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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. If you can bring Sano in on a minor league deal why not. Worst case he gets released and you are not out anything. Best case, he is healthy not out of shape and has some kind of resurgence. You do not need to commit a roster spot to him. There are some in his situation that did this later in their careers and had a year or two of great baseball. Hicks I would be skeptical on. He is aging, he had a surge over short period of time, but as stated he had long stretch of bad ball before that. I am not bringing him on anything than a minor league deal invite to spring. Odo, similar a minor league deal invite to spring to see if healthy and can help. I do not bring him in on major league roster because he could be cooked.
  2. Players get sent to AFL for different reasons. Not all are sent because they are looking to be the next big prospects. Some are sent to give more time because of injuries during season, or because FO wants to see them play a little more against what normally will be higher comp. Take Sabato for example, the FO has to decide to add him to 40 man or not. The numbers he puts up is not going make or break that decision, but giving him time with other coaches and see how he does may affect that. Consetti is a guy that tore up lower minors, but he is a little old for prospect status based on level he was playing, but being his main position is catcher, most likely they want him to work on his defense there and see if he can make jump to AA and possibly up to AAA by end of next season. Kala’i Rosario is the bigger prospect, still only 21 and rising up minors. Get him some time with older players to hopefully build off of. The pitchers, not sure as none of them are really considered top guys in our system so I am sure each have a reason.
  3. I do not believe in a "playoff hitter" idea. I agree that pitching is different, each pitch is so much bigger, and if you do not hit your pitch that will be the difference normally. Some guys do seem to step up in the playoffs, and maybe some do shrink in the moment, but just having that 1 hit sometimes can make the difference a series, even if you go 0 for the rest that one player may have made the difference. Yes, do we want a line up full of Altuve, CC, Alverez, type hitters that seem to always come up big, of course. However, that just is not going to happen.
  4. Luplow will be non-tendered. Acala I assume will be offered contract. Gordon is the real question. Castro basically took his spot last year, the super utility guy, but being Castro is switch hitter and better on defense, Castro has more value than Gordon in my opinion. Yes, Gordon has shown some flashes, and I do think they will offer him a contract, but his roster spot is not safe.
  5. I believe the top 4 on the rule 5 list should be added, if we do not add Serverino he will get drafted by someone. Unless you feel he just does not add enough value to your MLB roster, someone will take him no doubt. He is still young, at AAA was a top international kid years ago. No way will he pass through rule 5. The other 4 all could be taken, but really not a ton of risk of losing any of them as they are mostly just depth guys that will only see playing time at MLB if there are injuries, or they just go on crazy hot run.
  6. Generally that is what happens with FA is they are normally overpaid for their production. Really, the question is would we have someone better? Maybe we could have tried to sign someone else, but I doubt we make playoffs if he is not on the team.
  7. I would not forget about Miranda, but I would not count on him coming back either.
  8. A whole lot to unpack in this article. It really is 2 articles, if not more, in 1. First, the who will get DFA. Of the 9 listed, I believe Stevenson will be higher up on the list than the writer thinks. He is not young, only made the MLB roster as a defense and base stealing gun. Unless you think you will want him to actually play meaningful innings in outfield you do not keep him on the roster. My guess he gets DFA along with Luplow. De Leon I also agree is out the door. Those 3 free up enough room to get the locks of E-Rod, Martin, Carmango and Servrino, all locks, and room to add 1 more, unless they want to sit at 39 for awhile, like having room to draft in rule 5. The next is who else should get added to 40 man, and who would you cut. It is much easier to expose someone to rule 5 draft than DFA. The reason is the rules on how they move on. Position players are rarely taken in rule 5, unless they are near MLB players, or taken by clearly rebuilding teams that will take poor play for a year. That could make Sabato or Salas, but not that likely. Oliver will not get taken by anyone, unless they really believe in him because he would be making the jump from A ball and 22. The remaining on the list are all guys that would be more likely to be taken. Laweryson the most likely he is typical type that gets taken in rule 5, a pen arm that if you like his stuff enough could be stashed in the pen. Twins will need to decide do they like him or another pitcher on the list for DFA. Keeping in mind the DFA does not have to be on 40 man roster if they pass waivers and become FA. If they do get taken off waivers, then just need to be on 40 man but can be in minors, if they have options. Keirsey, Prato, Helman, and Williams all would be options to take in a rule 5. They are of age and experience that jump to MLB will not be too big for them. None will be huge losses though for us. None are super high prospects and outside of Williams they all seem to play similar rolls. The question for the Twins is who do they value more, any of them or who they would need to cut, and compare that to how likely will you lose them? I would say Balazovic would get snatched up quickly on waivers. Much quicker than any team would take the reaming possible rule 5 guys. Would anyone really be that upset to lose any of the remaining guys to rule 5? The only way any of them really see time next year with Twins is if we have several injuries.
  9. I am always for trading guys at peak value. I see Jeffers staying, unless they are blown away by a deal. I would not shop him, but I would not ignore phone calls. In terms of Larnach or Castro, I do not see either being that high in value. Yes, Castro coming off great season overall, but not that he is so valuable a team will overpay for him. I mean any team could have had him last year and passed. If he repeats next season then I think he value skyrockets. Larnach may be at his peak, but that is still low. He is bat first corner OF guy that has shown little ability to hit offspeed or against lefties. He is a platoon guy that is streaky at best. Not many teams will be looking for someone like him.
  10. I see no reason to speculate on what someone else will do in this situation. Unless someone here personally knows Levine and has talked with him about how he makes decisions for himself. We do not know what drives his decision making. If he is offered a position and takes it, it is because he felt it was best for him.
  11. They tried before and failed because cable would not pick them up, because Fox sports forced the issue. Now that they are out it could be done, but how much can they really make? Without knowing the Wolves and Wild contracts with Bally they would be hard to bring in, more likely they would need to be a full on partner, which leads to issues too, being so much overlap in games, they would need to have a second channel, like what Bally has. In terms of U of M, they have a network and will not be allowed to have games, even for minor sports, broadcast most likely outside the big 10 network. As for smaller schools, sure they would be willing to sell TV rights, but how much would the Twins be willing to pay for them? The biggest issue is outside the live events how much will they get people to watch, and how much ad space can they sell. Will they get what they need from tv providers to pay for the channel. I personally see the future of sports cast being solo routes with pay for the season streaming options. Before we were blacked out because of local broadcast rights, but my guess unless a local broadcast is going to pay huge, teams will make more if someone pays 80 to 100 bucks for a full season streaming through MLB or other apps. Not sure how many on average numbers from 2023, but in 2021 they were way down, but my guess if someone bought a full season from start, even if team is doing bad and you stop watching by end of year they still got the money. So for math purpose lets say 125K buy a full season package at 100 bucks. That is 12.5 million. Much less than what they got paid from Bally, but if you also sell advertising my guess they would make much more. I could be wrong. I do not think the Twins and other local sports will invest in trying to build a network right now. Too much question in the future of cable/dish and being Twins failed once before will make them pause.
  12. He only threw 8 innings in AA really that was High A numbers. He averaged under 4 innings a start. My guess they are working him along slowly based on age, and velo TJ is not unlikely in his future if they over work him. His ERA was good, but his WHIP was above his career average. In high A he gave up 16 runs 13 earned, and in AA he gave up 2 runs but 0 earned. So could have been bad defense, but that is in part why ERA not best way to tell how a guy did. I mean he gets 2 outs, then an error extends the inning, every thing after is unearned runs. If the pitcher gives up hard hits over the next 10 batters, his ERA is not affect. However, if the first batter reaches on error, then pitcher gets 2 outs, and then gives up 10 hard hits, the ERA skyrockets. Really, they had a similar outing, but because when the error happened affects the ERA.
  13. Depending on the cost I could see a trade for Alonzo or Goldschmidt, but find neither likely. If I had to pick I would trade for Goldschmidt, but I think they will go internal options. I could see Serverino getting a shot, Julien sliding over and giving Lee 2nd, or trying Miranda over there if he is healthy. It was not long ago we though high on him, but he clearly was not healthy last year. I think there are too many internal options to really go out and make a big move.
  14. I agree looking to add a top end starter is always a good idea. There are a couple out there but Twins rarely go after top FA starters because of the cost and length. Normally those deals do not work out well for the team that signs them. If they can get Gray back on a 3 year deal that would be nice. In terms of Montas I would be willing to take a prove it deal for him as a depth piece but he is not a top end guy, just a depth guy. He has really only pitched 1 full season in his whole career. Paxton is cooked and also has been on injury list a lot in recent years. He strikes me as the type of guy the FO has gone after for depth that just never pans out. He had a good run from age 27 to 30 seasons, but since he has not been good. If the team thinks they can get him to learn to pitch as an older lefty he may be worth a spring training contract but I would not want to give him a MLB deal at this point. Jack Flaherty does not strike me as a guy with much upside. He is still young and could figure something out, but overall he had 1 decent year in 2019, and since has been injury prone with poor k/bb ratio and high FIP. Again he is a flier that we would hope can unlock something, but his recent track record is not good. Alek Manoah would be an interesting option. Not sure what Jays would be asking for him, as he still has 3 years of team control, had 2 good years, then last year everything fell apart. His hard hit rate skyrocketed last year, if the Twins think they can get him back to his first 2 years, he would be a good option. However, Jays would be selling low on him, and unless they think they cannot regain some of that I doubt they give up on him cheap. The Jays have several SP on contract and their top prospect is a SP so they may be more willing to deal. I would kick the tires on a deal, but be warry of the cost.
  15. So far not a very good showing. I was not expecting a ton from any of them but not giving me much hope so far.
  16. The money that is on books is not counting Gallo or Gray, but it does count Kepler and Polanco, so the 110 is counting those 2. If you cut them, after the buyouts you save like 19 mil, forget the exact buy outs. They can be filled with rookies/non-arb guys or cheaper FA. I agree with moving on from Polanco. Kepler I am more on fence about, but would not be surprised either way. Buck's contract so far is not looking good, but he is only as cheap as it was because of the risk he was. Had he not been injury prone, he would be earning over $30 mil. CC had a very down year, but he was hurt all year. Hopefully with a full offseason of rest he will be more productive next year. He sure was one of the best in the playoffs for us. My point is that the loss of potential broadcasting money will affect how they move forward and may force the buy outs of Polanco and Kepler, and passing on any FA signings and lean more on the young cheap guys. Not that it would be a bad thing, but could handcuff what they would want to do.
  17. Many pitchers get DFA for not being effective despite their stuff. Look at us picking up Stewert. He was DFA'd a few times. I am not saying Moran will be DFA, the Twins do like his stuff, but fact is he has been around for 3 years, and has not been great. Eventually, you just need to decide how long you want to see if he figures it out for your team, or let someone else take the time. Pen guys bounce around all the time until they figure it out. They get chances because they have stuff, but always something missing.
  18. Sorry, Yeah I missed him on the list, duh, he will be protected too. I was rushing when I read through list.
  19. I read that sharing is only like 34%. I get the point, that it will not be a full $54 off the top, but even $27, or $20 is still not a drop in the bucket. The point still stands that this will affect their budget going forward if it is not figured out sooner than later.
  20. Martin, Camargo, Severino, are really the only 3 I say they need to protect. Not saying others do not warrant discussion, but they are the only 3 that without a doubt would get taken in rule 5. They are all AAA players that there would be a team willing to put on MLB roster. There are a few other AAA guys on there, that should be talked about, but some of the other top prospects like Salas are less likely to get taken in rule 5. Of course there could be a Tigers type team, that took Badoo, from single A, but rarely do high A guys, outside pitchers, get taken in rule 5. Pitcher are more likely because you can stash in the pen for the year if needed. However, position players are harder to stash and will need to play more. I am sure they would risk losing several guys, but outside the 3 mentioned, many teams will take huge risk. That being said, Twins have 46 guys on 40 man roster right now. 6 on 60 day. I believe 7 are FA, so the crunch will take care of itself. There are a few clear DFA guys, Luplow, Stevenson, which frees up the 2 spots we would need to get those 3. There are a few other DFA candidates like Gordon, Moran, De Leon, a few other pitchers depending on how team feels. Polo and Kepler could get options declined, and Farmer could get decline arbitration. That frees up a lot of spots to fill in if needed. Overall, I do not see a lot of tough decisions based on 40 man roster moves.
  21. Many will say who do we sign, any trades, who will replace player 'x'. However, the biggest question for the Twins will be who will be broadcasting their TV games, and how much money will they get from them. At this point the Twins have no deal in place. With all the issues with Bally, and not even knowing if they will be a broadcasting network next season there is a lot of questions. Reports are Twins were paid about $54 million this last season. Bally could barely do that. Will the team find a broadcast network that can pay near that? Will MLB take over the broadcast rights and if so how much will Twins get? Can Twins go to an all digital solo broadcast, and how much will it cost fans and how much will team make? The reason this question is so huge is when the teams budgets for the year, they count on that TV money. Losing out on $54 million is not a small thing. The payroll for Twins this year when all said and done was around 156 mil. Next year they have 92 on the books already, if they pick up the options of Kepler and Polanco. Arb salaries are being estimated around 19 mil, depending on who is retained. That bring projected, without trades or other FA signings, like Sonny Gray coming back, around $110. Even if we assume the team was at break even, if you cut $54 mil out of the budget they are operating at a loss by about 10 mil. If they were making some profit, then they may be at break even with current roster, again no new FA or trades, and we keep Kepler and Polo. Depending on how long this question goes on it will have to affect how the team makes decisions. I do not want to get into how the team could lose money because the owners are rich, they are a business and no business should expect to operate at a loss because they owner can afford it. Also, there is a lot more expenses than just player payroll. At this point, there does not appear to be a clear path as to who, or how games will be broadcasted next year. I assume the very local broadcast networks cannot swing $54 million for a season, so it will have to a cable network, to get the money from the cable providers for having the channel. But that is what led to Bally issues this year, was they wanted more from cable and satellite providers to carry Bally, to cover the fact they were losing money on their broadcasting deals. So even if a network steps up, how much can they offer? There was going to be a natural reduction in payroll this year, due to the younger guys stepping up to take over for vets anyways. But, Kepler played well enough his option would normally be picked up, but saving 10 million when he really has had 1.5 good seasons in his career, and rest just average to slightly below average at plate. He has always been good on defense, but he is getting older too. They may look to pick up the option in hope of trade, but he will not fetch much. Polanco already was on the fence to have his option picked up. He is still a decent player, but his injuries are mounting, and we have others that can take his place. If Lewis and Julien are healthy all year, Polanco should be on bench, assuming Julien is not DH. Even so, Lee should be making a debut, and Martin is there too. Really, until the team knows how much money, if any, comes in for broadcasting, it is hard to project a team budget. This is the biggest question for the team going into offseason.
  22. I agree with the top 4 getting offers. I agree with the bottom 3 not getting an offer, save for maybe Gordon because they do like athletic guys that can play all over. Farmer is the biggest question. His number is a bit high for someone that will not start and will play mainly against lefties and late inning defense guy for Julien.
  23. The strike outs are a huge issue. It is part of their game, but I hope going into next year they work a bit more on it. I know the team wants to hit the ball hard, because that generally is how to best score runs, and in the second half we scored a decent amount of runs, compared to first half. Rocco pointed out we walked a lot and look for "barrels" because getting on base and hit balling hard is best way to score runs. I have a couple of issues with the statement. One, walking is not the only way to get on base. I agree they should not just be looking to put the ball in play with weak contact to say, well I did not strike out. However, strike outs do nothing for the team, the only time you would take a strike out over putting the ball in play is when putting the ball in play results in a double play. Really, you can have the best of both worlds. How I took Rocco's comments was, we would rather go deep into count, getting either a walk or strike out, than put a ball in play early in count with weak contact. This makes sense, overall, but you can change your 2 strike approach, depending on the situation, to look to put more balls in play. Jeffers is one I noticed that with through the year. After 2 strikes he would choke up, as we did as kids, and look to hit the ball to right field, letting the fastball travel more. So with less than 2 strikes he was looking for a good pitch to hit and will take pitches he would not want to. Then after 2 strikes he would say well now lets try to not strike out. If more of the team would have that type of approach I think it would help. What will also help is the robo ump or at min the challenge system. Julien had so many strike outs on called third strikes on inside pitches. The box would say it was inside but he would get rung. Sometimes they were strikes too, but it gets frustrating when a guy takes a ball that is called a strike no matter the count. Of course for strike 3 versus ball 4 is the worst, but even for a strike 1, it changes how the rest of the at bat is played out.
  24. I did not look up the scorecard for last night's game, but there was some called strikes well outside the zone against the Twins. The fact it was a 1 run game each called strike well outside the zone is an issue. I really hope we get at minimum a challenge system. Julien gets burned so much taking pitches in off the plate that get called for strikes, so often strike 3 too. That has to be so frustrating for a hitter, you know you take a ball and get called out, then you get to see that it was confirmed the ump was wrong, but you get nothing but a K for it. I am not saying the Twins did not get some in their favor, but as the score card indicates, more important ones went against the Twins. The first called strike against Lewis was huge with the bases loaded in game 3. Falling behind 1-0 instead of up 0-1 for a pitcher with bases loaded is huge. Even more so for Mr. Grand Slam.
  25. I think people over value what Nick Anderson has done in his career. For Tampa Bay he had basically 38 really good innings over 2 seasons. He was decent this year with Braves, but still only 35 innings for the year. Pagan for us did 69 innings, with similar other numbers. I mean in Nick Anderson's career he has only pitched only 122 innings total. Sure, he had an amazing 38 innings over 2 seasons for Tampa Bay, but outside of that he is a good, not great, late inning guy.
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