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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I fully agree it is so hard to predict how a HS are will develop and even harder with 16 year old. We never know if a kid is done growing, will he fill out, and how will his arm hold up as he ages. Even for hitters that young it is hard to predict and some times the top paid guy is the best in class, but other times the lower end paid guy is. I point to Juan Soto signing class. He signed 1.5 Tatis Jr. signed 700K, we signed Wander Javier for 4 mil, Vlad Jr. Signed for 3.9, Gilberto Cellisto signed for 2.5, Andres Gimminez signed 1.2. There were several that signed for 2 plus and very few ever made majors is my point but guys that paid much less did much better sooner than later too. Signing a 16 year old kid is a crap shoot that he will ever be anything in the future.
  2. Trov
    Texas is not selling in my opinion. They are 5.5 out of their division race and 7 out of wild card. They just won a WS last year and have a team built to win in playoffs. They may even buy at the deadline if anything. They spent a ton of money last few years to keep winning not selling and rebuilding. Even the guys that are FA at end of year they are not likely to trade away unless it is for MLB ready talent now or very soon.
  3. Trov
    I agree about the importance of Catchers, which is why you see some catchers like Vasquez still have jobs despite being terrible at plate. Most of the time teams take top hitting catchers off the position because it is hell on your knees, and cuts your career short for most players and saps their offense. Only the HOF guys can stick it out and be good on offense. Rarely do you see a guy with good arm move to catcher, but more often they get moved off the position. If you can be a good catcher and stick there it is an easier path to majors, but it is a hard way to get there because of the wear and tear on body. Not just the knees, but all the foul tips into face, onto hand, legs, everywhere.
  4. Trov
    The returning pitchers are the only ones that would affect trade deadline plans. If both return and can pitch to expectations there is little need for a high leverage arm from right side. We would still need upgrade from left side. The position players are covered by our depth. It may allow us to use some of our depth to trade for a pitcher if needed though.
  5. Trov
    This is more for fun, but imagine if the Reentry Rule was in place at MLB level. Players that have good platoon advantages would get a huge boost. For example, right now we have Matt Wallner, and Manuel Margot on our team. They are both huge platoon advantage guys. Wallner crushes RH pitching overall, and is about as bad a pitcher used to be when they hit against LH. Margot is not quite as powerful against LH pitchers, but has above average OPS, this year .829, but is terrible against RH. We have other strong splits out there too. It has happened less this year, but last year, Rocco would sub out the platoon guys the first chance he could, sometimes making the next 1 or 2 at bats not good. So lets allow a couple of reentry moves. Not just for at-bats, but running bases too. Lets get some more fun in the game always letting a guys top skill be seen, and stop making their worst skills be seen. Who cares that it will make pitching moves pointless we want offense. Let the Twins sub out Wallner against LH guy only to bring back in later in game when a RH is on the mound.
  6. Trov
    Well, are those 80 ab's against lefties? I would not want to see a single at bat of Wallner against a leftie over Margot. I agree Wallner looks good in his 2 games and crushed several balls against righties. but Margot still has a .OPS of .829 against lefties this year. Margot is terrible against righties. They are like the perfect platoon guys. So if Wallner is hitting against RH, him all day. If a LH is on mound Margot over Wallner all day.
  7. Trov
    That Wallner HR was crazy hard hit. I know just 2 games back but he looks like the guy that had a good second half last year. Hopefully he is up here for good the rest of the year hitting balls so hard it may tear the glove off defenders hand if they do touch it.
  8. Trov
    He made good adjustment to start year, now league is adjusting to him again, and he needs to adjust to that. He has shown and ability to hit at this level, but will he be a star, doubtful. He is the classic DH corner outfield guy that if he is average hitter he is not worth much. Kepler is average hitter but plays great defense. Wallner, when hitting like he can, is a plus hitter and has more value than Larnach. We have several other guys that could fill in for Larnach and not be out much. I was happy what he was doing this year overall, but clearly he is fading from his hot start.
  9. Trov
    I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts. I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed. Not sure what the ask would be. It really is a sellers market right now. In the NL only 2 teams are fully out of playoff chance. There are several teams that are not likely to be buyers, depending on what happens next couple of weeks but may not be full fire sale either. In AL there are 3 teams fully out of it, 2 teams that are pretty much out, Toronto being one of them, and 4 teams within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Texas is one of them and I bet they look to buy to give a push because they have a roster that can win in playoffs if they get there. Top end pitching if healthy and can be a strong offense.
  10. Trov
    Tim Anderson was overrated in my opinion. He hit very well, but was terrible fielder. I am not surprised as his huge drop off in his age. He is the classic average MLB player. Came up at 23, really had good years in 26 to 29 peak years, then drops of quickly. One issue though is he is known for having poor clubhouse presence and attitude so will not have too many more chances.
  11. Trov
    Biggest surprise for me is the long streaks at the beginning of the year, both losing and winning streaks. They have got back to a more consistent 2 out of 3 type thing. Not sure how often a team has streaks as long as they had on both sides in a season. I am would who deserves the most credit is FO for not overreacting to slow start and building good depth. Lopez has been a little disappointing, but his FIP is much lower than his ERA suggesting some better outcomes in future. I expect we will make postseason, at minimum as wild card, but feel like we could catch Cleveland. Cleveland has historically faded in second half in past few years. They have a top heavy line up that a couple of guys are playing well above their career norms. They have a good pen, but with poor starters that pen will start to get overworked.
  12. Trov
    Lee looks to be very solid hitter. He has had a bit of luck so far, but he has hit a few solid hard hits too. The ball he got a hit on yesterday where Altuve bobbled the ball, first called error, then a hit, would most likely been an out had Altuve left it for Pena. Lee has had a few other slow rollers just in the right spot. However, He has not struck out much and gives himself a chance to get a hit. He could be hitting about .300 if his soft rollers were stopped and not just made it through. He made a great play at 3rd yesterday, playing back and came in on a bunt attempt for a hit. It was not a great attempt, but Lee was back on dirt. Lee nailed him by plenty. He for sure looks ready to play every day this level, and think when Lewis is ready Farmer will get shopped or DFA.
  13. Trov
    In regards tot he 2022 numbers, assuming we would have added him to 40 man and called up in September, if he had similar numbers, Steer slashed .211/.306/.632 for OPS+ of 74. Guessing that would not have added much wins for us. Assuming he does replace Solano on the 2023 roster, again not clear that would have happened being we had other guys on roster ranked ahead of him on prospect list as well. Lets assume he would have broke camp and got all the at-bats Solano got. Steer would have produced more offense, as he had more slugging and much more HR, but he got on base less often, and his defense was worse. Overall, it would have been net gain, but not a huge increase. Additionally, we do not know how this would have affected other moves the team made. Maybe Julien never gets a call up because Steer is playing instead if he is on team, and he had higher OPS+ then Steer last year. Would Steer have been possible upgrade last year over who we used, possible, but would we have just went with him out of camp like Reds did, doubtful. There is good chance he would have stayed in AAA all year, depending what he was doing down there.
  14. Trov
    Steer may or may not be part of Reds long term plan. He is getting at bats, but still not locked into a position. He has played half LF and half 1B mainly. I disagree with the claim the trade will only look worse as time passes, unless you are only looking at WAR. You need to also remember, Steer was not on 40 man that year, he would have had to be put on 40 man the next year, which may have cost a different prospect. Additionally, if we keep Steer and he does what he is doing, slightly above average hitter, do we feel different players are tradable then? Would we trade Julien away, and what if Julien turns out to be the better player down the road, unless the player or players we get in return of Julien int he hypothetical were that much better would it have been better to keep Steer. Each move affects other moves. If we keep Steer and CES, and do not trade them elsewhere, do we lose them in rule 5, do we lose someone else in rule 5, or do we trade away a different player to allow them to get playing time, or do we just leave them in AAA? I am not saying we clearly got the raw end of the trade being we almost nothing from Mahle, but my point is to say the trades on the list were bad because we got less bWAR from the players coming versus going out is not a good way to evaluate a trade as a whole. I used Steer as an example because he has been the most productive for a guy we sent out mostly.
  15. Trov
    I fully agree Steer could have been used in potential other trade, and sucks Mahle got hurt right away for us. However, without knowing what other options there were with Steer hard to determine that as well.
  16. Trov
    It is nice to see guys put up some good numbers to start to push for chances in next year or too. You can never have too much pitching as guys get hurt or fall off production.
  17. Trov
    Pretty easy to predict based on current roster and no injuries setting in. Personally, I see 1st base as a possible move by Twins in offseason again. No one on our current roster are considered strong defenders there, and unless they rake like crazy having average offense and bad defense is not good combo at 1st. In addition, so many of these guys are pushing each other could get traded in off-season, or at deadline.
  18. Trov
    It is interesting they had Eeles jump AA and not move someone from AA up to AAA and him up to AA though. What I take from it is they see Eeles as a career minor league guy actually where others they want a more linier growth in their moving up leagues. With Eeles skipping AA, for now, may be more of just need that he can fill more, or was closer to St. Paul to fill in.
  19. Trov
    The issue I have with this is you are only using comparison bWAR, which is a poor way to assess a trade. Specifically, look at the Mahle for Steer and CES trade. Steer has decent bWAR, but we do not know if he would have had a chance to put up that bWAR with Twins. He is limited on defense to either 2nd, 1st, or LF for most part. At the time, Polanco was starter at 2nd, Arraez was 1st base/LF guy, really similar defense profile to Steer. Miranda was 1st/DH guy coming doing good rookie year. AK was still thought to be possible 1st base when healthy, and DH/LF was Larnach, Wallner on prospect list, and Nick Gordon was doing okay filling in left. Also, in minors we had Julien, Lee, and Martin who were ranked high prospects than Steer. Would Steer have even made our 40 man? Who was he going to clearly be ahead of? Yes, as things played out he may have been able to do 2nd or 1st last year because of injuries and the like, or some LF too. However, that is not certain. Same is for many of the other position players that were traded in these deals, we have no clue how much they would have played for us, because you need to see who they would have played instead of. Yeah, overall we have not got a ton of our "buying" moves, but most of them were not big time moves where we gave up big time prospects either. The worst and what was the biggest swing was Lopez. He as having career year at the time and we overpaid for a guy that made transition to pen and was doing great. That is the only one where we could use Cano, who figured it out in Baltimor and Pavich right now. Outside of those 2 I am not sure anyone else would make contributions much at MLB level for us.
  20. Trov
    I feel Morris will need to move way up prospect lists this year. He is doing even better in AA than in High A this year. I know much of prospect lists are ceiling and hype and 4 year college guys will not get much of that, but he is still 22, will be 23 in a couple months.
  21. Trov
    I wrote a forum on this exact thing the other week. Glad Ted took it and ran with it. I think CC was the right one for us. We were not going to get Seager and Turner contract was too long. Why did you not include Xander Bogaerts, he signed as a SS for Padres in 2023 on an 11 year deal. It has not worked out well this year so far, last year was ehh.
  22. Trov
    Dyson there was rumblings that SF hid arm issues, or at minimum Dyson was hiding it from team. Mahle had pitched a full season year prior and only missed a couple of starts in the year we traded for him. He had history early in career, and had a IL stint a couple weeks prior to trade but to expect missing rest of that season and basically the whole next was not something teams were expecting.
  23. Trov
    The contract that was signed was very much set up based on his possible value, but with taking into account his long history of injuries. I fully expect a few more stints on IL this year. However, if we can make playoffs and he be healthy and hot, he is the type that can carry a team through a playoff series. We have yet to see him be healthy in the playoffs, let alone be hot. On the flip side, he can get so cold that you just shake your head at his swinging at sliders low and away three straight times. I do feel the team did him a huge disservice when he was coming up, making all kinds of changes to his swing every time he had a slump.
  24. Trov
    He has pitched against the playoff teams he would expect to face this year. He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against Cleveland, they got all 3 on a 3 run HR. It was his second game of year. He faced Yankees, best offense in league, or 1 run behind Baltimore for most runs scored at least, and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings pitched, not good, but not wheels falling off. He has faced other top half offense teams and done well. Is he a lock down Ace, no, but I would trust him this year in a playoff game. He clearly has worked on his other pitches.
  25. Trov
    When I saw the headline I was thinking the article would have several terrible ideas about who to trade to, but it was at least some thought into it. The Philly idea makes the most sense overall. However, the issue is that Kepler has very little value in trade. He is league average hitter, that plays good to great defense. Yes, he has had hot runs in his history but outside of his second half last, and no playoff output, he has never had long run of success but more so just a few weeks at a time. Corner outfield spots are easy to fill. Just as the article points out we have much depth there. Not many teams that are buying will give up much MLB ready talent for him on a rental. He also will not be getting QO, because he would be a fool to turn it down. I agree it makes sense to trade Kepler to get something for him if you feel you can replace him for rest of year, but he will not fetch much of a return.
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