Trov

You also have no clue had they been left in if they would have got the win. We will never know. We attack a move when it does not work, but rarely say that was a great move there when it does work. If we leave in any of those guys longer and they give up the lead Rocco gets attacked for leaving a guy in too long.

He is climbing up prospect rankings, MLB has him 5th in Twins right now, behind Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez, and Festa. Prospect rankings are fun to look at but they do not mean a whole lot when it comes time to play at the MLB level. Lee was/is ranked higher because he was at least an average defending SS, Keaschall is considered a poor defender overall. If he can learn CF and play it even average and hit like he has show, then yeah he will be huge. Lee was always talked big on because he was expected to have solid floor but not sky high ceiling.

Compare Kurt Schilling and Zach Greinke. Schilling did not make hall, and maybe because of his political views, but his numbers are better than Greinke, and he had more big moments people remember. The numbers are very close but Schilling never made it. I do not think voters care if he is the best on the ballot at pitching for years. There is no requirement anyone needs to go in any year, let alone a pitcher. The last pitchers voted in were 2019, when 3 went in same year. Before that, 2018 1 went in. Then in 2015 3 went in as well. Point is they do not have to put in a pitcher, and you never know what the voters will look at to decide.

If the voters change up their thoughts, which they do seem to be, based on guys like Helton getting in, but pitching they have lagged behind. Greinke, has the longevity and had a good run for 10 seasons, which should get him HOF, but you never know how voters will go. I was shocked when Santana was bounced first ballot, when in his 12 seasons, but really like 9 seasons, he was one of best if not the best pitcher in the game during those 9 seasons. I do feel the voters now are looking at the larger hall, let the best of their era get in, even if they may not have put up the same numbers as others in the hall. In the past, the voters did not care if they were best of their era, but cared how they compared to others. I think the new voters understand the game has evolved over time and the counting stats are not the same as they used to be. However, I still feel like the voters look more than just a great 7 to 9 year run.

Castro is the type of player the Twins love to have. He can play many positions, hits from both sides, and has speed, not super speed but is not slow. I agree he very well may be our MVP because he has played all over, and allows Rocco to move other guys around because Castro can fill the holes left. Good for him making all star team.

I agree we do not need a righty set up man. We could use upgrade from left side though.

I would say Grienke is not 100%, based on how HOF voting for pitchers have gone. He has a high WAR but he also has pitched a lot in his career. He only has 1 cy young, maybe should have had 2, but he is not a lock in my opinion, and with voters on pitching he is a fringe guy I think. The other starters listed for sure. The closers you never know how voters feel. They have the number of saves but people are getting off save stat as important either. As for the hitters you list, Trout is for sure, Votto I am not sold on at all. He is very good, but based on his age and seasons played his counting stats are a little low. He played an offensive position and much of his OPS which is very good, was done by huge walk rate. I think the fact he played 1b and not considered a strong defender will hurt his chances. Betts is fully on pace and barring huge drop off of production should be in. Paul Goldschmidt I am not sold on either. He is similar to Votto, just not played as long and this year he is not doing well, if he drops off or retires soon, I am not saying HOF for him. He is not even at 2000 hits yet. Freeman will need to play a few more years of good ball to be a lock. He is on his way, but at 34 if he drops off quickly he will be a fringe guy too. Ohtahani is well on his way and barring huge drop off will be a lock. Of your 90% guys, Ramirez will need to have a few more very good years to get there. He is on his way but at 31 could drop off. He is yet to win an MVP or any offense title, and average defender. Arenado is more fringe. He was a top defender but he is going to have to play several more years at a high level. Machado is similar to Ramirez, been good but never great. He is still only 31 so if he can stay good into his late 30's he will have a chance. Perez is hard to judge because he is a catcher and you need to take that into account. Overall his numbers would not warrant HOF at any other position. He only finished top 10 MVP 1 time at 7th other than that just solid numbers as a catcher. Some said Joe, who was first ballot was fringe guy, and Mauers numbers much better than Perez on the whole. Altuve is well on way and not showing signs of slowing down, if he can keep up a few more years he should be a lock. Judge will need to keep hitting HR at huge rate to make it. He will get every chance, and being the best Yankee for his time will give him a boost, but if his power drops he will not make it I think. Harper is on the path too, will just need to maintain into later 30's, he is only 31. I would not put Turner on there yet, not over plenty of others, like Seagar, or Correa, both guys play SS and have better career numbers at younger age. The HOF is in interesting time because pitchers numbers are no where near what they used to be, so hard to tell who will make it. Really, if they are one of best of their time for long period they should go, but how long? For hitters, I think the 3,000 hits are rare to come by now, or the 500 HR that used to be locks, but I still think they look at how they did over their time and how did they compare to others in their time at their position. Where they one of the best, or where they just good? Mike Trout, at this point, does not have the counting stats to get in, but for 8 years was considered best in the game at a top defensive position. You may be right with most of them because the counting stats are not as important any more.

Had we not started so bad we would be talked about one of best teams in baseball, as we have had a top record since our terrible start. The Yankees are on the other side of the coin, they started off so hot. They were 50 and 22 after June 14th game. As of today, they are 56 and 38. Meaning they have gone 6 and 16 over last 22 games. That is terrible. That is only 3 games better than how White Sox started their first 22 games. Of course each game counts, but the Yankees world is coming down but still is leading the wild card by 4.5 games, because they had huge cushion. Cleveland has yet to have a bad run overall. I feel fans here feel like the team is doing much worse than we really are, and since the 7-13 start we are doing pretty well. Since that time we are 19 games above .500. We are testing our starting pitching depth, and do not have anyone that is considered a cy young person, but we have 5 solid starters overall, no one when they start do I say, well we better score a ton today. Our offense has become one of best in baseball, and this has been sustained for awhile. We are 4th in runs scored, 4th in HR, 3rd in OPS. We really need to work on the pen for the most part and hope health of the rotation holds.

I fully agree it is so hard to predict how a HS are will develop and even harder with 16 year old. We never know if a kid is done growing, will he fill out, and how will his arm hold up as he ages. Even for hitters that young it is hard to predict and some times the top paid guy is the best in class, but other times the lower end paid guy is. I point to Juan Soto signing class. He signed 1.5 Tatis Jr. signed 700K, we signed Wander Javier for 4 mil, Vlad Jr. Signed for 3.9, Gilberto Cellisto signed for 2.5, Andres Gimminez signed 1.2. There were several that signed for 2 plus and very few ever made majors is my point but guys that paid much less did much better sooner than later too. Signing a 16 year old kid is a crap shoot that he will ever be anything in the future.

Texas is not selling in my opinion. They are 5.5 out of their division race and 7 out of wild card. They just won a WS last year and have a team built to win in playoffs. They may even buy at the deadline if anything. They spent a ton of money last few years to keep winning not selling and rebuilding. Even the guys that are FA at end of year they are not likely to trade away unless it is for MLB ready talent now or very soon.

I agree about the importance of Catchers, which is why you see some catchers like Vasquez still have jobs despite being terrible at plate. Most of the time teams take top hitting catchers off the position because it is hell on your knees, and cuts your career short for most players and saps their offense. Only the HOF guys can stick it out and be good on offense. Rarely do you see a guy with good arm move to catcher, but more often they get moved off the position. If you can be a good catcher and stick there it is an easier path to majors, but it is a hard way to get there because of the wear and tear on body. Not just the knees, but all the foul tips into face, onto hand, legs, everywhere.

The returning pitchers are the only ones that would affect trade deadline plans. If both return and can pitch to expectations there is little need for a high leverage arm from right side. We would still need upgrade from left side. The position players are covered by our depth. It may allow us to use some of our depth to trade for a pitcher if needed though.

This is more for fun, but imagine if the Reentry Rule was in place at MLB level. Players that have good platoon advantages would get a huge boost. For example, right now we have Matt Wallner, and Manuel Margot on our team. They are both huge platoon advantage guys. Wallner crushes RH pitching overall, and is about as bad a pitcher used to be when they hit against LH. Margot is not quite as powerful against LH pitchers, but has above average OPS, this year .829, but is terrible against RH. We have other strong splits out there too. It has happened less this year, but last year, Rocco would sub out the platoon guys the first chance he could, sometimes making the next 1 or 2 at bats not good. So lets allow a couple of reentry moves. Not just for at-bats, but running bases too. Lets get some more fun in the game always letting a guys top skill be seen, and stop making their worst skills be seen. Who cares that it will make pitching moves pointless we want offense. Let the Twins sub out Wallner against LH guy only to bring back in later in game when a RH is on the mound.

Well, are those 80 ab's against lefties? I would not want to see a single at bat of Wallner against a leftie over Margot. I agree Wallner looks good in his 2 games and crushed several balls against righties. but Margot still has a .OPS of .829 against lefties this year. Margot is terrible against righties. They are like the perfect platoon guys. So if Wallner is hitting against RH, him all day. If a LH is on mound Margot over Wallner all day.

That Wallner HR was crazy hard hit. I know just 2 games back but he looks like the guy that had a good second half last year. Hopefully he is up here for good the rest of the year hitting balls so hard it may tear the glove off defenders hand if they do touch it.

He made good adjustment to start year, now league is adjusting to him again, and he needs to adjust to that. He has shown and ability to hit at this level, but will he be a star, doubtful. He is the classic DH corner outfield guy that if he is average hitter he is not worth much. Kepler is average hitter but plays great defense. Wallner, when hitting like he can, is a plus hitter and has more value than Larnach. We have several other guys that could fill in for Larnach and not be out much. I was happy what he was doing this year overall, but clearly he is fading from his hot start.

I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts. I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed. Not sure what the ask would be. It really is a sellers market right now. In the NL only 2 teams are fully out of playoff chance. There are several teams that are not likely to be buyers, depending on what happens next couple of weeks but may not be full fire sale either. In AL there are 3 teams fully out of it, 2 teams that are pretty much out, Toronto being one of them, and 4 teams within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Texas is one of them and I bet they look to buy to give a push because they have a roster that can win in playoffs if they get there. Top end pitching if healthy and can be a strong offense.

Tim Anderson was overrated in my opinion. He hit very well, but was terrible fielder. I am not surprised as his huge drop off in his age. He is the classic average MLB player. Came up at 23, really had good years in 26 to 29 peak years, then drops of quickly. One issue though is he is known for having poor clubhouse presence and attitude so will not have too many more chances.

Biggest surprise for me is the long streaks at the beginning of the year, both losing and winning streaks. They have got back to a more consistent 2 out of 3 type thing. Not sure how often a team has streaks as long as they had on both sides in a season. I am would who deserves the most credit is FO for not overreacting to slow start and building good depth. Lopez has been a little disappointing, but his FIP is much lower than his ERA suggesting some better outcomes in future. I expect we will make postseason, at minimum as wild card, but feel like we could catch Cleveland. Cleveland has historically faded in second half in past few years. They have a top heavy line up that a couple of guys are playing well above their career norms. They have a good pen, but with poor starters that pen will start to get overworked.

Lee looks to be very solid hitter. He has had a bit of luck so far, but he has hit a few solid hard hits too. The ball he got a hit on yesterday where Altuve bobbled the ball, first called error, then a hit, would most likely been an out had Altuve left it for Pena. Lee has had a few other slow rollers just in the right spot. However, He has not struck out much and gives himself a chance to get a hit. He could be hitting about .300 if his soft rollers were stopped and not just made it through. He made a great play at 3rd yesterday, playing back and came in on a bunt attempt for a hit. It was not a great attempt, but Lee was back on dirt. Lee nailed him by plenty. He for sure looks ready to play every day this level, and think when Lewis is ready Farmer will get shopped or DFA.

In regards tot he 2022 numbers, assuming we would have added him to 40 man and called up in September, if he had similar numbers, Steer slashed .211/.306/.632 for OPS+ of 74. Guessing that would not have added much wins for us. Assuming he does replace Solano on the 2023 roster, again not clear that would have happened being we had other guys on roster ranked ahead of him on prospect list as well. Lets assume he would have broke camp and got all the at-bats Solano got. Steer would have produced more offense, as he had more slugging and much more HR, but he got on base less often, and his defense was worse. Overall, it would have been net gain, but not a huge increase. Additionally, we do not know how this would have affected other moves the team made. Maybe Julien never gets a call up because Steer is playing instead if he is on team, and he had higher OPS+ then Steer last year. Would Steer have been possible upgrade last year over who we used, possible, but would we have just went with him out of camp like Reds did, doubtful. There is good chance he would have stayed in AAA all year, depending what he was doing down there.

Steer may or may not be part of Reds long term plan. He is getting at bats, but still not locked into a position. He has played half LF and half 1B mainly. I disagree with the claim the trade will only look worse as time passes, unless you are only looking at WAR. You need to also remember, Steer was not on 40 man that year, he would have had to be put on 40 man the next year, which may have cost a different prospect. Additionally, if we keep Steer and he does what he is doing, slightly above average hitter, do we feel different players are tradable then? Would we trade Julien away, and what if Julien turns out to be the better player down the road, unless the player or players we get in return of Julien int he hypothetical were that much better would it have been better to keep Steer. Each move affects other moves. If we keep Steer and CES, and do not trade them elsewhere, do we lose them in rule 5, do we lose someone else in rule 5, or do we trade away a different player to allow them to get playing time, or do we just leave them in AAA? I am not saying we clearly got the raw end of the trade being we almost nothing from Mahle, but my point is to say the trades on the list were bad because we got less bWAR from the players coming versus going out is not a good way to evaluate a trade as a whole. I used Steer as an example because he has been the most productive for a guy we sent out mostly.

I fully agree Steer could have been used in potential other trade, and sucks Mahle got hurt right away for us. However, without knowing what other options there were with Steer hard to determine that as well.

It is nice to see guys put up some good numbers to start to push for chances in next year or too. You can never have too much pitching as guys get hurt or fall off production.

Pretty easy to predict based on current roster and no injuries setting in. Personally, I see 1st base as a possible move by Twins in offseason again. No one on our current roster are considered strong defenders there, and unless they rake like crazy having average offense and bad defense is not good combo at 1st. In addition, so many of these guys are pushing each other could get traded in off-season, or at deadline.