Who will lead the team in home runs this year?

[Nate Haseman]

Arcia, Willingham, and Plouffe all tie at 31

[TheLeviathan]

Arcia, Willingham, and Plouffe all tie at 31

 

10 players total in the AL hit 30 homeruns last year. I'm going to suggest having 3 from this Twins team do that is unlikely. To put it kindly.

[JB_Iowa]

I'll see your proposal and offer a counter one.

 

Arcia and Plouffe as your mid 20's-ish. But your other 20 HR producer could be tough. Too many variables. What does Kubes have left and is there going to be real AB's for him, when might Sano be ready, does Willingham rebound, and if he does, does he stay?

 

But how about I take your 20HR guy away, and offer up 4 players instead of 2 who might give you that 15-17ish HR mark? Mauer, Dozier, Pinto and possibly Hicks over 500 AB's could all be in that range.

 

(Sano is the gravy and icing on top all in one potential package)

 

I'm not sure exactly where they would come from. Plouffe and Arcia are the most obvious possibilities for 25. Kubel is a dark horse if he could get back to his 2010 form and Willingham is a possibility -- but there's always the potential of trades if some hitters actually get hot in the first half.

 

I'd say that the 20 HR guy may be Dozier with just a slight improvement from 2013.

 

And that the 15-17 HR guys could be Mauer, Pinto, Hicks or the 1st half of Willingham or Kubes.

 

Like I said, it's a bit of a stretch.

 

I took a look at the Twins for the last four years:

 

[TABLE=width: 704]

[TABLE=width: 704]

Top 5 HR

Top 5 RBI

Team HR

Team RBI

[TD=colspan: 2]Top 5/%HR

[TD=colspan: 2]Top5/%RBI[/TD]

RUNS

[TD=align: right]2010[/TD]

[TD=align: right]99[/TD]

[TD=align: right]400[/TD]

[TD=align: right]142[/TD]

[TD=align: right]749[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69.70%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]53.40%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]781

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67[/TD]

[TD=align: right]271[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]572[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]65%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]47.4%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]619

[TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]106[/TD]

[TD=align: right]402[/TD]

[TD=align: right]131[/TD]

[TD=align: right]667[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]80.90%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60.30%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]701

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]295[/TD]

[TD=align: right]151[/TD]

[TD=align: right]590[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25.60%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]614

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 2]

[TD=colspan: 2][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

 

(Top 5 means the total of the top 5 home run hitters -- disregarding ties; then the RBIs produced by those hitters, the total team home runs, total team RBIs, the % of team HR hit by the "top 5", the % of team RBIs hit by the "top 5" and the total run production of the team.)

 

First, I was flabbergasted to realize that out of those 4 years, the team actually the most HR's in 2013 yet total run production was the lowest in that year.

 

Second, it looks to me like there is a slight correlation between scoring runs and having a strong core of about 5 guys hitting home runs and getting most of the RBI's. The two years (2010 and 2012) where the top 5 HR producers produced a higher percentage of RBI were also the 2 years with the highest run totals. (The difference may not be statistically significant since 2010 isn't that much higher than 2012 but obviously something not very good was going on in 2013.)

 

So I'm going to "hope" that some of these players can come through and hit the higher totals -- it looks like everybody needs to be doing their job. Some table setters/high OBP guys and some who can just hit them in.

 

Not very scientific but it does kind of show how dysfunctional last year was.

 

Note: I took the figures from ESPN's sortable stats:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/min/cat/homeRuns/minnesota-twins

 

And I very well could have could have looked at them wrong and run the wrong totals and percentages -- i already caught a big mistake once. If I did that, I apologize in advance for wasting everybody's time.

[savvyspy]

Arcia - 18

Willingham - 14

Dozier - 12

Florimon - 9

Plouffe - 9

Mauer - 7

 

Twins - Fewest HRs in the majors by 12-15

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Arcia 27

Plouffe 18

Dozier, Hammer (traded late June/early July), Mauer, Sano (up after the Hammer trade) all around the 15 mark.

Hicks 10-12

Not optimistic about Kubel

[h2oface]

Joe Mauer completes a metamorphosis, and hits 36 home runs!

[Squirrel]

Joe Mauer completes a metamorphosis, and hits 36 home runs!

 

This is what I like about Spring ... so many possibilities! Probabilities are another issue ... but I like these possibilities!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If Willingham in the first half of the season is on pace to lead the team, he'll be traded. If he isn't, no one will want him.

 

My my prediction is counting his homers for the Twins and their trade partner I say Hammer hits 32, and Arcia leads homers in a Twins uniform hitting 29 with Plouffe right behind him.

[Seth Stohs]

Fun question... I'll say:

 

Willingham 28

Arcia 27

Plouffe 25

Kubel 18

Dozier 17

[Original_JB]

I just have a feeling that with a fresh set of legs and (hopefully) many more games played that Mauersie will lead the team in HR's and well over half will be opposite field. I think it will be close, but I figure that he's the most consistent hitter hat this point, with Hammer 2nd. I'd like to think Plouffe, but I still think he's still on a short leash with his play at 3rd--can't hit 'em if your not playing. Kubes if/when he plays will be short on ABs and will be fed a steady diet of outside pitches that he can't catch up to anymore. Might see Arcia get close, but we'll see how he adapts to the pitchers adapting to him this year; I feel his SO rate will climb. Not coming down on anyone, just feel like I'm playing the odds.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Not that he will lead the club, but Aaron Hicks hit 8 home runs in 281 at bats last year... Baseball Reference projects that to 16 homers over a 162 game season.

 

I'm going to go with Mauer. He will match 2009 with 28 homers. "If only the baby Jesus would stop growing and put on some man muscle..." Oh, yeah. He's 30 years old now.

[cmathewson]

I just have a feeling that with a fresh set of legs and (hopefully) many more games played that Mauersie will lead the team in HR's and well over half will be opposite field. I think it will be close, but I figure that he's the most consistent hitter hat this point, with Hammer 2nd. I'd like to think Plouffe, but I still think he's still on a short leash with his play at 3rd--can't hit 'em if your not playing. Kubes if/when he plays will be short on ABs and will be fed a steady diet of outside pitches that he can't catch up to anymore. Might see Arcia get close, but we'll see how he adapts to the pitchers adapting to him this year; I feel his SO rate will climb. Not coming down on anyone, just feel like I'm playing the odds.

 

With fresh hands and fresh legs, I think Mauer will hit more than usual. Perhaps 20. But it is just so hard to hit homers in Target Field the opposite way, like he did for something like 19 of his homer the year he hit 29, that he will struggle to hit homers at home.

[Champuckett]

I was inclined to go with Arcia but after a little analysis on it..

 

I'm going to go with Brian Dozier. He's more of an everyday player than Arcia and will probably play more games/won't be as injured as often. Dozier got stronger as the season progressed last year, indicating he is strong enough to play a full season at a high level.

 

There is no reason a healthy Arcia shouldn't be our best home run hitter this year, but I just get the feeling he may be a little careless with his body and spend a lot of time rehabbing.

 

I'm not expecting anything amazing out of any Twins players in the HR department until Sano, so I'm going with:

 

Dozier: 21

Arcia: 18

Willingham: 16

Mauer, default disappointment: 13

[Blackjack]

I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.

 

That would be sweet if Arcia could hit 35 but don't think it will happen, the minute he goes into a slump Gardy will give him some pine time, not sure that Arcia has the psych to handle that, plus all the other competiors for playing time at DH and corner outfield will cut down on his at bats.

 

My vote is Plouffe at 28 HR's. Willingham will hit more but some of them will be with another team.

[oldguy10]

No doubt in my mind that Gardy will bench Arcia and other youngsters as soon as they hit a little rough patch which in my mind is counter productive with young ball players. Let them play through their tough stretches just as is done with veterans. The more at-bats the better I would think.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is somewhat tough, there's reason to believe that a number of guys could break out... then there is what we've seen the last few years... optimistic:

 

Arcia, Willigham 25

Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee, Kubel 20

Mauer 15

 

Pessimistic:

 

Arcia 20

Dozier, Plouffe 15

Parmelee, Mauer10

Kubel, Willingham 10, but traded at deadline

Sano hits 45 in AAA while not being called up.

[mikecgrimes]

Hicks and Sano tie at 26

[Chance]

I don't think Sano can hit 45 in AAA and not be called up.

 

My guess is Arcia around 33.

 

Dark Horse is Mauer.

[Willihammer]

Hammer

[Riverbrian]

Hammer

 

It better be Hammer!!!

[big dog]

Man, would I love to have Plouffe hit 25+ homers. I know it's not going to be a playoff year (ok, I'm 97% sure it's not going to be a playoff year), but I want some good things to cheer about. Trevor hitting bombs, and earning playing time somewhere, would be one of those things. Arcia hitting 20 without striking out 200 times would be another.

[Original_JB]

With fresh hands and fresh legs, I think Mauer will hit more than usual. Perhaps 20. But it is just so hard to hit homers in Target Field the opposite way, like he did for something like 19 of his homer the year he hit 29, that he will struggle to hit homers at home.

 

After watching he and Justin bomb them out during BP at will--when he was catching full time, (yeah, I know it's BP), I don't think Target Field is going to hold him back too much. At 6'5" and 230+ he made Morneausie look small (though on paper they are only 1" and 10lbs apart). So, I'm thinking Jason Werth-like with a better eye.

[kab21]

If Plouffe hits 20 or more home runs we could possibly get a decent prospect for him?

 

the problem is that Plouffe will hit 20+ HR's the ugly way. He will be streaky, play poor defense and likely will hit .240 with a .300 OBP. The hope is that you could get a top 200 prospect for that but probably nothing special.

 

I will go with Plouffe also thinking that Willy will spend time on the DL and Arcia slumps enough to play a month or two in Rochester.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can I change my pick?

[Heimer]

Champucket must have a crystal ball.

[Mill1634]

Dozier-28

Mauer-21

J-will-18

KOOBS-16

[Shane Wahl]

Dozier-28

Mauer-21

J-will-18

KOOBS-16

 

Dozier is your only realistic prediction here. The other three are going to have trouble getting to double digits because of various reasons.

[John Kelsey]

Brian Dozier: 27

Josmil Pinto: 23