Did The Twins Give Up On Hicks Too Soon?

DJL44 · November 13, 2015

They may have traded him too late. There were rumors of a Zack Greinke deal that would have been led by Aaron Hicks as the top prospect. In hindsight that would have been a better idea.

Target Field of Dreams · November 13, 2015

Great analysis Nick! We definitely over-value our own players here. Fans of all teams do this...part of the emotion of truly loving a team and having their players become your favorites.

It sucks to see players we like moved, especially ones with the skill-set that Hicks does, but the reality is that us thinking of him as a potential All-Star is all projection, based on an extremely small sample size of actual production at the MLB level. The performance against RH pitching is the biggest thing most people leave out when discussing Hicks, and that is a glaring weakness.

If we get a league avg catcher in Murphy for the foreseeable future, that is a big win as we did not have one in the pipeline for a couple years at best. We have a lot of talented OF in the pipeline and this trade should allow us to focus on other positions to further improve this team.

Shane Wahl · November 13, 2015

This stuff about being a "corner OF" is way the hell overblown. If other sluggers are present, and you actually have a big-time offensive CF, one doesn't need to worry about slugging coming from the corner OF. I straight up do not understand. Rosario isn't going to be a slugging corner OF either. And neither is Kepler. All of them are likely to be solid all-around players who are above average offensively and good to excellent defensively.

This "corner OF type" stuff just blows my mind.

halfchest · November 13, 2015

I said it in another thread but Murphy has a better career ops in the majors than hicks does and has done it as a part time guy not getting consistent at bats and being 2 years younger. Add in the weakness at catcher and its a good trade. Great analysis

Homer Hanky · November 13, 2015

They may have given up on him to early but, could they have gotten a good catcher with out giving up on him... Since i can't have the best of both worlds... I'm glad we made the trade... and hope that Murphy can be the Catcher we need...

GREAT write up!

Seth Stohs · November 13, 2015

They may have traded him too late. There were rumors of a Zack Greinke deal that would have been led by Aaron Hicks as the top prospect. In hindsight that would have been a better idea.

I can honestly say I never heard that rumor!

I remember the Cliff Lee rumors, but never Greinke.

Seth Stohs · November 13, 2015

A couple of days later, I've settled into what I felt all along. I really think this is a good trade for both players and for both teams. We'll see how it plays out, but I get the logic, it's sound.

I want to see Hicks take off. If he does, I'll be happy for him.But there is some depth. They still have Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Kepler. They could add a veteran for the short-term or encourage Danny Santana to get some time in the corner outfield spots too.

They needed catching. Murphy's just 24 and could be the starter by June. I'd expect Suzuki and Murphy to split time in the first couple of months, but for Murphy to take maybe 2/3 of the starts after that.

We shall see.

sane · November 13, 2015

There were rumors of a Zack Greinke deal that would have been led by Aaron Hicks as the top prospect. In hindsight that would have been a better idea.

Greinke is a Free agent who would have been a one-month rental and the Dodgers needed him badly. He would already be gone along with Hicks; and Murphy would still be on the Yankees.

Find the guy who told you that rumor, and tell him for me that he is clueless.

bluechipper · November 13, 2015

Greinke is a Free agent who would have been a one-month rental and the Dodgers needed him badly. He would already be gone along with Hicks; and Murphy would still be on the Yankees.
Find the guy who told you that rumor, and tell him for me that he is clueless.

I don't think he meant a trade this year...

Mike Sixel · November 13, 2015

I fail to see how trading one player for another player is "giving up on" them......they exchanged one asset for another. Trading a player is NOT giving up on them.

/rant

TheLeviathan · November 13, 2015

People wanted so badly to believe the good glimpses were the "real" Hicks, but by and large - it wasn't. I think we moved on at the right time.

Maybe Aaron goes on to have a great career, but if I'm a betting man I prefer someone else takes that chance.

Edited November 13, 2015 by TheLeviathan

Mike Sixel · November 13, 2015

If Hicks succeeds or is awesome:

1. We don't know if that would happen here

2. It doesn't matter, if Murphy is good

3. I don't get why people get all up in arms over that automatically making it bad. They key is what the Twins get, not what Hicks does now.

bird · November 13, 2015

This stuff about being a "corner OF" is way the hell overblown. If other sluggers are present, and you actually have a big-time offensive CF, one doesn't need to worry about slugging coming from the corner OF. I straight up do not understand. Rosario isn't going to be a slugging corner OF either. And neither is Kepler. All of them are likely to be solid all-around players who are above average offensively and good to excellent defensively.

This "corner OF type" stuff just blows my mind.

Let's think about it another way though. Teams have to get power and extra base production from somewhere, The chances of getting to from C, SS, 2B, or CF are generally limited. That's the reason historically that teams look to the corners for that kind of production. So, a team can sacrifice that type of production from one or two corners, but only if they're getting it elsewhere, right? I think you might be right when it comes to the Twins, but that's assuming your 2016 power production comes from 2B, 3B, DH, and ???. The caveat about "corner OF type" is that power production has to come from somewhere else if Mauer is manning 1B for example.

Brock Beauchamp · November 13, 2015

If Hicks succeeds or is awesome:

1. We don't know if that would happen here
2. It doesn't matter, if Murphy is good
3. I don't get why people get all up in arms over that automatically making it bad. They key is what the Twins get, not what Hicks does now.

Exactly. I'm much more concerned with what Murphy does in Target Field than what Hicks does in Yankee Stadium.

zenser · November 13, 2015

Personally, I like Hicks as a player and hope the best for him. I hope he continues on because it looked like, at seasons end, he was the player we had hoped for. I have read in other threads that we should have held on to Hicks until Buxton was ready and Hicks became the 4th outfielder. To me, that logic doesn't make sense. What value/return would a player have if he was the 4th OF? I think the time was right and I think this trade will work out for both sides.

gunnarthor · November 13, 2015

Nice article. I think Hicks' ceiling is better but I don't think he can reach it. It's a solid trade but I understand the frustration.

troyhobbs · November 13, 2015

I fail to see how trading one player for another player is "giving up on" them......they exchanged one asset for another. Trading a player is NOT giving up on them.

/rant

Agree. Trading from an area of strength to fill an area of weakness. Sure Hicks is probably the more talented player but it's still less risky than overpaying on a longterm deal for an average C on the FA market especially w/ all the fat contracts they already have on the payroll

Darius · November 13, 2015

I don't understand this "log jam" in the outfield, business. Its just not the case, IMO. The way i see it as it currently stands:

Miguel Sano isn't an outfielder, and probably shouldn't be (he'll just get moved again in a year or two, why not just develop him at his permanent spot?). I know its not terribly difficult, but he hasn't stepped foot on outfield grass in his life (warning: hyperbole), and RF in TF is one of the trickier to play with that overhang. I've seen first hand that he has a great arm, but is it accurate from 300 ft? A lot of questions there.

It doesn't sound like Buxton is going to start the year with the big club. Of course, he may never figure out major league pitching and be a mendoza line guy with no power (which I don't think will be the case, but its a contingency). I'd prefer not to anoint him the 15 year starter at CF quite yet, at least until he shows me something more at the MLB level.

Even if Kepler were ready now, I don't see the Twins bringing him up before rosters expand, let alone before they can clear a service time hurdle.

Arcia shouldn't be counted on for anything at this point, and his defense approaches Willingham status. He can't hit breaking balls. I doubt he'll even be with the organization in '17.

You're left with Rosario, who has less than 500 ABs in the majors, and Danny Santana, who is always one mistake away from mentally unraveling (it seems) into an 0-50 slump and error spree. Those are your only competent defensive outfielders to start the season. Thats just asking for trouble, especially in Target Field.

Even if they bring in a free agent to start the year in center (who will more than likely be a bargain bin, below replacement level player, if history tells us anything), they're still short on depth, in my estimation.

Of course, this is all operates under the assumption that Park can hit major league pitching, which is a total unknown at this point, and probably a coin flip. If it comes up tails, Sano is still the full time DH and we're signing another Eric Komatsu.

Steve Penz · November 13, 2015

Echoing some others here, I say it is not giving up. He was traded for what the Twins needed. The twins have outfielders to spare. It is a good gamble. I like it.

stringer bell · November 13, 2015

This stuff about being a "corner OF" is way the hell overblown. If other sluggers are present, and you actually have a big-time offensive CF, one doesn't need to worry about slugging coming from the corner OF. I straight up do not understand. Rosario isn't going to be a slugging corner OF either. And neither is Kepler. All of them are likely to be solid all-around players who are above average offensively and good to excellent defensively.

This "corner OF type" stuff just blows my mind.

You're right to a degree, but what changes if Hicks is considered a corner OF is that there will be different people who are capable of playing the outfield corners competing for playing time there. On the Twins, it would be Arcia, AB Walker and probably Kepler. None of those guys are projected as center fielders, but all could man left or right (maybe not Arcia). If Hicks were moved to a corner, he would have to better than those guys and I don't think he would be.

Darius · November 13, 2015

Greinke is a Free agent who would have been a one-month rental and the Dodgers needed him badly. He would already be gone along with Hicks; and Murphy would still be on the Yankees.
Find the guy who told you that rumor, and tell him for me that he is clueless.

Are you sure you aren't wrong in regards to the timeline?

jimbo92107 · November 13, 2015

A couple of days later, I've settled into what I felt all along. I really think this is a good trade for both players and for both teams. We'll see how it plays out, but I get the logic, it's sound.

I want to see Hicks take off. If he does, I'll be happy for him.But there is some depth. They still have Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Kepler. They could add a veteran for the short-term or encourage Danny Santana to get some time in the corner outfield spots too.

They needed catching. Murphy's just 24 and could be the starter by June. I'd expect Suzuki and Murphy to split time in the first couple of months, but for Murphy to take maybe 2/3 of the starts after that.

We shall see.

Sounds like about what the Twins must be thinking. Trading Hicks for Murphy eases a positional logjam at both ends of the deal, and opens up career opportunities for both players.

I hate to see Hicks go because I like watching a guy figure things out, and it looked like he was getting there. Same thing may have been happening to Murphy in NY. Wedged between McCann and Sanchez, Murphy wasn't likely to emerge as the steady starter.

Good luck to both guys. Not a steal on either side, but a good team move.

Mike Sixel · November 13, 2015

the Twins have shown, with Hicks anyway, that service time is not the key for them. FWIW, KLAW thinks Kepler is ready now, or close enough, that bringing him up right away is not an issue (probably, maybe).

dgwills · November 13, 2015

Hicks did have a good year. If you include AAA it was real good. He's just so streaky though and given his splits the value I see is as a good 4th outfielder. The Twins could of used that, but catcher was a huge problem. I didn't like any of the free agents, so I think they did pretty well. There's just not a lot of good or average defensive catchers who can hit at all. Murphy just has more value to the Twins than Hicks did. Walker could make an interesting 4th outfielder in the future anyways.Good analysis. Thanks.

nytwinsfan · November 13, 2015

Let's think about it another way though. Teams have to get power and extra base production from somewhere, The chances of getting to from C, SS, 2B, or CF are generally limited. That's the reason historically that teams look to the corners for that kind of production. So, a team can sacrifice that type of production from one or two corners, but only if they're getting it elsewhere, right? I think you might be right when it comes to the Twins, but that's assuming your 2016 power production comes from 2B, 3B, DH, and ???. The caveat about "corner OF type" is that power production has to come from somewhere else if Mauer is manning 1B for example.

Yes, but as you sort of acknowledge, most teams don't have Dozier for a 2B or Buxton for a CF, both of whom have a lot of power/power potential. But more importantly no, Teams do not "have to" get power and extra base production from somewhere. Look at the Royals, to take the best example. Very low on the power. But exceptional outfield defense. During the last two years, with TWO World Series appearances, they were 16 out of 30 in power, and most of that limited power was based on a high BA, as they were 27 out of 30 in ISO.

All that being said, i'm fine with the trade, because we have a deep corner outfield with Rosario, Kepler, Arcia, and Walker all arrived or on the doorstep. The first provides more in defense, Arcia in power, and Kepler and Walker probably somewhere in between. They can all be potentially average or above average Corner Outfielders (although obviously Walker has the most work to do and is the least likely to make it as a starter). Value is value, no matter what part of a player's game it comes from.

Brock Beauchamp · November 13, 2015

the Twins have shown, with Hicks anyway, that service time is not the key for them. FWIW, KLAW thinks Kepler is ready now, or close enough, that bringing him up right away is not an issue (probably, maybe).

I don't see it happening without an injury.

Rosario is a given.

Arcia needs to be on the roster.

Buxton has both MLB and AAA time.

Then comes Kepler. I don't see Max jumping over the guys in front of him to open the season, though I think we could see him relatively early in the season (May) if one of the other guys is struggling.

Otto von Ballpark · November 13, 2015

Hicks has all the tools necessary to be one of the league's better center fielders, boasting excellent defense and speed with a hint of power and solid plate approach. Murphy's realistic ceiling is average big-league catcher.

But when it comes to the likelihood of reaching those levels, Murphy is the far safer bet.

To be fair, this "bet" is on two different things: Hicks being notably above average for his position, and Murphy being average for his. You could actually lose that bet on Hicks and still have him equal or exceed Murphy's contribution.

Otto von Ballpark · November 13, 2015

Greinke is a Free agent who would have been a one-month rental and the Dodgers needed him badly. He would already be gone along with Hicks; and Murphy would still be on the Yankees.
Find the guy who told you that rumor, and tell him for me that he is clueless.

The poster was referring to the period around the actual Greinke trades (2011-2012). Referring to Hicks as "the top prospect" in the deal should have been the dead giveaway, as Hicks hasn't really been considering a prospect since 2013.

DocBauer · November 13, 2015

First, I agree the corner OF thing is kind of overblown. You put together the best overall roster you can. Sometimes one position is not ML average OPS wise, or better than, but you may be better than average at another spot. (Dozier, for example)

In regard to both sides of the Hicks yes/no debate:

In fairness to Hicks, he was jumped past AAA when his history suggested, like most young players, that he might be better off taking every milb step along the way. There were times when his playing time was a bit sketchy, and perhaps playing more continuous would have benefited him. He did appear to be a very different, more confident and aggressive ballplayer in 2015, at the plate and in the field. And he does still have an awful lot of talent to tap in to still.

In fairness to the Twins, Hicks still can't seem to hit RH pitchers very well. While appear to be that different ball player in 2015, his numbers are padded by a month hot streak. There have been incidents of seeming to lose track (or interest) of what's going on around him. He has had, more or less, 3 years to step forward and be something close to the top prospect and top 100 player he was supposed to be.

I wish Hicks the best. I really thought we should have kept him until mid season. But we do have a lot of talented kids here, or close. We did/do need to upgrade the catching spot. You can't really compare an OF and a C directly in relation to offensive production. But most importantly...what is really important...does Murphy help the Twins? Other than when the Yankees play the Twins, what Hicks does with them going forward is pretty irrelevant.

sane · November 13, 2015

I don't think he meant a trade this year...

OK, I misunderstood.

Sign In

Did The Twins Give Up On Hicks Too Soon?

Twins Video

Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

Recent Twins Articles

Recent Twins Videos

Community Blogs

Forum Topics

Twins Top Prospects

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Featured Comments

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Do you approve of the job the Twins front office is doing?