the basically 1 year deal with CC. We then got to do it all over again in 2023 as CC opted out. Then the question was would we go after a SS or trust in Lewis if needed with someone like Farmer as stop gap until Lewis was back from injury. Would we go after CC, or one of the other big names, Turner, Bogarts, Swanson. Turner signed 11 year deal, mostly for tax purposes to extend out his deal, he will be 40 when deal is up, Bogarts got surprising 11 year deal with Padres, again tax reason for length, and Swanson got 7 years with Cubs. We got CC on 6 years, but with team options should he not be healthy. Who has been the best of these options so far? Who has been not up to par? I am going to do quick bWAR comparison without a big deep dive. Lets look at the 2022 crop first. Cory Seagar in 2022 put up 3.8. CC put up 5.3, Story, who played 2nd base that season, put up 2.5 and Baez 2.4. By that quick one year bWAR, CC was the best of the group. Looking at 2023 crop, CC put up 1.4 Turner put up 3.4 Bogarts put up 4.4 and Swanson put up 4.8. The 2022 long term contract, Seagar put up 6.9, Story put up 0.8 and Baez put up 0.6. This year, CC has 2.5, Seagar has 2.2, Story has 0.2 and out for the season, Turner has 1.6, Bogarerts has -0.1 and Swanson has 0.6, and Baez has -1.4. In total, CC has 9.2 over two plus seasons. Seagar has 12.9 over two plus seasons. Story has 3.5 over three seasons, being he is out rest of third season. Baez has 1.6 over two plus seasons. Seagar wins the 2022 class, even more so because he has a ring too. For the 2023 class CC has 3.6. Turner has 5. Bogarerts has 4.3. Swanson has 5.4. So far Swans has been slightly best and CC has been worst, but in part due to his terrible first year with being hurt. If CC continues like he has he very well may overtake the others after this year. Without comparing contracts, I would say Seager is the best option, so far, but CC is a close second overall. They sure dodged a bullet with Story or Baez if either were considered though. It sure did not look good after last year that CC was on a down turn, but he has having great first half this year.

Fans voting for All stars means nothing about who should be an all-star. Also requiring one from each team is a dumb rule too.

Using fan voting for all-star to decide how someone is rated is a terrible way to determine over or underrated. I remember one year KC had like 7 players leading in fan voting despite some of them being low .200 hitters. The vote had nothing to do with the players ability or how fans view them. CC will have lower votes because for better or worse he is the face of the Astros cheating team. He still gets booed most places he goes. It is generally hard to talk about if a player is over or underrated, even more so now, because just as article points out, different people rate based on different things. I do not feel Arraez is overrated by many because he does not get talked about as an MVP, got a few down ballot votes last couple of years but last year he had .861 OPS, not MVP but not bad either. Either way, it is not like people are talking about how great his defense is or how he is the best overall player in the game. For me, an overrated player is where the talk does not fit the perception overall. Sometimes it is they live off the past performances, but more often for me, it is their defense is lauded when it is not backed up by actual output. If people where saying Arraez was a great defender I would agree he would be very overrated. However, the talk on him is he is one of the best hitters in the game, which he is, his batting average reflects that. He hits and gets on, with limited extra base hits. He gets and extra base hit in about once every 4 to 5 hits. I think where some talked about CC being overrated, was he was talked about after 2021 being best defending SS in game, but then that dropped off a ton. Also, last year he had poor offense season for most part. This year he is having huge bounce back on both sides in my opinion, most likely because his foot is healthy.

No way do you trade a pitching prospect for a rental first baseman that really would DH more than play first. He is a negative defender. Also, his offense this year overall is not that much better than who we have at first, Carlos Santana. Giving up a pitching prospect for that is crazy. You need so many pitchers over a season and over years due to injuries that losing a guy you should have in and out of rotation for 6 years for a possible tiny upgrade is a no for me. I would be fine with AK and one lower level prospect that is not a pitcher. The main issue is I just do not feel Alonzo is enough of an upgrade at first or DH to give up much for him.

He very well may have been having back issues, the kid has hit when fully healthy, which is not often. Normally when he hits terrible we learn he was battling some injury, wrist, shoulder, and now back. The issue is, he does not tell the team early enough to either address it, or to relay why he is having issues. Like with CC last year he played most games, did not do amazing but we knew he was hurt the whole time and the team would manage best they could. I get AK is not established, and there are many trying to take his playing time, but to hit poorly for weeks then come out and say it was my back all along either is a poor excuse or poor communication to the team. It is generally shellfish of him, and he may have been trying to power through but at times he was hurting the team.

The Mets already signed Lindor to his contract before CC. It is not like they pivoted from CC to Lindor. That being said, the article is very short sited to a SSS over a long contract. To say because he is on a very hot streak that teams that balked are upset when there are years left to play out. I am sure last year they were not upset because he was hurt and played ehh. This year he has been much better, and closer to the guy we were hoping for. However, there are still years left to pay him, lets see how he is doing 2 years down the road before we see if the long term deal was good or not.

I doubt any are members. Might some get on and read an article, most likely. I read long ago that a Tampa Bay Rays site similar to this, had a guy who was posting all kinds of things about players and what not. The Rays front office contacted him to sign him because they like what he had to say about players and analytics. This was before so much of the info was just available. Not sure if true, but seems plausible.