Trov

The decision to add or not is not based on if you think they will eventually become an MLB player or contribute there, but will a team be willing to take them from you having to use a 26 man roster spot. Rule 5 picks are commonly pitchers with high upside that normally do not have a 2nd pitch yet. They can be stashed at back of pen. Sounds like Adams is in that roll. The position players that were left off may be taken by a fully rebuilding team, A's or White Sox come to mind. They may take someone hoping that the player can grow at the MLB level. However, there is reason they were left off because the team does not think they are MLB ready nor will be for at least a full year or two. I have a feeling Rosario's shoulder is still bothering him. His K rate is up and power is down over the last year. Not a good combo for a hitter.

Being they have several slots I would see Raya, Olivar, Rosario for sure. I think they leave at least 1 spot if they want to take a rule 5 themselves. I would agree Rosario could get taken by A's or another bottom feeding team looking to hopefully get a kid a year or two early. When Badoo was first taken many were upset on here and he had a hot start in Detroit, but since he has not panned out very well. Personally, I am not high on Rosario. He has pop, but his K-Rate is way too high. Position players rarely get taken in rule 5 due to having to be on roster all year, only teams on a full rebuild can do it. Pitchers can be stashed an only pitch in mop up games all year, but hitters will need to play and not just in mop up spots.

This is common for most teams. It is because out of HS or College the SS and CF are normally the best player on the team. However, when you take all the best players on the teams and put them in 1 pool, only the best of the best will rise tot he top, and the others will filter down to other positions. SS can always shift to other positions, but other position players cannot normally shift to SS. Right now we have CC at SS who is better than anyone we have, so they have to find new positions at MLB level. However in a few years CC will most likely need to move off SS due to age, which will get maybe some like Culpepper a chance there.

Yes, he will need to really work on that. If he does not he will not be a viable player at MLB level when pitchers just get that much better with their off speed stuff.

I guess my thoughts are if the team feels putting him in rotation gives them the best chance to make playoffs in a 162 game season, then look into that. I do not know if he will be better at starting than any of the others on our list. Could some of them get moved to pen and do well? I fully get why Jax would want to, mostly the money. He is going to be 30 next year, birthday next week, and still will not be FA until his 32 season. A good year starting, some pen guys did that last year switching back to starters, could fetch him several more millions in his mid-30's. I would be willing to give him a shot, but not give him the roll. Let him fight it out over other guys and see who is better and can go through lineup over 2 times.

If he wants a smaller market media that is generally nicer on players MN is a place to go over the larger markets. My guess he still picks Dodgers because having guys from his country will be easier to transition. However, you never know. People make decision for many different reasons. Since it is not all about the money for him, being he will be capped by teams bonus pools, other reasons will play a major factor.

Paul Goldschmidt would be out the price range? I get he has a good history, but he is coming off a 1.3 bWAR season. He is 37. I doubt he gets a large deal. He will get offers, but only smaller offers in case he is cooked. He plays 1b, and not a great defender there, and he was below league average hitter last year. Not exactly someone that people will be throwing money at. Yes, he has had a great career, and could be a HOF, but he is coming off a very down year. He was not given a QO in fear he might accept it. Yes, that was from a salary dumping team, but he might be more of a platoon vet now and not a full time starter.

Maybe they would get those offers if not having the QO attached. However, as we have seen the middle of the road FA get hosed in offers because of the QO. Many teams will not even want to sign them because of how the QO will hit them. Which then limits the demand. Which then if only 1 or 2 teams are in many will not pump up the price against themselves. So then the players either take less than they normally would, or hold out. Many hold out, sign mid-season to a 1 year deal and most of the time hurt their value, sign the next year to a lessor deal. That is why I suggest the ones I did should sign, get the money, then hit FA next year again hoping to get a deal then. It is a huge risk from some to turn it down hoping teams are willing to give up possible draft picks, international signing money, or revenue sharing. That just makes the FA that more expensive to the overall development of the team. The picks are the biggest thing. Even if that particular pick would not pan out at MLB in the future, the bonus pool is hurt, and the players could be used for future trades. It has a huge effect down the road. That is part of the reason so many teams shy away from middle of road FA on shorter term deals when a QO are attached.

The multi year versus single year will play into it. Which is why some will and should turn it down for that reason. However, many I pointed out are at an age a 3 to 5 year deal is not likely, and most teams will only look for a 1 to 2 year deal. Some of the guys are 33 to 34 years old and had peak years. Will they get a 3 year deal worth say 40 mil, doubtful. Maybe, but doubtful. They may get like a 2 year 25 to 30, but is that much better then a 21 plus what you can get a second year, maybe not. We have seen too many players hoping on getting that multi year deal only to not get it and then sign mid-season and have come back the next year signing a 1 year deal on a prove it contract.

The QO became a killer for the middle of the road FA guys. Early on a lot of fringe guys were getting it and everyone turned it down. However, the players started to learn unless you are a superstar teams were not too keen on giving up draft picks, bonus pool money, or other perks like revenue sharing, depending on where you all fall in with things. Players finally started to accept the offers when they realized turning it down would affect them long term.

I agree they both most likely will turn it down, but I think they will both be in for rude awakening when offers start coming in. As pointed out many teams are cutting payroll thanks to TV money dropping next year. This means even less money to go around. Alonso is coming off a down year, not a terrible down year but a guy who is 30 and trending down and limited to 1B is not commanding a ton of money these days. Manaea has similar issue that he is aging and never been more than a number 2 pitcher. Michael Wacha similar age, better career numbers could not top, or did not top 21 mil a year in his career and did not have QO tied to him. The issue is the players that turn down the QO try to use it as a starting point 1 year 21 mil. However, teams say yeah you rejected that and we did not offer it. Also, we will have to give up stuff so it costs our team more than 21 mil and need to factor that into our decision. Additionally, some players then seek like 3 to 5 year deals which a guy like Manea will not get, maybe a 3 but doubt that even based on his age. With pitchers you need to also worry about injuries later in career and losing whole years.

The qualifying offers were made. I personally saw some surprising names on the list that I think would be dumb to not sign it. The list is: Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Luis Severino, Juan Soto, Christian Walker. Keep in mind the QO is 21 mil, and many players try to use that as the starting point for pay. There are several no brainers to turn it down because they will clearly get a bigger deal. Soto, Burns, Bregman, Fried to me are the only locks to turn down the offer. I expect many more to turn it down, but as we have seen getting strapped with the QO tag can actually hurt you in FA. Keep in Mind Michael Wacha signed a 3 year deal with average 17 mil a year, min. Adames will most likely turn it down he is still under 30, plays SS and has been good hitter his whole career. However, his defense took a hit last year, and will his bat play at 3rd or 2nd should the need to move come up? I expect he to turn it down and get a deal without much issue. Alonso, he is a big question as to turning it down, or at least should think about taking the offer. He is going to be 30, he is not a good defender at 1st and coming off his worst offensive year. I expect he will turn it down hoping to get multi year deal, but I think he will have a hard time finding a team willing to give him a deal he wants with the QO tag attached. He should sign and prove he still can be a big bopper. Hernandez will most likely turn it down as well. However, I think he should take it. He is 32, not likely to get more than a 2 to 3 year deal at best in normal FA year. He has always been good hitter, and coming off of career year, but will that carry into his mid to late 30's doubtful. His defense has never been great. My guess the QO tag will make teams shy away from him. Manaea should take it, and he just might. He will be 33 next year. He is not likely to get a long term deal as he has never been more than a solid 2 or 3 level starter. Would a team be willing to give him even 1 year 21 mil without QO attached? I doubt it. If he turns it down, I expect he will be the type that signs very late, even after the draft to not have any impact from the QO. Martinez should take it in a heart beat. I was shocked to see him on the list. He is 34, coming off career year and mostly was a pen guy. He started only 16 games last year. He has been good since coming back to the states, but a 34 year old getting 21 mil for even 1 year when he had a career year is not likely. If he turns it down he will not get signed to anything close to 21 mil for 1 year. Pivetta also should take it and be very happy he got it. He will be 32, his profiles as a number 3 type starter, but looking to get paid like a number 1. He has never been a number 1 type guy. He will in no way match 21 mil for 1 year. Sign it and hope to get a 2 year deal next year. Santander is a bit closer call. I think he will turn it down but it will hurt his signabilty as well. He is a solid hitter coming off career power year, he is a big risk of dropping off as he has always been high strike out guy. Will he age well, maybe. I just think teams will shy away. Severino is a very interesting case. He will most likely turn it down, and I think he will get a deal, but he is a guy that had great history, then injuries derailed things, but had a good bounce back year. He would be a solid number 2 guy, and if can stay healthy could be a number 1 type if needed. Walker should sign it too. He is going to be 34, had a great couple of years at age 31 and 32. Last year was good, but trending down. Not too many teams would be willing to give too long of a deal for someone in his shoes, and add in the QO he will be hard pressed to get much more than that. I bet a couple might take it, but most turn it down. However, we have seen many backfire over the years when they do turn it down. They get much less than what they turned down, or get what they turned down, but sign for second half the season, giving up half the money and then have a poor season only to sign a prove it deal the next year. Really wasting 1 year of career earnings. So many of the pitchers line up close to Wacha, if not worse than him, and he did not even get 21 for 1 year. Yeah he got 51 over 3, but that is without QO tag that hurts a FA. Other than the no brainers I listed, I think the pitchers will take a huge risk to turn it down.

If the option was Castro or Donovan, everything being equal, you make a sound argument as to why Donovan or Castro. However, they are not equal. Mainly, we have Castro and can keep him for the money spent, but to get Donovan we would need to trade for him, giving up prospects. Now, if we trade for him first, maybe we can save on some of the prospects we send out, but then when we shop Castro we are clearly looking to sell, and will not get as good of a return most likely. If we trade Castro first, maybe we get better prospects in return but then will be a position of having to give up more to get Donovan. Point is, to shuffle the two around we will need to shuffle prospects around as well, which may not work out well long term. This is basically, make moves to make moves.

E-Rod was put on last year, and so was Servirino. 2020 does not need to be protected yet because they have 5 years. However, picking a 16 year old and projecting them to being MLB player is even more of crap shoot than drafting someone. Most of the top international FA end up being busts and the guys well down the ranking become the best. Take Soto for example. He was the 25th rank international prospect when he signed. Tatis Jr. Signed same year, was 30th ranked. Vlad Jr. was 7th ranked and whole bunch of non-mlb guys were ahead of them too. The fact that Twins had 3 in one year that all had lengthy MLB careers, although non where super stars, is really a crazy situation.

Just because they were DFA does not mean they are out of the organization. Some will be claimed I am sure and who knows they may be back as teams DFA them as well. Relief guys get DFA all the time and bounce around. Servirino has way to high a K rate, with too low of output. His numbers regressed in a full year at AAA which does not help him.

I do not hate the idea, except for from what I read on Rushing is that he needs work at catcher still a bit and not going to be a great defender there. The move to OF may not just be because they are stacked at catcher but because he may need to move off catcher to be legit MLB guy. His bat clearly seems to be there, but Twins want reliable defenders at catcher generally.

I expect they will tender Stewart and Topa. I am not high on Stewart as most are on here. Mainly because in his whole career he has had only 1 good stretch of games. It was a great stretch but very short overall. It was 27 great innings. Josh Staumont had a good, not great 20 innings last year and no one is saying lets bring him back. Also, Stewart has never been healthy long enough to know what he can do long term. Every time he seems to struggle it is always health. Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season. Topa had 1 good season at age 32 and missed all of last year with a knee issue. I still think he gets a shot to come back on cheap. Tonkin has bounced around too much to offer arb too.

You need to balance defense and offense. Very few guys are elite at both. Buck at times had been, but now his defense has dropped and his offense has as well. CC has shown in the past both, but injuries and age like Buck has dragged that down. Last year we accepted less defense for guys like Julien, and Lewis because their offense was so elite. This year, they were not elite on offense, Julien was well below average. You can go out and get elite defenders, but if they cannot hit at all, then what is the point? You can get the 8 best defenders in the league, but if they all hit well below average it will not work out well. If you have amazing hitters that are around average or just below average you will normally take that. Problem is, our offense did not make up for the poor defense last year.

If you are point to his career as a whole at first then yeah he appears to fall into average, however, if you look at last year, which is what the article is about, he was clearly above average by every measure you put on your graph. His UZR/150 was over 2, league average was like 1. His DRS 8, league average just above 6. His OAA was around 13, league was just above 4. Now that last one is an odd stat by name when the name is Outs Above Average, but either way he was well above the league average. So by all accounts, last year he was well above average defender. Historically, no he has graded out as pretty average, however, this was about just last year.

These are some fun and interesting stats. Also, some very sad stats. The Lee sprint speed may have been affected by his injury he had, but not sure on that. Wallner is basically Joey Gallo, for better or worse. Duran is still good, but needs better defense, way too often did he give up weak contact in infield that ended up being a hit. Julien needs to be more aggressive and adjust to pitchers taking advantage of his "eye". He was taking too many strikes and swinging at too many balls. The man looked about as lost as a hitter could be.

He will 100% be tendered. Even if you do not want to pay him because you are worried about his numbers dropping he will have value in trade. You do not just let a talent like him walk to sign wherever in first year of arb.

I love how when we signed Donaldson people were happy we went out and signed a top FA. He was coming of a very good year, and many expected he would help the team. Then it turned out his legs were pretty much shot and his attitude was poor. So we talk about how bad the signing was and we attack the FO for dumping him to NY and give up a utility guy and a backup catcher. We then pivot and sign CC who people loved, except now he has been having injury issues and people are attacking that signing. The FO can do no right. They do a big signing, something fans wanted for years, and it failed, as most do, and we attack them for that. We attack them for pivoting. I do not know how much fans pay attention to other teams FO and how often they do bad signings, bad trades, bad letting guys go. Every FO swings and misses on drafts, signings, and trades. However, there are many hits by this FO. They get attacked if they swing and miss or if they do not swing at all. They never get any praise for a successful move though.

I am not that big on Rosario, mainly because his K rate is just too high. Yeah, he can hit the ball far when he makes contact but a 31% K rate across all his minor league and AZ fall league time from last year is very high. Most guys do not tend to improve that as they move up but it generally gets worse. He may become a fringe MLB guy but there are just too many OF guys that I think will pass him by and more come each year. He does seem to have a knack for hitting lefties so there may be a platoon path in his future if his defense is at least average.

Jenkins had 6 games at AA. Yes, he did not crush in those 6 games, but talk about SSS size. To just look at his numbers in those 6 games 28 plate appearances is nothing to draw any conclusion from. On the bright side on those limited at bats, he walked 3 times, about an 11% rate and only struck out 4 times, about a 15% rate.

So we had the second best bullpen in AL, behind a historically great bullpen, but we still need to talk about how terrible our bullpen was? The bad pen performances is not limited to just the Twins clearly. Every team has issues with having great pens, and really just have a few they can count on, and the rest they just hope do not implode too bad. The article also highlights, but does not really address, how volatile pen guys are. Some of our guys that did terrible had great runs, and then terrible runs. Addison Reed was one of best pen guys in the game at time we signed him, then he was terrible and out of baseball. The writer also addressed prior success stories, but did not talk about Thielbar who was out of baseball had not pitched in majors for 5 years when they brought him in 2020, at age 33 and had 3 great years, 1 good year, and then this terrible year. Lets talk about Cleveland pen real quick. Their closer was crazy good this year. Last year, he cost them 10 blown saves. The year before he was amazing. Even the best in the game you cannot count on to be amazing each year. What sucked about this year was all the guys seemed to implode all at the end of the year in big ways that resulted in big losses. However, still having the second best pen in the AL is nothing to be upset at, it was our terrible offense at the end of the year that really cost us, because the pitchers could never have an off night. You cannot expect every pitcher to be on and pitch well every day.