Trov

What gives me the biggest pause is his statements about his outing in the clinching game. He reported he was off a bit because of the moment. Hopefully, pitching in that situation will give him the experience on what it will be like in playoffs. If a game in regular season to clinch playoff spot caused him to be off, when there was no way at that point we were not making playoffs, how will he do in an elimination game? I still have faith in him, and he is the best we got, but when I heard those comments I gulp a little.

If the Rays can catch Baltimore, will require Baltimore to get swept at home by Boston, then the Rays will try to win division, get a bye and home field, where they play much better. However, if they cannot catch Boston, they will set up their rotation, make sure their top guys are good to go and rest any nagging hurt muscles are good for the wild card round. Every team would do that. They will not concede the games to Jays, but the fact is, they will be playing the Jays most likely in that first round. So they will play 3 games in Toronto, then go to TB for 3 game more important series. They will not risk burning their top arms. It is possible if TB sweeps Toronto the west sends 2 wild card teams, and would require Seattle to win their series against Texas, and Houston to win 1 game against Arizona. If Toronto wins 1 game Houston would need to win 2 games and Seattle will have to sweep, depending on tie breakers, did not look those up. If Toronto wins 2 they will make wild card and most likely the number 2 wild card. If Texas beats Seattle then the wild cards will be Houston and Toronto just in what order. But once the wild cards are locked both teams will look to set up their rotation for playoffs and they will not care too much about who they are facing.

I came across this article on MLB Rumors https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/the-twins-bullpen-is-in-good-shape-for-the-postseason.html and it really shows our pen is in decent shape going in playoffs. This is despite our thoughts that it is in rough shape. It points out that our current 9 man pen has a 2.84 ERA over 276 innings this year. That is a very good looking number overall. Yes, every pen guy will have bad innings, and that gets even bigger in the playoffs. It is possible anyone of them, like Theilbar did yesterday, will have a bad inning. However, when you look at that our current pen as constructed sure looks pretty strong.

Really this offense needs to keep doing what they have the second half. They need to have quality at-bats. Too often in the past our teams have let the moment get too big, and we make dumb mistakes. That is one concern I have with so many young guys that have yet to hit in playoffs. I hope they do not try to do too much and treat it like any other game. I remember in many of the losses over the years we make bad mistakes running, fielding, and bad at bats. I remember one of the extra inning losses to Yankees we had a chance to take lead in 9th off Rivera, and Gardenhire left Kubal, a rookie in, who had looked terrible all game, and all we needed was a sac fly. We had a guy on the bench that was good at making contact, but Kubal swung at 3 pitches, 2 of which were no where close to strike zone. I remember many base running errors as well by guys that normally had smart plays. My main concern is if a young guy comes up in big spot they expand the zone seeking that big hit and does not just do the normal at bat.

They will announce times when they know matchups. The times will be based on expected TV draw. Generally the Twins get the bad time slots based on that. Being they are more likely to match up to either another central time zone, or pacific that will impact things. If we face Seattle, it is likely we will get at minimum a later afternoon start, else Seattle fans will need to be watching games at 10:00, and will get less viewers from that alone, but if the start it in afternoon, they will get more viewers from that market. However, if we get a Texas team, starting earlier in afternoon will not be issue. I just hope they start after 5 central, else I will not get to see any of game 1 or 2.

I agree anyone can have a good game and anyone can have a bad game. If it works out we are facing the 3rd and 4th best pitchers in the rotation does not mean we will anything. It just means we are facing someone that has had less success in the season, but any pitcher can get blown up quickly.

Right now Seattle and Houston are fighting for last spot, with Texas holding onto division, but has 4 games against Seattle to close out season. Seattle is a half game behind Houston, but they play today. Houston then plays Arizona to close out the season, and Arizona is playing for NL wild card too. If you look at the starters for Seattle and Houston down the stretch, if they go to last game of season to decide the winner, both would not be able to line up their top starters for the series. Seattle is set to send out Castillo on Saturday and Kirby on Sunday. With the 3 game series set to start on Tuesday, this would make Kirby only available on a short rest start on game 3, and Castillo on short rest for game 2 or regular rest game 3. Most likely Logan Gilbert would start game 1, then depending on outcome of that game, if we win, Castillo would be used on short rest for game 2 and Kirby on short rest for game 3 if needed. Generally short rest does not work out for starters. For Houston, their top guy Valdez will be available for game 1 as he is set to pitch today, so will be ready for a game 1, as he is not slated to pitch the weekend. However, Verlander is set to pitch Sunday. Of course if they lock up wild card before then they will not run Verlander out there, but if they need a win to make playoffs they will go with him. So he would be like Kirby only available on a short rest start for game 3 if it goes there. It is also possible Houston is looking to fight for division and then they will need to decide if sending Verlander out for a win on Sunday is worth the risk reward of getting a bye or not having him for wild card round. Texas, should they be looking at a sweep of Seattle and losing division falling into wild card, they have Jon Gray as their Sunday starter, but Montgomery, most likely their best starter of late, would be available for game 1. So here is to hoping all three teams need to fight for a win on Sunday and use up one of their top starters to at best be a short rest game 3 starter. It really comes down to what Seattle does over next couple of days. If they win, it will be a fun weekend of baseball for AL west to see how things shake out, but if they lose the next couple of days, then spots will be locked and we will face Houston most likely with a ready to go Valdez and Verlander 1 and 2.

Interesting that when our biggest strike out guys started sitting, for various reasons, our offense started to do better. Wonder if there is a connection on strike out rates and offense? I know the league has gone away from caring about strike outs for hitters, but I strongly believe, in most cases, they are the worst way to get out and it is not equal. Guys that are all or nothing swingers will miss chances to drive in runs on singles.

I get the logic in this, and if the home road splits were not so far with Maeda and Ryan I normally would not care. Ober for example has little difference to care where he pitches, but with the other two they are very different. As I said, without looking deeper to explain why, it is something to look into for the decision makers. It could be when the majority of the bad split was, for example was most of the bad starts for Ryan when he was hurt on the road, which would explain something, but a quick review does not look that is case, as he only had 3 road games versus 4 home games during that stretch too. Point is, for a team that uses so much data, they better be looking at that and figuring out is there an advantage to pitching Ryan at home versus the road, and Maeda on road versus home?

Rocco has said no plan for game 3, if needed has been made. Really, we need to win game 1 to worry much about a game 3, because if we lose game 1, then game 2 is all hands on deck, do whatever you need to do to get to game 3. So if we lose game 1, then do not be surprised if we see Gray go 4 or 5 innings, he is terrible round 3 through order generally, and we run out Maeda or Ryan as a piggy back depending on score. If we win game 1, we have a little more room for error in game 2 and will need to plan to be ready for game 3 and do not want to burn out pen for game 3 in a lost cause of a game, if that is the situation. You should never concede a playoff game, like you can in regular season, but at same time you need to be ready for do or die games too.

This is a crazy last week for the West. 3 teams playing for 2 spots and 1 of those being a bye most likely.

If we do not win at least 1 of the first 2 games, the starting pitching depth will mean nothing. As pointed out, we will be facing most likely a strong duo as well, against guys that could match our top 2 pitch for pitch. It is unlikely we will face Toronto, so one of either Texas, Houston, or Seattle. I hope we can win 2 and worry about who starts games 1 and 2 in round, but anything can happen in a single baseball game, and we have shown our offense turtles when in the playoffs.

I know this has been discussed a ton, but I wanted to point out some things that have not been discussed much as to who to go with game 3. The discussion has mainly been Ryan versus Maeda, with some talk about Ober. Most talk is Ober is not the guy because of recent slide, most think due to never pitching this many innings in a season before. When you look at his numbers in second half, he has given up more HR, and his walk/K rate is much worse. I would not run him out for a game 3 deciding game. I for awhile thought I would start Maeda because he is the vet, and has been on a bit better run of late. He also tends to not give up as many HR as Ryan has. Ryan could get blown up quickly. However, after looking at the home road split my mind got changed. Joe Ryan has 13 home starts and 14 road starts. Maeda has 8 home starts and 12 road starts. Ryan has put up much better numbers at home. He more K's at home, despite 1 less game. He gives up less HR per 9 at home. Batting average, On base percentage, and slugging allowed is all better at home, but a wide margin. Why is this, not sure have not done that deep of a dive, but the number sure look like something is better for him at Target Field. If we assume he is going to be 3rd or 4th starter, that means if we go to 3 games in first round, he will either start game 3 at home in round 1, or if we advance game 1 in second round on the road, and Maeda would do the reverse. When you look at Maeda's splits, he has better road numbers than home. His slash numbers are about as reverse for the road and in line with what Ryan does at Target Field than when Maeda is away from it. These are some extreme splits for whatever reason Maeda pitches much better away than at home. So to maximize Ryan and Maeda, we should have Ryan pitch game 3 if needed, and Maeda would pitch game 1 in second round. Now ideally we win in 2 games, then I run Maeda out for game 1 in second round, and hopefully whoever is game 1 starter in first round, assuming Lopez, will be on enough rest for game 2, and then Ryan could pitch game 4 at home, maximizing that split again. With how extreme Maeda's and Ryan's splits are I feel like they cannot be ignored and we should ride with them. There may be other reasons to make the call, but I hope the team does look at the home road splits and unless they know of a good reason why they are so extreme and they would be negated by other factors, it should be part of decision making.

I agree that Funderburk should be on the roster to add that 2nd lefty. There will be times where we really could use a lefty and if you have overused Thielbar or already used him we will not have one. I would go Ryan game 3, if needed. His home road splits are very in favor of pitching home, where Maeda does better on road.

Bwar has McLain ahead of Steer. McLain has better OPS+ and OPS generally. He plays much better defense. The only reason Steer has better counting numbers is because he has 200 more at bats. They are close, but I would go McLain over Steer too.

Betts and Acuna have similar WAR, but Acuna has the better offense numbers, Betts makes up the difference on defense. Acuna being the 5th ever 40-40 player, leading league in most offensive numbers will give him the nod.

Really with the teams the Twins are facing going 7-1 is not out the question, not likely but they are 3 of the worst teams in baseball right now. I am not counting on us catching the number 2 spot but there is a chance. Houston has been doing their best to not run away with it at least, and really Seattle and Texas are playing for the final playoff spot in a best of 7 series, with 3 game series as a break between.

I would not throw Varland into the highest leverage roll when he has never been in it, unless you have little choice. Yes, in his very SSS of relief pitching he has done well, outside his one appearance against Mets with 2 solo shots. That really is his issue is his HR he gives up. It is possible, without looking deeper into his HR issue, giving up 1 HR ever 4 innings, he could be more effective as a relief guy. Some guys when they reduce the pitch mix and increase effort for the 1 or 2 innings being asked they do better there, if the third or forth pitch is what they give up the HR on. Duran may be not as lights out as we want of late, but he still is the best option we have overall, and has the mentality to do the job. Varland strikes out less, walks a few less, but ratio is about the same, but Varland gives up HR at a much higher rate. Do not be fooled by 4 good relief outings. I still like Varland, but would not want to hand him the ball in a 1 run game in playoffs in 9th compared to Duran.

I personally do not think much of the Blue Jays. I do not think their pitching is that great. Gausman is clearly good, but Berrios is very up and down, as we know. When he is on he can be one of best, but he also can give up a lot of runs quickly. They do have a strong overall offense. To me it does not matter which team we play, each team we are facing will be a tough team overall.

It is early to dub him the next Kirby, but he clearly has a similar personality to go with great skill. If Lewis can grow over same time as Puckett did, we are in for some great things. They are no where the same type of player/hitter, but I get the post is more about the leader. Lewis clearly wants to play every day no matter how he feels. He wants to help the team win, and loves to come up with big hits. All similar to Puckett.

Greene was a potential 2 way player as well coming out. Some talked about giving him that chance, but Reds never did. I am good with Lewis over everyone so far. Greene has the velo, but walks way too many be a top pitcher in the league. He averages 5 innings a start, because he throws a lot of pitches. If he ever learns to pitch he could be great, but he is league average pitcher right now. Yeah, he got a ton of strike outs against a team that strikes out a ton. He averages about 12 per nine. but he also walks 4 per 9.

The reaction I saw of Lewis was not that of a significant injury, but someone who was upset they were taking him out for an injury. When he had the core issue, he clearly knew he was hurt for a period of time, but with this when Tingler was coming out of dugout, Lewis clearly was telling him he was fine to stay in, and Tingler told him no. If Lewis knew he had a significant injury he would not have argued with the manager and trainer to stay in. That is how I saw the interaction.

It is not the clock at this point, it would require someone to go on 60 day, and ask the league for a waiver to use him in the playoffs at this point. My guess the league would not give waiver, unless it was either Lewis or CC that went on the 60 day IL, instead someone else. I could be wrong, but my guess that is consideration as well.

I hope Stewert can get enough rehab to play in playoffs. I am a little worried because he has never had the track record he did early in year that he can be depended on, but who knows.

The way Lewis reacted after the swing I am hopeful it is minor. He was clearly trying to argue to stay in an play, and was told hell no. When he hurt his core, he got upset right away, this time he seemed upset he was coming out more so. I could be wrong, but the fact he appeared to be fighting to stay in gives me some hope.