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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I have long said the biggest issue with the team is situational hitting. They were way too shifted to the 3 true outcome approach and undervalued singles, and hitting the ball the other way. Even just changing approach based on game situation, how you are being pitched ect. Too many analytic people look at the overall numbers and say they even out, but when you are looking at single games they do not. For example, in a three game series you win one game by 5 runs and lose the other two games by 1 run. You now have a run differential of plus 3 runs, but you lose the series. Piling on in games you win does not help you win the close games. I would watch so many hitters get great pitches to line the other way that they either took for strikes or tried to pull. Then I watch some of the best teams just over and over get base hits against us the opposite way. Power is needed in a line up, but 9 guys that are power guys will not do it. You need balance and guys that can take walks, get singles and run the bases well. You need guys that can hit HR, but understand when you just need a run in you know how to make sure you get ball in play and not strike out.
  2. Trov
    I get he is saying that to try to get Bregman to return, but unlikely to happen. Would be great to see him running around in LF.
  3. Trov
    Bat first, no defense sounds like a typical Falvey pick. If his bat can really be great we can deal with the terrible defense he is expected to produce. I am not going to get overly excited as Julien was in similar spot and even had great rookie year, now we are wondering if he should be DFA after a terrible second year.
  4. Trov
    I am personally not concerned about lack of moves, unlike some. The roster has the ability to be a good team, but it needs health and consistency. The biggest hole will be back up to Buck when he gets hurt. Last year the team had a complete collapse of offense late in the year, mainly brought on by injury and Lewis getting in worst slump of his career. Miranda, who helped carry team in June and early July had injury pop up in his back, and then was unplayable the rest of the year. Jeffers did what he does and is possible all-star, or unplayable as well. September he was unplayable. Castro went from all-star to unplayable as well. You add in a few bullpen blow ups at very bad timing and the team just fell off a cliff. Will they be favored to win the WS of course not, but they never will be, not unless a true salary cap gets put in. Point is, team has the possibility to do something if the players can be a little more consistent. Everyone seemed to crash all at same time in September.
  5. Trov
    I find it interesting that Padres are shopping Cease. They would clearly have no intention of resigning him in offseason. After giving up some prospects for 1 year, and they are still in a win now mentality, but more shifting to a Rays/Cleveland type of reloading from players set to walk in FA. If you could get him for Vasequez and one of our pre-arb arms it might be worth it on the 1 year rental. It would jump us to possibly top rotation in the division having the second best starter in the division. The biggest question is do you believe in his health this year? He is 29, pitched full seasons 4 years in a row, 5 if you count 2020 as a full season, being he did not miss any games. He may be in a possible injury year which is a big risk if you are dealing any of your current starters to get him.
  6. Trov
    I am less worried about his bat speed, although this info does point why age 30 to 31 is really when guys start to drop off a ton in production. I am more worried about his drop in run speed, which was a big reason why he was so good, when he could actually play.
  7. Trov
    I think Lewis or Lee will get 2nd and the other will get 3rd to break camp, barring just a terrible camp by Lee. Castro, if still on team, will do what he does and float around the field. Personally, I would love to see Eeles force some hands because he tears up AAA.
  8. Trov
    I understand the team wanting to trade Paddack, based on what he is making. However, I do not understand why many teams would be seeking him, or why we would be so interesting in keeping him if a decent teal comes along. Specifically, people talking about him giving us depth. What depth does he give us? We have needed depth the last couple years because we counted on him. In 3 years he has pitched a total of 115 innings. I do not see how we can expect him to pitch much. He has never been amazing pitcher. His rookie season he did well, but since then never was either healthy or pitched nearly as good. If we can get anything for him of much value take the deal. He does not give you depth, and he will most likely get hurt this year and even if he does not he is a 5th starter at best, but would be better suited as a pen arm at this point.
  9. Trov
    The problem with LH corner outfielders that are more bat than glove is that there are a ton available. Which makes their value in trade almost nil. Sure, we can want to trade one of them but what will either bring back is almost nothing. Neither have shown that they are more than an average player overall. Wallner most likely more upside due to his power, but he also strikes out a bit more. Larnach has been better on defense but less pop at the plate. Neither will fetch a ton at this point. Trade if you want because they are doubled up in our line up, but do not expect much in return.
  10. Trov
    I am a medium hall guy. I am not the small hall like many want, but I do think it should really mean something. That also being said I am a fan of the more compare to the era they played in and how did they compare to their counterparts at the time. I am a longevity guy too, unless it was a career ending injury that stop the player, however they need the peak numbers too. In terms of the performance enhancing drugs era I agree that if most were using, you compare them to their counter parts. I also agree that if the numbers were there before any use was really established then let them in. Personally, I do not know why Ichiro was not unanimous. Pitchers right now are so hard to determine. Take Hernandez for example. His peak was one of best pitcher in the game. Then he fell off the cliff like many pitchers do. Injuries started to set in, not career ending exactly but he never adapted to his loss in stuff. I would not be opposed to him being in, but if he gets in I still ask why Johan did not get in. He did not even get past first ballot, which is crazy in my mind. I do feel pitchers should show longevity because it showed how good they really were when they could adjust to their loss in stuff. Again, injuries that made them retire should be considered but there are many pitchers on a HOF path in 20's only to hit the cliff at 30 and never pitcher after 33 because they lost it completely. One reason giving a pitcher a long term deal at age 30 is a huge risk.
  11. Trov
    You will be hard pressed to find too many owners that will have no problem losing millions of dollars year in and year out, some will if they are making a ton from other businesses. From my understanding most owners hope to break even over the seasons if not a small profit, but few try to make huge profits from the year to year operations.
  12. Trov
    I am not worried about the Ishbas moving the team. The clearly are business people and will go where the best money is most likely. What concerns me more is that they are clear business people, similar to the Pholads were. They may be sports fans though and be happy with just trying to increase the value of the team, operate at a loss if it means helping the team win and just write if off against their other, clearly profitable businesses. They talk a good game for NBA, but the NBA is in a bit different place than MLB. One the CBA calls for split of revenue, so both sides have a real interest in increasing revenue, because as it increase both side get more. In MLB there is no split and it is a fight for the biggest piece of pie, which I feel sometimes leads to a smaller pie overall.
  13. Trov
    I personally will be watching Payton Eeles. I get he will be limited to most likely 2nd base or DH so limits his chances of making Twins. However, his ability to hit at minors cannot be ignored. If some of the other young guys start to struggle out the gate and Eeles continues the way the was last year I bet we see him at some point. I mean he had an OBP of .419 at AAA with OPS of .919. If he can be even close to that there should be a place in the line up. He also stole bases at a 80% success rate, with a total of 41 last year. Those numbers could fit nice in the lead off spot. To compare to an old friend Arraez, he never had OBP over 400 and had around 800 OPS in minors. He never stole bases either. Not saying he will get base hits like Arraez as he was better average in minors than Eeles showed last year, but Eeles should not be overlooked by people. I am rooting for him and hope he is given a legit chance to show something. It will be fun to see him in some spring games.
  14. Trov
    ahh yes you are correct, he signed in 2013.
  15. Trov
    This idea just seems odd. We are stuck on payroll, so we are going to take on payroll from a team that is looking to dump payroll as well?
  16. Trov
    International signings are about as big of crap shoot you can get. You look at a 16 year old and bet they will become something. Sometimes you hit, more often you miss. What is crazy is that Sano, Poloco, and Kepler all were the same signing year. Many times the top rank international prospect rarely is the best that comes out. Sure we wished we would hit more, but many teams are in same boat.
  17. Trov
    This is a lottery ticket trade. He gets back to where he was a couple years ago it is great deal. If he does not, most likely it only gets mentioned when someone does a deep dive of trades made over the years.
  18. Trov
    This may be true, but in reality only about 3 to 4 draft classes should have players making the MLB beyond rookie year. College guys generally take 3 years to make debut, unless high pick stud. Most guys take at least 2 years to get to be an All Star, again unless high pick stud. So really only the drafts of 2017 through 2020 should be looked at for this, and that is only if college guys were taken. The high school kids, like Lewis take 4 to 6 years out of high school to make debut normally. Lewis, assuming can stay healthy, will likely make an all star team one day, hopefully this year. Baily Ober very well could make an All Star team this year too if he avoids early blow up games. Jeffers was close to All Star last year when he started season but is too streaky. There will be some guys in coming years. All that being said, All Star selections is a terrible way to measure how good a player was. With fact 1 has to come from each team, and fan votes decide starters historically, things got was skewed. Remember the year that Royals had ton of starters? For Twins, Hrbek made 1 all-star team in 82. In 84 he was number 2 in MVP voting did not make all star team. Ron Coomer made an All Star game for Twins. Also, Luis Arraez was not drafted by Falvy, but he was international signing and he was All Star for Twins. That should count for something too.
  19. Trov
    Outside of the very large markets most teams are in a wait and see situation with what is going to happy in revenue over next few years. Even if they did, or will not lose, their own media contracts, MLB shares around 50% of media with each other. Therefore, with many teams losing out on their media contracts and going to much lower profit of working with MLB there is less money to go around to all teams. The players are not going to agree to lower contracts based on that. The AL central has 1 large market team that is fully rebuilding and is the 2nd team out of Chicago. Detroit is a large market but they have not done well signing guys to long term deals lately. They tend to be on a cycle of making big moves and it seems like they should be on the making a move. KC and Cleveland are as small if not smaller than Twins market is. KC made their moves last year as they have a lot of long term money tied up. Cleveland is always looking to stay lower payroll and trade away guys nearing FA for younger guys all the time. This is always the risk when you pick guys to be your guys, Buck, CC, and Lopez, because when you sign long term deals you are tied to that guy for years, better or worse. You will not have much chance making more big splashes until their money is off the books.
  20. Trov
    I am one that does not overvalue pen guys. I love Duran but one he is most likely going to face some injury sooner than later. He lost velo and despite still being crazy fast he was getting beat last year much more than year prior. His FIP was actually better this past year than prior year. His rookie year is still his best year. It is possible that as players are seeing him he is getting figured out more. I would not oppose trading him if the team feels like he will continue to lose value. However, it is a huge risk because our pen is thin already. Trading him will make it even thinner.
  21. Trov
    I am all for platooning as long as the team is will to not follow it like a book. Specifically, when an opener starts the game, and then before a guy even gets 1 at bat you pinch hit because the same sided pitcher comes in next. The issue is then you burn that move for later on, but even more if it is say a lefty early in game, then you cannot use them later in game when you have the platoon advantage. There are times last year where sometimes Rocco let a lefty hit early in game against a lefty, but not often. I get if you are in say the 5th and a big at bat comes up, you want the best chance of getting runs in, however, if the at bat is not big why do it just to try to get a single hit with 2 outs in 5th?
  22. Trov
    He had an okay career but was ready for a big drop in production due to age and never being dominate, outside his late run in 23. There is a reason not much interest in him for his asking price and he fired his agent because he most likely turned down better deal in hopes of even better but then held out for his pillow deal that looks like a bad deal for AZ. Maybe full spring will help him bounce back. My guess AZ keeps him and does not send him away for either paying his deal, or not paying his deal but send prospects back too. Why pay him to play for someone else when you need as many possible starters you can get each year?
  23. Trov
    My guess the move goes down as a no one really remembers that it happened. I doubt either player makes a huge impact for their teams. Gasper did have a good AAA run last year with Boston, but his history is not there. I think it is depth move and maybe the FO thinks they could unlock something in him for a year or two worth of value.
  24. Trov
    Personally the only one I would take a flier on is Rizzo. The rest I would pass on and do internal fill. Rizzo is coming off a couple of down years, and could be cooked so I would not invest a lot in him. However, he was always a good on base guy and we could use that type of veteran leader type guy.
  25. Trov
    Mat Ishbia says all the right things for fans and has backed it up some. However, there is a huge difference between NBA and MLB when it comes to revenue. In NBA they split the revenue either 50/50 or very close. Meaning when the game grows both sides see money and they share it. In MLB there is no sharing, both sides fight for the biggest piece of pie they can get. Neither care about fans or growing the sport, they care about taking what they can and see the fans as way to line their pockets. Players have gone to the point to argue that money not made on baseball, but made from owning things near the stadiums that would not make as much money if there was not games should go to the players too. They have at least limited it to businesses the owners own and not knocking on doors of other business demanding fees for playing games. NBA learned that when you get fans engaged and following the sport it helps everyone in the sport. MLB has long fought between the players and owners to get as much as they could, at the fans expense for years.
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