Trov

Martin, Camargo, Severino, are really the only 3 I say they need to protect. Not saying others do not warrant discussion, but they are the only 3 that without a doubt would get taken in rule 5. They are all AAA players that there would be a team willing to put on MLB roster. There are a few other AAA guys on there, that should be talked about, but some of the other top prospects like Salas are less likely to get taken in rule 5. Of course there could be a Tigers type team, that took Badoo, from single A, but rarely do high A guys, outside pitchers, get taken in rule 5. Pitcher are more likely because you can stash in the pen for the year if needed. However, position players are harder to stash and will need to play more. I am sure they would risk losing several guys, but outside the 3 mentioned, many teams will take huge risk. That being said, Twins have 46 guys on 40 man roster right now. 6 on 60 day. I believe 7 are FA, so the crunch will take care of itself. There are a few clear DFA guys, Luplow, Stevenson, which frees up the 2 spots we would need to get those 3. There are a few other DFA candidates like Gordon, Moran, De Leon, a few other pitchers depending on how team feels. Polo and Kepler could get options declined, and Farmer could get decline arbitration. That frees up a lot of spots to fill in if needed. Overall, I do not see a lot of tough decisions based on 40 man roster moves.

Many will say who do we sign, any trades, who will replace player 'x'. However, the biggest question for the Twins will be who will be broadcasting their TV games, and how much money will they get from them. At this point the Twins have no deal in place. With all the issues with Bally, and not even knowing if they will be a broadcasting network next season there is a lot of questions. Reports are Twins were paid about $54 million this last season. Bally could barely do that. Will the team find a broadcast network that can pay near that? Will MLB take over the broadcast rights and if so how much will Twins get? Can Twins go to an all digital solo broadcast, and how much will it cost fans and how much will team make? The reason this question is so huge is when the teams budgets for the year, they count on that TV money. Losing out on $54 million is not a small thing. The payroll for Twins this year when all said and done was around 156 mil. Next year they have 92 on the books already, if they pick up the options of Kepler and Polanco. Arb salaries are being estimated around 19 mil, depending on who is retained. That bring projected, without trades or other FA signings, like Sonny Gray coming back, around $110. Even if we assume the team was at break even, if you cut $54 mil out of the budget they are operating at a loss by about 10 mil. If they were making some profit, then they may be at break even with current roster, again no new FA or trades, and we keep Kepler and Polo. Depending on how long this question goes on it will have to affect how the team makes decisions. I do not want to get into how the team could lose money because the owners are rich, they are a business and no business should expect to operate at a loss because they owner can afford it. Also, there is a lot more expenses than just player payroll. At this point, there does not appear to be a clear path as to who, or how games will be broadcasted next year. I assume the very local broadcast networks cannot swing $54 million for a season, so it will have to a cable network, to get the money from the cable providers for having the channel. But that is what led to Bally issues this year, was they wanted more from cable and satellite providers to carry Bally, to cover the fact they were losing money on their broadcasting deals. So even if a network steps up, how much can they offer? There was going to be a natural reduction in payroll this year, due to the younger guys stepping up to take over for vets anyways. But, Kepler played well enough his option would normally be picked up, but saving 10 million when he really has had 1.5 good seasons in his career, and rest just average to slightly below average at plate. He has always been good on defense, but he is getting older too. They may look to pick up the option in hope of trade, but he will not fetch much. Polanco already was on the fence to have his option picked up. He is still a decent player, but his injuries are mounting, and we have others that can take his place. If Lewis and Julien are healthy all year, Polanco should be on bench, assuming Julien is not DH. Even so, Lee should be making a debut, and Martin is there too. Really, until the team knows how much money, if any, comes in for broadcasting, it is hard to project a team budget. This is the biggest question for the team going into offseason.

I agree with the top 4 getting offers. I agree with the bottom 3 not getting an offer, save for maybe Gordon because they do like athletic guys that can play all over. Farmer is the biggest question. His number is a bit high for someone that will not start and will play mainly against lefties and late inning defense guy for Julien.

The strike outs are a huge issue. It is part of their game, but I hope going into next year they work a bit more on it. I know the team wants to hit the ball hard, because that generally is how to best score runs, and in the second half we scored a decent amount of runs, compared to first half. Rocco pointed out we walked a lot and look for "barrels" because getting on base and hit balling hard is best way to score runs. I have a couple of issues with the statement. One, walking is not the only way to get on base. I agree they should not just be looking to put the ball in play with weak contact to say, well I did not strike out. However, strike outs do nothing for the team, the only time you would take a strike out over putting the ball in play is when putting the ball in play results in a double play. Really, you can have the best of both worlds. How I took Rocco's comments was, we would rather go deep into count, getting either a walk or strike out, than put a ball in play early in count with weak contact. This makes sense, overall, but you can change your 2 strike approach, depending on the situation, to look to put more balls in play. Jeffers is one I noticed that with through the year. After 2 strikes he would choke up, as we did as kids, and look to hit the ball to right field, letting the fastball travel more. So with less than 2 strikes he was looking for a good pitch to hit and will take pitches he would not want to. Then after 2 strikes he would say well now lets try to not strike out. If more of the team would have that type of approach I think it would help. What will also help is the robo ump or at min the challenge system. Julien had so many strike outs on called third strikes on inside pitches. The box would say it was inside but he would get rung. Sometimes they were strikes too, but it gets frustrating when a guy takes a ball that is called a strike no matter the count. Of course for strike 3 versus ball 4 is the worst, but even for a strike 1, it changes how the rest of the at bat is played out.

I did not look up the scorecard for last night's game, but there was some called strikes well outside the zone against the Twins. The fact it was a 1 run game each called strike well outside the zone is an issue. I really hope we get at minimum a challenge system. Julien gets burned so much taking pitches in off the plate that get called for strikes, so often strike 3 too. That has to be so frustrating for a hitter, you know you take a ball and get called out, then you get to see that it was confirmed the ump was wrong, but you get nothing but a K for it. I am not saying the Twins did not get some in their favor, but as the score card indicates, more important ones went against the Twins. The first called strike against Lewis was huge with the bases loaded in game 3. Falling behind 1-0 instead of up 0-1 for a pitcher with bases loaded is huge. Even more so for Mr. Grand Slam.

I think people over value what Nick Anderson has done in his career. For Tampa Bay he had basically 38 really good innings over 2 seasons. He was decent this year with Braves, but still only 35 innings for the year. Pagan for us did 69 innings, with similar other numbers. I mean in Nick Anderson's career he has only pitched only 122 innings total. Sure, he had an amazing 38 innings over 2 seasons for Tampa Bay, but outside of that he is a good, not great, late inning guy.

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star. I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year. After 30 they tend to trend down. This year he had crazy hot April, an above average July, and all-star level September, but every other month was well below replacement level. He may have some hot streaks, but a rising star he is not, nor will he. He is too old to be a rising star, at best he is a guy that can get on a hot streak, but I bet there is about 20 to 25 teams that would not even have him on their 40 man. The Twins included.

The youth got you to the post season, and sadly they have not stepped up in the post season. Lewis did in first round, but Astros clearly have a plan right now for him, and that is throw outside with pitches moving off the zone. I have not had a chance to watch every at bat, because of work, but we knew if the kids struggled we would be in trouble. Still got one more loss this round, hopefully we can rally today put on a good showing and return to Houston Friday. The amount of men left on base has been crazy and the amount of double plays. Hopefully, the guys can figure out what Houston's plan for them have been and make the adjustments.

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format. Personally, I find the time off for the higher seeds can hurt them. Baseball has always been about who is hot, and taking time off can hurt that. One team I point at a ton for this is the 2007 Rockies. No one expected them to even make the playoffs, until they went crazy run in September going 20-8 with a win in October as well. They were hot as hot could be. They swept the division round, then the championship round. The Red Sox went to 7 game in the ALCS and Rockies just sat and waited. The Red Sox won the last 3 games of the ALCS coming back from down 3-1 to get into the series and quickly swept the Rockies. The Rockies clearly lost the momentum they had with the long time off and Red Sox where on a hot streak. This is similar to the wild card round. The teams with the bye sit for 5 days after end of season, where the winner of the wild card rounds had at least 2 tense games.

If Buck could play CF and we could count on him playing each game, he would be an upgrade in the OF, however, clearly he cannot. He could get slotted in the 9 hole, play top defense and we hope for best on offense, similar to Taylor. He could be a difference maker at the plate at any time, but you cannot count him to be consistent right now.

When you look at the 81 trades, most are not even remembered because very minor. I find there was more good trades versus bad trades. You can judge some trades for what we ultimately got in return versus what we gave up, but at the time they may have been good trades, just injures did not work out. I think the smaller trades of Farmer and Taylor this year was huge, and did not give up much to get. I can understand why people do not like some of the trades, and the original post talk about lack of direction. What I find about some of the trades is they did seem to be moves just to make moves, more so early on. I would disagree that the Maeda trade was bad. Yes, he missed a full year and half basically, but he helped in 2020 and 2023 a lot. If you look just at innings pitched, sure they are not far from each other, but Madea was starter innings and Gratoral was pen innings. Who would have started for Maeda when he was healthy? Looking at other moves made or players kept is important just as much as who was sent away. The Mahle trade, turned out to be terrible, but the guys we sent away were far down our depth chart and we would have wanted to move them eventually anyways to open up 40 man roster space.

With series tied 1-1 we will have a game 4. I believe Dusty will decide who starts game 4 depending on outcome of game 3. If the Twins win game 3, I bet Dusty sends Verlander out for game 4 on short rest, then if needed game 5 Valdez on full rest. If Twins lose game 3, I bet he runs J.P. France out for game 4, then Verlander, if needed on full rest for game 5, with Valdez the early pen move if Verlander struggles at all. I believe this because if you are in an elimination game, Dusty will go with what he thinks is his best chance to win, but if he has a game in hand he will want to rest Verlander, to make sure he has full rest, and then he both his best pitchers for game 5 if needed. Also, it set up his starters for next round if Astros can end it in 4 without using Verlander again, but if they could get knocked out you need your best, even on short rest. This shows how big game 3 is for Twins. If we can win it will have Astros on heels, and we seen how some managers will, at times, overmanage in elimination games.

I heard on a broadcast the other day that we actually have handled lefties well over the last couple months. Yesterdays game showed the platoon can be huge. Farmer is only on the team at this point to hit lefties and be defense replacement if needed. He hit a 2 run HR. Salano is there to hit lefties, he got a great base hit in his third at bat. Castro, actually hits rights better, but he get the start over the Wallner because of the lefty and he gets a big hit in front of Farmers HR. 2 wins of the 3 in the post season has been because of what we did against left handed guys.

I am all for this. He makes so much sense over Ryan. I talk about how Ryan should be game 3 in wild card round because of how well he pitched at home compared to the road. Ober has earned this and I was worried about Ryan on road in a hitter park. Not that Ober will not give up a HR, but my guess they will have a quick hook for him and go to Maeda if need be.

One thing I would add to Lewis also took a walk in game 2 that led to Berrios being taken out. If he does not draw that walk, and it was an 8 pitch walk, so was a good at bat with ball 1 and 4 being close pitches. Had he not walked I bet Berrios stays in there. He may not have had a hit in game 2, but his good 2nd time up helped as well.

For me the biggest stat that should stick out to people is the under .500 against teams over .500 for Houston. That to me tells a big story that they got by beating up on lessor talent but struggled more when facing higher talent. They are still clearly a good team, but agree they are not the juggernaut they looked like last year.

I agree with the first 4 guys listed in the lineup you state, but Abreu has not been the guy from the Sox. Sure, at any time he could have a stretch but really their line up is top heavy. Pena had one run in playoffs as a rookie, this year he is not doing as well. He hit 22 HR regular season in less at bats than this year, where he has 10. Yes, they are more playoff tested as a team, but it is not like you can just flip a switch because it is playoff time and perform better than you had all season. You may have better outcomes, but looking at how people performed all year does carry into playoffs some. We were terrible at hitting lefties, but over last couple months we actually did pretty well against them overall. I agree Valdez is one of the best in the game, but over last couple months we have been one of better teams against lefties. Also, it was a lefty we did all the damage game 2. Valdez does scare me the most though. Last year, Verlander was clear Cy Young winner, but he had 2 good starts and 2 bad starts. His first start in playoffs, after the bye, he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Then second game he was dominate. Third game he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. 4th game he was good, 1 run 5 innings but walked 4. Point is, he clearly can have bad starts in post season. In 2019, out of 6 starts only 2 were quality starts. The argument that our team lacks experience in playoffs so we are at disadvantage or cannot expect much is just poor argument. Every player has to have their first games. They may be good they may be bad. Lewis starts off on fire in 1 game, but game 2 he did nothing really, outside a walk that pulled Berrios.

The Twins would have high incentive to buy out FA years, Lewis does not. Lewis believes in himself, and if he wants to max his money, he will not want to sign an extension buying out FA years unless it is at a value he is hoping to demand, that will be around like 30 mil or more. Does the team want to commit to that now, I doubt it. If I am advising Lewis, I tell him to play out his years and hope to max arb years then get a big deal when he is FA because it will be his only one. If the team offers enough then sure, but you normally only do these early deals in a way to get team friendly values later in contract.

I have said that Toronto played like the Twins in the past in playoffs had. Toronto made several mistakes on the bases ending possible rallies. In the past the Twins have done many of the mistakes Toronto made. We were also saved by the near misses. Chapman specifically had an at bat each game late in game down 2 with a chance to tie or take lead. In game one he was about 3 feet short of a game tying ball off the wall. In game 2 he was 1 foot from hitting tying ground rule double, only to then hit inning ending double play. A lot broke right for the Twins, but you need that in short series.

I need to say I was 100% wrong on Castro. I did not want him to make the team out of camp. I did not see him as a guy that would do much on the team and he was just a place holder for a period of time. Boy was I wrong. I think he should be considered for MVP of the team. Not because his WAR is great, bWAR of 2.6, which is good but not team leading. however, he made the team work for the year. The FO loves this kind of player. The guy that can play many positions, and can defend them well enough. Can hold own hitting wise, and in Castro case a switch hitter so can pinch hit, pinch run, or defense replacement without worry of being insta out later on. I personally feel without Castro we are not nearly as good of a team. We may not have even made playoffs with the other injuries we delt with, he could always come in to cover for someone. He has clearly earned a spot for next few years, unless he regresses. This is by far his best year, career bWAR of 3. His OPS is 100 points higher than his last two seasons of full time ball. It may be a break out year, or an outlier year, but it came at a good time for us.

I need to point out a few things. First, I do like the FO and what they have done, but the article says Varland, Stewart, and Paddock helped in first round. Paddock did not throw a pitch. Varland got 2 outs but 1 was a jumping catch, most likely not needed to jump, at the wall and the other was a long battle strike out. Stewart was dominate in his 1 inning, but the other two did not do a ton to help. Varland was more lucky than good. Hopefully, he will do better against Houston. In addition, the offense turn around in second half for a few reasons, and it was not because the team stuck with the plan. It was we benched Gallo, for most part, until his injury. Buck was put in IL, Lewis was back and healthy, Wallner and Julien got consistent starts. Kepler, CC, and Salano started to hit. Those were the main things that went right second half, was that 2 of our normal starters out of line up, and three rookies were given chance to prove what they could do. Kepler started hitting like he never has. So they did stick with players in the organization they had, and did not fire anyone, but they did not stick with the team they had at the beginning of the year, or even the highest paid players. They made plenty of changes, just nothing major.

I was too young to know the 87 play, only was 3. However, the pickoff yesterday was clearly a huge shift. It ended the inning and took so much wind out of the sail of Toronto. It was something past Twins teams would have had happen to them. Then you start thinking about how things will go wrong.

Okay people are blowing the play in game way out of what it was. First, to say "extraordinary display of baseball wit and incredible arm strength." Is just not accurate. The arm strength part yes, and the throw was perfect in the situation. Not taking away from that. However, people are acting like no other player would have done what CC did. Watch the play and you will see him just standing there until the ball rolls past Polo. Okay so he was being a little lazy expecting his teammate to make a play. Personally, I think CC should have been running to back up the play and or to cover 3rd, but he just stands there. Then when he see the ball rolling in the middle of no where, and he is the closest guy to it, I would not say it was extraordinary baseball wit to figure out he should go get it. I mean do we say how amazing a play someone makes when they grab the ball and are closest to it? Really, the fact that he took no effort to back up the play, like we are taught in little league, the runner does not even try to go home. Maybe CC thought of that, like he was playing some game of dare the runner he will get there first, but my guess he just assumed Polo would stop the ball, then when it did not happen he did what any player would have done and go get it, and then his arm and perfect throw makes the good play. But please people stop acting like no other player would have had the mind to go grab a ball that is just rolling and he is closest to get it. If he would have just stood there and watched it would have been upset he never moved and how dumb of a play it was. All that being said, we do not win the series without him, and his leadership has shown. He telling Gray that they could do the pickup, and he calling it himself shows he does have a good mind for what to do and when.

You hit many of the things I generally try to point out. The Mahle trade ended up bad, but Steer and CES would have been in minors most of year for us, and taking room on 40 man most likely. No move can be looked in a vacuum, but what other moves were made. Many were upset we traded Garver for what we did, but then we flipped that to dump Donaldson so we could sign CC. The FO trusted certain people to help carry us along. We traded for Lopez because we trusted Lewis would get healthy and possibly Julien would be ready, both pretty much came true. Some moves will fail terribly, like Mahle, and Dyson type trades, and some high draft picks will fail. However, every FO has these issues. As long as the team is building overall in a positive direction. I mean we could be the White Sox who botched a talented group of young guys. Not only did we win this year, but I think we will win the division for years to come because we have depth still in minors ready to come up in next few years, assuming positive growth.

Nothing has a bigger debate on here than the FO and the job they are doing. They came in after the 2016 season, ending a long run of the Terry Ryan FO, even with the short stint Ryan was gone it was still his guys running the show. This created a huge shift in how the organization worked, as Terry Ryan was as old school as you could get. I think Clint Eastwood shadowed him in preparing for "Trouble with the Curve". Falvey was hired in part because he was known to be the guy to help Cleveland build their pitching pipeline. Many fans wanted a quick turn around after several terrible years and magic would just happen, forgetting it takes years to change things up normally. Having most guys from the past teams there was the surprising 2017 team, followed by a let down in 2018. Then the surging bomba squad 2019, built in part of guys brought in by Falvene FO. Pitching was still terrible and no pipeline was in sight. Most guys were not developing and no big names were see, outside of Gratoral, but questions about his ability to start were out there. 2020 we trade him to get Maeda, who is Cy young runner up and leads team to playoffs. We then make a trade for Sonny Gray. Many different trades and signings including CC, twice, shocking the baseball world. There are still a few guys from before 2017 season on the roster, and some came from the organization before hand too. Mainly Buck, Kepler, Polanco, and AK are from the old FO. AK was drafted in 2016. Of course this is natural that over 6 years there will be turn over, but all the major contributors were guys from this FO. The whole starting rotation was either traded for in last couple of years, or drafted by FO. The main pen guys, outside of Griffin Jax, drafted 2016, were either drafted, or traded for by FO. The team was built slowly, but has a solid core for hopefully years to come. We have to have debates on where to play guys like Lewis because others are knocking on the door. Who do we put out there as starter, not because they are terrible, but because five guys have shown an ability to pitch in post season. We have pen that despite many calling to have gutted farm system to upgrade at deadline has been great in 2 games so far. There are some outside Twins fans that think this is a good team for the playoffs and it is mostly because the Falvene FO has brought in the right guys. Yes, it took some years, and they got many things wrong, but so does every FO.