Recency Bias

The free agent and trade moves by the Twins this off-season have made at best a minimal improvement to a 103 loss team. Even if the development of the young players goes well and the starting pitchers are less awful than last year I'm not all that confident that it will result in enough wins to get the Twins out of last place in MLB. If the records of other poor teams are similar to last year it would take an improvement of 10 wins to be able to say the Twins aren't the worst team in baseball (9 additional wins last season would have tied the Twins for the worst record). 

Basically only 2 players met or exceeded expectations last year. I don't expect that to happen this year, and I'm looking forward to the young position players taking the next step.

Or it means expectations were too high on some players and they should be adjusted down going forward.

Personally, I think 7 players met or exceeded expectations: Dozier, Ervin Santana, Eduardo Nunez, Suzuki, Polanco, Kepler, and Rosario. Sano was a little disappointing but he wasn't that far off the mark offensively, and he was set up to fail defensively by mismanagement. You could probably even throw Kintzler and Pressley in that list.

Yes, some of those players had lower expectations, but that's the roster we had and are bringing back (sans Nunez, and I consider Suzuki/Castro almost a wash). Suzuki and Rosario didn't underperform, they mostly played like they should have been expected to (and played a lot).

Naturally, I'd anticipate most of the really young players to continue to grow and do better this year. But I also think it's fair to set low expectations on everyone 25 or older except Chargois, Dozier and E. Santana (and even he worries me with his every-other-year pattern). Unfortunately, most of those players are on the mound or occupying key spots in the lineup (1B/DH). So a bottom-3 finish shouldn't be a surprise without changes or drastic improvement from multiple unexpected players.

I really have no problem blaming the FO for treating 2015 as a springboard! None at all. Anyone who watched 2015 could see that sequencing (dumb a*^ luck) was responsible for that out of the box year. But those guys are gone, sort of. As for this year, I think the offense will be a little bit better, but that was not the problem last year was it? We still will trot out a long list of mediocre SP. which will be most likely mediocre. Backed up by what could be a very decent OF, a very bad left side of the IF, and a slightly above average (if Mauer is at 1B) right side of the IF. As for what could have happened in the off season, I ask this question. Would this team be better as it is now constructed? Or would it be better with the acquisition of a fairly top SP prospect, Polanco at second, and a very defensive oriented SS?

I think it's fair to expect improvement from the younger players.

I think it's also fair to expect significant regression from Dozier and E. Santana.

"They'll be better because they have to be...." So tired of this defense for what was a poor offseason. Apparently at this point only losing 90-95 games is a step forward. A team that loses 103 games has more problems than just bad luck but if we wish hard enough and sign a couple guys to minor league deals it'll all just go away I guess....

The bottom line is that any moves this offseason we're going to make a marginal impact, in isolation. Meaningful improvement needs to be driven by the likes of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. If that doesn't happen, they've got bigger problems.

If everything but the progression of the guys already on the team (aka do nothing and hope we get better) is marginal, then why even fire Terry Ryan?

This is a 103-loss team until it isn't. The new regime did little to change the roster beyond jettisoning Plouffe and signing Castro. Nothing to build for the future. No other major free agent signings. Nothing to bolster the league's worst pitching staff. 

I get that they can improve. I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 80 games this year based on all of the things you said. But keep in mind that this is a team that had an all-world second baseman and a surprisingly strong season from Ervin Santana and still lost 100 games. It'll take an awful lot to win those 80 games given the roster.

I don't like the odds, but Nick is right that a ton of things went wrong last year.  You cannot discount that.

I keep hearing this statement but I don't really buy it. It's not like we had a disproportionate amount of injuries. Other than Plouffe, Hughes, and Perkins we were overall pretty healthy, and neither Plouffe nor Perkins would have done anything to stem the bleeding last year. Every team loses a few players, but they don't go on to lose 100+ games because of it.

And it's not like we got random bad years from a bunch of established good players either. The players that struggled were either super young (expected) or just flat out aren't that good to begin with (also should have been expected). The young ones can improve, but can they improve enough to carry all the dead weight of the has-beens and never-will-bes?

Not much of a rebuttal to Mr. Froemming's article. Simple math tells us the Twins should have only lost 96 games in 2016?  Things can't go that bad again? Personnel changes should net out and our young guys will get better.  Man am I excited for this season.  #wemaynotlose100games.

I predict I'll enjoy watching the Twins as much as I'm enjoying the Timberwolves this season. Except more, because baseball is my favorite sport.

The Twins lack depth and there will be bouts of inconsistency. There are holes in the roster. But there is a lot of young talent that I expect, on the whole, will take a big step forward this year. That will make them worth my time.

I have tried my hardest to forget about last season but to the best of my memory - we earned every one of those 103 losses with a combination of bad managing, bad starting pitching, bad relief pitching, bad defense etc...If I put on my rose-colored glass for this season as hope springs eternal - we will be better this season because (1) Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios will be improved on both Offense and Defense with help from the old vets we brought in Hunter, Cuddyer and Hawkins (2) Castro will provide better pitch-framing and game calling? giving our pitchers more confidence and Murphy/Garver will help more as backups (3) May and Hughes come back to the rotation to give more stability (4) we find a SS that can give us average defense  (4) Jepsen is not in our bullpen this year  (5) Someone will help Molitor with managing decisions/he will have learned from experience  (6) Santana and Dozier performance does not fall off the face of the earth  (7) Other teams in our division will be taking a step back like Chi, KC and Det

My hope for this seaon - I would like to break the 70 win mark and for the team to show continued improvement this year - looking forward to the season.   

I think it's strange how much more hostility there is to the new leadership, in comparison to what it was with the old leadership that ran the organization into the ground. The old leadership was defended vigorously after each incompetent, incomprehensible move . . . the new leadership is criticized for non-moves that are either fictional or marginal in relevance. I find the dichotomy puzzling.

You can see why there would be some hostility, whether or not you believe or show it... Not too many 100+ loss teams go into the following season with the essentially the same roster. They set expectations from the get go "Don't get attached to your favorite Twins players" and then nothing happens. 

They inherited a roster with few trade pieces. The market for Dozier was limited at best and trading Santana was arguably counter-productive given the pitching situation.

I understand wanting significant roster change in the abstract, but in reality it's clear that there were significant constraints. 

They also inherited an organization in need of rebuilding top-to-bottom, not just from a player personnel standpoint. Those things are less visible but very important. 

In effect though, Falvey & Levine are being blamed for the mess Ryan left them. Lots of roster change happens during the MLB season, making it very premature to pass judgment.