Trov

As long as our young guys grow and develop as we hope, the only thing that will hold us back is poor pitching signings or trades. We are pretty stacked in the position players, but pitching is thin at minors with guys of higher floors but lower ceilings. I am okay with that as long as we can supplement that. The fact that our team is surging with CC in one of his worst seasons, and Buck being out, as expected, but even when he was in he was not lighting to world on fire. Meaning if either do what they have shown in their careers will be bonus. I always hesitate to expect as good or better from rookies because a lot of time it comes down to adjustments. Specifically, Julien outside of his super hot July stretch with 6 HR, he has been not hitting for much power. His OBP is still very good, and my guess pitchers started to figure out how to avoid his HR swing. He needs to figure out how pitchers are pitching him now and adjust.

Sands has given up runs in 2 games out of 5 games, one of which we won 12-2, the other is the game we got walked off by Texas recently. Winder has given up runs in 4 of 8, with 2 being multi run games, one we lost 6-0 and other 13-2, so his 3 runs he gave up did not make difference in either. The other two games he gave up 1 run that did make the difference when we were down 3, he gave up 1 run in 9th to make it 4 and we scored 3 in bottom. The last was recent loss to Texas giving up the walk off. He also had 3 outings of 3 innings each of 0 runs. I would disagree that both have been terrible causing us to use the others too much. Winder has been used in long relief for most part and so has Sands. Yes, if they were replaced by someone that has higher leverage experience would have tried to use them over Jax or Pagan, but that does not mean the others would have been any more successful, that is speculating. The Texas game where Sands and Winder helped give us the loss may have been saved with other pitchers, but we do not know, it could have been one of the times the replacements did just as bad. It is also possible the replacements may have blown games others did not.

Many fans were upset the Twins did not buy rental pen pitchers during the trade deadline. The assumption was making a trade would have upgraded our struggling pen. Giving us more depth and not having to lean as heavy on the few top end guys we do have, who have had struggles of late. I am not going to address what it may have taken to get any of the guys, and will not speculate who we could have got had we made big offers to teams that stood pat, in hopes they would turn things around. I looked back at the deadline trades or before deadline. I identified 9 relief pitchers that were moved around the deadline, could have missed a couple just did quick search. Chapman was the first guy traded. He was great in July, and the start of August for Texas, but of late he has given up runs in a lot of outings, 5 of his last 6. It started off well, but lately he has been a liability for a struggling pen. Brad Hand has given up runs in 3 of the 10 games he has pitched since he was traded. He pitches 1 inning at time, and has been okay, but not lights out by any stretch. Our main lefty has given up runs in 4 of 14 games since deadline, really it would seem to be a wash. Hand gave up multiple runs in 2 of his, Thielbar would give up 1 each. Sam Moll, who has been the best relief guy traded, has given up 1 run in 14 outings. He would have been a great upgrade so far to any pen. Paul Sewald, who was traded from a team that went on a surge to be in first place since he was traded, actually has been good overall, blowing 2 saves and giving up runs 3 outings but having 13 outings and picked up saves in 9. He could have helped add depth, but he has not bee completely lights out. Still interesting the team that sent him away took off. Chris Stratton has given up runs in 4 of his 13, but as at least allowed in runner that was on when he came in at least 1 time. Jordan Hicks has allowed runs in 4 of his 15 games, pitching in higher leverage situations it would seem, picking up holds, saves, and wins generally coming in 7th or later. Joe Kelly has been injured and only pitched 3.1 innings since deadline. David Robertson has given up runs in 5 of 12 games, with each being at least 2 plus runs. this has resulted in 3 blown saves and 4 losses, as all games have been 9th or later. Reynaldo Lopez, gave up runs in 4 out of 13 games, all single runs with Angles, and 1 game of no runs with Cleveland. Some pitcher that Twins have used in stead of any of these guys: Balazovic had 5 games giving up runs in 2 of multiple runs. He has since been sent down for others. Pagan, who was doing well going into deadline, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, mostly single runs, and on a bad stretch with 5 in last 7 games giving up runs. Floro has given up runs in 2 of 11 games since deadline, and 13 since we got him. They were two terrible games giving up multiple runs, but he has not been used in too much high leverage outings. Duran, who I would assume would have stayed the top arm, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, picking up one loss and one blown save resulting in team loss, the wild pitch with 2 outs behind the batter pitch. Jax has given up runs in 4 out of 14 games, with 2 being 4 runs allowed. Looking back at guys moved, we cannot assume they would have done same with Twins, but even if we do assume that, I would say clearly Sam Moll would have been an upgrade, even more so being he is a lefty. Sewald maybe would have been an upgrade over Jax or Pagan. Both would have been welcome, but other than Moll no one is a clear upgrade. Most would have been on par or worse than what we have thrown out there it would seem. Yes, in some games had we just given up 1 run from pen we may have won, but even in Durans games who he has given up most runs per outing, the team has generally still won those games or were behind when he came in. My point is, even if we made trades, it is possible our pen would be in same place as the guys we have. Keep in mind, last year we traded for one of better guys in first half, he was terrible for us overall, and now the team we traded for him from picked him up on waivers. Just because our bullpen has struggled some of late, does not mean we could have fixed it with trades.

I am sure he got the nod over Martin because he will be DFA after the season to open up the 40 man spot. Good for him,, but other than adding a little extra defense and running this moves does little to help the team.

It is nice to some very good numbers this late in year. Generally that would mean they have grown as the year has gone along, or the comp has graduated, but I like to be optimistic.

If Jenkins can force that move I will be very happy. Not many HS kids will be moved up that high that fast, only the mega stars. This FO does not hesitate to move guys up when they show they are ready, but that is big moves for a 19 year old. He would be on same path as guys like Trout, Soto, Acuna Jr. Harper and a few others. If that is path he is on, we will be very happy.

I do not understand Cleveland, they actively sell at deadline, but then make claims for pitching on waivers. I get we did not make huge separation this month, and if we would have swept Cleveland they may not have made claims. However, I do not see these claims making the difference for them. Giolito has been not good. The pen guys may help hold some wins for them, as that has faltered for them some of late. I do not see this changing how the season ends up.

It is hard to compare the rookie classes because of where the team is at. In 82 they called up a ton of young guys together that grew to be WS champs in 87. None of them were HOF but some great players of their time. In 99 it was a similar movement, I believe they had like 17 rookies play at in that season. None had good years, but again laid ground work for years of fighting for division. Of the rookies that year Ortiz, who played 10 games, is HOF, sadly not for Twins because we wanted Matthew LeCroy to DH because he was right handed, ugh why do we put so much on those things? The 2004 class had the M&M boys, who would carry team for years, as well as Cuddyer. Pretty good three. Luis Rivas was in that group too, not so good. This class similar to 2004 had rookies supplement the vet lineup. Hopefully we can get future production similar to that rookie class, and hopefully we can get 1 or 2 HOF from them as well, but that is asking a lot.

There is no way to make sure you win a WS, no matter what you do roster construction. However, if you knew you get a WS win but it would have 10 straight losing seasons, would you do it? The alternative would be you have no clue what the outcomes will be during that period of time, you could have a stretch of playoffs with no WS, or you could still lose 10 seasons, or you could win several WS. This is not a comment on selling off prospects to increase odds or tanking to get top picks, it is just a fun question, would take the win for sure, if you also knew it would be long time of bad teams?

If you looked at all star break you could not say this, but today yes. Arraez in month of August has had just a terrible month. With similar plate appearances as every other month, he has OBP of .236. For him that might be the worst of his career. He went from being the great story of can he hit .400, to will he even win the batting title. I still love watching him play, but while some were upset at the trade in the first half, it sure is looking good now.

Getting hit by a pitch and not getting hurt is actually something you can work on. Yes, he may bet on the hand or wrist, as he did the other week. However, you move your body when a bell comes at you, you can either move away and due a dance to avoid it, or you can move your body so it is more likely to hit a safer area of the body. He clearly has been doing this his whole career. Graig Biggio was hit 287 times and never went on IL from it. Some guys get hit and go right on IL. It is always a risk to be hit by a pitch, but it is not that he is standing up there trying to hit his more exposed areas risking it more, he is just not trying to jump out of way, or he is letting it his his elbow pad. He should get the big Papi elbow pad, that thing was huge, and he never played the field and did not need to protect his throwing arm.

Luplow and Gallo are counting their days on the roster when Buxton and Kirilloff come back no way are those two still on the roster.

One thing he is clearly doing is trying to take the up and in pitch away from the pitchers. He is one that needs to get hands extended for big swings and the up and in will not get that done. So he strides toward the plate and if the pitcher misses up and in at all, there is good chance wallner is going to first. I think it is more than just getting on, but telling pitchers if you want to come up and in to me, you better hit your spot or I will be on first base. If you do miss your spot it will need to be either up out of zone, or back out over the plate.

I get the point of the article, I agree that a more balanced team has a much better shot in playoffs, because you are not counting on guys that are outperforming their norm. However, every playoff team that has success have guys that get hot. Really, I want the hot team with hot hitters over a the long term talented team. I find it interesting you left out the 2002 Twins, a very cute team in my opinion, that upset the much better not so cute Oakland team. That Oakland team made a nice story as well, but they had 3 top starters that by all accounts should have crushed the Twins. We went from the about to be out of baseball, contraction team, to winning division with a bunch of young hitters led by Jones and Hunter. The rotation for the playoffs were Radke, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, Eric Milton. Not exactly a great four guys. We were up against Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. By all rights we should have lost, but managed to steal one. Then we ran up against the Rally Monkey Angels. I do agree that sometimes teams outplay themselves in regular season and Baltimore may just be doing that. The playoffs are always about who is hot, and not making mistakes. The fact that the Twins have several guys in their lineup that could hopefully step up will be helpful. Both have a lot of young guys leading the way that do not have much playoff experience and you never know how players will respond in those spots too. I think that is where the "cute" teams tend to fall is they made the playoffs but then their mind set where changed. Every pitch is so much bigger. Every little mistake gets magnified, and tends to compound.

I expect they will go with the challenge system next year, and after a year or two of that, they will go full robo.

I agree. I hate when people say things like, "the umps get like 95% right" or something like that. One, that does not tell the whole story, because they actually only get 50% on the calls on the edges. I read article years ago about it, and it is even worse depending on count and how the ump called prior pitches. Some umps also hate to call strike 3 on hitters unless it is a 3-2 count, if the pitch is close. I agree it is the hardest thing to do, watch a baseball come flying toward you, while a bat may or may not come swinging past your face, and you need to not blink and get the call right. I commend the umps that do it great, but we have the tech to make it consistent call, lets do it.

Yes, people are acting like we got division locked up. We have a lot of bad teams to face finishing up the season, and Cleveland has a lot of games against playoff bound teams, or fighting for playoffs, but lets see where we are next week after our last game with Cleveland.

That would be nice to see, sadly we have not beaten some of the teams we really should have over the year. Right now we are 6.5 games behind Seattle, who cannot seem to lose right now. Of course if they start to lose to Texas or Houston that will help. If we keep winning we could make up that ground, but I find it unlikely, unless the three really just split against each other. If either takes over we will not catch them.

I agree, and hope it happens in MLB soon. However, my concern is that MLB will still hold off and both hitters and pitchers will have issues when they come up. Both will get used to the robo zone, then come up to MLB and have to deal with a whole new zone.

Pitchers are by far the hardest to predict in the draft. They are hard to predict from year to year. Some guys look like future HOF then fall off a cliff, and some guys find late in career surges. Even the top pick guys that everyone has as a top pick fail, I point to Mark Appel, taken in top part of draft 2 times, number 1 overall, and barely made the majors at age 30 after being out of MLB minor leagues for a period of time. We all want top pitchers, but even spending high draft picks on them do not work out always. Just because this team has not developed Ace level guys, does not mean they have not managed to develop reliable pitching and many times later in draft.

You point something very interesting the robo ump affect. I do not know if the strike zone is any smaller than what the MLB zone should be, so it could be argued that the zone is just being called correctly. I did not read the article you speak about. However, it does make some sense that it means numbers are a bit inflated because those borderline pitches that robo ump calls balls, because they are balls, the MLB human umps will call strikes.

I fully agree 1 thru 3. However, I think Ryan can regain some form and be better than Ober. Now if Ryan does not return to form and continues to give up long balls like he is pitching BP then I would do Ober.

First, with 6 games soon against Cleveland, a little early to say we will make playoffs. I am hopeful, but lets get past those games. We lose 5 of 6 then we are fighting it out for division all over again. We win 5 of 6 and we are coasting into playoffs, not really but much clear path. If the Twins think resting will make foot better, then go for it, but the issue, to my understanding is very specific to each player and how it has affected them. He clearly is doing better of late, and resting may not get the results you want sometimes.

I was reading a different forum and a commenter brought up an interesting note about AAA this year. Specifically, that AAA is using robo umps and MLB is not. The post talked about walks being way up and that is leading to more hard contact because to avoid missing the corners the pitchers are working more of the middle. Personally, I think that is what baseball is looking for, more offense and balls in play less getting called strike 3 on a pitch you could not if you tried as a hitter. That aside this is not a post about if the robo umps should be brought to MLB but if they are not and stay in AAA will that hurt the development of the player. I point to both Julien and Wallner as two guys who played a decent amount in AAA this year, not a ton, but enough to get used to the robo umps. For those who are not aware, AAA has 3 days of full robo umps, and 3 days of challenge system. Both of the guys have been talked about their eye's at the plate. Julien has been about a 4 walks to every 5 k's over his minor league career, but at MLB level this year with 100 more plate appearances at MLB over AAA he has walked just 4 times more, but struck out over twice as much, 88 k at MLB level versus 42 at AAA. With 36 walks at MLB level, and 32 at AAA. The eye test for Julien is he has taken a lot of pitches for called strike 3 and many times not in the tv box, keeping in mind that is not tied to the robo ump type system. Wallner, walked at closer to a 1 walk per 2 k's rate, with in 305 plate appearances in AAA this year he walked 39 times k 87. At MLB he has 152 plate appearances, with 11 walks to 49 strike outs. Similar I feel like I have seen many called third strikes on balls out of the zone. Sometimes for both players it may not be strike 3 out of the zone but 1 or 2. The question I really have is, if the players start learning the robo ump zone just before MLB level, will that affect their ability at MLB because they will be taking those pitches that in AAA will get called a strike, but at MLB you never know and no way to get it right? Will this lead to guys coming up and taking too many borderline pitches for called strikes? Is it good they are taking those called strikes? Maybe there is comfort in knowing you were right and the ump was wrong? Yesterday I watched Lewis expand the zone on a 3-2 pitch way outside, was that because he was scared the ump would ring him up? Clearly that pitch would not have been, but you start to expand the zone because the umps are making calls you are not used to. Even more so, you are up at MLB level you want to impress, but then umps start taking bats out of hands while you watch, what in your experience in AAA would be a ball, get called for a strike 3. I want to make clear, I do not think all difference in walks and strike out numbers are due to this change in balls and strikes calls, but I think even the small sample I have seen with my own eyes is guys taking pitches for called strike 3 that maybe someone not trained in robo umps would look to foul off worried that ump will get it wrong. The issue with that is sometimes you expand the zone and make the job easy for the ump.

For the first round of games, Ober should not be on the 26 man roster, only because he will not start the first 3 games, and he should not be a top guy out of pen. We can add him to second series if we make it there. I personally do not think he will make any starts in playoffs, baring injures from others. He may be used for a long relief person but we really hope that is not needed. If Ryan is healthy no reason the rotation first round is not Lopez, Gray, and either Ryan or Maeda, and if in second round if we went three games the one that did not start in first round then back to top. I would want 1 emergency long relief guy of one of our current 6 starters, the other should not be on playoff roster in my opinion. I like Ober and think he is a fine pitcher, but he is pitching more than he ever has and had some struggles of late. All it takes is one bad inning and we lose a post season game.