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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I do not think the contract for Edman reflects Castro's trade value. One, Edman played either CF or SS for Dodgers after the trade, and is expected to play one of them exclusively depending on other moves. Right there makes the comparison not equal. Additionally, how one team like the Dodgers value of a player does not mean other teams would have a similar view. The Dodgers can, and clearly do spend a ton more then everyone else for the most part. They are deferring the money they are paying the players as well down the road. Now, if the Twins could use the appearance of a utility man going for the cost of Edman and would trade for Castro to get a cheaper option, then strike while iron is hot, but my guess it will not change how teams look at Castro.
  2. Trov
    He is a utility player as a starter. He does not have an established starting spot and will move all around, that is why he is a utility player.
  3. Trov
    What helped kill the game for the younger kids is the lack of personality in the game, through the unwritten rules. Remember about a decade ago when there was a huge HR in playoffs and the bat toss by Jose Bautista? It was a series a game 5 in best of 5 go ahead HR in 7th. Texas carried that over to the next year still mad he tossed his bat the way he did. The lack of personality and excitement of the players, because if you do show some, the other team would get butt hurt and either fight you or throw at you later, makes fans turn away. Kids were watching trash talking and funny post game pressers from NBA guys. The action there is constant no sitting around 2 min between pitches sometimes, which rules changed that now but back in day between mound visits, step offs, throw overs, there were at bats nothing really happened for several min. I agree they may have lost out on some the young guys, but gimmick rules will not draw them back, creating a fun exciting game to watch that is not slow paced and having players that are fun to listen to will help. Look at Savana Bananas. They draw huge crowds, like the globetrotters because they do fun things fans want to see. I am not saying go that far, but allow some fun in the players without the other side getting mad would help.
  4. Trov
    This rule should have died in the meeting room and not even talked about it outside of the meeting room. I get a need to increase young viewers and creating better tense moments in games can help that, but this is just too far. I like most of the rule changes over the years, and hope the next is robo umps, not some rule out of slow pitch softball "fun" tournament. It reminds of some of those were you could tab a player with the super hitter and he/she would be 4 runs when they scored, and teams could play 1 mulligan a game negating the last play. You would get 1 on both offense and defense. Give a big HR, mulligan. Have your best hitter not come through with bases loaded, mulligan. Maybe we should have guys run bases in reverse 1 inning, or make players hit opposite handed and field opposite handed for an inning too.
  5. Trov
    Part of issue with prospect ranking is the fluidness of it. Specifically, as some graduate from the list others get put on it, but that does not mean they are expected to be good or great MLB players, just means they are ranked at the time as the x number prospect as compared to others. An example, going into a season a guy my be prospect 120, and 20 guys on the list graduate off it. He gets moved up to 100, but that does not mean he got any better compared to his peers at that time, it just means guys above him played enough MLB games. Additionally, some years you have say the top 10 prospects all expected to be all-star type guys, where other years the top 10 may only be expected to platoon guys. When you compare prospects based on other guys that fit the term you limit who they are comparing them to. I make this argument in FA all the time. Just because someone is the best FA in a certain class does not mean they should get a record breaking deal, like that happened in the 2000's. If the next class has HOF guys, and current class has not even an all-star, then the top guy in a bad class should not get paid like a top guy in a HOF group of FA.
  6. Trov
    A couple of things. Rooker and Ortiz should not be compared other than both played for Twins and Twins let them go. I will make no further argument as it relates to that. The second thing is that Rooker had 1 good season at age 29. Unless he is second coming of Nelson Cruz, having huge production late into 30's, he will be a flash and be gone in a season or two. I bet if he was on a different team he would be putting up much worse numbers. If you look deeper, his biggest numbers came when games were a blow out. 4 runs or more difference. As the games got closer, his numbers where not nearly as great. He still put up some good numbers in those games but he was inflated when the games were not close. That is most likely he was facing lessor pitchers, who are just trying to get outs one way or other. His best inning by far was the 6th, most likely either facing a lower leverage pen guy, or a starter for 3rd time through. I am not trying to take anything away from him, but if he is facing top pen arms who are bearing down each time, his numbers will be much worse. Really, A's should shop the hell out of him and sell as high as you can on him.
  7. Trov
    Hays is intriguing to me. He would never had been non-tendered had he not had the kidney issue. If that is behind him I think a team will get him a on a make good 1 year deal and could show that he is an above average OF. Should we sign him, that I am on the fence on, but for the right price he would be worth a flier.
  8. Trov
    I agree I think he will be signing a 1 year deal. He has only been, for most of his career, an overall average hitter. His numbers never lined up with his hit profile, but at this point it is what it is. He is a good to great defender in RF, but aging. He is getting hurt more often. He either needs to chase the little money he can get left, or be willing to do a 1 year on a contending team as 4th OF or platoon type guy.
  9. Trov
    Johan is almost identical, if not slightly better numbers than Kofax. Johan actually had higher bWAR in less innings pitched. The main difference is Kofax retired at his peak and was considered as the best in the game at the time, with crazy good post season games. Johan peak was a little before his injuries really set in and he tried to make comebacks. Johan 100% should be in. He dominated in a time when pitching was really changing too. What hurts him the most is that he had short career due to injuries.
  10. Trov
    I get the point of this series, but I have always said a straight up WAR to WAR comparison is a terrible way to gage a trade. You also need to look at who was not traded and filled in for the traded player. For example, you have 2 guys that will play 2nd base, you cannot play both, so you decide to trade 1 for a player. Even if the guy you traded away did well, if the guy you kept did better and the guy you got did just fine, then it was a good trade. Now, if the guy you traded was amazing, and the guy you kept tanked, and the guy you got sucked, then it was a terrible trade.
  11. Trov
    Clearly his hype is on his possible stuff. Not much in his early numbers say he is a top guy. That is the thing with high school guys is it is all what they could grow into. Some become amazing, many fade away when they start facing the top guys and not just dominating a bunch of kids that will not even play in college. I hope he develops and can start commanding his pitches as he clearly has some swing and miss stuff, but it could also be since even he has no clue where the pitch is going the hitters have no clue and start swinging at anything.
  12. Trov
    I agree with just about all the tender non-tender things and how Twins will do it. In terms of Stewart no reason to give him long term deal when he literally has had just 27 good innings, for us and has not been healthy or very effective outside of that. Castro, I get the price is high overall, but he helps make a team like Twins make the moves they want to. Being he can play as least respectable defense at just about any position and has some value as a hitter, been a bit streaky, he is worth the money. When he is on the team they can pinch hit or run just about anyone knowing they can slide Castro over to that defense if the hitter or runner cannot. This became an issue when CC was out and Castro mainly played SS and he could not slid around. I would tender him and if you do not want to pay him the full amount shop him around, many teams would want to have someone like him around.
  13. Trov
    Brock Stewart will not be some savior to our pen. Yes, he had a great 27 innings in 2023. You know who had at least an effective 21 innings last year? Josh Staumont. Now some will say yeah, but Staumont FIP was not in line with his ERA. Okay, well despite Stewart's very low ERA in his 27 innings, you know what his FIP was? Ended 2.21 but peaked at 4.26, due to his limited innings it will move a lot. Point is, we cannot expect some dominate performance from Stewart even if he is healthy, simply because his track record is not there, and he could very well have just had a hot 27 innings. Also, what in his history suggests he can stay healthy? Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season at MLB level. He did pitch plenty as a starter when he was down in AAA but he was not effective as a starter at MLB level and then after 2019 his innings just have not been there. Maybe, just maybe he will bounce back and be effective, but counting on him will be a huge mistake.
  14. Trov
    I do not see anyway Luzardo for Larnach straight up would happen. If Miami was willing to do that, you jump at it. I doubt Miami would want to do that as well because they put themselves into full rebuild mode I feel like with trades they made last year. So why would they want to bring in a guy that is just above average hitter that will only have a couple more years of control for a good rotation pitcher? I am not keen on the system of Miami to see how close they feel their window is, and Lewis could move things because even if they are not ready he could get swapped for something.
  15. Trov
    Ichiro is a lock. I think Wagner will as well. There are a lot of do we look at whole career or peak? Andruw Jones peak is HOF, but he fell off cliff at 31. CC peak is HOF but similar starting early 30's he became average pitcher. King Felix was HOF bound but injuries full derailed him as well. To me if Santana is not in they should not be either. I think Beltran should get in. The rest should not get in.
  16. Trov
    He will not get voted in, but the vets committee some time might. The issue for him is he was never even considered the best player on his own team. He was an amazing defender, and really for what he did in the dome should give him a boost, willing to dive onto basically concreate covered with a thin piece of carpet, or jumping into a wall that has random hard posts or no support whatsoever, adding in the fact if you took the eye off the ball you would lose it in the ceiling. Because his offense was not elite just above average his defense would need to win the day. I do not think it will be enough. If he could have hit his second half his whole career he would be HOF bound. He may one day be a vet pick and people will question it as they have many others. An interesting comp to me is Andruw Jones who was HOF bound until age 31 where he fell off a cliff in production. Hunter actually increased his offense as he aged and was able to play until late 30's and still hit above average. Jones peak was no doubt HOF, but could not complete his career to do it. Hunter just had a long solid career, but still finished below Jones overall in a lot of numbers except for hits. Both were known for gold glove defense too.
  17. Trov
    I hate dealing withe Rays. They normally win every trade they do when they are selling. We did win the Ryan trade, but when they have a full offseason to trade and they are "selling" talent they normally win it in the end.
  18. Trov
    The decision to add or not is not based on if you think they will eventually become an MLB player or contribute there, but will a team be willing to take them from you having to use a 26 man roster spot. Rule 5 picks are commonly pitchers with high upside that normally do not have a 2nd pitch yet. They can be stashed at back of pen. Sounds like Adams is in that roll. The position players that were left off may be taken by a fully rebuilding team, A's or White Sox come to mind. They may take someone hoping that the player can grow at the MLB level. However, there is reason they were left off because the team does not think they are MLB ready nor will be for at least a full year or two. I have a feeling Rosario's shoulder is still bothering him. His K rate is up and power is down over the last year. Not a good combo for a hitter.
  19. Trov
    Being they have several slots I would see Raya, Olivar, Rosario for sure. I think they leave at least 1 spot if they want to take a rule 5 themselves. I would agree Rosario could get taken by A's or another bottom feeding team looking to hopefully get a kid a year or two early. When Badoo was first taken many were upset on here and he had a hot start in Detroit, but since he has not panned out very well. Personally, I am not high on Rosario. He has pop, but his K-Rate is way too high. Position players rarely get taken in rule 5 due to having to be on roster all year, only teams on a full rebuild can do it. Pitchers can be stashed an only pitch in mop up games all year, but hitters will need to play and not just in mop up spots.
  20. Trov
    This is common for most teams. It is because out of HS or College the SS and CF are normally the best player on the team. However, when you take all the best players on the teams and put them in 1 pool, only the best of the best will rise tot he top, and the others will filter down to other positions. SS can always shift to other positions, but other position players cannot normally shift to SS. Right now we have CC at SS who is better than anyone we have, so they have to find new positions at MLB level. However in a few years CC will most likely need to move off SS due to age, which will get maybe some like Culpepper a chance there.
  21. Trov
    Yes, he will need to really work on that. If he does not he will not be a viable player at MLB level when pitchers just get that much better with their off speed stuff.
  22. Trov
    I guess my thoughts are if the team feels putting him in rotation gives them the best chance to make playoffs in a 162 game season, then look into that. I do not know if he will be better at starting than any of the others on our list. Could some of them get moved to pen and do well? I fully get why Jax would want to, mostly the money. He is going to be 30 next year, birthday next week, and still will not be FA until his 32 season. A good year starting, some pen guys did that last year switching back to starters, could fetch him several more millions in his mid-30's. I would be willing to give him a shot, but not give him the roll. Let him fight it out over other guys and see who is better and can go through lineup over 2 times.
  23. Trov
    If he wants a smaller market media that is generally nicer on players MN is a place to go over the larger markets. My guess he still picks Dodgers because having guys from his country will be easier to transition. However, you never know. People make decision for many different reasons. Since it is not all about the money for him, being he will be capped by teams bonus pools, other reasons will play a major factor.
  24. Trov
    Paul Goldschmidt would be out the price range? I get he has a good history, but he is coming off a 1.3 bWAR season. He is 37. I doubt he gets a large deal. He will get offers, but only smaller offers in case he is cooked. He plays 1b, and not a great defender there, and he was below league average hitter last year. Not exactly someone that people will be throwing money at. Yes, he has had a great career, and could be a HOF, but he is coming off a very down year. He was not given a QO in fear he might accept it. Yes, that was from a salary dumping team, but he might be more of a platoon vet now and not a full time starter.
  25. Trov
    Maybe they would get those offers if not having the QO attached. However, as we have seen the middle of the road FA get hosed in offers because of the QO. Many teams will not even want to sign them because of how the QO will hit them. Which then limits the demand. Which then if only 1 or 2 teams are in many will not pump up the price against themselves. So then the players either take less than they normally would, or hold out. Many hold out, sign mid-season to a 1 year deal and most of the time hurt their value, sign the next year to a lessor deal. That is why I suggest the ones I did should sign, get the money, then hit FA next year again hoping to get a deal then. It is a huge risk from some to turn it down hoping teams are willing to give up possible draft picks, international signing money, or revenue sharing. That just makes the FA that more expensive to the overall development of the team. The picks are the biggest thing. Even if that particular pick would not pan out at MLB in the future, the bonus pool is hurt, and the players could be used for future trades. It has a huge effect down the road. That is part of the reason so many teams shy away from middle of road FA on shorter term deals when a QO are attached.
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