Trov

I was not specifically looking for a bunch of debate, but more so wanted to address what I see as fans that get upset with certain trades in history where we "bought" and missed, or not traded for "MLB" ready prospects when we sell. There is more to deciding what prospect to bring in or send out beyond just where they rank in lists. How many other guys do we have at similar position, how much room on 40 man do we have, and many others. I also responded to one comment about essentially not caring about losing players when you DFA them just to see if some guy not on the 40 man can cut it at MLB level. When we all know just having some success as a rookie does not mean long term success, we have 2 guys in AAA that proved that recently.

This is the exact kind of comment I was addressing in my post. You cannot just shuffle guys on and off the 40 man without having them move onto other teams. Generally, if a player is at AAA and not on the 40 man it is because they are not MLB qualify players, or they do not have to be on the 40 man because they still have time to be forced on it. The FO needs to decide is it worth cutting ties completely with a player that may not be great, but is a MLB level player, or do they force the 40 man move, start option years when a guys is too young. If they were exposed to the rule 5 draft or was DFA from either our 40 man or another 40 man roster, then there is a reason they are sitting at AAA and not on a MLB roster. They were exposed to every other team and could have been on a 40 man roster, but each team chose, for whatever reason, to pass on them. Calling for the FO to call up every hitter or pitcher from AAA that is putting up decent numbers, but not on 40 man will lead to removing of other guys on the 40 and most likely losing them to either another team or as a FA. Then if the guy you call up fails, then who do you replace them with? You cannot just bring the guy you let go back. Do you drop them off the 40 man and force more moves?

As we near the trade deadline, most fans seem to be in the, well we hardly have a chance so sell what you can now boat. I am in that general thought as well. However, there is one thing many fans do not think of when it comes to this, what are the timelines of the players you are brining back in and how does that work with roster construction. I know most on here know the rules, but many seem to not, or really do not care what the rules are even if they do know them. However, the rule is you can only have 40 people on your 40 man roster, unless they are on 60 day IL. After the season all players are removed from the IL and the team must get to the 40 members. If a player is not on the 40 man they cannot get called up to majors. After being the system so long, they need to be placed on 40 man or be exposed to the rule 5 draft. If they are on the 40 man and removed they are exposed to waivers where any team can take them and just pay them and occupy a 40 man spot. Why is this all important when thinking about trading players, either buying or selling? Well each year the team needs to decide who to protect on the 40 man and not lose to rule 5 draft. Some years it is an easy call for team, but others they really need to balance it risking losing players either on waivers or the rule 5. This has to be thought about when trading players away, or brining them in. Of course for every player traded off the 40 man frees up a spot, but every player they bring in on a 40 man, must be put on the 40 man. Also, if the player needs to be put on the 40 man after the year. If you bring in 5 guys that need to be added, you better be planning on doing that, or you may not keep them. The team currently has 43 guys on the 40 man, Keaschall, Lopez, and Tonkin are all on 60 day IL. Even if we make no moves that is 3 guys that need to be taken off. The Twins have several players set to be FA and be off the list. Vasquez, Paddack, Castro, Coulombe, France, Tonkin,(Bader has mutual option). That leaves plenty of room to add players, as there are plenty of guys that could get DFA and we would not miss them. However, just because you have space does not mean you can start taking on a ton of guys on other 40 man rosters, or ready to be added. This also gets to my second point, sometimes you trade away a prospect now in a buying move, simply because you do not expect to add them to 40 man later on. So you trade them before you risk losing for nothing. I think this was part of what led to the Spencer Steer and CES trade years ago. Both were guys that were going to need to take up space on 40 man or just risk losing for nothing after that year. Neither were high on the depth chart for the team. So even though the trade did not bring in big value, the team was not likely to put both on 40 man that year either. I am not saying you should just be willing to trade guys not on 40 man before they need to, or be afraid from brining in guys that will need to be on it, but it is something the fans should think about when the team trades for, or trades away certain players. The FO will not do a deep dive as to that kind of thinking, but you know they are looking at that as well.

I think this year the Twins could look to sell and buy for the future. They should not make any "rental" trades in my opinion, but they can look to sell off MLB talent to bring in guys that are MLB ready or at that level with years of control. They can use some of their system depth to shuffle guys around. We again have a ton of in field depth, with Martin is doing well in AAA to put name back in could be a 2nd base guy or OF. Keashall sure looks like a long time lock. Lewis and Lee both still have potential. Julien is getting his stroke back in AAA. Then we have Culpepper knocking on the door. We can look to pick and choose who to trade with plenty of depth left. OF also has guys knocking on the door with E-rod(if he can ever stay healthy), Jenkins, Gonzales are all guys that could push for time next year. Wallner still around too. I could see if there are teams selling players with more than 1 year of control be willing to trade to Twins, and we could flip some of current MLB guys for more depth.

Yeah we really missed out on the guys we traded away, who was that again? Oh that is right they have done nothing. Just because a trade did not work out did not mean we made a bad trade, both teams ended up with crap in that trade. Just as the writer pointed out the Mahle trade we did not get much of anything in return, but really did not lose much of anything either, other than maybe flipping them to a different team.

They should not be "buying" rental guys this year in my opinion. I am fine if you want to buy longer term options, but really we need to hope our internal options can be long term fits. I do not feel IF is a need with options of Lewis(hopefully getting out of a slump), Lee, Keashall, Maybe Culpepper next year, Julien as possible option. Catcher or DH could be a good add but again not as a rental, unless you are moving someone else to shuffle around.

I would not say no to having him come in as part of a trade, but I agree that you can get better return for even a rental lefty arm than a right handed first baseman that is weak defender. Maybe he can be a good hitter, but that is his only shot.

I have long said for small to mid-market teams this is the best way to stay relevant for years. Will you ever be "favored" to win? No. However, you will continue to be relevant and can make some moves if needed to get into the playoffs hopefully and get on a hot streak. If you constantly make win now moves you deplete your farm system, which is used to not only fill your own needs, but to be used to fill needs through trade. When the system is bare you run out of trades. Moving guys at peak value, assuming you have someone that can fill in, maybe not as good, but with not much regression helps keep that. I could see some moves of pen guys with control years for the right returns, or starting pitching. The question is not if the player is good, but how much better are they than their replacement you have, and what kind of return can you get. In terms of position players, Castro would be one of the guys to sell on, but being he is FA after this year his return will be less. Larnach or Wallner are both guys you can trade but neither are lighting the world on fire, and Wallner has several years of control. Both play a position that is easy to fill so they have less trade value as well. France is not just worth much and teams will not give up anything for him. The Vasquez could fetch something, if the Twins ate the money, if not most teams would not give up much. Jeffers has value, but who do we have to replace him, nothing really, so unless there is another trade to fill that hole it leaves us behind for next several years. Clemons you could maybe get a lottery ticket prospect due to how he is doing, but he lacks the track record for much value. Every other position player either will not net much of return, or you want to keep for now. However, I could see some shifting moves of moving some of our middle infield depth to get a catcher for the future, then trade Jeffers for some pitching, and trade the pen guys or a starter to supplement the farm.

I got no issue of Clemons over France, but neither are that amazing and would be fine with bring up someone else to fill in there as well. I do disagree with one statement that clutch hitting is "random". I get the thought on it, but I do believe there is such a thing as a clutch hitter and not a clutch hitter. Now for a guy like France who seems to only get hits in those situations may be a little more random. It in part could be their ability to hit off-speed pitches. I say this because many times in non-clutch you see more fastballs and pitches to get ahead in counts and try to get balls in play. However, when guys are are on base in high leverage situations, pitchers will mix in more pitches, try to keep them off balanced and try to hit more corners. Doing well in those at-bats can help you be clutch.

I say in every trade situation, if the team does not believe they can play a good second half to push into post season, as a wild card, then you should trade any FA that can get anything back of value. In terms of the guys with years of control that takes a little more thought.

I know nothing about any of these kids and history says 2 things, most of them will never make the majors, but also there will be a wow cannot believe he was picked that late. The Twins have got late inning pitchers to jump up prospect lists over the years. Enter Justin Mitrovich. My guess he adds to his fastball and jumps up the list next year similar to many other guys that were not top picks and we were like where did that come from.

The fact that Raya went 6 innings is huge. He has gone 6, 6, 5, and 5 over last 4 which is huge for him. Over the years they never let him go more than like 3. Debarge is a throw back type guy and I do not think he will fit in the Twins plans. We have a lot of depth at middle infield and unless he becomes a good utility type guy he will be either traded or sit in AAA most of the time. He has little power, and his average is not great. He does take some good walks, but that will have to be seen how it changes in upper leagues when they have better control. Yes, his speed will be an asset, but unless he is elite defender or elite hitter, having top speed is more of a playoff need. I could see him getting playoff runs if he sticks around to be late inning runner.

The only question is how much of his average is sustainable. The highlights make it looks like his hits are solid line drives, which is sustainable for high babip. He is not a guy that steals bases or hits for a ton of power, 7 HR so far this year, 5 last year, but he did get 18 two years ago, so the drop off to 5 was a huge concern. He will slot in as a corner OF, which already lowers his prospect status. However, if he can hit like he has shown every year but last year. It makes you wonder if the change in organizations messed with him. Hopefully he can keep it up and be talked out as a possible guy in next year or two.

MLB draft is always about the best available. You would rather have 5 SS that are fighting for at-bats and move to other positions, or be valuable trade chips, than no SS. Teams are always looking for viable MLB SS that can defend, worst case one does not make it, best case, both make it and one plays a different position. Other option is one gets traded for other needs, because teams will always be willing to take on a MLB SS.

TJ surgery for position players is not a big deal. Now, being connected to the Youngs could be an issue based on their history as players. However, they also had big talent too.

He may stick down there for rest of season to try to get AA into post season. Organizations like to get players into the post-season to get those extra games, but get the players to play in them too.

Twins love taking the power arms that have injury history with these picks. Normally, if they did not have the injury history they would be higher. Hopefully this one works outs.

You cannot have too many SS. He is expected to be able to stay there, but if his bat is not great, worst case, he should be a guy that can backup and be a utility guy. Unless he just takes off with the bat, he will be like a 3 to 4 year minor league guy and will be on timeline to fill in when CC and Lewis are done here.

Nice to see the guys in AA pushing. Culpepper may be forcing a move to AAA by end of season and be a guy for early call up next year at this rate. Gonzalez if he can keep on this path will be a huge win in the Polanco trade.

I doubt they do it this year, unless they 1 are fully set on selling at deadline, and 2 the deal is just too good to pass up. Because he has 2 years of control we can still move him in off-season or next year sometime if we feel the right deal comes along, assuming he is not willing to sign with us. My guess he will not sign with us, because he will be 31 at FA, and he will want that 1 big deal like 5 years and we will not do that, but a big market team will.

For a few years E-Rod was considered one of the untouchable players in the system, that you only trade if you can get a major player back. However, he may be stepping out of the untouchable prospect and into the piece to tangle for a decent trade now. First, he has continued to do the what if he can just be healthy guy. When healthy he has lit up the offense, but as pointed out by some he may struggle some at MLB level if he does not adjust. Do you trade him before he gets tested at MLB level? He has not lit up AAA and in part may be due to injury, or now that he is facing better pitching his issues at the plate are cropping up, or just still needing to fully adjust to the league. The other reason I bring this up is he clearly still has trade value as a prospect but Walker Jenkins is ahead of him on the OF list. Wallner still has years of control and has shown he can be counted on, even with his recent slump. Buck has stayed healthy and still under contract for a few years. That leaves no clear starting place moving forward for E-Rod. In addition, Gabriel Gonzalez is having a great year and can clearly slot into a corner OF spot. To get Keaschall's bat into the line up he could go into LF, he has played some CF in past. I am one that says corner outfielders hold little value unless they are elite hitters or defenders and above average at other. Mainly because they can get filled in by many options. This is where E-Rod being a possible CF does help his value still. With Buck in front and Jenkins being most likely the future CF and other guys being able to fill in the other spots there is clearly a chance he could be traded to net something. I want to make clear I am not saying they should, but with him not making the huge step this year, and others below him in current rankings rising up that can take over for him it makes it a possible good time to put him in a better trade package. That is how quickly a player who looked like an 'untouchable' becomes very much tradeable.

It is great to see Jenkins healthy and doing his thing. I could see him break camp next year if healthy and the team is pushing for that extra draft pick, but more likely they will hold him back to keep that extra year of control. His combo of speed and plate discipline will be huge. The big question will be how does he handle left handed pitchers. His first year in minors he did just fine in SSS. Second year was not so good, still only 61 PA, but hist OBP and Slugging was much lower than against righties. Still he looks like he will be taking over CF for Buck in the future, but with way Buck is playing not sure when that will be.

If they do they are waiving the white flag on this season. It would take some good pieces to get it done. With no clear replacement in our system right now, or next year making us have to dive into the FA or trade market ourselves. If you can get some pitching options that are clear higher upsides than what we have great, but just not sure there is a ton out there.

It is not about controlling him it is about the fact they do not need to add him yet. Once you add him then you need to keep him or lose him if you remove him, but if you wait until next year then you can put someone else on 40 man to protect from rule 5. Not sure what decisions need to be made on that right now, sure FO does. I am a fan of the kid and hope he can make it to majors and contribute, but I would get if they waited until next year to add him to 40 man. That is why I do not get all the fans that want every possible prospect called up asap, "to see what they can do" because if they cannot do it right away then you have a wasted 40 man roster spot if you did not need to use it. Then they get exposed to waivers. If they are truly a top prospect they get claimed at minimum by a team like the A's who can afford to stash them on 40 man while they lose.

No way should you look to move Lewis right now, unless a team blows you away with an offer, but with his value about as low as can be no way. No player is untouchable but bad moves trading guys at their low point in value. In terms of the corner OF they have little value. Wallner right now not hitting, so he has little value and Larnach has been fine, but not elite. Neither will net anything other than a middle pen guy that is just above a DFA pickup, or a low level lottery ticket prospect. Unless you are an elite hitter at corner OF, they are a dime a dozen. Even elite fielding corner guys are easy to replace. Yes, Wallner has shown elite power when he is on, so a team may take a flier on him, but knowing he will not net much, unless a team really thinks they can get him right again and willing to over pay for him. I get we have plenty of guys that can fill in, but that is my point, so do many other teams. Jax or Duran would be selling moves, not reshuffling moves. If the team thinks they can make the playoffs you do not trade elite pen guys because in the playoffs you need them more than any other time. You need to make sure you can lock down as many innings as you can. It is not just about the 9th, it is about knowing that if your starter can go 5 or 6 solid, you got guys that will lock down the end. If either get traded the team is saying, we are selling, unless you can get a guy in return that is close and can replace and add some prospects. However, why would a team have a guy that is nearly as good as what we are giving up in a trade?