Opportunity Cost

The one thing going for Vargas is switch hitting with power. He's a legit home run threat from either side of the plate, and his approach has improved greatly over his early days, when his swing looked more like something from slow pitch softball. Today his swing from both sides is short, compact and explosive. What happens if you give a guy like the 500 at bats?

Looks like the Twins aren't going to find out.

So, adding up the damage, we drop:

Mejia, Duffey, Busenitz, Curtiss, Reed, and Vargas.

We see less projected time from:

Hughes, Gibson, and Grossman.

More importantly, these are now the guys who step in for injuries or ineffectiveness.

Looking at the list, these would have been the highlights of our 2016 pitching staff.  So things are looking up.

With Santana on DL to start the seaon, we could have one more reliever in the majors.

Tyler Duffey is also left off the roster. Not sure that will happen. We'll see

What happens if you give a guy like the 500 at bats?

Everyone complains that he's taking Mauer's or Morrison's or Sano's at-bats.

It was always going to be difficult for Vargas to establish himself as an every-day guy with Mauer at 1B and Sano breaking in without a position.  Last year would have been the year...but it didn't happen.

His bad timing doesn't make him a great hitter, though.  It just makes him unlucky.

If the Twins let him go, I hope he gets that every-day opportunity at the next stop.

You still have to play thru spring training. If Morrison gets hurt (or Mauer), you want Vargas. The question will be Sano. Do you NEED that extra infielder. Ehire and Escobar are even a luxury, in many ways, although both can take a run in the outfield.

If an outfielder is on the mend, do you want Granite or Grossman.

Mejia is NOT a longterm player for the Twins. Yes, he throws left-handed, but it is ncie that you can still stash him at Rochester. You also have Slegers in the wings, plus Romero, Jorge and Gonsalves. So it looks pretty good there. Now, what to do about Hughes.

Do you open with Garver on the bench or send him to Rochester to catch your starters for the future. He has the options. Are you better served with one of the other catchers as a bench/backup, at least to start the season.

Yes, there will be some arms pushed back in bullpen land, not to mention some others waiting and able (Jake Reed). Right now, the Twins have an abundance of riches in the pitching department.

But they don't have much on the 40-man to call up as a bat if someone goes down, and you need to create a 40-man sport. All those minor league free agents are great if push-comes-to-shove, but none of them really work into any longterm plans.

Love the roster flexibility that comes with Granite over a long season and hate the inflexibility of Grossman and Vargas. Especially when the bench numbers are limited. And with the addition of Logan, I think HR potential off the bench is slightly less needed. 

Hildenberger was our best pitcher for a half season. 

I would not pencil in Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, or Taylor Rogers, as "locks" for the Twins' pen, ahead of eg. Duffey

 

Other than the 4 veterans (the 3 new guys plus Hughes) there are no locks.  Everyone who is returning in that pen was part of one of the worst pens in the game.  No locks.

 

I think that the biggest loser with the Lynn signing was Fernando Romero who had an outside chance to make the team and be good.  Maybe he will do so mid-season.

I would also not write Vargas out and/or call Grossman a lock.  Neither or both can make the team or someone like Granite and Aybar might.  These 4 are fighting for 2 spots and any combination might be in play.

 

Give it 2 weeks, we'll know.

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that? What a nice piece to have waiting at AAA but tough for the Duff Man. He certainly seemed likely to make the team before this crazy offseason.

Duffey does have innings left, and Kinley likely just replaces Burdi in the minors. I'd imagine the Twins will work out a trade with the Marlins to keep him.

Grossman has a better approach at the plate, on base skills, and can be used as a 4th outfielder. But I still would like to see Vargas kept over him. But I think Vargas will be left out. To bad he doesn't have any options left. Does Grossman have any?

Grossman is SCARY in the outfield.  He has run into Santana, Polanco and Buxton.  He made more errors than all LFers in the league in 2016 in just SEVENTY FIVE games.

I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there.

I think Hildenberger will have to pitch himself out of a job this spring.  He was pretty solid last year and had dominated the minors. Biggest impacts likely on Mejia, Vargas, Grossman, and Granite.  I have a feeling Grossman will be the 4th OF and Granite goes to the minors.  Grossman can pinch-hit off the bench and is a switch-hitter.  He also takes professional at-bats.  You can send Granite to AAA and if/when an OF goes on the DL, then you call up Granite to fill in as an every-day OF.  

Imo, this what "should" happen.

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line. 

Bench: Go with Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Mitch Garver. Next in line should be Zack Granite, Ryan Lamarre, and Erick Aybar.

And if Sano gets suspended just reward a reliever to get some looks against MLB batters (likely Fernando Romero). There's no need to call on Erick Aybar when your bench has Adrianza and Escobar, we were fine without Sano at the end of 2017 anyways. 

Look to trade Phil Huhges, Kennys Vargas, Ehire Adrianza (sell high), Erick Aybar, Tyler Duffey, and Aaron Slegers (nothing to prove in AAA) for a catching prospect, a so-so RH bench bat, or another lefty reliever.

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line. 

 

Bench: Go with Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Mitch Garver. Next in line should be Zack Granite, Ryan Lamarre, and Erick Aybar.

 

And if Sano gets suspended just reward a reliever to get some looks against MLB batters (likely Fernando Romero). There's no need to call on Erick Aybar when your bench has Adrianza and Escobar, we were fine without Sano at the end of 2017 anyways. 

 

 

Look to trade Phil Huhges, Kennys Vargas, Ehire Adrianza (sell high), Erick Aybar, Tyler Duffey, and Aaron Slegers (nothing to prove in AAA) for a catching prospect, a so-so RH bench bat, or another lefty reliever.

I would trade Granite, Grossman and Escobar for Mike Trout, who could play vs lhp instead of Kepler and back up Buxton in CF. It's always fun when you don't have to consider the other team's considerations and restrictions! Heck, we're not even paying attention to the Twins' restrictions.

Just so this post is somewhat constructive: a number of names above can not be traded, either procedure-wise or in practicality. Nor are teams looking to add players who need to be kept on the 25 and/or 40 man rosters.

If Vargas is dealt, it's after clearing waivers and being dealt to a team that will offer the infamous PTBNL or cash. I don't think Aybar can be dealt unless he makes the team, as he has an opt out. Trade Phil Hughes?  That's what Terry Ryan needed to do after 2014, in hindsight, instead of extending him (not in hindsight). It should go without saying that a deal involving Hughes is impossible. 

It's possible there's a team out there that has some space on the 40 man for Duffey, but they're not going to pay for that. He's the definition of replacement level.

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line.

If you are suggesting that the Twins trade Slegers and Duffy to make room for Kinley, I don't think that would --- or should --- happen. At this point, with 2 weeks left in ST, Kinley is going to have to flash some real magic to make this club. He doesn't appear to be the second coming of  Johan Santana, so I don't think we'll regret losing him.

It's pretty clear the Twins signed Morrison because they think he's better than Vargas. They were essentially given the opportunity to sign Morrison - knowing that they'd lose Kennys if they did it.  They took the deal.

It's too bad, like others have said Kennys looks like a guy who can hit 30+ homers with 500 AB.  But Morrison hit 38 last year, and it appears the Twins prefer the sure thing over giving Vargas a shot. So be it.  Here's hoping Kennys catches on with another team.  I sure hope it ain't in the AL, because I'd hate seeing him hit 35 HRs for anyone in the Central, or the Red Sox, or frankly any team the Twins play more than once a year.

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that? What a nice piece to have waiting at AAA but tough for the Duff Man. He certainly seemed likely to make the team before this crazy offseason.

I would like to understand the rationale that set up this move. Yes, 20/20 hindsight shows this move to be odd, however, it never seemed to make sense.  It seems like when Burdi went high in the rule 5 draft, the FO panicked to make a move to offset the loss.  Pulling at straws here.  Like I have said in the past, this FO, is making great strides and this one seems out of step with everything else they have done.