Do the Twins Have Too Many Starters?

Did not read full article, just the headline and my answer is NOOOOOO. You can never have too many starters or too much pitching.  Then after I read the article I understood the point is address that we will need several to finish a year.  That is the case, no way will the 5 that start this year will pitch every game.  We will still need the likes of Ober, Varland, SWR, to come up and make some starts.  

Let the season run it’s course and see where you are at the All-Star Break. If all 5 of these guys are still healthy and performing and Ober/Varland/SWR are having great season at AAA then trading a starter seems alright, I could see Sonny Gray being shipped off for a Top Prospect or Influential bat

no

35 minutes ago, MTV said:

Let the season run it’s course and see where you are at the All-Star Break. If all 5 of these guys are still healthy and performing and Ober/Varland/SWR are having great season at AAA then trading a starter seems alright, I could see Sonny Gray being shipped off for a Top Prospect or Influential bat

This is just one idea and not a bad one depending on circumstances. Another, is that the Twins trade for a pitcher like Corbin Burnes, who looked off yesterday. No team ever has too many good starting pitchers. 

There is quite a bit of time between now and the trade deadline. The Twins, as much or more than any other team, have a significant number of players in their system with question marks and/or hopes attached to their performances. The talent that could potentially heal and thrive along with the quickly emerging young players includes so many names as to see the current roster as the weakest point of the season. It is actually possible and not unrealistic to have players like Kirilloff, Polanco, Lewis, and Julien step forward in a major fashion while guys like Gordon, Larnach, Miranda, Kepler, Vasquez, Jeffers, Farmer, Correa, and Buxton all perform to a high level. One game in, the Twins remain a team with concerns and high hopes. Too many starting pitchers is not a thing.

If the answer was 'Yes', the solution would be to trade one or two for hitting. I think the value you would get for the starters you would be willing to trade at this time, answers the question for you. I think the trade market would confirm that the Twins have a lot of number 4-5 -ish starters (and a small number of 1-3 -ish). The return probably isn't worth the risk of losing the depth...at least while the team is in contention.

Two things could change this later in the season or this off-season, IMO. Probably more like a combination of these two.

One, a prospect and/or one of the 4-ish guys makes a huge leap....

Two, the team doesn't compete in 2023 due, at least in part, to a weak offensive lineup (which is very possible, especially if Kirilloff falls by the wayside and Lewis doesn't/can't perform at some point, Kepler/Gallo don't bounce back, etc.)

Starting the season I'd place Ryan at #3 behind Lopez & Gray. Mahle seemed inconsistent & Maeda lacked control, so I'm not confident that either of them can give us 5 quality innings. Since neither of them can be sent down or if even pitch in the long relief role, Ober should have been tried in long relief to see how he fared. 

If he fared well Ober should have been brought up with the team as long relief. As long relief where should have plenty of opportunities pitch at least 3 innings/ game. Ober pitched his heart out in ST and deserved to left on the team. I hate it when a player excels over his competitors in ST & still be sent down.

2 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

What would you think of the Twins trading Bailey Ober now? Would the Mets consider trading catching prospect Kevin Parada A (#36 MLB Prospect) as they have Francisco Alvarez AAA (#3 MLB Prospect) ahead of him? Trade simulator puts Parada at 26.1 and Ober at 21.8. To be clear, I don't want to trade Ober, I think he should be in our starting five over Maeda with Maeda as a piggy back for Ober, However, the Mets might be willing to massively overpay in prospect capital to pick up another starter with minimal financial cost and multi year control to offset their injuries this year. Ober hasn't yet proven he can stay healthy through a full season. 

I really like your idea INBOS. I think we really need a very good catching prospect and Parada hits very well. But IMO Parada doesn't have the arm to stick at catching so IMO he'll end up at 1B/ DH.

Also IMO if Ober is stretched out slowly as a rookie, he'll eventually gain the stamina to go thru a season w/o injuring himself so much. I wouldn't write off Ober so quickly because next year we'll really need him.

I'm very enthusiastic about the starting pitching depth right now, but we're not at the point where we can seriously consider trading any of it for help/upgrades in other areas, unless the season collapses on us and we have to go into sell mode near the deadline. (or if everyone is healthy and crushing it, I guess?) Because the reality is, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda may not be back next season. (I think the Twins would be wise to try and sign one of them, but there's complicating factors for all of them) So while the depth looks great this year, it does potentially thin out for next season. (Though again, assembling a rotation from Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland/Woods Richardson is a much better place to start than in recent years!)

Hopefully, players like Ryan & Ober, Varland & Woods Richardson become mainstays to the point where we're consistently looking at only needing one young pitcher from the pipeline to step up per season at the start and have 2-3 others ready to go  in Saint Paul. That's what a true starting pitching pipeline looks like, and we're seeing signs that we might be getting there. The rotation is good and deep this year, with real potential for next even if all the free agents go. There are talented prospects rising through the system with arrivals ranging from 2023-2025 (Balazovic, Prielipp, Festa, Raya...man, I want to put Canterino on here but I just can't).

Never enough pitching. The way the Twins are evolving we also are going to be much less reliant on signing veteran retreads hoping for a bounceback to fill a big role. (I think it's fine to sign one to fill the 5th slot now and then...but the Twins were having to go for 2-3 of those guys because the system wasn't producing talent that could compete)

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, Fangraphs already lists him as a LF.......

I like the idea of dealing a starter but not Ober...I'd rather deal Maeda for a low level guy at this point (I don't trust his arm and I do trust the three in AAA).

Besides Parada not sticking at catching yet the Mets will try to pawn him off with the catching premium. That'll cost us dearly.

No, they’re just being used improperly (mainly Ober).

None of these guys are workhorses by any stretch.  Even if they were, we just saw Baldelli again yesterday pull a starter with a shutout fairly early in the game.

So, instead of getting creative and using a 6 man rotation or piggy backing guys like Maeda and Ober in the same game, they’re going to fill the void created by short starts with low quality relievers like Pagan, Sands, etc.

It’ll cost the team games, for sure.  The question is how many.  3? 5?  I could argue it cost them at least that last year with just Pagan alone.

It also may cause issues with lining up starts.  Let’s say Mahle cant make a start because his shoulder flares up and Varland and Ober started yesterday and the day before.  You may not be able to get your MLB guys ready guys to fill those gaps and end up with whichever AAAA retread is available (Gonzales and Chi Chi types from last year).  

Maybe it only costs them 1 or 2 games throughout the year if they’re lucky.  Still too many.

4 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

What would you think of the Twins trading Bailey Ober now? Would the Mets consider trading catching prospect Kevin Parada A (#36 MLB Prospect) as they have Francisco Alvarez AAA (#3 MLB Prospect) ahead of him? Trade simulator puts Parada at 26.1 and Ober at 21.8. To be clear, I don't want to trade Ober, I think he should be in our starting five over Maeda with Maeda as a piggy back for Ober, However, the Mets might be willing to massively overpay in prospect capital to pick up another starter with minimal financial cost and multi year control to offset their injuries this year. Ober hasn't yet proven he can stay healthy through a full season. 

I like the idea of trading for a catcher but no way would I trade Ober when we are going to lose three SPs next year.  I was an advocate of trading Maeda during the off-season if the opportunity was present.  Ideally, they trade one of the short-term assets (Maeda/Mahle/Gray) to a likely contender willing to pay a premium because they have an immediate need.  Mahle and Maeda are going to need to establish themselves as healthy before anyone is going to offer much for them.

This could be interesting in 2-3 months, especially if Varland and SWR are killing it at AAA.

I don't think you can ever have too much quality pitching, if for no other reason than pitching is often something teams need, so it's invaluable trade bait.

My sense is its a bit early to address this question. We'll have a better sense of where we're at after 3 games with Houston, 6 with the damn Yankees, and three with the Chisox by the end of April. Plus, through May 17, we'll have three more each with the Chisox, TribGuardians, Padres, Cubs, and Dodgers.

The real question might become do we need to parlay our newfound depth in above-average pitching into a July deal to improve the front of our rotation. (Sorry, I'm not yet convinced what we have now stacks up well against the teams who've played in the LCS's recently.)

Considering the way this team was built through their struggles last decade, the goal is to be able to play and beat frontrunners. It isn't enough to make the playoffs, we need to show we can beat playoff-caliber teams. (Unless happiness for you is seeing division pennants flying above the stadium. And for those who say 'You have to win the division first': a team capable of advancing in the playoffs is capable of beating the also-rans and winning a division. As the Twins have proven this century, the reverse is not always true.)

7 hours ago, MTV said:

Let the season run it’s course and see where you are at the All-Star Break. If all 5 of these guys are still healthy and performing and Ober/Varland/SWR are having great season at AAA then trading a starter seems alright, I could see Sonny Gray being shipped off for a Top Prospect or Influential bat

Maybe the Marlins will want to deal Arraez back to the Twins...:)

JcS

Never too many starters.  Heck, I wouldn't mind if they drafted one at #5.

37 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Be grateful for the depth and hold on to it with both hands. 

Starters in the age of 190 inning a season guys being considered workhorse's are priceless.

No. and then draft a SP @ #5.  That gives us CP, Raya and #5 in the system and developing to win in 2025. Thats when we really will have an opportunity to compete for a WS every yr. At this point, we still need more pitching. 

Great opportunity to make a run at Corbin Burnes.