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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I fully agree. The only reason to lock any of them up would be to get cost control set in. If either have crazy good seasons they could start to get high arb numbers, but outside of Lewis that is unlikely. Neither Ryan or Ober should want to give away a year or two of FA without huge payoff. Age 32 pitchers rarely get huge deals, and the ones that do are either on HOF path, or the deal is a huge problem. Jeffers will be at the point catcher offense fall off the cliff too. Lewis is the only one that could merit a large pay day at 30, but so far he is on the Buck path, not healthy enough to command huge deal and has not been consistent enough to know you can count on him year in and year out. His slump the end of the year really hurt his demand for a long term contract at this point.
  2. Trov
    I believe the Twins see Eeles and McCusker much like the rest of the league. Guys that have flaws and will need to vastly overcome their flaws and show there is no reason not to give them a shot. When you are undrafted out of independent ball you need to over perform at all levels to get a true shot. I feel Eeles did exactly that, but he is going to have to repeat this year to even get a sniff. He was never going to break camp with team as he is not, and does not need to be on 40 man roster any time soon. The only way he makes 40 man roster is when he makes his MLB debut. That could happen this year if he tears up AAA again, and our 40 man roster guys either get hurt or just perform so bad you need to make a change.
  3. Trov
    What is the point of being a "non-roster" invitee versus someone like Jenkins who will not be invited to camp but get games and time at MLB level camp? I get for vets they normally have opt-out clause if they do not make MLB team, but for others I am not understanding the real importance, being the team draws from minor league camp all the time. Is there a technical limit of players they can have at the MLB side of things?
  4. Trov
    McCusker has had 2 years now in organization after going undrafted and soon to be 27. He is up to AAA. If there are injuries and he gets passed by this year I would say he is not getting a chance, but he is not exactly someone that is saying call me up. He may have some pop, but he also struck out nearly 33% of the time. My guess that rate does not get better against MLB pitching. Severino has had many years in organization and greatly regressed last year. Keirsey is also now nearly 28, and put up some good numbers in AAA last year, but clearly FO does not feel he is MLB level with getting only 6 games despite having need in CF. In terms of Rosario, any team could have had him this year, they chose not to give him a shot this year. Down the road maybe a team will be willing to if he grows more, but right now the Twins are not alone in the lack of giving a shot.
  5. Trov
    First, Hunter nor Jones should be in hall in my opinion. Jones was well on his way until he fell off the cliff and could not hit at all after age 30. Hunter on the other hand actually started to be a better hitter later in his career. He was very good and should be a Twins Hall of Famer, but not baseball HOF. Nathan is in a odd situation because relief pitchers, and in his case closers have always been viewed as not HOF, save for a few. That has changed a bit in recent years, but I have always wondered how much value does a guy who pitches only 50 to 60 innings a year worth? However, should they be punished for being great at what they do and be asked to just do that? Santana should be in hall. He is compared to many current HOF the article mentions Sabathia, but I always point out Koufax as near identical comparison. Both had 12 seasons, derailed by injuries. Santana actually had higher career bWAR. The main difference is Koufax retired at his peak due to injuries, and Santana played out a few years after his peak that were affected due to injuries so the last voters saw of him was a shell of his peak. I expect Santana will get in from era vote as he was one of the best, of not the best, over a 5 year span and should have won 3 straight cy youngs but the 21 wins of Colon got it for him, not actually his other numbers.
  6. Trov
    My concern is he is getting to the age that his defense will start to drop off. He very well may have 1 more decent season in as a back up option, but his last couple of years he has not been elite on defense just about average. It feels like Margot all over and fans will be calling for Kiersey Jr. to get called up or depending on how he is hitting maybe even Jenkins when Buck gets hurt.
  7. Trov
    If they truly plan to play him full time at 1st that is a terrible plan for him. His big value is in his ability to move around the field when Rocco makes moves.
  8. Trov
    Planning him to be a "starter" at any position takes away his value. Where his value comes from is his ability to play many positions at decent defense. This allows the team to make moves throughout the game knowing they always have a guy like him to move around. If you anker him to any position you lose that value. Should he have some reps at first, only so that adds to positions he can play when needed.
  9. Trov
    Although I agree with that they can play someone other than Arenado, but my guess they wanted to trade him because of the money he makes, not because his production. His production to money is out of line. He still put up 2.5 bWAR, but when you are making over 20 mil and your team wants to cut payroll that is type of contract that will go. His bWAR was still 3rd on the team. It is unlikely they would have a guy that can still put up numbers sit on the bench while making 21 mil this year and 16 and 15 the next couple of years, not to mention the near 50 mil they owe him until he turns 50 years old. Although he may just be a money problem, that is a problem for mid payroll teams like Cards. Hard to just eat the money and play someone else, unless he becomes a negative player.
  10. Trov
    Although a fun thing to do, it really is just something for a baseball writer to do in the dead season. Good thing pitchers and catchers report in 2.5 weeks. Hopefully we will get some good stories on trades, not just by Twins, in coming weeks.
  11. Trov
    I fully agree with your points. It raises a red flag to me that a team pushing all in for last few years will trade away their best pitcher knowing they will need to cut even more payroll next year, and the year after. This might be their last season before a full on rebuild. However, there is a counter too it. Because they know the only way they can compete in the near future is young cheap talent now is the time to try and load up on that with the few assets they can trade. They know their ability to bring in large payroll is 0 for the next 5 plus years and may need to even cut. They are finally reaping what they sewed from all the big spending(like some Twins fans wanted Twins to do). I think the GM knows that because they have Machado, and many others on super expensive long term deals they will need to fill out rest of roster with guys in first 3 years of playing, and only way you win is if they are studs, and best way is to get as much as you can and hope a few stick.
  12. Trov
    If you give Martin regular reps in CF he has the athletic ability to be out there but he needs the reps to get the right reads and jumps. The hardest thing for CF is getting the right reads and jumps. If you cannot do that you will miss so many balls no matter how fast you are. The only way to do that is to get the reps. I would put him out for every BP, and every other chance you can get him real reps.
  13. Trov
    I have long said the biggest issue with the team is situational hitting. They were way too shifted to the 3 true outcome approach and undervalued singles, and hitting the ball the other way. Even just changing approach based on game situation, how you are being pitched ect. Too many analytic people look at the overall numbers and say they even out, but when you are looking at single games they do not. For example, in a three game series you win one game by 5 runs and lose the other two games by 1 run. You now have a run differential of plus 3 runs, but you lose the series. Piling on in games you win does not help you win the close games. I would watch so many hitters get great pitches to line the other way that they either took for strikes or tried to pull. Then I watch some of the best teams just over and over get base hits against us the opposite way. Power is needed in a line up, but 9 guys that are power guys will not do it. You need balance and guys that can take walks, get singles and run the bases well. You need guys that can hit HR, but understand when you just need a run in you know how to make sure you get ball in play and not strike out.
  14. Trov
    I get he is saying that to try to get Bregman to return, but unlikely to happen. Would be great to see him running around in LF.
  15. Trov
    Bat first, no defense sounds like a typical Falvey pick. If his bat can really be great we can deal with the terrible defense he is expected to produce. I am not going to get overly excited as Julien was in similar spot and even had great rookie year, now we are wondering if he should be DFA after a terrible second year.
  16. Trov
    I am personally not concerned about lack of moves, unlike some. The roster has the ability to be a good team, but it needs health and consistency. The biggest hole will be back up to Buck when he gets hurt. Last year the team had a complete collapse of offense late in the year, mainly brought on by injury and Lewis getting in worst slump of his career. Miranda, who helped carry team in June and early July had injury pop up in his back, and then was unplayable the rest of the year. Jeffers did what he does and is possible all-star, or unplayable as well. September he was unplayable. Castro went from all-star to unplayable as well. You add in a few bullpen blow ups at very bad timing and the team just fell off a cliff. Will they be favored to win the WS of course not, but they never will be, not unless a true salary cap gets put in. Point is, team has the possibility to do something if the players can be a little more consistent. Everyone seemed to crash all at same time in September.
  17. Trov
    I find it interesting that Padres are shopping Cease. They would clearly have no intention of resigning him in offseason. After giving up some prospects for 1 year, and they are still in a win now mentality, but more shifting to a Rays/Cleveland type of reloading from players set to walk in FA. If you could get him for Vasequez and one of our pre-arb arms it might be worth it on the 1 year rental. It would jump us to possibly top rotation in the division having the second best starter in the division. The biggest question is do you believe in his health this year? He is 29, pitched full seasons 4 years in a row, 5 if you count 2020 as a full season, being he did not miss any games. He may be in a possible injury year which is a big risk if you are dealing any of your current starters to get him.
  18. Trov
    I am less worried about his bat speed, although this info does point why age 30 to 31 is really when guys start to drop off a ton in production. I am more worried about his drop in run speed, which was a big reason why he was so good, when he could actually play.
  19. Trov
    I think Lewis or Lee will get 2nd and the other will get 3rd to break camp, barring just a terrible camp by Lee. Castro, if still on team, will do what he does and float around the field. Personally, I would love to see Eeles force some hands because he tears up AAA.
  20. Trov
    I understand the team wanting to trade Paddack, based on what he is making. However, I do not understand why many teams would be seeking him, or why we would be so interesting in keeping him if a decent teal comes along. Specifically, people talking about him giving us depth. What depth does he give us? We have needed depth the last couple years because we counted on him. In 3 years he has pitched a total of 115 innings. I do not see how we can expect him to pitch much. He has never been amazing pitcher. His rookie season he did well, but since then never was either healthy or pitched nearly as good. If we can get anything for him of much value take the deal. He does not give you depth, and he will most likely get hurt this year and even if he does not he is a 5th starter at best, but would be better suited as a pen arm at this point.
  21. Trov
    The problem with LH corner outfielders that are more bat than glove is that there are a ton available. Which makes their value in trade almost nil. Sure, we can want to trade one of them but what will either bring back is almost nothing. Neither have shown that they are more than an average player overall. Wallner most likely more upside due to his power, but he also strikes out a bit more. Larnach has been better on defense but less pop at the plate. Neither will fetch a ton at this point. Trade if you want because they are doubled up in our line up, but do not expect much in return.
  22. Trov
    I am a medium hall guy. I am not the small hall like many want, but I do think it should really mean something. That also being said I am a fan of the more compare to the era they played in and how did they compare to their counterparts at the time. I am a longevity guy too, unless it was a career ending injury that stop the player, however they need the peak numbers too. In terms of the performance enhancing drugs era I agree that if most were using, you compare them to their counter parts. I also agree that if the numbers were there before any use was really established then let them in. Personally, I do not know why Ichiro was not unanimous. Pitchers right now are so hard to determine. Take Hernandez for example. His peak was one of best pitcher in the game. Then he fell off the cliff like many pitchers do. Injuries started to set in, not career ending exactly but he never adapted to his loss in stuff. I would not be opposed to him being in, but if he gets in I still ask why Johan did not get in. He did not even get past first ballot, which is crazy in my mind. I do feel pitchers should show longevity because it showed how good they really were when they could adjust to their loss in stuff. Again, injuries that made them retire should be considered but there are many pitchers on a HOF path in 20's only to hit the cliff at 30 and never pitcher after 33 because they lost it completely. One reason giving a pitcher a long term deal at age 30 is a huge risk.
  23. Trov
    You will be hard pressed to find too many owners that will have no problem losing millions of dollars year in and year out, some will if they are making a ton from other businesses. From my understanding most owners hope to break even over the seasons if not a small profit, but few try to make huge profits from the year to year operations.
  24. Trov
    I am not worried about the Ishbas moving the team. The clearly are business people and will go where the best money is most likely. What concerns me more is that they are clear business people, similar to the Pholads were. They may be sports fans though and be happy with just trying to increase the value of the team, operate at a loss if it means helping the team win and just write if off against their other, clearly profitable businesses. They talk a good game for NBA, but the NBA is in a bit different place than MLB. One the CBA calls for split of revenue, so both sides have a real interest in increasing revenue, because as it increase both side get more. In MLB there is no split and it is a fight for the biggest piece of pie, which I feel sometimes leads to a smaller pie overall.
  25. Trov
    I personally will be watching Payton Eeles. I get he will be limited to most likely 2nd base or DH so limits his chances of making Twins. However, his ability to hit at minors cannot be ignored. If some of the other young guys start to struggle out the gate and Eeles continues the way the was last year I bet we see him at some point. I mean he had an OBP of .419 at AAA with OPS of .919. If he can be even close to that there should be a place in the line up. He also stole bases at a 80% success rate, with a total of 41 last year. Those numbers could fit nice in the lead off spot. To compare to an old friend Arraez, he never had OBP over 400 and had around 800 OPS in minors. He never stole bases either. Not saying he will get base hits like Arraez as he was better average in minors than Eeles showed last year, but Eeles should not be overlooked by people. I am rooting for him and hope he is given a legit chance to show something. It will be fun to see him in some spring games.
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