Trov

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star. I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year. After 30 they tend to trend down. This year he had crazy hot April, an above average July, and all-star level September, but every other month was well below replacement level. He may have some hot streaks, but a rising star he is not, nor will he. He is too old to be a rising star, at best he is a guy that can get on a hot streak, but I bet there is about 20 to 25 teams that would not even have him on their 40 man. The Twins included.

The youth got you to the post season, and sadly they have not stepped up in the post season. Lewis did in first round, but Astros clearly have a plan right now for him, and that is throw outside with pitches moving off the zone. I have not had a chance to watch every at bat, because of work, but we knew if the kids struggled we would be in trouble. Still got one more loss this round, hopefully we can rally today put on a good showing and return to Houston Friday. The amount of men left on base has been crazy and the amount of double plays. Hopefully, the guys can figure out what Houston's plan for them have been and make the adjustments.

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format. Personally, I find the time off for the higher seeds can hurt them. Baseball has always been about who is hot, and taking time off can hurt that. One team I point at a ton for this is the 2007 Rockies. No one expected them to even make the playoffs, until they went crazy run in September going 20-8 with a win in October as well. They were hot as hot could be. They swept the division round, then the championship round. The Red Sox went to 7 game in the ALCS and Rockies just sat and waited. The Red Sox won the last 3 games of the ALCS coming back from down 3-1 to get into the series and quickly swept the Rockies. The Rockies clearly lost the momentum they had with the long time off and Red Sox where on a hot streak. This is similar to the wild card round. The teams with the bye sit for 5 days after end of season, where the winner of the wild card rounds had at least 2 tense games.

If Buck could play CF and we could count on him playing each game, he would be an upgrade in the OF, however, clearly he cannot. He could get slotted in the 9 hole, play top defense and we hope for best on offense, similar to Taylor. He could be a difference maker at the plate at any time, but you cannot count him to be consistent right now.

When you look at the 81 trades, most are not even remembered because very minor. I find there was more good trades versus bad trades. You can judge some trades for what we ultimately got in return versus what we gave up, but at the time they may have been good trades, just injures did not work out. I think the smaller trades of Farmer and Taylor this year was huge, and did not give up much to get. I can understand why people do not like some of the trades, and the original post talk about lack of direction. What I find about some of the trades is they did seem to be moves just to make moves, more so early on. I would disagree that the Maeda trade was bad. Yes, he missed a full year and half basically, but he helped in 2020 and 2023 a lot. If you look just at innings pitched, sure they are not far from each other, but Madea was starter innings and Gratoral was pen innings. Who would have started for Maeda when he was healthy? Looking at other moves made or players kept is important just as much as who was sent away. The Mahle trade, turned out to be terrible, but the guys we sent away were far down our depth chart and we would have wanted to move them eventually anyways to open up 40 man roster space.

With series tied 1-1 we will have a game 4. I believe Dusty will decide who starts game 4 depending on outcome of game 3. If the Twins win game 3, I bet Dusty sends Verlander out for game 4 on short rest, then if needed game 5 Valdez on full rest. If Twins lose game 3, I bet he runs J.P. France out for game 4, then Verlander, if needed on full rest for game 5, with Valdez the early pen move if Verlander struggles at all. I believe this because if you are in an elimination game, Dusty will go with what he thinks is his best chance to win, but if he has a game in hand he will want to rest Verlander, to make sure he has full rest, and then he both his best pitchers for game 5 if needed. Also, it set up his starters for next round if Astros can end it in 4 without using Verlander again, but if they could get knocked out you need your best, even on short rest. This shows how big game 3 is for Twins. If we can win it will have Astros on heels, and we seen how some managers will, at times, overmanage in elimination games.

I heard on a broadcast the other day that we actually have handled lefties well over the last couple months. Yesterdays game showed the platoon can be huge. Farmer is only on the team at this point to hit lefties and be defense replacement if needed. He hit a 2 run HR. Salano is there to hit lefties, he got a great base hit in his third at bat. Castro, actually hits rights better, but he get the start over the Wallner because of the lefty and he gets a big hit in front of Farmers HR. 2 wins of the 3 in the post season has been because of what we did against left handed guys.

I am all for this. He makes so much sense over Ryan. I talk about how Ryan should be game 3 in wild card round because of how well he pitched at home compared to the road. Ober has earned this and I was worried about Ryan on road in a hitter park. Not that Ober will not give up a HR, but my guess they will have a quick hook for him and go to Maeda if need be.

One thing I would add to Lewis also took a walk in game 2 that led to Berrios being taken out. If he does not draw that walk, and it was an 8 pitch walk, so was a good at bat with ball 1 and 4 being close pitches. Had he not walked I bet Berrios stays in there. He may not have had a hit in game 2, but his good 2nd time up helped as well.

For me the biggest stat that should stick out to people is the under .500 against teams over .500 for Houston. That to me tells a big story that they got by beating up on lessor talent but struggled more when facing higher talent. They are still clearly a good team, but agree they are not the juggernaut they looked like last year.

I agree with the first 4 guys listed in the lineup you state, but Abreu has not been the guy from the Sox. Sure, at any time he could have a stretch but really their line up is top heavy. Pena had one run in playoffs as a rookie, this year he is not doing as well. He hit 22 HR regular season in less at bats than this year, where he has 10. Yes, they are more playoff tested as a team, but it is not like you can just flip a switch because it is playoff time and perform better than you had all season. You may have better outcomes, but looking at how people performed all year does carry into playoffs some. We were terrible at hitting lefties, but over last couple months we actually did pretty well against them overall. I agree Valdez is one of the best in the game, but over last couple months we have been one of better teams against lefties. Also, it was a lefty we did all the damage game 2. Valdez does scare me the most though. Last year, Verlander was clear Cy Young winner, but he had 2 good starts and 2 bad starts. His first start in playoffs, after the bye, he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Then second game he was dominate. Third game he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. 4th game he was good, 1 run 5 innings but walked 4. Point is, he clearly can have bad starts in post season. In 2019, out of 6 starts only 2 were quality starts. The argument that our team lacks experience in playoffs so we are at disadvantage or cannot expect much is just poor argument. Every player has to have their first games. They may be good they may be bad. Lewis starts off on fire in 1 game, but game 2 he did nothing really, outside a walk that pulled Berrios.

The Twins would have high incentive to buy out FA years, Lewis does not. Lewis believes in himself, and if he wants to max his money, he will not want to sign an extension buying out FA years unless it is at a value he is hoping to demand, that will be around like 30 mil or more. Does the team want to commit to that now, I doubt it. If I am advising Lewis, I tell him to play out his years and hope to max arb years then get a big deal when he is FA because it will be his only one. If the team offers enough then sure, but you normally only do these early deals in a way to get team friendly values later in contract.

I have said that Toronto played like the Twins in the past in playoffs had. Toronto made several mistakes on the bases ending possible rallies. In the past the Twins have done many of the mistakes Toronto made. We were also saved by the near misses. Chapman specifically had an at bat each game late in game down 2 with a chance to tie or take lead. In game one he was about 3 feet short of a game tying ball off the wall. In game 2 he was 1 foot from hitting tying ground rule double, only to then hit inning ending double play. A lot broke right for the Twins, but you need that in short series.

I need to say I was 100% wrong on Castro. I did not want him to make the team out of camp. I did not see him as a guy that would do much on the team and he was just a place holder for a period of time. Boy was I wrong. I think he should be considered for MVP of the team. Not because his WAR is great, bWAR of 2.6, which is good but not team leading. however, he made the team work for the year. The FO loves this kind of player. The guy that can play many positions, and can defend them well enough. Can hold own hitting wise, and in Castro case a switch hitter so can pinch hit, pinch run, or defense replacement without worry of being insta out later on. I personally feel without Castro we are not nearly as good of a team. We may not have even made playoffs with the other injuries we delt with, he could always come in to cover for someone. He has clearly earned a spot for next few years, unless he regresses. This is by far his best year, career bWAR of 3. His OPS is 100 points higher than his last two seasons of full time ball. It may be a break out year, or an outlier year, but it came at a good time for us.

I need to point out a few things. First, I do like the FO and what they have done, but the article says Varland, Stewart, and Paddock helped in first round. Paddock did not throw a pitch. Varland got 2 outs but 1 was a jumping catch, most likely not needed to jump, at the wall and the other was a long battle strike out. Stewart was dominate in his 1 inning, but the other two did not do a ton to help. Varland was more lucky than good. Hopefully, he will do better against Houston. In addition, the offense turn around in second half for a few reasons, and it was not because the team stuck with the plan. It was we benched Gallo, for most part, until his injury. Buck was put in IL, Lewis was back and healthy, Wallner and Julien got consistent starts. Kepler, CC, and Salano started to hit. Those were the main things that went right second half, was that 2 of our normal starters out of line up, and three rookies were given chance to prove what they could do. Kepler started hitting like he never has. So they did stick with players in the organization they had, and did not fire anyone, but they did not stick with the team they had at the beginning of the year, or even the highest paid players. They made plenty of changes, just nothing major.

I was too young to know the 87 play, only was 3. However, the pickoff yesterday was clearly a huge shift. It ended the inning and took so much wind out of the sail of Toronto. It was something past Twins teams would have had happen to them. Then you start thinking about how things will go wrong.

Okay people are blowing the play in game way out of what it was. First, to say "extraordinary display of baseball wit and incredible arm strength." Is just not accurate. The arm strength part yes, and the throw was perfect in the situation. Not taking away from that. However, people are acting like no other player would have done what CC did. Watch the play and you will see him just standing there until the ball rolls past Polo. Okay so he was being a little lazy expecting his teammate to make a play. Personally, I think CC should have been running to back up the play and or to cover 3rd, but he just stands there. Then when he see the ball rolling in the middle of no where, and he is the closest guy to it, I would not say it was extraordinary baseball wit to figure out he should go get it. I mean do we say how amazing a play someone makes when they grab the ball and are closest to it? Really, the fact that he took no effort to back up the play, like we are taught in little league, the runner does not even try to go home. Maybe CC thought of that, like he was playing some game of dare the runner he will get there first, but my guess he just assumed Polo would stop the ball, then when it did not happen he did what any player would have done and go get it, and then his arm and perfect throw makes the good play. But please people stop acting like no other player would have had the mind to go grab a ball that is just rolling and he is closest to get it. If he would have just stood there and watched it would have been upset he never moved and how dumb of a play it was. All that being said, we do not win the series without him, and his leadership has shown. He telling Gray that they could do the pickup, and he calling it himself shows he does have a good mind for what to do and when.

You hit many of the things I generally try to point out. The Mahle trade ended up bad, but Steer and CES would have been in minors most of year for us, and taking room on 40 man most likely. No move can be looked in a vacuum, but what other moves were made. Many were upset we traded Garver for what we did, but then we flipped that to dump Donaldson so we could sign CC. The FO trusted certain people to help carry us along. We traded for Lopez because we trusted Lewis would get healthy and possibly Julien would be ready, both pretty much came true. Some moves will fail terribly, like Mahle, and Dyson type trades, and some high draft picks will fail. However, every FO has these issues. As long as the team is building overall in a positive direction. I mean we could be the White Sox who botched a talented group of young guys. Not only did we win this year, but I think we will win the division for years to come because we have depth still in minors ready to come up in next few years, assuming positive growth.

Nothing has a bigger debate on here than the FO and the job they are doing. They came in after the 2016 season, ending a long run of the Terry Ryan FO, even with the short stint Ryan was gone it was still his guys running the show. This created a huge shift in how the organization worked, as Terry Ryan was as old school as you could get. I think Clint Eastwood shadowed him in preparing for "Trouble with the Curve". Falvey was hired in part because he was known to be the guy to help Cleveland build their pitching pipeline. Many fans wanted a quick turn around after several terrible years and magic would just happen, forgetting it takes years to change things up normally. Having most guys from the past teams there was the surprising 2017 team, followed by a let down in 2018. Then the surging bomba squad 2019, built in part of guys brought in by Falvene FO. Pitching was still terrible and no pipeline was in sight. Most guys were not developing and no big names were see, outside of Gratoral, but questions about his ability to start were out there. 2020 we trade him to get Maeda, who is Cy young runner up and leads team to playoffs. We then make a trade for Sonny Gray. Many different trades and signings including CC, twice, shocking the baseball world. There are still a few guys from before 2017 season on the roster, and some came from the organization before hand too. Mainly Buck, Kepler, Polanco, and AK are from the old FO. AK was drafted in 2016. Of course this is natural that over 6 years there will be turn over, but all the major contributors were guys from this FO. The whole starting rotation was either traded for in last couple of years, or drafted by FO. The main pen guys, outside of Griffin Jax, drafted 2016, were either drafted, or traded for by FO. The team was built slowly, but has a solid core for hopefully years to come. We have to have debates on where to play guys like Lewis because others are knocking on the door. Who do we put out there as starter, not because they are terrible, but because five guys have shown an ability to pitch in post season. We have pen that despite many calling to have gutted farm system to upgrade at deadline has been great in 2 games so far. There are some outside Twins fans that think this is a good team for the playoffs and it is mostly because the Falvene FO has brought in the right guys. Yes, it took some years, and they got many things wrong, but so does every FO.

I agreed with the Timberwolves owner on the broadcast that it was terrible decision to pull Berrios and you could tell the manager was going to do the moment he felt it was the best call. However, Berrios was dealing. His slurve was nasty, and all three hits were weak contact hits nothing was being hit hard, outside the line drive of Wallner for an out. However, Berrios has been known to give up hard contact quickly and is a high HR guy. We do not know if the move was the wrong move just because the guy that came in gave up the lead, for all we know Kepler and/or AK get big hits and then the manager gets second guessed for not bringing the lefty sooner. I still feel Toronto should have left Berrios out there, but happy we got the win. I do not worry Rocco will pull either Lopez or Gray too early, but I do worry he might Ryan if Ryan is doing fine. However, our pen sure looks like it is going well.

We will be seeing our right handed line up game one. Wallner, Julien(maybe), and AK will be on bench to start game one. Julien has been hitting more against lefties and was at least drawing walks against them, but with the starter being a lefty I expect he will start on bench. We should put up more runs overall, but we are also more likely to allow more runs. Ryan scares me on the road for game 1. I personally would start Maeda game one, and use Ryan as possible pen option, just because Maeda has been much better on road. I am not going to be upset with Ryan game 1, then slot for game 4 if needed at home though.

Walker JenkinsBrooks LeeEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaAustin MartinCharlee SotoDavid FestaTanner SchobelBrandon WinokurLuke KeaschallSimeon Woods RichardsonConnor PrielippYasser MercedesKala'i RosarioYunior SeverinoJordan BalazovicJose RodriguezDanny De AndradeCory LewisPierson Ohl I moved Jenkins up to top because I think he has higher upside. Lee is great and I expect good things, but he is older and I see less upside. Really it was close. I moved Martin up a bit because he has shown a resurgence after having health. He was a top guy years ago and dropped in part due to injuries and poor production, but think he has regained some of that. I moved up SWR based on his second half numbers, and prior status. The first half was terrible, but he bounced back a bit and looking like where he was last year. I moved him above Prielipp because he has done nothing so far due to injuries. I know he was hyped coming out of college, but even that is really based on projection. He has pitched a total of about 35 innings in 3 years across college and pro ball. I get 2020 was a good short 4 games for him, but he needs to show me something. I also took Headrick and Cantero off for Lewis and Ohl. Headrick has had plenty of MLB time and look not very good. Cantero similar to Prielipp needs to actually pitch. Lewis and Ohl to me has a path similar to Varland and Ober ahead of them. Two overlook college arms that will be fine and should have some MLB level. Each has done well at lower levels, but neither is thought to have great stuff and so higher levels could slow them down. However Lewis has

The problem with Royce and contract is we will have him under control until he is age 30. Which means he will be on downside of career. If we sign him now it will be to buy out some FA years, but then it will delay his FA into 30, which will decrease his chance of a big contract into his later 30's, like others have got. So really, unless we want to buy out his cheaper years and give him like a 10 year or more contract, which I doubt we will do, it makes little sense for him. Yes, he has been great, but he also has been injury prone, even outside of the ACL injuries he missed time 2 times this year for soft muscle issues, not even the same muscle as well. That is a concern for me to sign a guy now. If we are looking for at a 8 year deal as suggested, it makes little sense for him to sign that now, if he believes in himself, because he will be buying out too much FA years. He may want to sign a 5 or 6 year deal to lock himself in and protect against injuries down the road, but more than that will decrease his max earning potential. With that the case, the team will not want to sign him to a 5 or 6 year, unless it is very team friendly because we still have 2 years of very cheap, 3 years of more, but if he is injured parts of those years, they will not be crazy high. The team has a lot more risk at this point in my opinion.

There is some logic to the swap, but I agree we need to just go for win game 2. We have the 1 game in hand, run your best guy out there. Do not worry about round 2, until you know you are there.

It was announced Berrios will be game 2 starter against Gray. Personally, I think that works out well for Twins. Berrios is not a lights out starter, most of the time. He can be, we have seen this, but he walks 2.5 per nine, strikes out only 8.8 per nine, for a ratio of 3.5 about. He will generally throw a lot of pitches, and we have some guys willing to work count. Also, Berrios gives up a lot of HR 1.2 per 9. He is normally that will give up runs in bunches when he does. He has been known to get big for big games, which could be concern, but I think our general approach should fare well. Gray on the other hand keeps the ball in the park. His k's and walks are about same as Berrios, but being he does not give up that many HR, that works in our favor. However, I do not expect the team to allow Gray to go more than 2 trips through with having full pen available. Gray may hate it, but he just does not do as well 3rd time through. Here is to hoping he has 5 to 6 good innings and leaves with a lead, something that has not happened much for him because we do not score runs for him. Lets change that now.