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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I would not look for any of them. Snell will pick up his option for next year most likely, so unless the Giants put in a ton of cash, it will be hard taking on his money for next year. Snell has had 2 Cy Young seasons wrapped around several injury filled middle of road seasons. Verlander is someone I would take on but he will not leave Houston for Minnesota. He like Houston and unless they are fully out of it he will not go anywhere. The other 2 just no.
  2. Trov
    I remember around this time last year many were calling for Cossetti to be listed as top prospect and fly up the minor leagues.
  3. Trov
    They both have shown why you do not just dump guys because of some struggles. So many fans were writing both off after last year and felt trades or DFA should be done. Where would we be this year without them? Everyone was sold that Wallner jumped past Larnach to a point that Larnach was out the door. It took longer than some would like but Larnach finally seems to have adjusted to how they pitch him at MLB level. The book is still throw offspeed over and over, with a once in awhile show me fastball out of the zone or way on edge to keep him honest once in awhile. Like yesterday, he saw no fastballs from Castillo. Castillo went changeup in middle of zone, then changeup low changeup low over and over. The fact he is taking some of them for balls, and then actually hitting them when they are strikes is huge. Miranda just is healthy. I say it time and again, even little injuries where you are just dealing with pain, can affect so much in your swing, or pitching that you do not even notice until that pain is gone. They talked on game last night about the high fastball Miranda is doing better with this year. Think about how last year, his back shoulder was in pain, as someone who broke his shoulder once, it is hard to lift it up fully sometimes and if he could not lift his back arm up high enough, makes it hard to hit the high fastball at all.
  4. Trov
    I was watching PTI the other day and Kornheiser made a statement that got me thinking. He was asked who was best player to never win a championship in baseball. He said first, I will not consider anyone after the playoff expansion, which he did not make clear if he meant from 2 teams to 4 or 4 to 8, or what it is now. Either way, he said the reason he would not consider it because it is much easier now for a player to win a championship now then back then. I understood where he was coming from, that now more teams make playoffs each year, so you have more chances to make the playoffs and get through that, but on the reverse side with more teams in playoffs, if you make the playoffs you have more series to get through to win a championship. So the question is, because more teams make the playoffs is it easier for a star player to now win a championship, or was it easier for a star player before because the best teams in a 162 game season made the playoffs and only had to win 1 or 2 series until the late 90's?
  5. Trov
    This article has been talked about before. I find a deal unlikely to happen. First, Boras rarely has his clients sign a deal like this. I could see a similar deal like Witt where really they bought out a couple of FA with opt outs, and just did cost control of arb years. I doubt Lewis buys out 2 years of FA, maybe 1 to know he is getting paid. Look at some of the contracts in last few years under current CBA rules. Specifically someone like Bogaerts, or Turner. They both got very long contracts when entering age 30 season in FA. They both got 11 year deals nearly $300 mil. If Lewis signed a deal that took him to age 35 or 36, he would be missing out, possibly on a few seasons, because unlikely he would get a 4 or 5 year deal at 30 mil a year at that point. Maybe if players start making a ton more in next decade, but unlikely. So unless we overpay to buy out those years, Boras is gonna tell him he is leaving money on the table. Now, if Lewis wants to make sure he makes life changing money he would be willing to, because for all he knows he will have career ending injury any time. That is the risk of the player that he may get hurt too bad to play, but he may already have an insurance policy on that as well. Points is, Lewis has a lot more to lose by signing that long of a deal, even one with options buying out 1 or 2 years of FA. Now, signing a deal that controls what arb years looks like makes sense for both sides, but with some of the recent deals 30 year old guys have gotten Lewis would best bet on himself, unless he is fine leaving upwards of $100 mil on the table if not more.
  6. Trov
    Interesting way of building a team, you would rather have a guy with -0.2 bWAR so far this year over a guy with 1.8 bWAR, and guy with 0.8 bWAR over a guy with 1.7 bWAR so far this season. But if that is how you feel okay. I mean even Vasquez has same bWAR as Bo Naylor. I doubt many would swap Bo Naylor for Jeffers straight up and consider it a win for the Twins.
  7. Trov
    They are treating Raya very similar to how they treated Duran, but even more restrictions. I fully agree they either need to let him be a normal starter and pitch into 5th going through rotation 2 plus times, or just transition him fully to a pen roll and move him up that way. I can get wanting to build up a guy slowly while you make adjustments to things, but three years of this is crazy if you really want him to be a starter.
  8. Trov
    Not saying the kid will ever make majors or do anything if he does, but I hate when teams say because of height someone cannot get it done. Yes, is it rare sure, but clearly they can do it. Jose Altuve for years, even when he was getting it done at majors still was talked about that he will regress and never hit for any power. His first 4 years in league age 21 through hit for minimal power but had decent OBP. Then he added the power. I bet if Puckett was around now, he would get passed over as well, he was only 5'8" and was not a power hitter when he first started. Puckett played in era where getting hits was valued even if not for power, so he got a shot, then developed power. No way would he have been given same shot these days. Altuve, was signed when 16 so they may have thought growth was still coming, and he just kept hitting for average and a little power that he forced his way onto the team. However, if he was born in US, I bet it would have taken much longer for him to get a shot, and similar to the kid in the article would have been passed over by teams. This is similar to Arraez situation, guy that has always hit for high average, but lacks the HR pop. It really comes down to philosophy on do you want more power and extra base hits, or do you want guys that get hit generally and get on base? Personally, I think a mix for a team is needed, and that is what used to be the norm, but many have switched to just extra base hits. I hope the kid keeps on hitting and forces some hands in next year. At age 24 if he keeps hitting he could climb up to AA by end of year, and at 25 next year start there and move up to AAA and possible have a few good years in MLB.
  9. Trov
    You did not answer any of the questions I posed to you. I never said the whole roster is bester than Cleveland, but you said only Lewis and CC would be better than the players Cleveland put out there, and Lewis is basically a tie with Ramirez is a tie. I did not say Jeffers is the best catcher in the league, but you would take Bo Naylor a guy with a .OPS 604 over Jeffers? I would it is a toss up between Naylor and Vasquez, but I would take Jeffers over Naylor, at least for now, maybe down road Naylor gets better, but this year no way would I trade Naylor for Jeffers straight up to finish out the year. I would not trade Buck for Freeman straight up either. I would take Kwan over any of our OF right now, but I would expect some regression for him, just based on his history. I am not saying Kepler is amazing or anything, but he is on his career average, so not likely to regress at this point. I would say overall there are players that I would clearly take from Cleveland to put into this line up over who we have, and about 3 that I would take from Twins to put on Cleveland as an upgrade, and 2 to 3 are pretty much a toss up at this point. Overall close matched lineup, but Cleveland has several guys putting up career type numbers, Kwan by far, Fry by far, and Josh Naylor has already tied career high in HR. In terms of Twins, I do not think any are having career years, outside Lewis, but he has never played a full year so hard to decide what his norm may be. Most of the Twins hitters are near their career norm it would seem. Maybe Castro a little, but not much off what he did last year. So I ask again, you would want Bo Naylor over Jeffers? You would want Freeman over Buck? Specifically for this year alone.
  10. Trov
    So you would want Bo Naylor over both our catchers? I mean for offense sure over Vasquez, but over Jeffers? Naylor is hitting .565 OPS. You would take Freeman over Buck too? Sure numbers right now are close, Buck still better this year and shown much better upside over career. I am not saying our lineup is amazing, but Cleveland is very top heavy with huge holes at end, if Kwan, Fry, or Ramirez regress they will be in big trouble. Kwan is having a career year by an extreme level, career .780 OPS, that includes this year, which he is 1.020, that is unlikely to carry all year, with already having career high in HR. Maybe he made career changing moves, but less likely. Fry there is a reason he is 28 and never played a full MLB season, expect regression to his norm too. Ramirez is doing what his career average is, but if Kwan and or Fry regress to career norms, there offense is in trouble. It is possible they carry it all year though. Their starters have not been good, but their pen has been great. If they do not get more from the starters, it is likely the pen will start to falter near end of year. Happened with Clase last year. He is on pace for similar usage, and number of saves, but he blew 12 saves last year. On pace to be a little better for that, but he had 6 blown saves July on last year. 6 before July where this year only 3. Point is, if he slips with over use or other pen guys, and offense from their top 4 guys, they could go on a poor stretch. Will they, time will tell.
  11. Trov
    Robert has never taken off like he was projected to do. One the injuries and two I think he got stuck on a team with terrible culture. Maybe a new place would help, but I would not drop major prospects for him.
  12. Trov
    I see two issues you have not addressed. First, both Festa and Lee are not on 40 man roster, so you need to decided who will go 60 man or DFA for those 2. Keep in mind if they walk or get taken off waivers after DFA you cannot call them up should you need. Second, you cannot put a guy on IL unless they are injured, the MLBPA would have a fit if you put a guy on IL simply because you felt like it. Although both Kepler and Larnach have been battling injuries have not heard about Paddock or Theilabar being injured, they may be and I just missed it. Really, the 40 man you need to decide how to fix that.
  13. Trov
    I was a little surprised at CC rank and numbers. You can clearly tell he is doing better this year than last. When I read how they come up with the number, "The SABR Defensive Index draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts, including data from MLBAM’s Statcast, Sports Info Solutions, and STATS Perform." I wonder, how much the battle ball data effects things based on shift done by team. Does it equal out, or not? Meaning, in a traditional defense, a ball hit in the slightly to the right of SS would be an out most of the time, but if that defender is shifted up the middle, a ball hit in same spot will not be defended, but reverse where ball hit right up middle used to be a hit, now is an out. How much does positioning take into account? Additionally, how much does a nice tag on a player account, as the article points out. CC does a crazy job of tagging the head first slider, on the leg or even foot well away from the base than to try to meet the slider at the base, sometimes allowing for a swim move. I have not watched every game super close, but I do not feel like CC defense is negative, at least from what I have seen. Again, eyes can get it wrong though, it is very possible it is lower range that hurts him. It seems like these numbers can change quickly based on how quicky guys moved up at times.
  14. Trov
    It is crazy to think where he would be if COVID shut down and his injuries had not happened. I would love to see Twins offer a Bobby Witt type extension, because he seems like the type of guy that will hit into his late 30's. The team is under little pressure to really try to lock up though because he is arb eligible through age 29 season. He does not have a reason to sign away FA years though because it will eat into his overall possible deal. I could see, unless things change in the next few years, him still getting a 9 to 11 year deal from a top market team at age 30.
  15. Trov
    I think Sabato could do similar to Rooker. Both bat only college guys. Rooker made debut in 2020, but that was 7 games due to injury and short season. Then we thought he had it, and in 2021 we learned he still was a work in progress. He was 26 that season. At age 27 season he bounced around a few teams AAA and MLB and did nothing MLB level. Finally, the real life Major League actively trying to lose Oakland A's brought him at age 28. He had an out of the this world April, and then rest of ugh season. Now 29 Rooker is doing decent. He will never get a long term second deal, he may not even get through his arb years, but he is playing MLB ball. I could see Sabato making similar run in his late 20's getting a few okay seasons from either us or another team that needs to fill holes in roster with cheap guys. Will he be an all-star ever, doubtful, but could he have a hot few months yeah. Luke Raley is another guy, that at age 28 finally got a long run and put up some good numbers for a month or two. We have a need at 1b possibly in the future so if we could get something like that out of him I would take it.
  16. Trov
    Why would Vlad sign that deal? He is making nearly 20 mil this year and will get raise, how arb works next year. So he would take a pay cut for at least 1 year? Doubtful. He would be more like to take his arb year, make over 20 mil, then try to get long term deal and at worse do short term because he is young enough that he could enter FA again around 29 to 30 and seek 6 year deal if he bounces back.
  17. Trov
    Personally, at this point not sure why people are high on Vlad Jr. I get he has history of doing well, and very well could bounce back, but he has been a first half player in his career, he is not a good defender at 1B, and he is costly. We would most likely bring him back next for more than this year. The question would be how much money would Twins get from Jays, and what would we need to give up. This season Vlad is putting up similar numbers to Santana. So I ask, why give up prospects, to get an offense guy that is hitting similar to who we have with same level defense? Additionally, if you feel you need the offense upgraded over Santana, we have Miranda to fill in and have poor defense at first. Vlad is still very young and may just be a bump in the road, but there is a reason his numbers are not good, compared to career numbers, and there may be underlying injury that take him out for long term second half too. Overall, Vlad last 2 seasons have been dropping off from his first few seasons. Last year was not terrible, but outside of 2021 and 2022, his career has been just above average offense. Vlad has a ton of risk, and think would cost too much in prospects and missed opportunities next year for what it will cost in arb money to bring back.
  18. Trov
    I agree the calling injury when getting demoted was most likely a move by AK to keep getting service time. It will burn some bridges in FO. However, you also appear to be hinting at both AK and Joe Ryan lying about said injuries and they are just making things up to account for poor performances. In terms of Ryan pretty sure the data supports what was relayed, being he was great for long stretch last year, then he was terrible, which is when he reported the injury came up, after rest he comes back and is good again. He did have 2 not good starts in September out of 6. AK has been similar, when he reports he is fully healthy he seems to before well, but then he reports he has various injuries, which hurts his performance. That is most likely true. The problem is those injuries come up too often for him and it really hurts his overall performance.
  19. Trov
    Royce is doing some crazy things. If he can stay healthy he could take us very far for next several years. However, he, similar to Buck, has shown a great ability to get hurt in many different ways. Lets hope they were mostly flukes now and behind him.
  20. Trov
    Is it actual adjustments, or is it the fact his shoulder is healthy? I get it was his back shoulder and not his lead swing shoulder, but there is no way you can tell me that having pain in your shoulder with every swing did not affect it last year. There was the article the other day about players and playing through injuries and he was one trying to play through a shoulder injury last year and clearly did not go well.
  21. Trov
    Lee would play 2nd most likely. Then Castro will be freed to move back to OF. Really if Kepler goes down, Lee could be the call up and you use Castro mainly as OF.
  22. Trov
    In baseball, HURT is basically INJURED more often than not. Because when the smallest of adjustment to a swing or pitch means the difference between good or bad result. Your body will, as a reflex, adjust what you are doing to avoid pain, even when just HURT, which will cause your swing or pitching to be off. INJURED in other sports are that you cannot do the activity you are supposed to be doing. In football defense players have been known to play with broken hands because even though it will lower their chance of getting an interception or fumble recovery, they can do their main goal of tackling or breaking up a pass. Running backs can play with hurt upper body because their legs are still good they can adjust. Just think about when you have a little bit of pain you have a little wince and move ever so slightly, maybe just a tiny bit, but when moving the bat just a tiny bit will be difference between a barrel and a soft contact or miss completely.
  23. Trov
    I think younger non-established players will feel more internal pressure, even more so someone like AK, to play through pain. One, they do not want someone else to come in and take their spot, just as happened last year when Larnach and Polanco came in, Wallner and Julien came in and took the spot from them. Both this year played themselves back to AAA, but they played well enough to force team to roll with them rest of the way. CC was getting paid at a level he will not get put down the pecking order for a long time. When a young player gets passed in pecking order it gets hard to get back to top. Ryan last year should have said something sooner. I can get trying to pitch through it one game or two to see, but clearly he was off and he should have brought it up sooner. So should have AK this year, but I can understand why he tried to play through it. The problem is in baseball, little injuries affects performance so much more than in other sports, in my opinion. That is because the margin for error is so small when you compare it to other sports. When you have a little pain, or a lot, it will cause you to adjust your throw, or swing to try to stop the pain, it is a reflex of the body and little you can do to stop it. This then causes you to not be good with location in pitches, or swing and miss squaring up the ball when hitting. I think the team could do a better job of approaching players though when they can tell something is off and try to find out if injuries are the issue.
  24. Trov
    Good for Sabato on his hot run. If he can have a good rest of the season he may get a chance to take a first base/dh roll for a few years. He may have just been a real late bloomer. I know very SSS so not getting to excited but with AK never being able to be healthy, there will be a spot soon.
  25. Trov
    The organizational shift under this front office has clearly shown an ability to get college arms and push them to the next level. This is now getting set up similar to Cleveland, which really was the goal. To continue to have 1 to 2 guys each year that will hopefully step in when needed to make some good starts. It allows you to not overpay for pitchers in FA or via trades. There are many guys that could they have avoided injuries may have had larger impacts too by this point. Projecting pitching is one of the hardest things to do. Some of the "best" arms in drafts that go early in drafts never make majors or fizzle out quickly in majors where pitchers drafted much later turn into good MLB pitchers. Many times it is injury and lack of growth of secondary pitches that lead to it. I do think there should be a rule though, never draft a Rice pitcher. That team will burn up the kids arm by end of college and they always need many surgeries when they get out of college.
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