Trov

I think it is time to move Sabato up to AAA. I am not expecting anything long term from him but he is crushing AA no point in keeping him there any longer.

I would ask about Bregman, and Chapman. No one else is doing well enough to really do better than what we have, or the cost is too much to get/keep beyond this year. Duran maybe as he is not having nearly as good of year compared to last year, but sure Sox would point out last year and ask way more than what this year is doing. He also has years of control left so not just rental cost.

I would take Bregman, and think you could get him for the right price. I agree I expect he opts out, so now you are only paying him the rest of this year. Not sure how that works with the deferred money, but keep Sox on hook for that as part of agreement. The question is does Sox view this as a guy for 3 years or a rental. I would I would inquire as to the cost, but really, if they assume he opts out, as I think may will he is having a good year and will want longer term deal. So if the Sox are seeking rental deal return, I bet you can get him for E-Rod straight up, or some combo of pitching prospects. It would lock down that side of defense, pickup the offense, bring back the trash can buddies. You could then either DH Lewis if he is back hitting, or 2nd base. Lee if he is not hitting well can go back to AAA. I do not get how in your post you talk about Bregman being 31 signed through 2027 but then say he will absolutely op out after 2025(this season) or 2026(next season) and also talk about being on hook for 2.5 more years of payroll. If you are sure he will opt out, which he most likely will with the season he is having, then you are only on hook for the rest of this season. If you put in good enough prospect you can get Sox to foot some of that bill too.

No way is he traded, but really doubt he gets DFAed either. He still has 2.5 years on his 6 year deal. Making 23 mil. That is a lot of money to just throw away. I get the sunk costs and he may get the boot, but still dumping just under 60 mil. I remember there was a big push by some to sign Story, I was not one of them and really glad we let that one go. Since he signed with Boston he has barely played due to injuries and when he has just not been good.

Be happy with the stretch he gave you, you struck gold quickly, but give him is DFA papers let him move to St. Paul or opt for FA if he wants to. He is cooked.

Every MLB pitcher will miss full seasons due to injuries these days. You just need to hope they do not miss them while you are paying them big and that you can get the best out of them.

I am not one that likes to overvalue closers I am one that is all for trading them if you can get great value for them. However, I would not trade a pen guy midseason when you are competing for a playoff spot. Mainly because it will have a domino affect. You move Varland into 8th or 9th inning roll along with Jax, you need to lean on others in the 7th inning roll more. Also, your ability to use guess on multiple days in a row is hurt, then at times needing to rely on guys to step up more in the higher leverage roll because you burned your normal guys up days prior. In the playoffs having 3 or 4 guys you would be willing to use in the 9th is huge. It really shrinks the games, like the Royals did their WS a decade ago. Also, who during the year will give up a big enough offense piece just to add to their pen? Trading Duran in offseason would be better idea.

Just to make MLB at his height is rare. He is even shorter than Altuve. I am big on Eeles as an underdog guy to prove people wrong that someone of his height cannot play. His height will be little issue at 3B if he has the arm or quick enough for the range. I agree he will most likely be stuck at 2B. However, he has shown a great ability to get on base at all levels even after his surgery this year. I doubt he is dealt at the deadline for much. He is nearly 26, no real prospect thought. If he gets dealt it is either as an extra piece, or for a low end pen guy.

I am not giving up much to bring in a replacement for 3rd right now. Yes, Lewis has been terrible, and Lee has had ups and downs, but both are young and we have seen the great from Lewis, we need to hope he breaks out of his rut. So I would look at 1st base, but as pointed out the possible upgrades are just not great. I do not know what kind of clubhouse guy France is, but sometimes trying to upgrade just a little at a position can hurt the overall team too. Not saying that will be the case with France, but unless you know you have a clear upgrade may not be worth it.

I am happy to read about Culpepper. I hope he makes the jump to AA later this year. If he can make that jump smooth he will be either a valuable trade chip, or be a possible call up next year.

Jenkins was injured, just coming back now, and E-Rod was on the list as an honorable mention, so just outside the top 5.

He claims he was trying to hit the ball to right. You can see by the swing too that is most likely true. If true, maybe, just maybe, he is finally trying to have a plan at the plate. He always had the ability, but for most of his career he had the see ball hit ball mind set. When he would try to be coached he would get in his head too much and fail. However, he never seemed to have a plan at the plate. How often early in his career would he come up in big spot and swing at 3 sliders off the plate? He would do so because he was just hoping one would be a fastball that he could get around on. Then once in like 100 pitches he would get that fastball low and away buzzing the strike zone that he would either take or sometimes hit, and his mind was back to see they may throw a fastball, and back to missing sliders away again. If you have a plan that if he throws the fastball away I will drive it to right, you will be willing to wait a slit second longer and see it is a slider and take it. He does look good at the plate and more like he has a plan. The new hitting coach seems to be connecting to some guys like Larnach too of contact over power at times. Some may not like it, but to me as long as you run bases well, getting hits and balls in play are better than strike outs with the rare HR.

When Castro is hitting well he is the most important player on the team. His ability to be at least passible defender at just about every position, means you never have to worry about having a guy defending in a position they cannot. You can pinch hit an OF for an IF or vice versa because Castro can fill in the vacant spot. He is what allows for Rocco to do what he wants to do with his bench. Kody Clemons has been close, but he cannot do CF or SS but he can fill other spots. Not to same level defense. Twins love having flexible guys that can play multiple positions, at least having 1 or 2 each year.

Cleveland traded out of their rotation two years in a row when they were fighting for playoffs. Detroit did it last year too. You can certainly trade guess if you feel what you have to replace will be close to equal value, but can fill a different need. No Paddack will not fetch a ton, but too many people on here are thinking too short term about stuff. Too many want to ride Paddack out until he regresses back to the mean, or end of the season and throw QO on him, hoping he turns it down so he when he signs elsewhere you get something in return. The flip side is how much worse will Festa or SWR be over him at this point, even he has no regression back to his mean or injury, I doubt it is that much regression, he still falls into 4th on our staff. If that can net you a decent prospect even, we do not need to just fill in this year. Some would look at it as "selling" but it really is not, because you are saying we can get a good deal now, not give up much this year most likely, and restock for down the road. If there is someone for this year you think can help, most likely just another bench bat, then okay do that. Of course you do not just put Paddock on the trade block and take best deal, if other teams are not sold on him you then ride him out, but it is fully worth asking teams in great need of SP. I would much rather trade Paddock this year, then one of our guys with long control if you can get similar returns.

I would not go crazy over nearly 30 innings pitched. Pen guys can have great run only to fall to pieces. They are so volatile. We have seen our own team take scrap heap guys and have a good short run, and seen our own guys have great runs for periods on other teams. Take Cano for instance. We traded him for Lopez. Lopez fell apart for us, Cano had great 2 seasons but is terrible this year.

He has always been someone that strikes me as a guy who struggles in higher leverage situations. When the lead is generally big either way, more than a save situation, he tends to get outs, but when game is tight late and hitters seem to grind out at-bats more, he struggles. This was something LaTroy Hawkins had issues with, Hawkins still much better than Alcala, but Hawkins was amazing 8th inning guy, but you threw in the closer role he would struggle badly. I am not sure if it is Alcala stuff, or more his head when the outs are more important.

It is not completely based on the fact their is likely to be regression. Of course the other teams will see the same numbers. The question for the team taking him on will be when will the regression be? Will it be this season, will it be later on? Also, will they be able to sustain his numbers longer. No one is saying Paddack is going to win a Cy Young. However, there are teams that are struggling to fill out their rotation at this point due to injuries. No, Paddack will not bring back some huge piece, but teams like Tampa, and Cleveland have for years dealt established guys in their rotations middle of the year to supplement and reload system knowing they can get something, instead of nothing when they walk. I started the forum yesterday on this subject, love when that sparks a more in depth article that I do not have time to write. However, for myself it is not just about flipping him for something we really need right now, but knowing teams will take him on right now hoping his regression will not be soon, you can get something in return for your 4th starter. If we did not have Festa or SWR that could fill in I would not suggest this. However, being either one if not both could fill in and not be that much of a regression from what we expect from Paddack. Coming into the year he was fighting for the 5th spot.

I think what this article really highlights is his developing other pitches really allowed him to go back to using his fastball more and have it be more effective. The hitters need to at least respect his other pitches which allows him to use the fastball to great effectiveness. I think what also helps when he throws his fastball down not just up. It used to be if the ball was down it was always offspeed. He seems to mix up the location more.

Paddack generally only goes 5 innings as well. This year he has 3 starts more than 5.1 innings. Most starts are 5 innings. Not saying his replacement would be pitching as many innings but it is not like Paddack is some workhorse.

I have no names to through out because I have no clue what the other teams thought of value of Paddack right now is. If the Twins want to keep staying relevant they need to strike when value is highest. There may be very little value from other teams out there, and if there is not, then okay lets hold onto him and hope he has a career year and let him walk. However, there has to be a team out there willing to pay something of decent value.

After watching yesterdays game and watching Paddack have a great overall game, it got me thinking that his value has to be near the highest it has been since we traded for him. The Twins should look to find a team starved of pitching and willing to take a swing for him this year. Get your best deal possible and be happy. Some will say, but you cannot have too much pitching and he is having a good year, by far his best with the Twins and best since his rookie year. Keep in mind it is a contract year, most players have boost in those years. His numbers have been good, not cy young or anything. However, I think he is set for some great regression and if there is team willing to hope he is not we need to pounce. His record is not great, but that is due to a lack of run support, yesterday he got 0 runs while out there. He pitched 8 innings, would have been complete game 1-0 loss had we not tied it in 9th. The one run was a pitch out of the strike zone for a HR from a guy that right now is locked in hitting all pitches for HR it seems. However, Paddack K-rate is way down, 6.9 per 9. Walks at all time high, 2.8 per 9. His hits per 9 are way down from career average, and HR are just below career average. I have not done a deep dive into why his hits per 9 are so much lower, outside of his rookie year, he is a full 2 hits per 9 less from career average. This is not the real Paddack, but there has to be teams out there willing to jump at him for this year hoping this is an outlier season and ride him to the finish line as a good 4th or 5th guy. Right now the way he is pitching he slots into our 4th best pitcher. But is he that much better than Festa, SWR, or Matthews, most likely no. There has to be a team facing injuries or lack of back of rotation that they will give up value for Paddack based on his current run. I would be calling any team fighting for playoffs that need starter and see what they would give up for Paddack right now. Strike while his value is high.

I would look to move Paddock if you want offense. I agree, there is no such thing as a true pitching prospect, and as you pointed out they get hurt a lot. Which is exactly why you need as many arms as you can get. Paddock is gone after this year, so trade him for offense this year, and maybe too some minor league depth too. That is what Cleveland does. On back to back years they traded away one of their best pitchers in their rotation for depth and offense. They had the arms ready to come up from minors to not fully replace abut to fill in well enough. Then the guys that got traded away gave little value the next season to the teams that traded for them, and a couple of times their careers were basically over. I have said for years, unless you are a future HOF pitcher most top pitchers fall off a cliff around age 30. Some bounce back after injuries and learn how to pitch differently, but many just keep getting chances with teams hoping they can be something again.

Interesting part of the bill that no one has really talked about that I have seen, until here. I agree, not sure how taking money away from owners would cause them to want to reduce ticket prices. I think it they are really trying to do is decrease the contracts players are getting because owners will now have to tell the players well we are now paying more in taxes and the money we used to pay you cut against our taxes, so to make up for that we either need to raise ticket prices or pay you less. If that part of the bill is finalized by Senate all the next CBA's will be very interesting.

There are differences, rather slight, but they are not the same pitch. The splitter is normally held on laces on the finger tips. This will produce more spin with slightly more control. The fork ball is not held on the laces and will have much less spin, more similar to a knuckle ball. The screw ball is held more like a curve ball or slider, but you snap the arm the opposite way it is normally done, causing the break to opposite way a curve or slider normally would.

I fully agree, you get so much info and break it down to the littlest things sometimes you start overthinking everything. Should my foot be here, or there, should my hands be half an inch lower. Yes, there has always been the tried and true things, but if baseball has taught people anything over the years, there is no 100% right way to do something. We have seen crazy stances make great results, then we would see guys like Ripken Jr. coming up with new stance every year it would seem. We would hear the sage advice of find a good pitch to hit and not miss it. I remember for years Buck would be told a new way to hit and he would struggle then say I am going back to what worked for me my whole life. I have not heard much about changes he has made lately, but it seems like we adjust the young hitters saying if you do not fix this issue you will fail, but then you are asking to change something that is so ingrained in their mind at the smallest adjustments. This can be hard to do.