Trov

Going into the 2022 season we knew we needed a long term answer at SS. Lewis was top prospect but still not ready and not sure if he was going to stick there long term. There was a big class of free agent SS coming up. Correa, Seagar, Semien(if you want to count him but he signed as a 2nd baseman, but I will not include in this because he has not played any SS) Baez and Story. There were debates on who Twins should go after, many thought Story would be their target. Seagar signed the 10 year deal CC was looking for. Baez and Story each got 6 year deals, and we did the basically 1 year deal with CC. We then got to do it all over again in 2023 as CC opted out. Then the question was would we go after a SS or trust in Lewis if needed with someone like Farmer as stop gap until Lewis was back from injury. Would we go after CC, or one of the other big names, Turner, Bogarts, Swanson. Turner signed 11 year deal, mostly for tax purposes to extend out his deal, he will be 40 when deal is up, Bogarts got surprising 11 year deal with Padres, again tax reason for length, and Swanson got 7 years with Cubs. We got CC on 6 years, but with team options should he not be healthy. Who has been the best of these options so far? Who has been not up to par? I am going to do quick bWAR comparison without a big deep dive. Lets look at the 2022 crop first. Cory Seagar in 2022 put up 3.8. CC put up 5.3, Story, who played 2nd base that season, put up 2.5 and Baez 2.4. By that quick one year bWAR, CC was the best of the group. Looking at 2023 crop, CC put up 1.4 Turner put up 3.4 Bogarts put up 4.4 and Swanson put up 4.8. The 2022 long term contract, Seagar put up 6.9, Story put up 0.8 and Baez put up 0.6. This year, CC has 2.5, Seagar has 2.2, Story has 0.2 and out for the season, Turner has 1.6, Bogarerts has -0.1 and Swanson has 0.6, and Baez has -1.4. In total, CC has 9.2 over two plus seasons. Seagar has 12.9 over two plus seasons. Story has 3.5 over three seasons, being he is out rest of third season. Baez has 1.6 over two plus seasons. Seagar wins the 2022 class, even more so because he has a ring too. For the 2023 class CC has 3.6. Turner has 5. Bogarerts has 4.3. Swanson has 5.4. So far Swans has been slightly best and CC has been worst, but in part due to his terrible first year with being hurt. If CC continues like he has he very well may overtake the others after this year. Without comparing contracts, I would say Seager is the best option, so far, but CC is a close second overall. They sure dodged a bullet with Story or Baez if either were considered though. It sure did not look good after last year that CC was on a down turn, but he has having great first half this year.

Fans voting for All stars means nothing about who should be an all-star. Also requiring one from each team is a dumb rule too.

Using fan voting for all-star to decide how someone is rated is a terrible way to determine over or underrated. I remember one year KC had like 7 players leading in fan voting despite some of them being low .200 hitters. The vote had nothing to do with the players ability or how fans view them. CC will have lower votes because for better or worse he is the face of the Astros cheating team. He still gets booed most places he goes. It is generally hard to talk about if a player is over or underrated, even more so now, because just as article points out, different people rate based on different things. I do not feel Arraez is overrated by many because he does not get talked about as an MVP, got a few down ballot votes last couple of years but last year he had .861 OPS, not MVP but not bad either. Either way, it is not like people are talking about how great his defense is or how he is the best overall player in the game. For me, an overrated player is where the talk does not fit the perception overall. Sometimes it is they live off the past performances, but more often for me, it is their defense is lauded when it is not backed up by actual output. If people where saying Arraez was a great defender I would agree he would be very overrated. However, the talk on him is he is one of the best hitters in the game, which he is, his batting average reflects that. He hits and gets on, with limited extra base hits. He gets and extra base hit in about once every 4 to 5 hits. I think where some talked about CC being overrated, was he was talked about after 2021 being best defending SS in game, but then that dropped off a ton. Also, last year he had poor offense season for most part. This year he is having huge bounce back on both sides in my opinion, most likely because his foot is healthy.

No way do you trade a pitching prospect for a rental first baseman that really would DH more than play first. He is a negative defender. Also, his offense this year overall is not that much better than who we have at first, Carlos Santana. Giving up a pitching prospect for that is crazy. You need so many pitchers over a season and over years due to injuries that losing a guy you should have in and out of rotation for 6 years for a possible tiny upgrade is a no for me. I would be fine with AK and one lower level prospect that is not a pitcher. The main issue is I just do not feel Alonzo is enough of an upgrade at first or DH to give up much for him.

He very well may have been having back issues, the kid has hit when fully healthy, which is not often. Normally when he hits terrible we learn he was battling some injury, wrist, shoulder, and now back. The issue is, he does not tell the team early enough to either address it, or to relay why he is having issues. Like with CC last year he played most games, did not do amazing but we knew he was hurt the whole time and the team would manage best they could. I get AK is not established, and there are many trying to take his playing time, but to hit poorly for weeks then come out and say it was my back all along either is a poor excuse or poor communication to the team. It is generally shellfish of him, and he may have been trying to power through but at times he was hurting the team.

The Mets already signed Lindor to his contract before CC. It is not like they pivoted from CC to Lindor. That being said, the article is very short sited to a SSS over a long contract. To say because he is on a very hot streak that teams that balked are upset when there are years left to play out. I am sure last year they were not upset because he was hurt and played ehh. This year he has been much better, and closer to the guy we were hoping for. However, there are still years left to pay him, lets see how he is doing 2 years down the road before we see if the long term deal was good or not.

I doubt any are members. Might some get on and read an article, most likely. I read long ago that a Tampa Bay Rays site similar to this, had a guy who was posting all kinds of things about players and what not. The Rays front office contacted him to sign him because they like what he had to say about players and analytics. This was before so much of the info was just available. Not sure if true, but seems plausible.

I see Pirates standing pat, barring a huge drop off. They are fighting for a playoff spot and their fans already believe they sell anyone with value too early. They may move some pen guys if they drop too far back but they will not be dealing really any controllable guys.

Chapman was not much of a red flag, no need for him with Twins, but he was asking was much more than what someone in his position deserves. It was more of seeking pay for what he did for his 2018 2019 seasons, his two best. Also, those 2 he was not much above league average, but above league average. He is a good player that is great on defense, not the best, and slightly above average on offense. Montgomery his issue was he was seeking an Aaron Nola level contract, as reported, which on the face seemed to line up, similar age at contract, similar ERA and FIP, but the innings per start was less, and K rate much lower. No one never looked at Montgomery and said there is an ace to carry us, but he wanted that money.

After Otani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the top four free agents last year were all Borris clients and called the Borris Four. Two pitchers entering age 31 seasons, and two position players, a gold glove 3rd baseman with average offense, but had prior above average offense seasons, he would be entering his age 31 season as well. Then a former MVP average defending OF coming off a big bounce back season, entering age 28 season. All four wanted big pay days. The pitchers were coming off big seasons, Snell winning his second Cy Young, and Montgomery coming off a huge run leading to WS win for Texas. Bellinger had huge second half for Cubs and many thought he might be back to his former MVP form after having several injury filled years. Chapman was always top defender and had a great April that helped keep his offense stats average over the year. Some on here wanted the Twins to target some of them, not Chapman, but the other three were mentioned, and talks heated up as spring training started and all four remained unsigned. The 7 year deals they were looking for clearly were not coming. Many thought the "pillow" contract similar to what Correa signed with Twins would be coming. All four signed the "pillow" contract. A "pillow" contract is a shorter term contract, with player options each year to opt out if they perform to a level they feel will warrant a better long term contract, but allows the safety of a life changing payday if injuries or performance is poor. I was not big on any of the four because of the cost expected and their big red flags in their careers. Not going to go deep into each players red flags, but there was a reason no team was willing to go the 7 year high value reportedly being asked for. Lets look at the pitchers first. I have said the tactic of a pitch holding out into spring training has generally not paid off because the pitcher is behind and generally has worse season. This has been no different. Blake Snell, the 2 time Cy Young winner, but his only 2 great seasons, signed with the Giants. He has made 6 starts, a bWAR of -1.1 with ERA of 9.51 FIP 4.63(career worst) was injured for a month, not uncommon for Snell, and has not pitched 5 innings in a start yet. He signed a 2 year deal with opt out after first year, similar to Rondon did for Giants. So far, not looking good for Giants as he is making 32 mil this year and on hook for 30 next year, and unless he makes huge turn around, Snell will not opt out of the 30 mil next year. Montgomery, the lessor of the two pitchers, was hoping to cash in on a hot run in his contract season. He has been a little better than Snell, but still having career lows in ERA and FIP. He has 10 starts, but still has bWAR -1.0. His K-rate is 5.5 compared to career 8.2. His walk rate is up too. His contract was for 1 year, but with vesting options, which he hit and as season goes on the cost goes up. Another contract not looking good for the team. Matt Chapman signed with the Giants on a possibly four year deal, but really three year deal with player options on each year. The forth is a mutual option, which are almost never picked up. Each year is for about 19 mil on average. His defense has remained good, and his offense has been league average. Really, he has been what he has for years. Good defender with average offense. Giants got what they expected, but for Chapman it will be interesting to see what he decides to do if rest of the year plays out the same. Cody Bellinger, the top of the four by most assessments, resigned with Cubs, after his prove it contract. His contract is a three year deal averaging 27 mil with player options each year. He was a former rookie of the year, and MVP as a young future super star. Then things turned to almost unplayable for years, in part due to injuries. He signed a 1 year prove it deal that injuries were behind him. He had hot start, then injuries in May and June slowed him down, but his July was things of legend, and he rode that into a great second half, but faded late. This year he is putting up above average offense, nothing amazing. His defense is slightly below average. It will be interesting to see if he has a second half surge similar to last year. If not, and he rides out this year as he is, he will be in a tough call in opting in or not. Overall, the pitchers are failing and barring huge turn around will be opting in next year. Chapman is doing what he does, that mean he opts in or hopes for better? He has new agent now too. Bellinger is doing less than his peak years but better than his injury years. Is this the Bellinger going forward, and is he worth more than 27 a year?

I think people forget SWR ended last season doing well in AAA. His first half was terrible, mostly from his BABIP allowed was very high. His walk rate was about the same his strike out rate was about the same, but he gave up many less hits. I am not discounting his change in pitching, but the article starts out saying his 2023 campaign ended on low note, but really it started on low note and ended not too bad. The second half he put up ERA of around slightly over 3.00, a whip around 1.2. Please stop acting like he was a train wreck all year. If you take away his first half numbers he would have still been considered a top prospect and people would not be shocked at what he is doing.

I cannot wait until MLB feels like they have the right robo ump system, and they allow all calls to be reviewed. Yesterday Twins got a run because none of the umps called Buck's ball a foul ball but left it a passed ball. It did help us get a win, but the call should have been made right. Heck, there should have been a 5th ump, a replay ump, that can just buzz down say wrong call it was clearly a foul ball. With the ball's and strikes, the score cards the writer put up is just general in nature too on the difference in run expediency, but each call of a ball or strike has huge impact on the game. Just take a 2-0 pitch with bases loaded 2 out. If count goes to 3-0 that is huge advantage hitter, but if it goes 2-1 the hitter loses that huge advantage and the pitcher still has room to nibble if needed. That call will have little run expediency difference but could have huge impact. Even like early 2 out 3-0 strike call, when should be a walk. Hitter then eventually gets out. The walk would have had little run expediency difference but you have no clue what the next hitter would have done, or how many more pitches the pitcher would throw. How about an 0-2 pitch that would have ended the inning, but instead is called a ball, the hitter drags out the at bat running up a pitch count, and maybe even next couple of guys reach base. Even if a run does not score, the impact was there with more pitches thrown. Point is, every missed ball and strike will have impact on the game, and when the league can get a consistent right call, they should. I hate the human element of the game. The game has rules, and umpire bias or fact that calling a 90 plus MPH pitch that moves a ton is almost impossible to get right and the close calls are just guesses anyways.

I know pitching prospect rankings are generally on possible upside and not on current output, but Matthews needs to be climbing the rankings real quickly with what he has been doing.

Last year there was all the talk about the top 5 picks all being number 1 picks if they were alone in the draft. For the most part people feel the draft broke down in the order expected. I figured lets look at the top picks a year later and see how things shook out. Number 1 Pirates took Paul Skenes, the only pitcher in the top 5. Pirates kept him in AAA to start season, but he quickly moved up and he has been all the Pirates could want. Looks like they did not miss on this one. Number 2 National took Dylan Crews, the college teammate of Skenes. Crews moved up to AA his draft year and struggled in in 20 games and National decided to start him back at AA. He is doing better, but not tearing it up by any means Number 3 Detroit took the first high school bat in Max Clark. He will be compared to what Walker Jenkins does being they were both the high school outfielders in the top 5. So far, Clark has not impressed, but still plenty of time for a 19 year old to improve. His walk to strike out rate is very good and OBP, but his power is very limited so far. Time will tell if he was a mistake or not. Number 4 Texas took Wyatt Langford, another college outfielder, so will be mostly compared to Crews. He is at the major league level this year but far from being impressive. He did great after being drafted but at MLB level this year his OPS is .565, and not sure if his defense has been good, but even platinum glove level will not make up for that poor of hitting. Number 5 the Twins took who was left, Walker Jenkins. He tore up every level after the draft, but got injured after 1 game this year. He has 9 games back and looking like he may hit the ground running again when done with his rehab. Really, so far, of the 4 outfielders he looks like he might be the front runner for best in the draft, but still early for all. Then at number 6 is when people said the draft really started because no one knew who was next. Oakland took college short stop Jacob Wilson. He has been hitting like crazy. Not a ton of power, but he is hitting ton of doubles and been getting on base at super high clip. Again early, but if he can stay at SS he may be better than many of the highly touted outfielders taken. It will be fun to track the four outfielder over the years because they were all expected to go 2 - 5 just in what order. It will also be interesting to see how many outside the top 5 end up being better, because everyone was so sold on the 5.

I do not have an issue some times, but he does it wayyyy to early in some games. I remember some games the other manager used it against Rocco last year. They used the opener a right handed guy, so Twins used heavy lefty line up. Then in second inning, they bring in a lefty to face some of the lefties, having Rocco pinch hit guys before their first at bat. Then the other team brought in the bulk guy, a righty and we lose the platoon splits the rest of the way. I do not mind it in the 5th if a big hit will break game open, but if no one is on base and the other team has limited lefties in the pen take the one at bat with bases empty in the 5th knowing the hitter will come up again later on. I get the theory that you may not get a chance to do it later on, or the game will be out of hand by then and take each inning as it comes, but you need to have some thought down the road. I am for it with say a bases loaded 2 out need a platoon split in the 5th because a big hit will score many runs, but a 2 out no one on in the 5th does us no good in the 7th or 8th when the spot comes up again.

Trying to do a player to player comparison in trades is a terrible way to look at trades. I hate when people say look at who you got and what you gave up to judge a trade. Right now people on here are comparing the CES and Steer for Mahle trade. Yes, we got nothing really in that due to injuries and we could have used them in other trades. However, CES and Steer were are like 4th or 5th ranked guys in our organization at their positions at the time. They were going to need to get moved to 40 man most after that off-season I believe as well, CES may have had 1 more year at the time not sure. However, if we did not trade them, then we have to decided, do they make 40 man or left up to rule 5? If they make 40 man who gets cut? The fact was we had super depth at infield at the time. We had Lewis in wings, Lee coming up, Miranda was having great year, Arraez was doing his thing. Polanco was still here with years of control, Julien was up and coming. We were strong at MLB level with guys in minors ready to come up. Would CES have played last year over anyone? Doubtful, and he would have spent most of the year in minors. Steer, if given the chance would have played over some, but unlike for Reds he would have not just been given playing time. When making trades and judging them, you should look at who we kept, as well, where they ranked in depth charts, because if they would have sat in minors for us, that is little value for major club. Also, if you know trades that were passed on that is something to look at as well. One trade that when you look at the effect on the club as a whole that was one of worst in team history was JJ Hardy to Baltimore. We made the trade because we thought we had a replacement from Japan coming. We got 2 terrible pitchers in return and the replacement was terrible as well. JJ went on to have some great years with Baltimore, nothing super, but gold glove defense and just below league average hitting, much better than what we normally got out of SS those years.

Okay, I will give you Steer hitting well, but CES, really? Did you even look at what CES has done? This year CES has a slash line of .190/.220/.293 with a -0.9 bWAR being also a negative defender at first. His overall numbers are slightly better than Margot for us. Steer is doing very well, but CES should not even be in the majors right now. Steer is doing worse since is super hot start though.

So to beat the Yankees you need to not let their stars, or their roll players get big hits, and you need to score against their bullpen. Summed up as pitch well, and hit well to score more than other team, sounds like a good plan.

We are over a month into the minor league season and our top two prospects have not played. Jenkins did get 1 at bat, but that is it. I have not heard any update on either Jenkins or Lee and any progress they may be making to returning to action. I was hoping to see Jenkins and Lee both tearing it up at this point, but cannot even seem to see when they may get back into action.

If Keirsey was not left handed I bet he would be looking at a call up and sending Margot packing, but being Keirsey is weak against lefties, like many of our outfielders, it is not really an upgrade.

Twins sent a few prospects to Reds a couple of years ago, 2 are in majors and 1 is in AA. Figured I would see how they are doing this year. Spencer Steer, is having a very hot start playing at MVP level in his 15 games. He has played mostly left field, after being mostly a second baseman in minors. He has come out the gate on fire, slashing .346/.477/.673 for OPS 1.150. He was a good hitter last year, but this year at age 26 looking like we could really use him in our OF over Wallner or Margot. Steer is not good on defense, but those offense numbers sure make up for that issue. Steers bWAR is 1.2 Christen Encarnacion-Strand(CES) is on the other side of things. He, just like Steer, has played all 15 games for Reds. He is slashing .185/.191/.308 for OPS of .499. He also plays negative defense at first. His bWAR is -0.7. He has made the most of out his hits, driving in 12 runs on his 12 hits, but striking out at 20 to 1 walk right now. Chase Petty is in AA and has made 2 starts. Neither would be considered good. 4 and 4.1 innings with 2 walks each, a run per inning each, and less than 1 strike out per inning. a WHIP of 2 or more and 3 total HR given up. Still just SSS but a far cry from what he did all of last year in A ball. He is still very young but that jump from A to AA is know to be a hard one and so far not going well. Sure wish Steer was in a Twins uniform with how he is playing right now. The other 2 this year is nothing to be missing out on.

I do not see this move for another couple of trips through rotation. If Varland continues to give up the 3 run HR he will need to get swapped out for SWR. However, SWR had 1 start I think we are getting a little too excited over 1 good start. I have high hopes for him, but he had a poor start in AAA this year too. Every starting pitcher has some good starts and some bad starts. Give each a few more starts. If you flip them now, Varland will be first up when needed for a spot start, assuming he would be rested, but SWR will get his shot as well soon enough I am sure.

It will in part depend on the health of players in AAA and MLB. If E-Rod spends all of April tearing up and looking like he has it figured out, and there are still corner outfield injuries, I would expect him to move up sooner than later. Else, I would see him stay until June to July. He could make a jump from AA to majors if they need him to. Personally, I think if he continues to hit like he has, still very SSS, and Wallner continues to struggle there may be a call up to majors for E-Rod. They have other outfielders that could swap in for Wallner as well so health of them and how they perform will play a roll too.

E-Rod coming out gate like he did 2022. Yes SSS but he is showing what made us so excited about him. If he keeps it up, Wallner better look out for his job before too long.

I agree that if MLB is not going to shift to a robo ump, they need to work with broadcast crews and get the actual zone that the MLB uses to test the accuracy of the umpires. I do agree, more so on the high or low calls, the zones on the TV are not correct, but the inside and outside should be as the plate is the same size. The calls on Wallner were not excusable in my opinion. MLB will be going to robo umps, they are using them in minors, and you would hope the umps in the games were it is all robo are still making calls in their heads to determine if they were right or not. However, if they are not, the training of umps are getting reduced as there are several games where they do not even make calls at AAA and only some where they make them and get challenged. It is also harder for the players. It is not surprising to see guys like Wallner and Julien strike out a ton watching pitches on the edges, that our screens say are balls off the plate, but get rung up. They have been training for a few years with the robo umps then they get asked to come up to MLB level where umps decide the strike zone. The most frustrating thing for hitters, and for most fans I would think, is that the zone changes based on the count. Torii Hunter when he broadcasted games would say on 3-0 the strike call is automatic unless the pitch was so bad the ump had no choice but to call it ball. When you watch games you see that. This is frustrating for players because the same pitch they took for ball one is now strike one later in at bat. For the people that defend the umps for how hard it is to be right, and they get like 90% to 95% right they ignore the accuracy of the close calls. I read an article a few years ago that reviewed the umps, using the same date MLB uses to judge umps, and the non-boarderline calls umps were right like 99.5%. Those are the calls either no where close to strike or right down the middle. But when you got closer to the edges of the zone, the umps were closer to 50% of the time. What made matters worse was the count affected how the ump would call it, and if they just called it one way, they would flip it the next time more often. Umps will get fooled by the pitcher and the hitter. If the pitcher was known for good command they would get good calls, if the hitter was known for a good eye they would get good calls. I am looking forward to the robo ump so the hitter, and pitcher will know the strike zone. I will agree until that time, the zone on the TV just makes fans not like umps even more because we see the "wrong" call on tv in big moments and get upset.