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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    In regards tot he 2022 numbers, assuming we would have added him to 40 man and called up in September, if he had similar numbers, Steer slashed .211/.306/.632 for OPS+ of 74. Guessing that would not have added much wins for us. Assuming he does replace Solano on the 2023 roster, again not clear that would have happened being we had other guys on roster ranked ahead of him on prospect list as well. Lets assume he would have broke camp and got all the at-bats Solano got. Steer would have produced more offense, as he had more slugging and much more HR, but he got on base less often, and his defense was worse. Overall, it would have been net gain, but not a huge increase. Additionally, we do not know how this would have affected other moves the team made. Maybe Julien never gets a call up because Steer is playing instead if he is on team, and he had higher OPS+ then Steer last year. Would Steer have been possible upgrade last year over who we used, possible, but would we have just went with him out of camp like Reds did, doubtful. There is good chance he would have stayed in AAA all year, depending what he was doing down there.
  2. Trov
    Steer may or may not be part of Reds long term plan. He is getting at bats, but still not locked into a position. He has played half LF and half 1B mainly. I disagree with the claim the trade will only look worse as time passes, unless you are only looking at WAR. You need to also remember, Steer was not on 40 man that year, he would have had to be put on 40 man the next year, which may have cost a different prospect. Additionally, if we keep Steer and he does what he is doing, slightly above average hitter, do we feel different players are tradable then? Would we trade Julien away, and what if Julien turns out to be the better player down the road, unless the player or players we get in return of Julien int he hypothetical were that much better would it have been better to keep Steer. Each move affects other moves. If we keep Steer and CES, and do not trade them elsewhere, do we lose them in rule 5, do we lose someone else in rule 5, or do we trade away a different player to allow them to get playing time, or do we just leave them in AAA? I am not saying we clearly got the raw end of the trade being we almost nothing from Mahle, but my point is to say the trades on the list were bad because we got less bWAR from the players coming versus going out is not a good way to evaluate a trade as a whole. I used Steer as an example because he has been the most productive for a guy we sent out mostly.
  3. Trov
    I fully agree Steer could have been used in potential other trade, and sucks Mahle got hurt right away for us. However, without knowing what other options there were with Steer hard to determine that as well.
  4. Trov
    It is nice to see guys put up some good numbers to start to push for chances in next year or too. You can never have too much pitching as guys get hurt or fall off production.
  5. Trov
    Pretty easy to predict based on current roster and no injuries setting in. Personally, I see 1st base as a possible move by Twins in offseason again. No one on our current roster are considered strong defenders there, and unless they rake like crazy having average offense and bad defense is not good combo at 1st. In addition, so many of these guys are pushing each other could get traded in off-season, or at deadline.
  6. Trov
    It is interesting they had Eeles jump AA and not move someone from AA up to AAA and him up to AA though. What I take from it is they see Eeles as a career minor league guy actually where others they want a more linier growth in their moving up leagues. With Eeles skipping AA, for now, may be more of just need that he can fill more, or was closer to St. Paul to fill in.
  7. Trov
    The issue I have with this is you are only using comparison bWAR, which is a poor way to assess a trade. Specifically, look at the Mahle for Steer and CES trade. Steer has decent bWAR, but we do not know if he would have had a chance to put up that bWAR with Twins. He is limited on defense to either 2nd, 1st, or LF for most part. At the time, Polanco was starter at 2nd, Arraez was 1st base/LF guy, really similar defense profile to Steer. Miranda was 1st/DH guy coming doing good rookie year. AK was still thought to be possible 1st base when healthy, and DH/LF was Larnach, Wallner on prospect list, and Nick Gordon was doing okay filling in left. Also, in minors we had Julien, Lee, and Martin who were ranked high prospects than Steer. Would Steer have even made our 40 man? Who was he going to clearly be ahead of? Yes, as things played out he may have been able to do 2nd or 1st last year because of injuries and the like, or some LF too. However, that is not certain. Same is for many of the other position players that were traded in these deals, we have no clue how much they would have played for us, because you need to see who they would have played instead of. Yeah, overall we have not got a ton of our "buying" moves, but most of them were not big time moves where we gave up big time prospects either. The worst and what was the biggest swing was Lopez. He as having career year at the time and we overpaid for a guy that made transition to pen and was doing great. That is the only one where we could use Cano, who figured it out in Baltimor and Pavich right now. Outside of those 2 I am not sure anyone else would make contributions much at MLB level for us.
  8. Trov
    I feel Morris will need to move way up prospect lists this year. He is doing even better in AA than in High A this year. I know much of prospect lists are ceiling and hype and 4 year college guys will not get much of that, but he is still 22, will be 23 in a couple months.
  9. Trov
    I wrote a forum on this exact thing the other week. Glad Ted took it and ran with it. I think CC was the right one for us. We were not going to get Seager and Turner contract was too long. Why did you not include Xander Bogaerts, he signed as a SS for Padres in 2023 on an 11 year deal. It has not worked out well this year so far, last year was ehh.
  10. Trov
    Dyson there was rumblings that SF hid arm issues, or at minimum Dyson was hiding it from team. Mahle had pitched a full season year prior and only missed a couple of starts in the year we traded for him. He had history early in career, and had a IL stint a couple weeks prior to trade but to expect missing rest of that season and basically the whole next was not something teams were expecting.
  11. Trov
    The contract that was signed was very much set up based on his possible value, but with taking into account his long history of injuries. I fully expect a few more stints on IL this year. However, if we can make playoffs and he be healthy and hot, he is the type that can carry a team through a playoff series. We have yet to see him be healthy in the playoffs, let alone be hot. On the flip side, he can get so cold that you just shake your head at his swinging at sliders low and away three straight times. I do feel the team did him a huge disservice when he was coming up, making all kinds of changes to his swing every time he had a slump.
  12. Trov
    He has pitched against the playoff teams he would expect to face this year. He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against Cleveland, they got all 3 on a 3 run HR. It was his second game of year. He faced Yankees, best offense in league, or 1 run behind Baltimore for most runs scored at least, and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings pitched, not good, but not wheels falling off. He has faced other top half offense teams and done well. Is he a lock down Ace, no, but I would trust him this year in a playoff game. He clearly has worked on his other pitches.
  13. Trov
    When I saw the headline I was thinking the article would have several terrible ideas about who to trade to, but it was at least some thought into it. The Philly idea makes the most sense overall. However, the issue is that Kepler has very little value in trade. He is league average hitter, that plays good to great defense. Yes, he has had hot runs in his history but outside of his second half last, and no playoff output, he has never had long run of success but more so just a few weeks at a time. Corner outfield spots are easy to fill. Just as the article points out we have much depth there. Not many teams that are buying will give up much MLB ready talent for him on a rental. He also will not be getting QO, because he would be a fool to turn it down. I agree it makes sense to trade Kepler to get something for him if you feel you can replace him for rest of year, but he will not fetch much of a return.
  14. Trov
    I would not look for any of them. Snell will pick up his option for next year most likely, so unless the Giants put in a ton of cash, it will be hard taking on his money for next year. Snell has had 2 Cy Young seasons wrapped around several injury filled middle of road seasons. Verlander is someone I would take on but he will not leave Houston for Minnesota. He like Houston and unless they are fully out of it he will not go anywhere. The other 2 just no.
  15. Trov
    I remember around this time last year many were calling for Cossetti to be listed as top prospect and fly up the minor leagues.
  16. Trov
    They both have shown why you do not just dump guys because of some struggles. So many fans were writing both off after last year and felt trades or DFA should be done. Where would we be this year without them? Everyone was sold that Wallner jumped past Larnach to a point that Larnach was out the door. It took longer than some would like but Larnach finally seems to have adjusted to how they pitch him at MLB level. The book is still throw offspeed over and over, with a once in awhile show me fastball out of the zone or way on edge to keep him honest once in awhile. Like yesterday, he saw no fastballs from Castillo. Castillo went changeup in middle of zone, then changeup low changeup low over and over. The fact he is taking some of them for balls, and then actually hitting them when they are strikes is huge. Miranda just is healthy. I say it time and again, even little injuries where you are just dealing with pain, can affect so much in your swing, or pitching that you do not even notice until that pain is gone. They talked on game last night about the high fastball Miranda is doing better with this year. Think about how last year, his back shoulder was in pain, as someone who broke his shoulder once, it is hard to lift it up fully sometimes and if he could not lift his back arm up high enough, makes it hard to hit the high fastball at all.
  17. Trov
    I was watching PTI the other day and Kornheiser made a statement that got me thinking. He was asked who was best player to never win a championship in baseball. He said first, I will not consider anyone after the playoff expansion, which he did not make clear if he meant from 2 teams to 4 or 4 to 8, or what it is now. Either way, he said the reason he would not consider it because it is much easier now for a player to win a championship now then back then. I understood where he was coming from, that now more teams make playoffs each year, so you have more chances to make the playoffs and get through that, but on the reverse side with more teams in playoffs, if you make the playoffs you have more series to get through to win a championship. So the question is, because more teams make the playoffs is it easier for a star player to now win a championship, or was it easier for a star player before because the best teams in a 162 game season made the playoffs and only had to win 1 or 2 series until the late 90's?
  18. Trov
    This article has been talked about before. I find a deal unlikely to happen. First, Boras rarely has his clients sign a deal like this. I could see a similar deal like Witt where really they bought out a couple of FA with opt outs, and just did cost control of arb years. I doubt Lewis buys out 2 years of FA, maybe 1 to know he is getting paid. Look at some of the contracts in last few years under current CBA rules. Specifically someone like Bogaerts, or Turner. They both got very long contracts when entering age 30 season in FA. They both got 11 year deals nearly $300 mil. If Lewis signed a deal that took him to age 35 or 36, he would be missing out, possibly on a few seasons, because unlikely he would get a 4 or 5 year deal at 30 mil a year at that point. Maybe if players start making a ton more in next decade, but unlikely. So unless we overpay to buy out those years, Boras is gonna tell him he is leaving money on the table. Now, if Lewis wants to make sure he makes life changing money he would be willing to, because for all he knows he will have career ending injury any time. That is the risk of the player that he may get hurt too bad to play, but he may already have an insurance policy on that as well. Points is, Lewis has a lot more to lose by signing that long of a deal, even one with options buying out 1 or 2 years of FA. Now, signing a deal that controls what arb years looks like makes sense for both sides, but with some of the recent deals 30 year old guys have gotten Lewis would best bet on himself, unless he is fine leaving upwards of $100 mil on the table if not more.
  19. Trov
    Interesting way of building a team, you would rather have a guy with -0.2 bWAR so far this year over a guy with 1.8 bWAR, and guy with 0.8 bWAR over a guy with 1.7 bWAR so far this season. But if that is how you feel okay. I mean even Vasquez has same bWAR as Bo Naylor. I doubt many would swap Bo Naylor for Jeffers straight up and consider it a win for the Twins.
  20. Trov
    They are treating Raya very similar to how they treated Duran, but even more restrictions. I fully agree they either need to let him be a normal starter and pitch into 5th going through rotation 2 plus times, or just transition him fully to a pen roll and move him up that way. I can get wanting to build up a guy slowly while you make adjustments to things, but three years of this is crazy if you really want him to be a starter.
  21. Trov
    Not saying the kid will ever make majors or do anything if he does, but I hate when teams say because of height someone cannot get it done. Yes, is it rare sure, but clearly they can do it. Jose Altuve for years, even when he was getting it done at majors still was talked about that he will regress and never hit for any power. His first 4 years in league age 21 through hit for minimal power but had decent OBP. Then he added the power. I bet if Puckett was around now, he would get passed over as well, he was only 5'8" and was not a power hitter when he first started. Puckett played in era where getting hits was valued even if not for power, so he got a shot, then developed power. No way would he have been given same shot these days. Altuve, was signed when 16 so they may have thought growth was still coming, and he just kept hitting for average and a little power that he forced his way onto the team. However, if he was born in US, I bet it would have taken much longer for him to get a shot, and similar to the kid in the article would have been passed over by teams. This is similar to Arraez situation, guy that has always hit for high average, but lacks the HR pop. It really comes down to philosophy on do you want more power and extra base hits, or do you want guys that get hit generally and get on base? Personally, I think a mix for a team is needed, and that is what used to be the norm, but many have switched to just extra base hits. I hope the kid keeps on hitting and forces some hands in next year. At age 24 if he keeps hitting he could climb up to AA by end of year, and at 25 next year start there and move up to AAA and possible have a few good years in MLB.
  22. Trov
    You did not answer any of the questions I posed to you. I never said the whole roster is bester than Cleveland, but you said only Lewis and CC would be better than the players Cleveland put out there, and Lewis is basically a tie with Ramirez is a tie. I did not say Jeffers is the best catcher in the league, but you would take Bo Naylor a guy with a .OPS 604 over Jeffers? I would it is a toss up between Naylor and Vasquez, but I would take Jeffers over Naylor, at least for now, maybe down road Naylor gets better, but this year no way would I trade Naylor for Jeffers straight up to finish out the year. I would not trade Buck for Freeman straight up either. I would take Kwan over any of our OF right now, but I would expect some regression for him, just based on his history. I am not saying Kepler is amazing or anything, but he is on his career average, so not likely to regress at this point. I would say overall there are players that I would clearly take from Cleveland to put into this line up over who we have, and about 3 that I would take from Twins to put on Cleveland as an upgrade, and 2 to 3 are pretty much a toss up at this point. Overall close matched lineup, but Cleveland has several guys putting up career type numbers, Kwan by far, Fry by far, and Josh Naylor has already tied career high in HR. In terms of Twins, I do not think any are having career years, outside Lewis, but he has never played a full year so hard to decide what his norm may be. Most of the Twins hitters are near their career norm it would seem. Maybe Castro a little, but not much off what he did last year. So I ask again, you would want Bo Naylor over Jeffers? You would want Freeman over Buck? Specifically for this year alone.
  23. Trov
    So you would want Bo Naylor over both our catchers? I mean for offense sure over Vasquez, but over Jeffers? Naylor is hitting .565 OPS. You would take Freeman over Buck too? Sure numbers right now are close, Buck still better this year and shown much better upside over career. I am not saying our lineup is amazing, but Cleveland is very top heavy with huge holes at end, if Kwan, Fry, or Ramirez regress they will be in big trouble. Kwan is having a career year by an extreme level, career .780 OPS, that includes this year, which he is 1.020, that is unlikely to carry all year, with already having career high in HR. Maybe he made career changing moves, but less likely. Fry there is a reason he is 28 and never played a full MLB season, expect regression to his norm too. Ramirez is doing what his career average is, but if Kwan and or Fry regress to career norms, there offense is in trouble. It is possible they carry it all year though. Their starters have not been good, but their pen has been great. If they do not get more from the starters, it is likely the pen will start to falter near end of year. Happened with Clase last year. He is on pace for similar usage, and number of saves, but he blew 12 saves last year. On pace to be a little better for that, but he had 6 blown saves July on last year. 6 before July where this year only 3. Point is, if he slips with over use or other pen guys, and offense from their top 4 guys, they could go on a poor stretch. Will they, time will tell.
  24. Trov
    Robert has never taken off like he was projected to do. One the injuries and two I think he got stuck on a team with terrible culture. Maybe a new place would help, but I would not drop major prospects for him.
  25. Trov
    I see two issues you have not addressed. First, both Festa and Lee are not on 40 man roster, so you need to decided who will go 60 man or DFA for those 2. Keep in mind if they walk or get taken off waivers after DFA you cannot call them up should you need. Second, you cannot put a guy on IL unless they are injured, the MLBPA would have a fit if you put a guy on IL simply because you felt like it. Although both Kepler and Larnach have been battling injuries have not heard about Paddock or Theilabar being injured, they may be and I just missed it. Really, the 40 man you need to decide how to fix that.
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