Trov

I am always for trading guys at peak value. I see Jeffers staying, unless they are blown away by a deal. I would not shop him, but I would not ignore phone calls. In terms of Larnach or Castro, I do not see either being that high in value. Yes, Castro coming off great season overall, but not that he is so valuable a team will overpay for him. I mean any team could have had him last year and passed. If he repeats next season then I think he value skyrockets. Larnach may be at his peak, but that is still low. He is bat first corner OF guy that has shown little ability to hit offspeed or against lefties. He is a platoon guy that is streaky at best. Not many teams will be looking for someone like him.

I see no reason to speculate on what someone else will do in this situation. Unless someone here personally knows Levine and has talked with him about how he makes decisions for himself. We do not know what drives his decision making. If he is offered a position and takes it, it is because he felt it was best for him.

They tried before and failed because cable would not pick them up, because Fox sports forced the issue. Now that they are out it could be done, but how much can they really make? Without knowing the Wolves and Wild contracts with Bally they would be hard to bring in, more likely they would need to be a full on partner, which leads to issues too, being so much overlap in games, they would need to have a second channel, like what Bally has. In terms of U of M, they have a network and will not be allowed to have games, even for minor sports, broadcast most likely outside the big 10 network. As for smaller schools, sure they would be willing to sell TV rights, but how much would the Twins be willing to pay for them? The biggest issue is outside the live events how much will they get people to watch, and how much ad space can they sell. Will they get what they need from tv providers to pay for the channel. I personally see the future of sports cast being solo routes with pay for the season streaming options. Before we were blacked out because of local broadcast rights, but my guess unless a local broadcast is going to pay huge, teams will make more if someone pays 80 to 100 bucks for a full season streaming through MLB or other apps. Not sure how many on average numbers from 2023, but in 2021 they were way down, but my guess if someone bought a full season from start, even if team is doing bad and you stop watching by end of year they still got the money. So for math purpose lets say 125K buy a full season package at 100 bucks. That is 12.5 million. Much less than what they got paid from Bally, but if you also sell advertising my guess they would make much more. I could be wrong. I do not think the Twins and other local sports will invest in trying to build a network right now. Too much question in the future of cable/dish and being Twins failed once before will make them pause.

He only threw 8 innings in AA really that was High A numbers. He averaged under 4 innings a start. My guess they are working him along slowly based on age, and velo TJ is not unlikely in his future if they over work him. His ERA was good, but his WHIP was above his career average. In high A he gave up 16 runs 13 earned, and in AA he gave up 2 runs but 0 earned. So could have been bad defense, but that is in part why ERA not best way to tell how a guy did. I mean he gets 2 outs, then an error extends the inning, every thing after is unearned runs. If the pitcher gives up hard hits over the next 10 batters, his ERA is not affect. However, if the first batter reaches on error, then pitcher gets 2 outs, and then gives up 10 hard hits, the ERA skyrockets. Really, they had a similar outing, but because when the error happened affects the ERA.

Depending on the cost I could see a trade for Alonzo or Goldschmidt, but find neither likely. If I had to pick I would trade for Goldschmidt, but I think they will go internal options. I could see Serverino getting a shot, Julien sliding over and giving Lee 2nd, or trying Miranda over there if he is healthy. It was not long ago we though high on him, but he clearly was not healthy last year. I think there are too many internal options to really go out and make a big move.

I agree looking to add a top end starter is always a good idea. There are a couple out there but Twins rarely go after top FA starters because of the cost and length. Normally those deals do not work out well for the team that signs them. If they can get Gray back on a 3 year deal that would be nice. In terms of Montas I would be willing to take a prove it deal for him as a depth piece but he is not a top end guy, just a depth guy. He has really only pitched 1 full season in his whole career. Paxton is cooked and also has been on injury list a lot in recent years. He strikes me as the type of guy the FO has gone after for depth that just never pans out. He had a good run from age 27 to 30 seasons, but since he has not been good. If the team thinks they can get him to learn to pitch as an older lefty he may be worth a spring training contract but I would not want to give him a MLB deal at this point. Jack Flaherty does not strike me as a guy with much upside. He is still young and could figure something out, but overall he had 1 decent year in 2019, and since has been injury prone with poor k/bb ratio and high FIP. Again he is a flier that we would hope can unlock something, but his recent track record is not good. Alek Manoah would be an interesting option. Not sure what Jays would be asking for him, as he still has 3 years of team control, had 2 good years, then last year everything fell apart. His hard hit rate skyrocketed last year, if the Twins think they can get him back to his first 2 years, he would be a good option. However, Jays would be selling low on him, and unless they think they cannot regain some of that I doubt they give up on him cheap. The Jays have several SP on contract and their top prospect is a SP so they may be more willing to deal. I would kick the tires on a deal, but be warry of the cost.

So far not a very good showing. I was not expecting a ton from any of them but not giving me much hope so far.

The money that is on books is not counting Gallo or Gray, but it does count Kepler and Polanco, so the 110 is counting those 2. If you cut them, after the buyouts you save like 19 mil, forget the exact buy outs. They can be filled with rookies/non-arb guys or cheaper FA. I agree with moving on from Polanco. Kepler I am more on fence about, but would not be surprised either way. Buck's contract so far is not looking good, but he is only as cheap as it was because of the risk he was. Had he not been injury prone, he would be earning over $30 mil. CC had a very down year, but he was hurt all year. Hopefully with a full offseason of rest he will be more productive next year. He sure was one of the best in the playoffs for us. My point is that the loss of potential broadcasting money will affect how they move forward and may force the buy outs of Polanco and Kepler, and passing on any FA signings and lean more on the young cheap guys. Not that it would be a bad thing, but could handcuff what they would want to do.

Many pitchers get DFA for not being effective despite their stuff. Look at us picking up Stewert. He was DFA'd a few times. I am not saying Moran will be DFA, the Twins do like his stuff, but fact is he has been around for 3 years, and has not been great. Eventually, you just need to decide how long you want to see if he figures it out for your team, or let someone else take the time. Pen guys bounce around all the time until they figure it out. They get chances because they have stuff, but always something missing.

Sorry, Yeah I missed him on the list, duh, he will be protected too. I was rushing when I read through list.

I read that sharing is only like 34%. I get the point, that it will not be a full $54 off the top, but even $27, or $20 is still not a drop in the bucket. The point still stands that this will affect their budget going forward if it is not figured out sooner than later.

Martin, Camargo, Severino, are really the only 3 I say they need to protect. Not saying others do not warrant discussion, but they are the only 3 that without a doubt would get taken in rule 5. They are all AAA players that there would be a team willing to put on MLB roster. There are a few other AAA guys on there, that should be talked about, but some of the other top prospects like Salas are less likely to get taken in rule 5. Of course there could be a Tigers type team, that took Badoo, from single A, but rarely do high A guys, outside pitchers, get taken in rule 5. Pitcher are more likely because you can stash in the pen for the year if needed. However, position players are harder to stash and will need to play more. I am sure they would risk losing several guys, but outside the 3 mentioned, many teams will take huge risk. That being said, Twins have 46 guys on 40 man roster right now. 6 on 60 day. I believe 7 are FA, so the crunch will take care of itself. There are a few clear DFA guys, Luplow, Stevenson, which frees up the 2 spots we would need to get those 3. There are a few other DFA candidates like Gordon, Moran, De Leon, a few other pitchers depending on how team feels. Polo and Kepler could get options declined, and Farmer could get decline arbitration. That frees up a lot of spots to fill in if needed. Overall, I do not see a lot of tough decisions based on 40 man roster moves.

Many will say who do we sign, any trades, who will replace player 'x'. However, the biggest question for the Twins will be who will be broadcasting their TV games, and how much money will they get from them. At this point the Twins have no deal in place. With all the issues with Bally, and not even knowing if they will be a broadcasting network next season there is a lot of questions. Reports are Twins were paid about $54 million this last season. Bally could barely do that. Will the team find a broadcast network that can pay near that? Will MLB take over the broadcast rights and if so how much will Twins get? Can Twins go to an all digital solo broadcast, and how much will it cost fans and how much will team make? The reason this question is so huge is when the teams budgets for the year, they count on that TV money. Losing out on $54 million is not a small thing. The payroll for Twins this year when all said and done was around 156 mil. Next year they have 92 on the books already, if they pick up the options of Kepler and Polanco. Arb salaries are being estimated around 19 mil, depending on who is retained. That bring projected, without trades or other FA signings, like Sonny Gray coming back, around $110. Even if we assume the team was at break even, if you cut $54 mil out of the budget they are operating at a loss by about 10 mil. If they were making some profit, then they may be at break even with current roster, again no new FA or trades, and we keep Kepler and Polo. Depending on how long this question goes on it will have to affect how the team makes decisions. I do not want to get into how the team could lose money because the owners are rich, they are a business and no business should expect to operate at a loss because they owner can afford it. Also, there is a lot more expenses than just player payroll. At this point, there does not appear to be a clear path as to who, or how games will be broadcasted next year. I assume the very local broadcast networks cannot swing $54 million for a season, so it will have to a cable network, to get the money from the cable providers for having the channel. But that is what led to Bally issues this year, was they wanted more from cable and satellite providers to carry Bally, to cover the fact they were losing money on their broadcasting deals. So even if a network steps up, how much can they offer? There was going to be a natural reduction in payroll this year, due to the younger guys stepping up to take over for vets anyways. But, Kepler played well enough his option would normally be picked up, but saving 10 million when he really has had 1.5 good seasons in his career, and rest just average to slightly below average at plate. He has always been good on defense, but he is getting older too. They may look to pick up the option in hope of trade, but he will not fetch much. Polanco already was on the fence to have his option picked up. He is still a decent player, but his injuries are mounting, and we have others that can take his place. If Lewis and Julien are healthy all year, Polanco should be on bench, assuming Julien is not DH. Even so, Lee should be making a debut, and Martin is there too. Really, until the team knows how much money, if any, comes in for broadcasting, it is hard to project a team budget. This is the biggest question for the team going into offseason.

I agree with the top 4 getting offers. I agree with the bottom 3 not getting an offer, save for maybe Gordon because they do like athletic guys that can play all over. Farmer is the biggest question. His number is a bit high for someone that will not start and will play mainly against lefties and late inning defense guy for Julien.

The strike outs are a huge issue. It is part of their game, but I hope going into next year they work a bit more on it. I know the team wants to hit the ball hard, because that generally is how to best score runs, and in the second half we scored a decent amount of runs, compared to first half. Rocco pointed out we walked a lot and look for "barrels" because getting on base and hit balling hard is best way to score runs. I have a couple of issues with the statement. One, walking is not the only way to get on base. I agree they should not just be looking to put the ball in play with weak contact to say, well I did not strike out. However, strike outs do nothing for the team, the only time you would take a strike out over putting the ball in play is when putting the ball in play results in a double play. Really, you can have the best of both worlds. How I took Rocco's comments was, we would rather go deep into count, getting either a walk or strike out, than put a ball in play early in count with weak contact. This makes sense, overall, but you can change your 2 strike approach, depending on the situation, to look to put more balls in play. Jeffers is one I noticed that with through the year. After 2 strikes he would choke up, as we did as kids, and look to hit the ball to right field, letting the fastball travel more. So with less than 2 strikes he was looking for a good pitch to hit and will take pitches he would not want to. Then after 2 strikes he would say well now lets try to not strike out. If more of the team would have that type of approach I think it would help. What will also help is the robo ump or at min the challenge system. Julien had so many strike outs on called third strikes on inside pitches. The box would say it was inside but he would get rung. Sometimes they were strikes too, but it gets frustrating when a guy takes a ball that is called a strike no matter the count. Of course for strike 3 versus ball 4 is the worst, but even for a strike 1, it changes how the rest of the at bat is played out.

I did not look up the scorecard for last night's game, but there was some called strikes well outside the zone against the Twins. The fact it was a 1 run game each called strike well outside the zone is an issue. I really hope we get at minimum a challenge system. Julien gets burned so much taking pitches in off the plate that get called for strikes, so often strike 3 too. That has to be so frustrating for a hitter, you know you take a ball and get called out, then you get to see that it was confirmed the ump was wrong, but you get nothing but a K for it. I am not saying the Twins did not get some in their favor, but as the score card indicates, more important ones went against the Twins. The first called strike against Lewis was huge with the bases loaded in game 3. Falling behind 1-0 instead of up 0-1 for a pitcher with bases loaded is huge. Even more so for Mr. Grand Slam.

I think people over value what Nick Anderson has done in his career. For Tampa Bay he had basically 38 really good innings over 2 seasons. He was decent this year with Braves, but still only 35 innings for the year. Pagan for us did 69 innings, with similar other numbers. I mean in Nick Anderson's career he has only pitched only 122 innings total. Sure, he had an amazing 38 innings over 2 seasons for Tampa Bay, but outside of that he is a good, not great, late inning guy.

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star. I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year. After 30 they tend to trend down. This year he had crazy hot April, an above average July, and all-star level September, but every other month was well below replacement level. He may have some hot streaks, but a rising star he is not, nor will he. He is too old to be a rising star, at best he is a guy that can get on a hot streak, but I bet there is about 20 to 25 teams that would not even have him on their 40 man. The Twins included.

The youth got you to the post season, and sadly they have not stepped up in the post season. Lewis did in first round, but Astros clearly have a plan right now for him, and that is throw outside with pitches moving off the zone. I have not had a chance to watch every at bat, because of work, but we knew if the kids struggled we would be in trouble. Still got one more loss this round, hopefully we can rally today put on a good showing and return to Houston Friday. The amount of men left on base has been crazy and the amount of double plays. Hopefully, the guys can figure out what Houston's plan for them have been and make the adjustments.

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format. Personally, I find the time off for the higher seeds can hurt them. Baseball has always been about who is hot, and taking time off can hurt that. One team I point at a ton for this is the 2007 Rockies. No one expected them to even make the playoffs, until they went crazy run in September going 20-8 with a win in October as well. They were hot as hot could be. They swept the division round, then the championship round. The Red Sox went to 7 game in the ALCS and Rockies just sat and waited. The Red Sox won the last 3 games of the ALCS coming back from down 3-1 to get into the series and quickly swept the Rockies. The Rockies clearly lost the momentum they had with the long time off and Red Sox where on a hot streak. This is similar to the wild card round. The teams with the bye sit for 5 days after end of season, where the winner of the wild card rounds had at least 2 tense games.

If Buck could play CF and we could count on him playing each game, he would be an upgrade in the OF, however, clearly he cannot. He could get slotted in the 9 hole, play top defense and we hope for best on offense, similar to Taylor. He could be a difference maker at the plate at any time, but you cannot count him to be consistent right now.

When you look at the 81 trades, most are not even remembered because very minor. I find there was more good trades versus bad trades. You can judge some trades for what we ultimately got in return versus what we gave up, but at the time they may have been good trades, just injures did not work out. I think the smaller trades of Farmer and Taylor this year was huge, and did not give up much to get. I can understand why people do not like some of the trades, and the original post talk about lack of direction. What I find about some of the trades is they did seem to be moves just to make moves, more so early on. I would disagree that the Maeda trade was bad. Yes, he missed a full year and half basically, but he helped in 2020 and 2023 a lot. If you look just at innings pitched, sure they are not far from each other, but Madea was starter innings and Gratoral was pen innings. Who would have started for Maeda when he was healthy? Looking at other moves made or players kept is important just as much as who was sent away. The Mahle trade, turned out to be terrible, but the guys we sent away were far down our depth chart and we would have wanted to move them eventually anyways to open up 40 man roster space.

With series tied 1-1 we will have a game 4. I believe Dusty will decide who starts game 4 depending on outcome of game 3. If the Twins win game 3, I bet Dusty sends Verlander out for game 4 on short rest, then if needed game 5 Valdez on full rest. If Twins lose game 3, I bet he runs J.P. France out for game 4, then Verlander, if needed on full rest for game 5, with Valdez the early pen move if Verlander struggles at all. I believe this because if you are in an elimination game, Dusty will go with what he thinks is his best chance to win, but if he has a game in hand he will want to rest Verlander, to make sure he has full rest, and then he both his best pitchers for game 5 if needed. Also, it set up his starters for next round if Astros can end it in 4 without using Verlander again, but if they could get knocked out you need your best, even on short rest. This shows how big game 3 is for Twins. If we can win it will have Astros on heels, and we seen how some managers will, at times, overmanage in elimination games.

I heard on a broadcast the other day that we actually have handled lefties well over the last couple months. Yesterdays game showed the platoon can be huge. Farmer is only on the team at this point to hit lefties and be defense replacement if needed. He hit a 2 run HR. Salano is there to hit lefties, he got a great base hit in his third at bat. Castro, actually hits rights better, but he get the start over the Wallner because of the lefty and he gets a big hit in front of Farmers HR. 2 wins of the 3 in the post season has been because of what we did against left handed guys.

I am all for this. He makes so much sense over Ryan. I talk about how Ryan should be game 3 in wild card round because of how well he pitched at home compared to the road. Ober has earned this and I was worried about Ryan on road in a hitter park. Not that Ober will not give up a HR, but my guess they will have a quick hook for him and go to Maeda if need be.