Trov

A couple of things. Rooker and Ortiz should not be compared other than both played for Twins and Twins let them go. I will make no further argument as it relates to that. The second thing is that Rooker had 1 good season at age 29. Unless he is second coming of Nelson Cruz, having huge production late into 30's, he will be a flash and be gone in a season or two. I bet if he was on a different team he would be putting up much worse numbers. If you look deeper, his biggest numbers came when games were a blow out. 4 runs or more difference. As the games got closer, his numbers where not nearly as great. He still put up some good numbers in those games but he was inflated when the games were not close. That is most likely he was facing lessor pitchers, who are just trying to get outs one way or other. His best inning by far was the 6th, most likely either facing a lower leverage pen guy, or a starter for 3rd time through. I am not trying to take anything away from him, but if he is facing top pen arms who are bearing down each time, his numbers will be much worse. Really, A's should shop the hell out of him and sell as high as you can on him.

Hays is intriguing to me. He would never had been non-tendered had he not had the kidney issue. If that is behind him I think a team will get him a on a make good 1 year deal and could show that he is an above average OF. Should we sign him, that I am on the fence on, but for the right price he would be worth a flier.

I agree I think he will be signing a 1 year deal. He has only been, for most of his career, an overall average hitter. His numbers never lined up with his hit profile, but at this point it is what it is. He is a good to great defender in RF, but aging. He is getting hurt more often. He either needs to chase the little money he can get left, or be willing to do a 1 year on a contending team as 4th OF or platoon type guy.

Johan is almost identical, if not slightly better numbers than Kofax. Johan actually had higher bWAR in less innings pitched. The main difference is Kofax retired at his peak and was considered as the best in the game at the time, with crazy good post season games. Johan peak was a little before his injuries really set in and he tried to make comebacks. Johan 100% should be in. He dominated in a time when pitching was really changing too. What hurts him the most is that he had short career due to injuries.

I get the point of this series, but I have always said a straight up WAR to WAR comparison is a terrible way to gage a trade. You also need to look at who was not traded and filled in for the traded player. For example, you have 2 guys that will play 2nd base, you cannot play both, so you decide to trade 1 for a player. Even if the guy you traded away did well, if the guy you kept did better and the guy you got did just fine, then it was a good trade. Now, if the guy you traded was amazing, and the guy you kept tanked, and the guy you got sucked, then it was a terrible trade.

Clearly his hype is on his possible stuff. Not much in his early numbers say he is a top guy. That is the thing with high school guys is it is all what they could grow into. Some become amazing, many fade away when they start facing the top guys and not just dominating a bunch of kids that will not even play in college. I hope he develops and can start commanding his pitches as he clearly has some swing and miss stuff, but it could also be since even he has no clue where the pitch is going the hitters have no clue and start swinging at anything.

I agree with just about all the tender non-tender things and how Twins will do it. In terms of Stewart no reason to give him long term deal when he literally has had just 27 good innings, for us and has not been healthy or very effective outside of that. Castro, I get the price is high overall, but he helps make a team like Twins make the moves they want to. Being he can play as least respectable defense at just about any position and has some value as a hitter, been a bit streaky, he is worth the money. When he is on the team they can pinch hit or run just about anyone knowing they can slide Castro over to that defense if the hitter or runner cannot. This became an issue when CC was out and Castro mainly played SS and he could not slid around. I would tender him and if you do not want to pay him the full amount shop him around, many teams would want to have someone like him around.

Brock Stewart will not be some savior to our pen. Yes, he had a great 27 innings in 2023. You know who had at least an effective 21 innings last year? Josh Staumont. Now some will say yeah, but Staumont FIP was not in line with his ERA. Okay, well despite Stewart's very low ERA in his 27 innings, you know what his FIP was? Ended 2.21 but peaked at 4.26, due to his limited innings it will move a lot. Point is, we cannot expect some dominate performance from Stewart even if he is healthy, simply because his track record is not there, and he could very well have just had a hot 27 innings. Also, what in his history suggests he can stay healthy? Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season at MLB level. He did pitch plenty as a starter when he was down in AAA but he was not effective as a starter at MLB level and then after 2019 his innings just have not been there. Maybe, just maybe he will bounce back and be effective, but counting on him will be a huge mistake.

I do not see anyway Luzardo for Larnach straight up would happen. If Miami was willing to do that, you jump at it. I doubt Miami would want to do that as well because they put themselves into full rebuild mode I feel like with trades they made last year. So why would they want to bring in a guy that is just above average hitter that will only have a couple more years of control for a good rotation pitcher? I am not keen on the system of Miami to see how close they feel their window is, and Lewis could move things because even if they are not ready he could get swapped for something.

Ichiro is a lock. I think Wagner will as well. There are a lot of do we look at whole career or peak? Andruw Jones peak is HOF, but he fell off cliff at 31. CC peak is HOF but similar starting early 30's he became average pitcher. King Felix was HOF bound but injuries full derailed him as well. To me if Santana is not in they should not be either. I think Beltran should get in. The rest should not get in.

He will not get voted in, but the vets committee some time might. The issue for him is he was never even considered the best player on his own team. He was an amazing defender, and really for what he did in the dome should give him a boost, willing to dive onto basically concreate covered with a thin piece of carpet, or jumping into a wall that has random hard posts or no support whatsoever, adding in the fact if you took the eye off the ball you would lose it in the ceiling. Because his offense was not elite just above average his defense would need to win the day. I do not think it will be enough. If he could have hit his second half his whole career he would be HOF bound. He may one day be a vet pick and people will question it as they have many others. An interesting comp to me is Andruw Jones who was HOF bound until age 31 where he fell off a cliff in production. Hunter actually increased his offense as he aged and was able to play until late 30's and still hit above average. Jones peak was no doubt HOF, but could not complete his career to do it. Hunter just had a long solid career, but still finished below Jones overall in a lot of numbers except for hits. Both were known for gold glove defense too.

I hate dealing withe Rays. They normally win every trade they do when they are selling. We did win the Ryan trade, but when they have a full offseason to trade and they are "selling" talent they normally win it in the end.

The decision to add or not is not based on if you think they will eventually become an MLB player or contribute there, but will a team be willing to take them from you having to use a 26 man roster spot. Rule 5 picks are commonly pitchers with high upside that normally do not have a 2nd pitch yet. They can be stashed at back of pen. Sounds like Adams is in that roll. The position players that were left off may be taken by a fully rebuilding team, A's or White Sox come to mind. They may take someone hoping that the player can grow at the MLB level. However, there is reason they were left off because the team does not think they are MLB ready nor will be for at least a full year or two. I have a feeling Rosario's shoulder is still bothering him. His K rate is up and power is down over the last year. Not a good combo for a hitter.

Being they have several slots I would see Raya, Olivar, Rosario for sure. I think they leave at least 1 spot if they want to take a rule 5 themselves. I would agree Rosario could get taken by A's or another bottom feeding team looking to hopefully get a kid a year or two early. When Badoo was first taken many were upset on here and he had a hot start in Detroit, but since he has not panned out very well. Personally, I am not high on Rosario. He has pop, but his K-Rate is way too high. Position players rarely get taken in rule 5 due to having to be on roster all year, only teams on a full rebuild can do it. Pitchers can be stashed an only pitch in mop up games all year, but hitters will need to play and not just in mop up spots.

This is common for most teams. It is because out of HS or College the SS and CF are normally the best player on the team. However, when you take all the best players on the teams and put them in 1 pool, only the best of the best will rise tot he top, and the others will filter down to other positions. SS can always shift to other positions, but other position players cannot normally shift to SS. Right now we have CC at SS who is better than anyone we have, so they have to find new positions at MLB level. However in a few years CC will most likely need to move off SS due to age, which will get maybe some like Culpepper a chance there.

Yes, he will need to really work on that. If he does not he will not be a viable player at MLB level when pitchers just get that much better with their off speed stuff.

I guess my thoughts are if the team feels putting him in rotation gives them the best chance to make playoffs in a 162 game season, then look into that. I do not know if he will be better at starting than any of the others on our list. Could some of them get moved to pen and do well? I fully get why Jax would want to, mostly the money. He is going to be 30 next year, birthday next week, and still will not be FA until his 32 season. A good year starting, some pen guys did that last year switching back to starters, could fetch him several more millions in his mid-30's. I would be willing to give him a shot, but not give him the roll. Let him fight it out over other guys and see who is better and can go through lineup over 2 times.

If he wants a smaller market media that is generally nicer on players MN is a place to go over the larger markets. My guess he still picks Dodgers because having guys from his country will be easier to transition. However, you never know. People make decision for many different reasons. Since it is not all about the money for him, being he will be capped by teams bonus pools, other reasons will play a major factor.

Paul Goldschmidt would be out the price range? I get he has a good history, but he is coming off a 1.3 bWAR season. He is 37. I doubt he gets a large deal. He will get offers, but only smaller offers in case he is cooked. He plays 1b, and not a great defender there, and he was below league average hitter last year. Not exactly someone that people will be throwing money at. Yes, he has had a great career, and could be a HOF, but he is coming off a very down year. He was not given a QO in fear he might accept it. Yes, that was from a salary dumping team, but he might be more of a platoon vet now and not a full time starter.

Maybe they would get those offers if not having the QO attached. However, as we have seen the middle of the road FA get hosed in offers because of the QO. Many teams will not even want to sign them because of how the QO will hit them. Which then limits the demand. Which then if only 1 or 2 teams are in many will not pump up the price against themselves. So then the players either take less than they normally would, or hold out. Many hold out, sign mid-season to a 1 year deal and most of the time hurt their value, sign the next year to a lessor deal. That is why I suggest the ones I did should sign, get the money, then hit FA next year again hoping to get a deal then. It is a huge risk from some to turn it down hoping teams are willing to give up possible draft picks, international signing money, or revenue sharing. That just makes the FA that more expensive to the overall development of the team. The picks are the biggest thing. Even if that particular pick would not pan out at MLB in the future, the bonus pool is hurt, and the players could be used for future trades. It has a huge effect down the road. That is part of the reason so many teams shy away from middle of road FA on shorter term deals when a QO are attached.

The multi year versus single year will play into it. Which is why some will and should turn it down for that reason. However, many I pointed out are at an age a 3 to 5 year deal is not likely, and most teams will only look for a 1 to 2 year deal. Some of the guys are 33 to 34 years old and had peak years. Will they get a 3 year deal worth say 40 mil, doubtful. Maybe, but doubtful. They may get like a 2 year 25 to 30, but is that much better then a 21 plus what you can get a second year, maybe not. We have seen too many players hoping on getting that multi year deal only to not get it and then sign mid-season and have come back the next year signing a 1 year deal on a prove it contract.

The QO became a killer for the middle of the road FA guys. Early on a lot of fringe guys were getting it and everyone turned it down. However, the players started to learn unless you are a superstar teams were not too keen on giving up draft picks, bonus pool money, or other perks like revenue sharing, depending on where you all fall in with things. Players finally started to accept the offers when they realized turning it down would affect them long term.

I agree they both most likely will turn it down, but I think they will both be in for rude awakening when offers start coming in. As pointed out many teams are cutting payroll thanks to TV money dropping next year. This means even less money to go around. Alonso is coming off a down year, not a terrible down year but a guy who is 30 and trending down and limited to 1B is not commanding a ton of money these days. Manaea has similar issue that he is aging and never been more than a number 2 pitcher. Michael Wacha similar age, better career numbers could not top, or did not top 21 mil a year in his career and did not have QO tied to him. The issue is the players that turn down the QO try to use it as a starting point 1 year 21 mil. However, teams say yeah you rejected that and we did not offer it. Also, we will have to give up stuff so it costs our team more than 21 mil and need to factor that into our decision. Additionally, some players then seek like 3 to 5 year deals which a guy like Manea will not get, maybe a 3 but doubt that even based on his age. With pitchers you need to also worry about injuries later in career and losing whole years.

The qualifying offers were made. I personally saw some surprising names on the list that I think would be dumb to not sign it. The list is: Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Luis Severino, Juan Soto, Christian Walker. Keep in mind the QO is 21 mil, and many players try to use that as the starting point for pay. There are several no brainers to turn it down because they will clearly get a bigger deal. Soto, Burns, Bregman, Fried to me are the only locks to turn down the offer. I expect many more to turn it down, but as we have seen getting strapped with the QO tag can actually hurt you in FA. Keep in Mind Michael Wacha signed a 3 year deal with average 17 mil a year, min. Adames will most likely turn it down he is still under 30, plays SS and has been good hitter his whole career. However, his defense took a hit last year, and will his bat play at 3rd or 2nd should the need to move come up? I expect he to turn it down and get a deal without much issue. Alonso, he is a big question as to turning it down, or at least should think about taking the offer. He is going to be 30, he is not a good defender at 1st and coming off his worst offensive year. I expect he will turn it down hoping to get multi year deal, but I think he will have a hard time finding a team willing to give him a deal he wants with the QO tag attached. He should sign and prove he still can be a big bopper. Hernandez will most likely turn it down as well. However, I think he should take it. He is 32, not likely to get more than a 2 to 3 year deal at best in normal FA year. He has always been good hitter, and coming off of career year, but will that carry into his mid to late 30's doubtful. His defense has never been great. My guess the QO tag will make teams shy away from him. Manaea should take it, and he just might. He will be 33 next year. He is not likely to get a long term deal as he has never been more than a solid 2 or 3 level starter. Would a team be willing to give him even 1 year 21 mil without QO attached? I doubt it. If he turns it down, I expect he will be the type that signs very late, even after the draft to not have any impact from the QO. Martinez should take it in a heart beat. I was shocked to see him on the list. He is 34, coming off career year and mostly was a pen guy. He started only 16 games last year. He has been good since coming back to the states, but a 34 year old getting 21 mil for even 1 year when he had a career year is not likely. If he turns it down he will not get signed to anything close to 21 mil for 1 year. Pivetta also should take it and be very happy he got it. He will be 32, his profiles as a number 3 type starter, but looking to get paid like a number 1. He has never been a number 1 type guy. He will in no way match 21 mil for 1 year. Sign it and hope to get a 2 year deal next year. Santander is a bit closer call. I think he will turn it down but it will hurt his signabilty as well. He is a solid hitter coming off career power year, he is a big risk of dropping off as he has always been high strike out guy. Will he age well, maybe. I just think teams will shy away. Severino is a very interesting case. He will most likely turn it down, and I think he will get a deal, but he is a guy that had great history, then injuries derailed things, but had a good bounce back year. He would be a solid number 2 guy, and if can stay healthy could be a number 1 type if needed. Walker should sign it too. He is going to be 34, had a great couple of years at age 31 and 32. Last year was good, but trending down. Not too many teams would be willing to give too long of a deal for someone in his shoes, and add in the QO he will be hard pressed to get much more than that. I bet a couple might take it, but most turn it down. However, we have seen many backfire over the years when they do turn it down. They get much less than what they turned down, or get what they turned down, but sign for second half the season, giving up half the money and then have a poor season only to sign a prove it deal the next year. Really wasting 1 year of career earnings. So many of the pitchers line up close to Wacha, if not worse than him, and he did not even get 21 for 1 year. Yeah he got 51 over 3, but that is without QO tag that hurts a FA. Other than the no brainers I listed, I think the pitchers will take a huge risk to turn it down.

If the option was Castro or Donovan, everything being equal, you make a sound argument as to why Donovan or Castro. However, they are not equal. Mainly, we have Castro and can keep him for the money spent, but to get Donovan we would need to trade for him, giving up prospects. Now, if we trade for him first, maybe we can save on some of the prospects we send out, but then when we shop Castro we are clearly looking to sell, and will not get as good of a return most likely. If we trade Castro first, maybe we get better prospects in return but then will be a position of having to give up more to get Donovan. Point is, to shuffle the two around we will need to shuffle prospects around as well, which may not work out well long term. This is basically, make moves to make moves.