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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I am not convinced Texas makes the playoffs. If they do, they could be tough matchup by throwing all those lefties at us. However, they have been streaky this year. Also, their offense is top heavy now, with the rest of the line up really holding them back at the bottom now. If they get on a hot streak again, they will be a tough out no matter who faces them though. They did have one of the top teams for first half so they will not be an easy out, but we did have some good comebacks against their pen this year.
  2. Trov

    Royce Lewis: ROY?

    Trov commented on Obie's blog entry in Blog Obie

    You bring up the question, do you look at overall numbers for the year, or what numbers they put up during the time they did play and look to extrapolate out? I think the voters generally look at overall year numbers. Take De La Cruz from Reds for example. he lit the baseball world on fire when he first came up in June, and still did okay in July, for about 50 games. However last 40 plus games he has been terrible overall. Had he got injured after June or early July missing the rest of the season, do you reward what he did in the 30 to 40 games where he looked like MVP? Yes, Lewis has played more, he will play just over 1/3 of the season. Gunner Henderson will play nearly 4/5 of the season. Lewis is on pace should he have played the full year, to have like a 7 or 8 WAR, well beyond Henderson, but fact is Henderson WAR is around a 6 and Lewis is not likely to pass 3. When playing Lewis is looking to be the better overall player and contribute more than Henderson, but in this year, Henderson has given more to his team, because he has played. Personally, I think Lewis should finish second behind Henderson.
  3. Trov

    Royce Lewis: ROY?

    Trov commented on Obie's blog entry in Blog Obie

    If Lewis had a full year he would be looking at the front runner. Jung was running away with it, until he got hurt. Then Henderson took a huge lead, helping lead a team most thought had no chance of making playoffs, to possibly 2nd best record in baseball at end of season. Lewis has been setting records and hopefully will be the better player, but for this season it should go to Henderson. He is also playing good defense at SS. Just think that Baltimore also has the top prospect and possible ROY next year too.
  4. Trov
    International pitching prospects are very rare generally. They sometimes develop, but if you look at the top international guys, very few are signed as pitchers. Trying to project a 16 or 17 year old pitcher is never going to be easy. Even highly talked about HS pitchers still are a high miss rate. In terms of the position players, E-Rod is a top guy. The rest of the international guys are really too young to tell what we got from them. Most are signed at 16 or 17 so takes at least a couple of years to even make full season ball normally.
  5. Trov
    I would not bet even money, but for right odds. My main point is that they are in an interesting situation, that they could push themselves into the picture because of who they play and who else plays each other. Unlike Cleveland who does not play us, they cannot control most of their own fate. However, Yankees do have a chance to control most of their own fate. It will take an insane run, but they can force the issue. I think it unlikely, but if Cleveland still had 6 games against us we would be talking about that situation more.
  6. Trov
    Defensive metrics grade Bellinger out as average CF right now, with having him negative runs saved. He used to be very good out there I would agree, but clearly over the last three years he has regressed in that area. Could he regain it, maybe, but just because he was very good in his early 20's does not mean he still is now. The numbers reflect major regression over last few years. If we could sign him I would not say do not play him out there, but you are mainly going to be signing for his offense not his defense at this point. I am also worried he may go back to what he did 2 years prior over what he did this year with Cubs. If he would not have been down right terrible his age 25 and 26 seasons he would up for one of biggest contracts in game. He is going to ask for that, pointing to past MVP and what he did this year, but 2 years of terrible play will hurt his offers. I am sure some team will give him a like a 7 or 8 year deal with opt out after 3 to see if he plays well enough to try and cash in again at age 31 free agent.
  7. Trov
    It is not too early to talk on here, but too early for FO to worry right now. I would not go Bellinger, he will be costly and is really not a CF, he is below average defense there. I would not look to move Lewis there, not because he got injured, but because he has hardly played there, he is doing just fine at 3rd, and he made a statement that suggests he will not be a good defender there in future. He made statement that the injury was not worth the effort on the play. Which in hindsight that is true, but if he is out there thinking should I try to catch this ball, will I get hurt, that will make him hesitate and that will not be good for him or the team. I would bring in someone like Taylor, if not bring him back on a 1 year cheap deal, then see if Buck can do it, if not we see if Martin can build on what he did this year in AAA and similar to what we did with rookies this year, transition him in as year goes on. You can always make trades from out infield depth too.
  8. Trov
    In terms of drafting it is still a crap shoot. Many teams miss, and sometimes number 1 picks get missed. When you are drafting high school kids you have no clue how will they develop into adulthood. With college kids you do not know if they will adjust to wood bats, and to facing top pitching day in and day out. You can get an idea but there has and will always be flops in drafts, and hidden gems that rise to the top. Sometimes it is injuries that hurt guys at the top, and sometimes the gems are found because they did not come from big areas that got much exposure. Sometimes you draft a guy because he has the basics but you want to hope he improves in other areas, and they just never do.
  9. Trov
    If the Yankees get on a hot run, they actually have a good chance of making the playoffs as the last wild card. They have 6 games against the Blue Jays, and the Rangers and Mariners play each other 7 times. If the Yankees win 5 or 6 against the Blue Jays, they will be in the thick of it. They only need to catch the Blue Jays, and either of the Rangers or Mariners, so being they play each other one has to lose. It is not likely, but they are hot right now and nothing would shock me less than the Yankees going on a hot streak to end the season, face us in the first round and sweep us. Of course if the Yankees lose even 2 against the Blue Jays that will make it very difficult to catch them, and even if they do win all 6 they still will need wins against Diamondbacks and Royals.
  10. Trov
    He looks like a slow climber in the system, but does seem to be growing as seasons go on. Last year he was pretty even across the season, outside a hot May. They still moved him up to high A. This year he started off a little hot, then leveled off a bit, with similar numbers to last year. Second of this year though he has hit for more power and getting on base at higher clip. He is known to be a solid defender overall, and will need to improve his bat to be a MLB player. My guess he is still at least 3 to 4 years from majors, barring huge jumps next year or year after. He is still in year 20 season so even if it took 4 years he could still put up reasonable career.
  11. Trov
    This was clearly a win win for both sides who dealt from positions of depth. Miami has had some injuries and regression of other starters but they still have a lot of depth there. We clearly have depth at infield and going into next season we will need to figure out what to do with some more that we have. This is not a one team one a trade or lost it, and really that is what teams want.
  12. Trov
    Severino will be 24 next season, he is nearly 24 now. Severino is not someone we should be banking on, Yes, the power numbers are good, but his K-rate is very high for a minor league guy. Those numbers normally go up at MLB level, not lower. This year the K-rate for Severino is 32%, up from his career of about 25%. To compare, Sano K rate in minors was about 23 to 25%, which went up to 65% at Majors over career. Joey Gallo, had a 35% K rate in minors, and up to 38% at majors, so about the same there. I have compared him a bit to CES minor league K rate was 25%, only 22% at AAA this year, with 28% at MLB so far this year. As much as it would be nice to see those HR convert to MLB level, I am very worried he will be a huge strike out rate that is near Gallo or Sano levels at MLB.
  13. Trov
    I am aware of the list, but my question who on it would you have went after? Can you point to some old post during offseason where you say, I hope they sign x player and you were right in that signing that they would have been better? It is easy to say we should have upgraded, but harder to point to who was the upgrade at the time? I remember in 2018, people were big on the Addison Reed signing, because he was coming off a few good seasons with Mets, still only 29 at the time. He turned out to be a terrible signing for us, and despite he had a 2 year deal we dropped him and he never pitched in majors again. Pen guys are volatile and hard to predict, even when you think have good ones they turn very quickly, and sometimes turn back very quickly. Mainly because they get very few chances to show being good.
  14. Trov
    Kepler has a career split of pretty even both sides. He generally has better batting average against lefties, but less power, not a ton though. If you go back to say David Ortiz, his first full year with Twins, he had reverse split, then more even the next year, followed by a full platoon in his last year with Twins. That generally carried through most of the rest of his career, but he still had 817 OPS against lefties. It is odd his crushed lefties his first full year, then regressed. There has been some lefties that do very well against lefties, and Julien generally seems like one that should fit that trend, because he is willing to work counts, go other way, but this year has not been good. When looking at some historical Twins every day lefties over the years, most have platoon splits, but some still could hold their own, the more so greats. The guys that were every day players that were never all-stars or the like really struggled. Really that is the difference between an every day stick it out hitter, versus the full platoon guy. The team needs to decide who they are at some point, and decide when to make moves. Personally, if the hitter will have at least 1 more at bat, and the other team is out of lefties, I would leave them in, depending on the situation overall. I do not agree that a single at bat will make any difference, as clearly full adjustments need to be made, and you will not learn much from one at bat but a full effort to make changes in the off-season now will need to be done.
  15. Trov
    The issue will be if the team writes him off as a platoon player or not. I feel like some teams just write off lefties as not being able to hit them, and so they never give them a chance. I get late in games using the platoon stuff, but there was games where the other team used the opener and brought in a lefty in 2nd inning causing the pinch hit move before a single at bat, then there is the righty that comes in later to face the new hitter. Can Julien fix his issue, maybe, but unless he is given a chance we will never know.
  16. Trov
    Personally, I think it took SWR a bit to adjust to the robo ump. He also may have been dealing with a little injury because he did miss some time, then came back doing pretty well overall.
  17. Trov
    The main reason for this is generally if they are good enough they will be up at the big league club before they can set the records. Normally, if they are young enough they lack the power, and by the time they are old enough to hit that many HR they will get up to MLB club. Severino though is in an interesting boat because he was at one point a top guy, but fell off a ton, but now coming into power. However, his K rate is a little too high to suggest he will be anything that Joey Gallo at MLB level if he ever gets there.
  18. Trov
    Yunior Severino may be playing himself into a spot with MLB team next year. He was a top international guy that appears had injuries much of his career. He is still young, going to be 24 next season, and has put up impressive HR numbers last 2 years. He does not appear to be great at defense, but has played 3rd, 2nd, and 1st. He is a switch hitter with power from both sides, and really no clear drop off in minors from either side. If he was a college drafted kid we would have him much higher on prospect rankings I think, but because he had several years as a teenager of subpar seasons we have him lower on the lists. I do not think he will be elite, but being he is switch hitter that will help him. He does have a lot of swing and miss, which is concern. He strikes out at about 32% clip, and walks at about 10% clip. That is a bit high of rate because it is in minors and normally goes up into majors. However, if he can lower it a bit, I think he should be considered as a guy they can use next year. Not super high on him, and not expecting a ton, but he is putting up OPS over .900 last 2 years in the minors.
  19. Trov
    Shop Larnach, there may be a team that is willing to trade some possible pen guys for him. He has little trade value though that is the problem. We cannot just have him up at the MLB level learning to hit off speed pitches. If he cannot learn to do that, he has no value at majors. If a team is willing to work with him and we can get something in return, make the move. If not, he will most likely get DFA some time next year anyways.
  20. Trov
    Who has been available during that time that you would have signed or traded for? If you cannot point to a clear signing that was missed on, or an easy trade that was not made it is hard to say they failed. When you look at the top WAR relief guys from last year, most are no where near what they were. Signing pen guys are a crap shoot. One of our best relief guys was Brock Stewart, prior to his injury. No one would have ever thought that because he has never been good. Relief guys are so hard to predict overall from year to year, or even month to month or week to week. Just look at Jax, he has been elite for weeks, then a train wreck for weeks. Taylor Rogers last year first half he was amazing, since he has been not very good. Hader for Padres last year was terrible after he was traded, this year back to elite.
  21. Trov
    There is a reason to trade for a solid middle inning arm(or two) at the deadline. One, you do not know if they would have been any better than what we had, look at some of the moves we have made over the years for guys that either get injured right away (Sam Dyson) or regress right away (Lopez). Sure, it is worth trying sometimes, but our farm system was already considered getting thin, and it would have cost more prospects. Prospects like Cano who has turned out better than the guy we traded for. It would could lead to DFA some guys that turn out to be better than who we bring in. We do not know what teams were asking for some of the guys. I did a forum the other day pointing out the guys moved and how only a couple have been that much better than the player they would have stepped in for. I agree the pen is not the best, and doing worse as the season moves on. But to continue to buy rental pen arms at trade deadline will come back to haunt down the road. I mean, what if the asking price for one of those arms was Lee, would you do it because we needed the pen arm?
  22. Trov
    I have always like Polanco, but based on his age, and our younger ready to go prospects it is a tough decision. Personally, I think they pick him up. They shop him around during offseason, if nothing comes from that, we see what he has and what the prospects are doing. If the prospects struggle we run with Polanco, if they force the hand, we use Polanco as more of bench guy. I do not think we can count on Polanco for a full season at this point in his career. However, when he is hot, he can carry a team being a switch hitter with enough power from both sides to be a threat. He is generally a tough out and puts together long at bats. I still like him, and would say for 9.5 really, being they have to pay 1 mil to not keep him, he is worth holding onto as someone that can play in short spurts very well.
  23. Trov
    Unless Wallner can show he can start hitting the fastball in the zone again, he will, and should be replaced for playoff roster. The value Wallner brings is simply his offense. His defense is not good. I have seen worse and he has a good arm, but he has made poor decisions on his throws at times, and he does not look smooth in the outfield at all. Yes, at any moment he could drive a HR, but he is becoming Gallo, but without the defense Gallo can provide. Assuming Taylor comes back, he will start CF, and Castro would most likely start LF. Leaving Wallner as a bench option. However, he would be used as a pinch hitter against a righty hoping he launches one. I would rather fill that bench roll with someone like Gordon, if he is healthy and can run, because he has better defense, can fill more positions, and can be used as a pinch runner if needed. No he does not have the power of Wallner, but right now Wallner doing terrible. He needs to make the adjustments and the playoffs are not the time to figure that out. If playoffs started today, he would be on roster, but with health to Taylor, Gordon or Gallo, Wallner will be on outside looking in for now.
  24. Trov
    Yes, if Gordon can run he would be considered as he fits the pinch runner, can play many positions situation. He also knows how to bunt, which the team has shown they are willing to do this year in certain situations. I do feel this bench is much better built for playoffs. Castro can pinch run, fill in on defense wherever, and can do the small things. Just about everybody can do something helpful overall.
  25. Trov
    I personally would not want a guy who was not used to pen coming into playoffs after rehab to try and pitch important innings in playoffs.
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