Trov

I am sure Taylor could have signed with a team by now, but my guess he is trying to hold for more or a more particular type team. In terms of the 4 big names, I could be wrong but I believe all have the same agent, Boras, who is known to hold strong late. I think each are seeking contracts longer and at higher value than they should get. Chapman is 30 years old, and his second half last year was just not good. If you take away his April his season was terrible. His July was okay, but outside those two months his OPS was around .600, not a superstar. He is a good defender, but how much should you pay for a good defending 3rd baseman that is subpar offense and on wrong side of 30? He may not have another all-star year in him. Bellinger is hoping to cash in on his make good year last year. He will be 29 most of this season, he had same bWAR as Chapman, 4.4 but his is from offense not defense. Several years ago he was MVP at 23 then injuries set in and he had several bad years. He got the 1 year deal from Cubs and did well. However, he is seeking an MVP type contract, and I doubt many teams willing to give him more than 3 to 4 years. He has not shown he warrants a deal that goes into his last 30's. Even this last year he had 2 great months, 2 good months and 2 bad months. For Snell he is 31, has been above average pitcher most of his career, but not been cy young level most of his career. His FIP was 3.44(also his career FIP) while ERA was 2.25, this suggest some luck. He has only had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 129 innings, last year and 2018, both his best seasons and cy young years. He can be a great pitcher, but his health has been an issue, and he is aging. If he is seeking anything more than 4 years, he will be waiting. Montgomery also 31 and also left handed like Snell. Unlike Snell he has never even been in top 10 for cy young award and mainly is a good but not great starter. He is seeking ace type money, like Snell, but really outside of his run in Texas after the trade, but his career is one of a good pitcher but never a number 1 type guy. Personally, he would be the one between him and Snell I would rather go after, just because he has been consistent in his career, pitching most of the season with consistent numbers overall. Snell has much more upside, but he also has been injured a ton. That is why none of them have signed because they are seeking mega star contracts but all have big questions about long term deals being a huge risk.

It is Wallner's to lose, barring any other trades. Against lefties he will not start too often, if at all, but I think they need to give him some run against lefties, at least in the spring, to see how he can do if he can be full time and not just platoon guy.

"Last year, the Twins gave themselves some ability to withstand unfortunate circumstances should they arise. This time around, they are threading a needle and need to be nearly perfect" I find this statement interesting. Last year we entered the season with Gray, who was always considered good, but may not have been cy young for a long time. Lopez was coming off a down year. We had Mahle who we expected to be healthy, Maeda who was coming off TJ and we had no clue what to expect, and really took half the year to be decent. First half of season pitched 33 innings with ERA of 5.18. Then we had Ryan, and two or three guys in minors we were hoping could step up if needed, Ober, Varland, and SWR. After Mahle went down, and Maeda was injured first half, Ober stepped up be very good, and Varland filled in just fine. SWR struggled and never got much run at MLB level. After Maeda returned healthy Varland moved to pen. We also brought in Keuchel for 6 starts at end of year. So this year we have Lopez, with higher expectations, Ober with higher expectations, Ryan with similar expectations, a guy comming of TJ that we have no clue what will get in Paddock, similar to Maeda, and either Varland or aging vet for 5th starter. Then we have a couple of guys in minors, either Varland, SWR, Headrick, or Festa to step up if needed. Really, I do not see much difference in last years plans and this years plans, we have hopefully 3 proven guys, an injury bounce back, a question mark, and guys in wings that are questions. Really, the only difference from where we were last year and this year is Mahle who we expected more from and did not get it. I mean we were talking last year of trading Maeda and let Ober do his thing, or Maeda out of pen to start year, at least I recall people on here posting on that. Just like last year, if Ober failed and Varland failed we would have been in rough shape. We will need to go to other pitchers than top 5 some time this year, question is how much and how will they do. They need to get a shot at some point. If SWR, Festa, and Varland fail when they get their shot it will not be good, but same as last year really. So no our rotation has not really fallen from what plan was last year. I think people are looking back at the results that worked out from last year and saying we are in trouble this year because we do not have as much depth, but our depth is basically the same. Varland and Ober were not proven pitchers last year when they got their run. You never get to "ease" a stater into the game if you are fighting for first place. Only rebuilding teams have the luxury of easing guys into playing at MLB. Sometimes you need to throw them in the deep end.

I see the team keeping him FL out of spring mainly to have the bigger facility and warmer weather to keep working on things. Then, unless injury or poor performance, he will move to to high A end of May. If he crushes there I could see him get to AA by end of July. The hype on the kid is crazy, and I hope he can make it there.

The splits right versus left is not as big of a deal as people might try to make. That is mainly due to just SSS. If it carries into next year then maybe there is an issue there. However, at 104 at bats, if he gets a few hits over his next 10 at bats his numbers will jump up a bit. I am not concerned yet, but will be something to look at down the road. Also, many switch hitters will flip flop from one season to next on which side is better. Just look at Polanco who was referenced, in 2023 he was better against lefties, in 2022 he was much better against righties, and in 2021 he was about even. For his career he has a better OBP against righties. Point is one season of a lower number does not make him unable to hit from that side.

I get fans being upset with reduced payroll, but in part payroll was going to be reduced by transitioning to younger guys. Payroll will need to go up as more players get to arb years in coming seasons, and unless we get 1 or 2 year deals on vets now then it would help prevent singing down the road. Also, signing some vets to even a 1 or 2 year deal now, could cause us to lose the younger guy because of 40 man roster moves. There is so much that goes into building a team. If you look just at one season it can hurt you down the road.

I am glad they added the bonus for having your young guys break camp with ya and rewarded for doing well. That being said, I find it unlikely Lee will break camp, barring a super hot spring and injuries, and I also find it unlikely lee will win ROY over Holliday, unless Holliday gets hurt or really is over his head.

I can understand the K-rate and not swinging often will be an issue, but it may be he is looking for pitches in certain areas and if he does not get it he will take it. It could be he just needs to work on the plan at the plate to attack certain pitches. If he starts taking too many pitches in the zone that are good pitches to hit that will become an issue. However, you give him credit for not chasing, it could be he just will not swing at borderline pitches.

That is a big no for me dog on Bauer. The man is terrible clubhouse guy. He once threw the ball from the mound into outfield because he was pulled from game. There has been many stories about how teams did not get along with him. He reminds me a lot of Josh Donaldson when it comes to willing to talk and stir the pot. He got sent out from Arizona, despite being a top pick because he refused to change the way he did things. Maybe he knew what he was talking about, being he put up good numbers, but Cleveland also traded him in middle of playoff race when he was one of their top 2 or 3 pitchers at the time, with no clear replacement. What team does that unless there is a big issue with the guy? I can only imagine the things that go on behind the scenes. I mean, Dodgers were paying him millions to not pitch even though he could have returned. Finally, outside 2 elite seasons, he has not put up amazing numbers over his 10 year career. He is 33 now, have not pitched in MLB for 2.5 seasons. His career numbers good not great. To me he has wayyyyyy too much risk to take a pass on. There is a reason no other team is willing to either, despite everyone always needing pitching. Not even a low budget team taking him at min, hoping he has a good first half to trade for something.

The top FA are seeking very long term deals, and so far no team has been willing to bite. The fact that Twins will have a 1 year TV deal does not make money down the road more secure. I am sure if Twins could get either Snell or Montgomery for a 1 or 2 year deal they would look to do it, but both are looking for 5 plus year deals. At 31 years old that will be a risky sign of either. Until they sign, trades for top pitchers will be harder to figure out because teams looking to sign Snell or Montgomery may have trade as a fallback, but if they sign, then that limits the amount of people looking to trade. The FO has long been known to wait out the market to not overpay. However, if the market for Burnes was what they got in return we really should have kicked the tires on a trade like that more. We could have matched that deal for sure, unless Brew Crew felt better about the return than most other people. It also sounds like most teams are balking at trading their young starting pitchers.

I do not know if Twins will look to flip him, but from what I read he seems to be a guy that will be aggressive at plate and can hit pitches in all zones. The question for him will be can he make enough contact when pitchers start throwing nothing but breaking pitches that break out of the zone, or will he be able to stay off them. I am not one that says a player cannot be successful at MLB level if they expand the zone, but it is very rare. There are some that have had HOF careers and have been known to expand the zone. Again, they had super star abilities to do it. The big issue is either committing one way or the other in my opinion. If you are going to be a guy that chases out of the zone then do it, and work on making good contact when doing it. It is the swinging at a breaking pitch in dirt that you cannot hit, or swinging at a pitch like it is fastball when it is way out of the zone that becomes issues.

I would love to see him get the chance to go deeper into games this year. Let him see a line up 2 to 3 times through and how he does. I would hope he starts at AA and let him pitch 5 plus innings a game. I get he can develop on the side, but you only get the in game working a line up multiple times by doing it. If he never needs to learn how to pitch to a guy a second or third time, and work on setting them up for later in the game, then he will be set up to fail if we ask that of him down the road at MLB level.

It is so nice to see guys late in draft rise up to be legit prospects. It really goes to show how hard it is to predict pitching. Clearly the Twins have found a way to identify guys they can add velo to. If he was throwing upper 90's in college, no way does he drop to 13th round. I would not worry about the walks in his SSS in AAA as going to a robo ump will take time to adjust.

I have long said that in baseball the "chemistry" of the team is more important that any other sport. Having leaders and having teammates you want to play for and make sacrifices for team success goes a long way. Unlike other sports, or jobs, these 26 plus players will see each other just about every day, for most of the day, from mid-February, to what we hope is late October. They get no weekends away from each other. For the off-days on the road you are still basically with them. If you do not like each other, it makes it hard on your mental health, and the mental game in baseball is huge. When a player is willing to play a different position, that could hurt their long term financial value in FA, but they do it because best for team, that helps the team. When a player does the little things to help the team win, but may hurt their personal numbers, that may hurt their financial future, but the players know they are for the team. When each player know the other will sacrifice for the team, not pass blame on others, and do what it takes to help the team, it generally makes all players step up.

Pitchers are always the hardest to project, and to predict long term success. Some pitchers will be one of best in league for several seasons then after one off-season they become one of the worst. Then some will go the other way, or the flip happens in the season too. This can happen to hitters too, but hitters generally have a bell curve to their career numbers, and rarely have a fall off the cliff. Pitchers, generally have a cliff they fall off, except for HOF type guys. Not saying Balazovic is done for a MLB career, but he fell off a cliff at a young age, before MLB debut, and he needs to make some changes quickly. This is also why you can never have too much pitching because year to year you never know what you will get.

Twins dealt from a position of depth, and most likely made best deal they could. 2nd basemen that are subpar defenders are not super high in demand. Polanco was great at times for Twins, but he is aging and on the wrong side of 30 now. Injuries will continue to pile up and his production will continue to decline. It is possible he has some good baseball still in him, but we have log jam in the infield and for his production overall compared to what we hope to get from other options the deal makes sense. Will it turn out to be a win win deal, maybe, or maybe one team gets hosed on the deal. However, to assume Polanco will have a significant better year than anyone we can replace him with, and all the players we got back in return will produce little to no value is going too far.

What is funny about SWR is if we posted just his July on numbers people would be super high on him. I get that we need to include his full season, but after June, he was 7-1 with 66 innings pitched, and ERA around 3.00 WHIP about 1.200, strike outs not amazing, but was clearly doing much better overall. Yes, his first half was terrible, but hopefully for him he can build off that second half. He was also 5 years younger than average player in AAA too.

Pens are so up and down. Very few pen guys will always be a top guy. Stewart last year came out of no where to have a good year. This year he may revert back and fail. I never predict pens because you just never know. They can even shift through the year going from terrible to great or vice versa with same pen.

Martin will not be a mega star, but if he can get on base near .400 and steal bases at a high clip and play good defense wherever he plays or possibly get moved around, he will have a nice career at the majors. As long as he has enough power to keep outfields honest he should be fine. People wanted him to be more than what he was by trying to turn him into a power hitter, and then when he did not develop power, everyone wrote him off, but a .400 OBP is still great even if mostly just walks and singles with the occasional double. With his speed he will get plenty of stolen bases.

What Lewis brings that numbers will not show is his desire to win, and his understanding of the situation. He has worked through many injuries, and hopefully no more really pop up. However, what really impressed me last year, not just the grand slams, but when he would come up late in games in big at bats he knew that a single may get it done so he wanted to make sure he got the ball in play. He got some hits that were not pretty, but he knew putting the ball in play is better than swinging for fence and missing when a single will get it done. He is willing to adjust to the situation, that is something superstars can do.

I find some of the things in the article misleading. First, the writer uses the term luxury tax payroll to determine spending. The writer does address the actual payroll for this year is nearly 138 million, but the article does not show Twins actual payroll. According to Spotrac Twins actual payroll is still higher than KC. This is because Witt's contract is very backloaded, but the luxury tax number is the overall annual value. So that right there is misleading in my opinion. KC is not outspending the Twins this year of actual money being spent. Second, the writer uses the TV market as a basis for why the Twins should be spending more, but then points out that KC is earning more from TV contract than Twins are, so that is a poor argument that the TV market is reflection on how much money a team is earning. It is true the attendance is up for Twins, but that by itself does not tell a story, because we do not know what the actual difference in paid attendance and how much of actual money coming in is. We also do not know a difference in concession sales as well. I am not saying KC is earning more than Twins, most likely not, but first to say the KC is spending more is just false, they are not spending more actual money in this years payroll. The contract that pushed KC past Twins in luxury number is backloaded so that down the line KC can cut costs elsewhere. Specifically, Witt earns 2 mil this year, 7 mil next year, 13 mil in 2026, 19 in 2027, and it is not until 2028 that he earns 30 mil. Then 2029 to 2034 he earns 35 mil, and two of those years he can start opting out. The contract was set up this way mainly so they can pay other players more now and keep payroll down, and down the road they will deal with the large payday, but they have a few years, when no other long term deals are on their books. Specifically Perez contract after 2025. Do you think they will sign a new guy for 22 mil in 2026 when Witt is getting paid 19 mil, doubtful.

I am wondering who said no first, or how the talks went. My guess Seattle said how much for both, we said one of their top young pitchers, either Gilbert or Kirby, and Seattle said no, so we said lets talk about just one of them then, and more willing to part with Polanco at this point. Had there been an offer that included either of the SP I think Twins should have listened more, but my guess Seattle said either were off the table from the jump.

The TV deal is expected to be at this point a single season, so really nothing for long term cash influx. No point in thinking of multi-year contracts if you are counting TV money in budget. Yes, the deal may add little to this years budget but any long term signings will not be affected because next offseason Twins will be in same boat. Report also talks about taking less than last year. My guess there will be a deal done, but will not have a ton of affect on signings unless for 1 year prove it deals, not sure if anyone out there for that.

It is hard to even put yourself in the shoes of someone who has to make that call. I think most people that are on the outside looking in would say take the for sure money. I mean 26 mil should be enough to live off of the rest of his life and if invested can be built on for his family down the road too. We hear players turning down insane amounts of money, like reports Soto turned down reported $440 mil, for something of more value. He is still doing just fine, set to hit FA if no extension with Yankees. He will earn at much if not more. But at that point is not so much about the money, but as Kirk said, what the money represents. I mean if Soto earns $440 mil or $500 mil is there much of a difference to how his life will be affected? No, most likely not. But if he is the highest paid player that means something to the player. As Fast Eddie said, "The 'best' is the guy with the most. It's the whole show. The best is the guy with the most in all walks of life." In this case, the guy with the most pay, is the best, that is why you turn down a smaller contract, to show you are worth more.

The assumption by the writer is that Polanco will be better than anyone who may replace him. I would disagree. As much as I have liked Polanco over the years, he is aging and getting hurt each of the last few years. Julien filled in last year just fine, and improved on his defense. Yes, he was unplayable against lefties. However, we have options. Farmer can play against lefties or Castro. If Polanco is in line up he is either playing 2nd moving Julien to first or one of them is DH. AK has been been consistent, but again we had options at first, possibly Miranda, if he can bounce back from injury plagued season. Lee could always get called up. I agree, outside the pen arm, we did not upgrade much for this season, but to just assume Polanco will be better than any replacements I have to disagree with that premise. The fact that Polanco has missed so much time lately with injuries, which tend to get worse as you get older, and he is going to be in age 30 season, I expect his production to go down.