Trov

Luck is more than just hard hit and launch angle to outcomes. I agree that if that is all you look at it is poor way to evaluate if someone is getting lucky more than not. However, having a large number of your HR be just over the wall plays into that. If you hit a ball that would be a fly out in 29 stadiums but the one you are in and it is a HR there, that is some luck involved. If you your starting pitchers are always getting out of jams, eventually that will even out some most likely. I have not seen many Cleveland games, only those against the Twins, and I cannot say they got by with a lot of luck, but if you are hitting balls that have low expected hit percentage, unless that was planned to hit where they did, that is luck. Now, it is true you cannot get lucky if you do not make contact so just having the ability to make contact can help you out some. In part, once the Twins lowered their K rate in late April, they started putting up a ton more runs too.

It sounds like both top picks may struggle to hit for power with the wood bats, which surprise me knowing the Twins loving the power bats.

I think the Twins can catch Cleveland, and really all they have to do is play like they have been and can. Cleveland is winning on career years from guys that could carry through the year, but also could regress to their career norm. Twins generally are playing close to their career norms overall. Cleveland also has been known to fade the second half as well in recent years.

Not sure the overall number of that specific question, but the team has one of the best overall offenses in baseball. Yeah, this weekend they did very poorly with RISP and those will happen, but as a whole the team has done very well scoring runs.

They could use a LH pen arm, and for the right price an upgrade at top end of rotation. I am sure the team can make the money work for rental guys, but it is unlikely they would agree to take on much future payroll. They may still look for controllable guys on arb year, where you have a pretty good idea what that budgets to be. I think there is little out there for high end arms though that are clear upgrade over Ober. As an article pointed out, you need to be at his level or better to be an upgrade for playoffs. I do think the uncertainty for long term financial could play into taking on future money, but not rental guys. It is not just the Twins own TV deal, but as other teams TV deals are up in air it affects the revenue sharing from those as well. Teams split local TV deals about 50%, which makes sense as they are the other team playing, but as other teams contracts get cut or dropped that is less money to share as well. I do feel like the slow start and lack of TV for most people, I have Spectrum so get to see them, but my sisters do not. have affected interest in the team. I think also the long run of Wolves affected early season too as many local sports fans that like both were more engaged in Wolves, I was for sure, than what was going on with Twins at the time.

SS are generally the most athletic guys on a team. Most high school SS never pan out at majors, and the few of the college guys do as well, however, if they can play SS they can play just about anywhere else. If they can play only 1B they have limited options if they suck there. SS is a hard position to fill, so having plenty that can fill in is helpful too. Also, they have increased trade value if they can actually stick there. In terms of Camaniti, from what I read he is LSU commit and was expected to go much higher, meaning he most likely will be looking for above slot deal. Atlanta may be able to get it done, but sometimes guys slide in drafts for a reason. HS pitchers are so volatile as well. He may just decide to go to LSU and in 3 years hope to be much higher pick.

Read up on him that he did terrible with wood bats last summer, lets hope is new found power will translate to the wood bats. At least with good contact and low walks even if he is a gap to gap mainly double type guy with solid defense that has value.

Ehh, he strikes me as a typical 3 outcomes guy with limited defense. I hope he can contribute, but sounds like may have been looking at his improvement and buying in on that. I would not be surprised if he tops out at AA or AAA.

Prep pitchers are roll of the dice. Even the top guys burn out in a few years. I got no issue with taking one, but do not expect much from him for about 4 to 5 years.

The only reason the Twins make this trade is if they think they can tinker with Detmers to get him to where they want. I am for it, but if Detmers is out of options after this year you better plan to do it at MLB level or hope no one takes him off waivers next year.

You also have no clue had they been left in if they would have got the win. We will never know. We attack a move when it does not work, but rarely say that was a great move there when it does work. If we leave in any of those guys longer and they give up the lead Rocco gets attacked for leaving a guy in too long.

He is climbing up prospect rankings, MLB has him 5th in Twins right now, behind Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez, and Festa. Prospect rankings are fun to look at but they do not mean a whole lot when it comes time to play at the MLB level. Lee was/is ranked higher because he was at least an average defending SS, Keaschall is considered a poor defender overall. If he can learn CF and play it even average and hit like he has show, then yeah he will be huge. Lee was always talked big on because he was expected to have solid floor but not sky high ceiling.

Compare Kurt Schilling and Zach Greinke. Schilling did not make hall, and maybe because of his political views, but his numbers are better than Greinke, and he had more big moments people remember. The numbers are very close but Schilling never made it. I do not think voters care if he is the best on the ballot at pitching for years. There is no requirement anyone needs to go in any year, let alone a pitcher. The last pitchers voted in were 2019, when 3 went in same year. Before that, 2018 1 went in. Then in 2015 3 went in as well. Point is they do not have to put in a pitcher, and you never know what the voters will look at to decide.

If the voters change up their thoughts, which they do seem to be, based on guys like Helton getting in, but pitching they have lagged behind. Greinke, has the longevity and had a good run for 10 seasons, which should get him HOF, but you never know how voters will go. I was shocked when Santana was bounced first ballot, when in his 12 seasons, but really like 9 seasons, he was one of best if not the best pitcher in the game during those 9 seasons. I do feel the voters now are looking at the larger hall, let the best of their era get in, even if they may not have put up the same numbers as others in the hall. In the past, the voters did not care if they were best of their era, but cared how they compared to others. I think the new voters understand the game has evolved over time and the counting stats are not the same as they used to be. However, I still feel like the voters look more than just a great 7 to 9 year run.

Castro is the type of player the Twins love to have. He can play many positions, hits from both sides, and has speed, not super speed but is not slow. I agree he very well may be our MVP because he has played all over, and allows Rocco to move other guys around because Castro can fill the holes left. Good for him making all star team.

I agree we do not need a righty set up man. We could use upgrade from left side though.

I would say Grienke is not 100%, based on how HOF voting for pitchers have gone. He has a high WAR but he also has pitched a lot in his career. He only has 1 cy young, maybe should have had 2, but he is not a lock in my opinion, and with voters on pitching he is a fringe guy I think. The other starters listed for sure. The closers you never know how voters feel. They have the number of saves but people are getting off save stat as important either. As for the hitters you list, Trout is for sure, Votto I am not sold on at all. He is very good, but based on his age and seasons played his counting stats are a little low. He played an offensive position and much of his OPS which is very good, was done by huge walk rate. I think the fact he played 1b and not considered a strong defender will hurt his chances. Betts is fully on pace and barring huge drop off of production should be in. Paul Goldschmidt I am not sold on either. He is similar to Votto, just not played as long and this year he is not doing well, if he drops off or retires soon, I am not saying HOF for him. He is not even at 2000 hits yet. Freeman will need to play a few more years of good ball to be a lock. He is on his way, but at 34 if he drops off quickly he will be a fringe guy too. Ohtahani is well on his way and barring huge drop off will be a lock. Of your 90% guys, Ramirez will need to have a few more very good years to get there. He is on his way but at 31 could drop off. He is yet to win an MVP or any offense title, and average defender. Arenado is more fringe. He was a top defender but he is going to have to play several more years at a high level. Machado is similar to Ramirez, been good but never great. He is still only 31 so if he can stay good into his late 30's he will have a chance. Perez is hard to judge because he is a catcher and you need to take that into account. Overall his numbers would not warrant HOF at any other position. He only finished top 10 MVP 1 time at 7th other than that just solid numbers as a catcher. Some said Joe, who was first ballot was fringe guy, and Mauers numbers much better than Perez on the whole. Altuve is well on way and not showing signs of slowing down, if he can keep up a few more years he should be a lock. Judge will need to keep hitting HR at huge rate to make it. He will get every chance, and being the best Yankee for his time will give him a boost, but if his power drops he will not make it I think. Harper is on the path too, will just need to maintain into later 30's, he is only 31. I would not put Turner on there yet, not over plenty of others, like Seagar, or Correa, both guys play SS and have better career numbers at younger age. The HOF is in interesting time because pitchers numbers are no where near what they used to be, so hard to tell who will make it. Really, if they are one of best of their time for long period they should go, but how long? For hitters, I think the 3,000 hits are rare to come by now, or the 500 HR that used to be locks, but I still think they look at how they did over their time and how did they compare to others in their time at their position. Where they one of the best, or where they just good? Mike Trout, at this point, does not have the counting stats to get in, but for 8 years was considered best in the game at a top defensive position. You may be right with most of them because the counting stats are not as important any more.

Had we not started so bad we would be talked about one of best teams in baseball, as we have had a top record since our terrible start. The Yankees are on the other side of the coin, they started off so hot. They were 50 and 22 after June 14th game. As of today, they are 56 and 38. Meaning they have gone 6 and 16 over last 22 games. That is terrible. That is only 3 games better than how White Sox started their first 22 games. Of course each game counts, but the Yankees world is coming down but still is leading the wild card by 4.5 games, because they had huge cushion. Cleveland has yet to have a bad run overall. I feel fans here feel like the team is doing much worse than we really are, and since the 7-13 start we are doing pretty well. Since that time we are 19 games above .500. We are testing our starting pitching depth, and do not have anyone that is considered a cy young person, but we have 5 solid starters overall, no one when they start do I say, well we better score a ton today. Our offense has become one of best in baseball, and this has been sustained for awhile. We are 4th in runs scored, 4th in HR, 3rd in OPS. We really need to work on the pen for the most part and hope health of the rotation holds.

I fully agree it is so hard to predict how a HS are will develop and even harder with 16 year old. We never know if a kid is done growing, will he fill out, and how will his arm hold up as he ages. Even for hitters that young it is hard to predict and some times the top paid guy is the best in class, but other times the lower end paid guy is. I point to Juan Soto signing class. He signed 1.5 Tatis Jr. signed 700K, we signed Wander Javier for 4 mil, Vlad Jr. Signed for 3.9, Gilberto Cellisto signed for 2.5, Andres Gimminez signed 1.2. There were several that signed for 2 plus and very few ever made majors is my point but guys that paid much less did much better sooner than later too. Signing a 16 year old kid is a crap shoot that he will ever be anything in the future.

Texas is not selling in my opinion. They are 5.5 out of their division race and 7 out of wild card. They just won a WS last year and have a team built to win in playoffs. They may even buy at the deadline if anything. They spent a ton of money last few years to keep winning not selling and rebuilding. Even the guys that are FA at end of year they are not likely to trade away unless it is for MLB ready talent now or very soon.

I agree about the importance of Catchers, which is why you see some catchers like Vasquez still have jobs despite being terrible at plate. Most of the time teams take top hitting catchers off the position because it is hell on your knees, and cuts your career short for most players and saps their offense. Only the HOF guys can stick it out and be good on offense. Rarely do you see a guy with good arm move to catcher, but more often they get moved off the position. If you can be a good catcher and stick there it is an easier path to majors, but it is a hard way to get there because of the wear and tear on body. Not just the knees, but all the foul tips into face, onto hand, legs, everywhere.

The returning pitchers are the only ones that would affect trade deadline plans. If both return and can pitch to expectations there is little need for a high leverage arm from right side. We would still need upgrade from left side. The position players are covered by our depth. It may allow us to use some of our depth to trade for a pitcher if needed though.

This is more for fun, but imagine if the Reentry Rule was in place at MLB level. Players that have good platoon advantages would get a huge boost. For example, right now we have Matt Wallner, and Manuel Margot on our team. They are both huge platoon advantage guys. Wallner crushes RH pitching overall, and is about as bad a pitcher used to be when they hit against LH. Margot is not quite as powerful against LH pitchers, but has above average OPS, this year .829, but is terrible against RH. We have other strong splits out there too. It has happened less this year, but last year, Rocco would sub out the platoon guys the first chance he could, sometimes making the next 1 or 2 at bats not good. So lets allow a couple of reentry moves. Not just for at-bats, but running bases too. Lets get some more fun in the game always letting a guys top skill be seen, and stop making their worst skills be seen. Who cares that it will make pitching moves pointless we want offense. Let the Twins sub out Wallner against LH guy only to bring back in later in game when a RH is on the mound.

Well, are those 80 ab's against lefties? I would not want to see a single at bat of Wallner against a leftie over Margot. I agree Wallner looks good in his 2 games and crushed several balls against righties. but Margot still has a .OPS of .829 against lefties this year. Margot is terrible against righties. They are like the perfect platoon guys. So if Wallner is hitting against RH, him all day. If a LH is on mound Margot over Wallner all day.

That Wallner HR was crazy hard hit. I know just 2 games back but he looks like the guy that had a good second half last year. Hopefully he is up here for good the rest of the year hitting balls so hard it may tear the glove off defenders hand if they do touch it.