Article: Rumors and Expectations

[twinsfan34]

Context is important, but saying people can't complain or be frustrated because other organizations were worse isn't a very compelling argument.

 

Also, I don't get the debate about whether it has to be prospects OR free agents. The Twins are in a position to acquire both.

 

The Pirates comment...as was the intent of the whole comment is the 'quick fix' nature.

 

What will acquiring the top 3 free agent pitchers in this class do for the Twins?

 

I did a write up concerning our pathetic offense...did you know with 3 Clayton Kershaw's last year (going of of their game performances)...the Twins still wouldn't have made the playoffs. We were that bad.

[Guest USAFChief]

I never implied to acquire them (but sounds good to me).

 

It was to play them.

Who, specifically?

[Mike Sixel]

I like how every FA is bad, and every prospect works out in most of these arguments against FA signings.

 

the risk of prospects is that nearly all of them are not good MLB players.

 

But the chief asks a good question, where do all these 23-25 year olds come from? I don't understand why you'd wait 5-7 years for that many to work out, when you can try to add good players for nothing more than money, money they have.

[Mike Sixel]

The Pirates comment...as was the intent of the whole comment is the 'quick fix' nature.

 

What will acquiring the top 3 free agent pitchers in this class do for the Twins?

 

I did a write up concerning our pathetic offense...did you know with 3 Clayton Kershaw's last year (going of of their game performances)...the Twins still wouldn't have made the playoffs. We were that bad.

 

You can't fix every problem in 1 year, does that mean they should not fix any? And, if they had three Kershaws, maybe instead of trading Span and Revere, they have them, and they deal a prospect for a legit DH/1B?

[twinsfan34]

Who, specifically?

 

Kyle Gibson. Alex Meyer. Trevor May. Vance Worley. Sam Deduno. et al.

 

When you start to turn the ship. I'm all for spending to add pieces. 2016, 2017, and 2018. I could see adding 1-2 of these FA pitchers no problem.

 

 

but back to my question...

 

How do you assess value and risk with the free agent signings? What makes it 'successful'?

 

How could this be a successful offseason in terms of results EOY 2014 and EOY 2015?

[Mike Sixel]

I'd say it is successful if they add youth for hte future, get some old guys where they aren't blocking anyone REALLY GOOD, and win more games than this year. I don't expect them to win the WS next year.....but winning 5-10 more games, and getting younger where they can, that would be a better year.

 

Well, I can see a path to maybe winning more than 81 games, but they won't be taking that. I'm trying to be realistic here.

[Riverbrian]

I don't like the term or even the thought of "Blocking Someone". If a player plays himself into a job... It's his. If someone isn't playing themselves into the job. We shouldn't be putting them in the lineup every day anyway. Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier were the only players who earned everyday status in my mind in 2013. And Dozier may be bad in 2014... We just don't know yet.

 

I want... honest to god... actual... down to earth... dogfights... for positions with this club. If we bring in a couple of players to help that happen I'm really OK with that. Just don't bring in players expecting them to have the job and keep the job because we paid them money and let them keep the job after sub-par play.

 

With that said... I'm very unimpressed with the free agents available at the top end of the scale.

 

Just bring in competition for positions and competition comes at different salary levels.

 

The way I see it... Twins players in 2013 were "Blocking themselves and themselves only".

 

Josh Willingham in 2012 OPS .890

Josh Willingham in 2013 OPS .709

 

Ryan Doumit... Trevor Plouffe... Justin Morneau... Did they deserve to play every day? I don't think so. We just didn't have any decent options to replace them with.

 

Which Willingham will we see in 2014?

 

If it's the 2012 Willingham... Suit him up... If it's the 2013 Willingham... Bench him, cut him and eat the 7 million. But we got to have someone ready to fight him for that LF Spot. Clete Thomas ain't that guy.

 

If for some reason... We actually end up with two guys who can play LF and are doing the job. That's a good problem to have but we are a ways away from that good problem to have.

 

I continue to not care about the payroll number... I care about players stepping up to the plate and earning a job period. I will worry about payroll when we actually have players worth retaining.

[Mike Sixel]

so you'd sign a 3B because Plouffe was bad last year? I'd not spend money that way. but I gotta say, that and your two names are about the only ones I am worried about "blocking" right now.

[Marta Shearing]

The Twins are negotiating with AJ. Just heard it on Barreiro. Great signing if it happens.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd say it is successful if they add youth for hte future, get some old guys where they aren't blocking anyone REALLY GOOD, and win more games than this year. I don't expect them to win the WS next year.....but winning 5-10 more games, and getting younger where they can, that would be a better year.

 

Well, I can see a path to maybe winning more than 81 games, but they won't be taking that. I'm trying to be realistic here.

 

Mike, you and the guys would be happy with 5-10 more wins? I have a really, really hard time believing that. Personally, I won't be happy until we contend for the Central again. You are correct in that they won't be taking your chosen path and signing any top tier free agents. The Twins do indeed have money coming out of their ears, but alas, there is no value in that segment of the market. The dumpster diving market on the other hand, appears to be larger than last years and does contain some opportunities for the leery shopper. As I see it, Ryan will give our favorite team a chance to win 81 games next season, assuming they get more than their fair share of lucky hops. If at All-Star time we are losing the game of inches, look for Ryan to retreat to the safe land of top 10 draft choices.

[Riverbrian]

so you'd sign a 3B because Plouffe was bad last year? I'd not spend money that way. but I gotta say, that and your two names are about the only ones I am worried about "blocking" right now.

 

River and Brian should not be blocked? I agree...

 

Yes... I'd bring in a 3B and it doesn't have to be a ton of money to do so. I just don't know who that guy is... Someone has to play the position if Plouffe... Plouffes it up in 2014 again. I'll take a D guy with no bat if Plouffe... Plouffes it up again. Anything is better than penciling him into the lineup everyday while he disappoints nearly every single day. Give me some competition for all positions.

[twinsfan34]

There are some problems with this analysis. The context of the discussion here is the viability of free agency and trades to turn around a team immediately.

 

2013 – Boston traded for Peavy mid season for a playoff run which is a very different set of circumstances. He had little to do with their post season success. He got pounded in his league championship series start. Dempster had a poor a year. The fact that he was on the roster when they won is hardly indicative of that acquisition contributing to their WS run. He was 8-9 for a dominant club with a 4.57 ERA. He pitched 3 innings in the post season with an ERA of 9.

 

2012 – Barry Zito had a WAR of .8. and an ERA of 4.15. He really sucked in 2013. He is actually a very good example of why you don’t want to sign long contract with free agent SPs. His cumulative WAR was 5.9 in 7 seasons for $126M. Yuk! Yet you use him as an example of success.

 

2011 - Carpenter was reclamation project after being out in 2003. Good move on the cardinals part but it does nothing to support the argument of signing the 5+ year guys to huge contracts. Westbrook pitched 116 innings with a K/9 of 5.11 with an ERA of 4.66. Jackson was a rental for a contending team.

 

2010 – Wellmeyer was a complete non-factor. It is silly to even include him. He was 3-5 with an ERA of 5.68 and WAR of -.8. He only pitched 58.2 innings. Zito has already been discussed.

 

2009 – Well, the Yankees can afford to buy a SP staff. They literally could buy an entire starting 5 and still have the Twins budget remaining to pay the remainder of the team.

 

You also fail to consider that these teams are 1^st, 3^rd, 7^th, and 9^th in terms of revenue. That is going to allow them to approach free agency in a very different way as compared to the Twins or other mid market clubs.

 

Great analysis.

[Major League Ready]

How could this be a successful offseason in terms of results EOY 2014 and EOY 2015?

 

I think the problem is that the benefit tends to be measured on what these players can do for us in the next couple years. Personally, I think we are asking the wrong questions.

 

Here is why. IMO, there is no way this team contends even within our division unless and until the prospects have proven themselves and are making this club a winner. By this I mean that among the current group of Arcia/Dozier/Pinto/Hicks/Florimon/Pamelee/Plouffe and the future group headed by Buxton/Sano/Meyer/Rosario/May, and others who might surprise us along with the 2013#5 enough of them have to pan out to make us a contender or very close.

 

Very best case scenario these prospects lift us to contention in 2016 but more likely 2017. So, free agent additions now make us respectable but not contenders. Therefore, I am not trading prospects right now. Buy 2-3 year FAs instead. I would much rather trade in 2016 or 2017 when we are in a much better position to determine the necessary pieces that put us in contention for several years. I am also not giving up draft picks that could provide a piece that would help toward the goal of contention. I recognize the 42-45^th pick is not real likely to provide that type of player but it does not make sense to give it up for a slightly better team now. 5 year deals right now, especially with the SPs available this year put 2017 & 2018 at risk.

 

No, we don’t need the money today but it is not a simple as putting incremental profit in the Pohlad's pockets. What some people appear to ignore is that if the player does not work out, we are stuck with that players (IE Blackburn) for the duration of the contract. The odds of that player not performing or being lost to injury go up significantly with more years, especially with SPs past 30. The difference is that these contracts are big enough to severely limit our ability to add a final piece when we actually have a team that could contend. I would much rather sign the best 2-3 year players I can get now and not risk that the players available today are performing at a level that brings us to contention in the final 2 years of their contracts. Far too many fail to jeopardize 2017 & 2018 for the sake of a few more wins for a roughly 500 team.

[twinsfan34]

I think the problem is that the benefit tends to be measured on what these players can do for us in the next couple years. Personally, I think we are asking the wrong questions.

 

Here is why. IMO, there is no way this team contends even within our division unless and until the prospects have proven themselves and are making this club a winner. By this I mean that among the current group of Arcia/Dozier/Pinto/Hicks/Florimon/Pamelee/Plouffe and the future group headed by Buxton/Sano/Meyer/Rosario/May, and others who might surprise us along with the 2013#5 enough of them have to pan out to make us a contender or very close.

 

Very best case scenario these prospects lift us to contention in 2016 but more likely 2017. So, free agent additions now make us respectable but not contenders. Therefore, I am not trading prospects right now. Buy 2-3 year FAs instead. I would much rather trade in 2016 or 2017 when we are in a much better position to determine the necessary pieces that put us in contention for several years. I am also not giving up draft picks that could provide a piece that would help toward the goal of contention. I recognize the 42-45^th pick is not real likely to provide that type of player but it does not make sense to give it up for a slightly better team now. 5 year deals right now, especially with the SPs available this year put 2017 & 2018 at risk.

 

No, we don’t need the money today but it is not a simple as putting incremental profit in the Pohlad's pockets. What some people appear to ignore is that if the player does not work out, we are stuck with that players (IE Blackburn) for the duration of the contract. The odds of that player not performing or being lost to injury go up significantly with more years, especially with SPs past 30. The difference is that these contracts are big enough to severely limit our ability to add a final piece when we actually have a team that could contend. I would much rather sign the best 2-3 year players I can get now and not risk that the players available today are performing at a level that brings us to contention in the final 2 years of their contracts. Far too many fail to jeopardize 2017 & 2018 for the sake of a few more wins for a roughly 500 team.

 

I'm on board with this. I see this as similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates scenario.

 

The meat of their offense is populated by Pirates prospects. McCutchen, Marte, Walker, Alvarez, Tabata, Mercer.

 

The pitching staff is starting to be populated from young guys from their minor league system. Locke, Cole, Watson, Wilson. (there's a ton of pitching help on the way in their farm system for the next 1-2 years)

 

Then they start to take fliers on free agent pitching as the team isn't far away.

[old nurse]

to major league ready:

 

Who said signing a FA this year has to fix the team for only the next year? Or that it has to fix all of their problems? Why can't they add a good FA pitcher for 3-5 year deal, and have him around in 2 years when hopefully they have more talent around him?

 

And, I don't get the argument. Since a FA can't fix the team completely right now, they should not sign one at all?

 

There is nothing wrong with signing a good free agent pitcher. The problem is finding one. There is the cream at the top of pitcher list. After those few, how many have worked out? Of those that worked out, other than Colon, how many are number 1 or two starters except by default?

[twinsfan34]

By 2017, we will be able to provide our starting pitchers from our farm system. I wouldn't go over 3 years. Also, I would make prospects 5-15 available for the right starting pitcher.

 

This could lead to some more interesting possibilities than the current FA crop of SPs.

[Brandon]

I can see us spending in the neighborhood of up to 15/16 million per season on a 3/4 year contract for 1 player. I do not see us going much, if any higher than that. I have our ceiling pegged at Nolasco and more likely Arroyo and or Kazmir. All 3 of those pitchers get the job done. So one of those 3 probably Arroyo at this point is likely to be signed by us. Kazmir is who I think we should go after on a 2 year deal. I can also see us signing a project player or trade (if we can match up with someone).

[Kwak]

"Put 2017 & 2018 at risk."

 

The Twins deemed 2008 "a rebuilding year" and consider what might have happened had the Twins not slashed the payroll so much from 2007 and acquired a bit more talent.

 

Are we fans expected to "just shell-out" for sub-standard talent because the GM is afraid he might jeopardize the team four years from now? Maybe he should acquire players who will actually be useful four years in the future rather than the detritus he has been signing?

[Rosterman]

There is a need to spend money to put butts in the seats. You need to sell season tickets. You need to offer hope. When you have bad starters and are losing games in the first inning, people DO stop coming to the games. On the flipside of spending 52% of income on players...when attendance and TV.radio and concessions and other stuff fall, then you might not have 52% to spend because of overall overhead (heaven forbid you open only half the concession stands...wait...that did happen at times). You have money to spend on players. You spend it. It doesn't carry over. You don't know if you are going to win or lose (see Toronto in 2013, even the Angels). You have to be prepared to eat salary. The Twins ate Mauer for x-amount of games last year even. But you have to do your best effort to put a sellable product on the field. Build it, and they will come...it helps if they win!

[#24 Sano]

I have to say, we should contact Milwaukee on Aoki. Aoki is a lead off hitter something the twins need, he's got a good arm and good defense, He has a good amount of speed (20-30 sb guy) and not to mention his team friendly contract as he only makes like 1/23rd of Mauers contract. His flaw is three things: He's getting older up in age (32), doesn't have good RBI or hr numbers, and he's on his finally year of his contract (which means we should get him if we think we can contend in 2014). Who to trade for him... Hmmm...

I guess we could give Deduno to them as Deduno is not really a proven starter but has some success in the bigs, or we could give up a relief pitcher maybe Burton as we have some depth in our bullpen. If we were to trade Deduno we could give Gibson, Worley, Diamond, or Hendriks. The thing i like about this trade is that if we did sign ellsbury(doubtful)we could put him in right and move Arcia to left. If I was to make a blueprint this would be on it but my blueprint is crazy I have a very creative imagination. (Note: this trade will not work if we don't plan to try to contend so pretty much 1/75 chance)

[jharaldson]

There are some problems with this analysis. The context of the discussion here is the viability of free agency and trades to turn around a team immediately.

 

I agree that I could have provided addition context. I was responding to the following posts:

 

These are my timelines for when the Twins pitching prospects will arrive in the big leagues. If they don't make it by the year given or the following year - they won't be anything more than average to just not cutting it. It's the years listed (+1) or break.

 

2014: Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May (late)

2015: Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, DJ Baxendale

2016: Jose Berrios, Tyler Jones, Brett Lee, Felix Jorge, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stephen Gonslaves, Corey Williams, Michael Sulbaran

2017: Yorman Landa, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero

 

We should be able to take care of our starting pitching needs internally.

 

Both comments implied that the Twins only need a FA pitcher for a couple of years because all spots in our rotation would eventually be filled up by guys produced in our minor league system. I think that is wrong and free agent starting pitching will always be a part of winning teams.

 

 

I also never stated that all free agents would be aces signed to 5+ year contacts, just that they would fill a role on a winning team. Some may be top of the rotation guys, others might bring stability to the back of the rotation during the regular season. Some might be signed to short term contracts to prove they have value, some may be long term 9 figure contracts.

 

 

Do you believe that any team that wins the World Series over the next 5 years will do so without any contribution from a free agent starting pitcher?

[Siehbiscuit]

The worst thing for most organization's not named the Yankees or Dodgers is to be strapped with bad contracts.

 

I would rather see the Twins go after multiple reclamation projects this season instead of the guys like Santana, Jimenez or Nolasco. Kazmir could be had on a 2 year but instead add 2-3 million on the top of annual salary. Same with Josh Johnson. Worst case we overspend on them and they bust, but its over in two years. Blackburn's deal was only $4.5-5.5M, but that thing lasted like 19 years! Going back to the Cardinals and its philosophy; drafting, signing & developing young talent is the foundation of an organization. Supplement through free agency talent on high upside, but short-term deals (see Beltran, Berkman and even Furcal). All of these deals worked. Furcal was very injury prone, but worst case, they only "ate" the bad salary like one year. He was serviceable to good the others. Spend more on less years.

[twinsfan34]

 

Do you believe that any team that wins the World Series over the next 5 years will do so without any contribution from a free agent starting pitcher?

 

The Cardinals would qualify and you'll likely see them in the World Series contention for the next 5 years.

 

The 2010 & 2012 SF Giants had Barry Zito, but he didn't pitch much in the playoffs and world series. It was on Cain, Lincecum, & Bumgarner - all system guys.

 

I don't see the Twins signing a FA pitcher this year that would be 'the guy' who puts us over the top and is still contributing in 2016 or 2017.

 

If it's 2017 and Meyer just won 15, Stewart 14, Thorpe 14, and Romero, Berrios, and Eades showed promise...I'd be trading for David Price to trying to sign Tanaka to Arroyo.

 

But, we're at very different circumstances.

 

I'd be curious to know this stat, how many FA pitchers, signed 4-5 years earlier from another team, contributed to a playoff run, two, to a world series?

[Guest USAFChief]

 

I'd be curious to know this stat, how many FA pitchers, signed 4-5 years earlier from another team, contributed to a playoff run, two, to a world series?

I can name one off the top of my head...John Lackey.

[Halsey Hall]

River and Brian should not be blocked? I agree...

 

Yes... I'd bring in a 3B and it doesn't have to be a ton of money to do so. I just don't know who that guy is... Someone has to play the position if Plouffe... Plouffes it up in 2014 again. I'll take a D guy with no bat if Plouffe... Plouffes it up again. Anything is better than penciling him into the lineup everyday while he disappoints nearly every single day. Give me some competition for all positions.

 

Amen. Not expecting much next season, the first thing I do this off season is get someone to replace Plouffe. He MUST be gone! Yes, he does disappoint nearly every single day. I've been infracted, or scolded on here for stating so before, obviously not stating it in a way that wasn't polite enough. But, IMO, Plouffe isn't a ML player, and I'd much rather watch anyone else, even if they did disappoint nearly everyday, just for the change.

[beckmt]

I agree that spending on FA pitching on 1-3 year contracts is best. 2 would be the number and I also would add dollars to get the 1-2 year reclaimation projects to come here. Kazmir I would risk 3 only if I had to, Johnson 1 year with an option hopefully, Johan if it comes to that 1 year with an option. Twins need to put people in seats and give the fans hope, some signings will take care of that. And as stated above signings of no greater than 3 years do not block any pitchers.

[TheLeviathan]

There is a need to spend money to put butts in the seats. You need to sell season tickets. !

 

This is a good point that isn't being emphasized enough. The Twins need to invest in their own product if they want fans to do the same.

[JB_Iowa]

 

I'd be curious to know this stat, how many FA pitchers, signed 4-5 years earlier from another team, contributed to a playoff run, two, to a world series?

 

I'm assuming that by "contributed to" you define it as "actually played in" but at this point, and with the condition of the Twins staff, there is another contribution that could be far more valuable.

 

That is mentoring young pitchers. When you read stories about playoff teams -- particularly thinking of specific comments from Tigers and Rays pitchers but there were others as well -- they often talk about how important it was to learn from a teammate (or former teammate). That's clearly true in terms of the way Scherzer and Fister and Porcello talk about Verlander. I also remember reading it about David Price and James Shields and Edwin Jackson.

 

There is something to be learned from a good, veteran pitcher that can't be learned from a pitching coach. It seems to be primarily in how the player conducts himself. To me, that type of mentoring (even if you don't call it that) can have long-lasting effects that DO "contribute" to a playoff run or world series -- even if the player is no longer on the team.