The Twins Have a Starting Pitching Crisis Brewing for 2028

[C-Gangster]

Where the **** is joe ryan?

[MeleMouth]

3 hours ago, LyleCole said:

While the word "crisis" is poorly chosen, the Twins have a serious lack of talent in their pitching pipeline.  I have pointed this out several times when I have posited that the Twins should have entered rebuilding mode before the 2026 season, trading Ryan and Buxton to improve the quality and depth of their pitching prospects.  

What the Twins have is a significant imbalance between the maturation of their positional prospects (Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lackey, and others) and their pitching prospects.  The most likely result of all of this will be a continuation of mediocre outcomes and a team that is not a true contender to win the World Series, or even a playoff series, or even a playoff game.  

 

In 2028, hopefully, Abel and Prielipp will be in their third years in the big leagues and hitting their primes. Bradley will have settled into being a solid above-average pitcher, and at least one of Rojas and Matthews will have become at least a solid #4. 

2028 would also be a reasonable year to expect Jenkins, Lackey, etc. to start becoming above-average players.

I agree that the organization needs more talent, especially high-end talent, but I don't see the same timing imbalance.

[Brandon]

I don't see the crisis.  If the Twins lose all 4 pitchers in FA, they still have a 5 man rotation for 2028.  Maybe resign 1 of the FA starters to an extension so we have more depth but things look alright going into 2028.  

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, LyleCole said:

While the word "crisis" is poorly chosen, the Twins have a serious lack of talent in their pitching pipeline. 

"Crisis" might turn out to be pretty spot-on come 2028.

I'm a bit stunned by the number of folks here who seem to think the Twins already have starting pitching depth. They don't have anything remotely close to reliable, consistent depth. After 2027, it will be Taj Bradley and an awful lot of question marks. There is no elite pitching depth anywhere in the farm system, and the Twins have no recent history of producing top-tier starters or signing top-tier starters.

And yes, 2028 is a ways away. But to have starting pitching depth by 2028, the Twins need top-tier trade chips. They don't have them anymore.

The best years of Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez are coming up soon. It would be a shame to see them struggle to score enough runs to support a very lackluster, shaky rotation.

[Brandon]

Maybe the crisis is if the Twins offer all 4 a QO so we get more draft picks but all 4 accept the offer and stay causing a spike in payroll and a Pohlad indigestion.  

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

In 2028, hopefully, Abel and Prielipp will be in their third years in the big leagues and hitting their primes.

You realize that these are perhaps the two greatest injury question marks in any MLB rotation, right? I mean, Prielipp showed a lot this year, but that injury track record of his is rough. So is Abel's.

Hope is great to have. But no successful team would bank on either of those guys as being anything but exchangeable #4-#5 starters. If you get more, great. Chances are you'll get a lot less.

[TL]

Odds are an injury sidelines 2 of those 8 in 2028 and another 2 will be headed for the bullpen. That leaves 4, meaning you need at least 3 additional arms to go 7 deep. Draft a college pitcher with their first pick this year and find 2 more in trades or free agency. Extend Pablo if you can. Plenty of time to work it out but definitely more unsettled than the position players. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

I am still trying to figure out how having too much potential SP depth is a problem...

There is no reason they won't re-sign at least one of the Lopez/Kremer/Ober group (enough of the dumping on Ober, he is a reliable 4/5). If not, then they will get moved next year.

This rotation:
Bradley
Lopez/Ober/Kremer
Prelipp
Abel
Matthews
Rojas

Looks like potentially two SP2 (Lopez, Bradley), two SP3 (Prelipp, Abel), followed by SP4/5s. Could Bradley or Prelipp make a jump? Sure. Could they use a true SP1? Couldn't every team use an SP1? I am not even touching on the other guys mentioned in the article...

Looking at the totality of the Twins problems, starting pitching doesn't feel to be near the top of the list right now. Even two years down the line.

Starting Pitching cannot be taken for granted, this seems to be the premise.

Abel - Prielipp are a couple guys that showed very nice promise in bursts BUT the assumption that both or either will absolutely be available with good health in either ‘27 or ‘28 is the issue.

Going into Spring Training this year most were just hoping Prielipp made it through the summer without injury ………. I don’t think anyone saw him throwing the innings and  getting the starts he ended up with in ‘26, not with his history of physical ailments.

Festa - Ober - Lopez - Ryan - Abel - Matthews - Bradley - Prielipp - Morris - Rojas ………..all 6 on the Top Line were injured for varying periods this year and most for significant chunks of time ….. 4 arms issues, leg issue, & blisters were the varying ailments. Ended up being so thin that they needed to trade for Kremer at the deadline. 

I guess the point is there needs to be, in modern baseball, a plan to have 10 guys assumed to be at MLB level capabilities going into Spring Training…………differing levels of capabilities but presumed capable w/o being a huge stretch.

[ewen21]

On 10/16/2026 at 8:00 AM, DJL44 said:

The Brewers would be figuring out how to trade all four starters with expiring contracts for new talent.

While we sit here and project them forward through rose-colored glasses.  I am "bearish" on Twins starting pitching coming though our pipeline until I am proven otherwise.

[MeleMouth]

10 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

You realize that these are perhaps the two greatest injury question marks in any MLB rotation, right? I mean, Prielipp showed a lot this year, but that injury track record of his is rough. So is Abel's.

Hope is great to have. But no successful team would bank on either of those guys as being anything but exchangeable #4-#5 starters. If you get more, great. Chances are you'll get a lot less.

The topic being discussed is whether there is a timing imbalance between the Twins' pitching and hitting prospects. Similar risks of injury or failure to reach a ceiling apply to the top position player prospects, such as Jenkins and Culpepper.

[Linus]

My bigger concern isn’t 2028 specifically rather the overall poor level of pitching in the farm system. The cupboard is bare. 

[thelanges5]

Trade Ryan, extend Pablo, sign Skubal. 

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

You realize that these are perhaps the two greatest injury question marks in any MLB rotation, right? I mean, Prielipp showed a lot this year, but that injury track record of his is rough. So is Abel's.

Hope is great to have. But no successful team would bank on either of those guys as being anything but exchangeable #4-#5 starters. If you get more, great. Chances are you'll get a lot less.

Yeah, since Prielipp had a UCL tear 3.5 years ago, he's super question mark. Meanwhile, he just pitched as many innings as Joe Ryan and hasn't had any significant injury since his UCL tear to start 2023.

Abel is definitely an injury risk. Can't seem to get over 80-110 innings or so, year after year.

[Twins GFP]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Starting Pitching cannot be taken for granted, this seems to be the premise.

Abel - Prielipp are a couple guys that showed very nice promise in bursts BUT the assumption that both or either will absolutely be available with good health in either ‘27 or ‘28 is the issue.

Going into Spring Training this year most were just hoping Prielipp made it through the summer without injury ………. I don’t think anyone saw him throwing the innings and  getting the starts he ended up with in ‘26, not with his history of physical ailments.

Festa - Ober - Lopez - Ryan - Abel - Matthews - Bradley - Prielipp - Morris - Rojas ………..all 6 on the Top Line were injured for varying periods this year and most for significant chunks of time ….. 4 arms issues, leg issue, & blisters were the varying ailments. Ended up being so thin that they needed to trade for Kremer at the deadline. 

I guess the point is there needs to be, in modern baseball, a plan to have 10 guys assumed to be at MLB level capabilities going into Spring Training…………differing levels of capabilities but presumed capable w/o being a huge stretch.

Cleveland's success this year was helped by the fact they had 4 SP start 30+ games and their 5th started 21.

The Dodgers had 8 SP start 10+ games, with another at 9 starts.

Milwaukee had 7 SP start 10+ games with another at 9 starts.

Luck aside, I agree you need to have 8-9 guys that are at least SP4/5 in the system to be successful. The Twins SP outlook appears to have a high floor, but the ceiling might be lower than hoped. Regardless, I would not use the article as saying the Twins have a problem with SP depth.

[LyleCole]

12 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

In 2028, hopefully, Abel and Prielipp will be in their third years in the big leagues and hitting their primes. Bradley will have settled into being a solid above-average pitcher, and at least one of Rojas and Matthews will have become at least a solid #4. 

2028 would also be a reasonable year to expect Jenkins, Lackey, etc. to start becoming above-average players.

I agree that the organization needs more talent, especially high-end talent, but I don't see the same timing imbalance.

You are counting on high upside for everybody and no injuries, and even those hopes cannot fill the entire pitching roster.  And based on the actual evidence we have seen, while you can put out a rotation with Abel, Matthews, and Prielipp plus Bradley and some #5 starter, that really isn't a good enough rotation to be a real contender.  That rotation isn't as good as our current rotation.

[MeleMouth]

36 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

You are counting on high upside for everybody and no injuries, and even those hopes cannot fill the entire pitching roster.  And based on the actual evidence we have seen, while you can put out a rotation with Abel, Matthews, and Prielipp plus Bradley and some #5 starter, that really isn't a good enough rotation to be a real contender.  That rotation isn't as good as our current rotation.

That's what developing pitchers means. Besides, for 2028, what else can you effectively do now? You can do like Arizona did a couple of times and sign top free agents like Madison Bumgarner and Corbin Burnes, but then you're just exchanging your risk - from the risk of non-development to the risk of injury or decline. 

These five pitchers are highly unlikely to be the five primary starters on the 2028 team. That doesn't mean that it's a "crisis" that needs to be addressed today. 

We have no idea if, in 2028, they will be better or worse than our current rotation. Again, that's what developing pitchers means. Overall, it would be a bigger mistake to project a 2028 staff based on how a pitcher performed in 2026.

[twinfan]

You can never have a "crisis" when you have several possible choices. Bradley had a great year but let's see what he does next year. The only club with a "crisis" is the Cubs who could lose their entire starting staff. They are there for the picking. The Mariners have too much pitching right now and starters like Kirby could be had with the right deal. As far as 2028, I'd be more concerned with '27- if there is a '27. Batten down the hatches.

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You make a legitimate point. 

The timing isn't smooth or ideal. Our young position players will be getting major league work in. Our young pitchers may have to wait a little if we attack 2027 with our 4 starters in their last year of control. 

The front office will have to make another decision.

Bet on your starting pitching and go for it

or

Trade and make room for younger arms. Let them grow along with the young position players. 

 

We know what Tommy boy wants. 

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't every team assuming the health of their top players in planning? Other than the super rich teams?

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

That's what developing pitchers means. Besides, for 2028, what else can you effectively do now? You can do like Arizona did a couple of times and sign top free agents like Madison Bumgarner and Corbin Burnes, but then you're just exchanging your risk - from the risk of non-development to the risk of injury or decline. 

These five pitchers are highly unlikely to be the five primary starters on the 2028 team. That doesn't mean that it's a "crisis" that needs to be addressed today. 

We have no idea if, in 2028, they will be better or worse than our current rotation. Again, that's what developing pitchers means. Overall, it would be a bigger mistake to project a 2028 staff based on how a pitcher performed in 2026.

Again, I think the word crisis is an overstatement but what you present is basically impossible.  For the Twins to become anywhere competitive they have only four real choices for roster development:

1.  Internal player development ;

2.  Prospects acquired by trading (potential) high cost veterans ;

3.  Minor free agent signings  and  ;

4.  Minor trades.

There isn't a major free agent signing that is coming down the pike, and one reason for that is even if ownership was willing to spend that kind of money there are few high end free agents that want to come to the franchise in Minnesota.  

And your last statement is a lame argument.  Of course, no one knows for certain if the 2028 staff will be better or worse.  When you are dealing with decisions that involve the future there is uncertainty.  HOWEVER, the lack of certainty does not mean you ignore objective probabilities, and the probability of the 2028 starting rotation being better than the 2026 one is very low.  Why?   Almost the PROJECTED starting rotation would be the same, with the likely exception of Joe Ryan.  

When evaluating the projected 2028 rotation one easy way of thinking of how it will place the Twins relative to the best teams in major league baseball is to look at the 1-2-3-4-5 type status of the rotation.   Taj Bradley had a pretty good first full season as a starter, but as a #1 starter is he on the level of the existing competitive teams?  The answer is almost certainly no.  Then their other guys are at least "one rotation spot lower than what a competitive staff would have them i.e. our 2nd-3rd starter would be a 4th starter on a high end roation.  Our 4th starter, the 5th.  And the balance of the rotation would probably not be part of any real competitive teams rotation.

And, as I have pointed out, are there really any high end prospects that follow up those guys?   Maybe Riley Quick?  But he struggled to find the plate this season.  I think Rojas has some potential, maybe the highest of any of the pitchers with rookie status still intact, but the Twins cannot seem to finalize a development path for him.  Their organization seems to not really be able to develop young high school arms (Dasan Hill, Charlie Soto) and is filled with mid-level college arms that they cannot get over the AA hurdle.  

And, we have not even come close to addressing the bullpen.

 

[MeleMouth]

30 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Again, I think the word crisis is an overstatement but what you present is basically impossible.  For the Twins to become anywhere competitive they have only four real choices for roster development:

1.  Internal player development ;

2.  Prospects acquired by trading (potential) high cost veterans ;

3.  Minor free agent signings  and  ;

4.  Minor trades.

There isn't a major free agent signing that is coming down the pike, and one reason for that is even if ownership was willing to spend that kind of money there are few high end free agents that want to come to the franchise in Minnesota.  

And your last statement is a lame argument.  Of course, no one knows for certain if the 2028 staff will be better or worse.  When you are dealing with decisions that involve the future there is uncertainty.  HOWEVER, the lack of certainty does not mean you ignore objective probabilities, and the probability of the 2028 starting rotation being better than the 2026 one is very low.  Why?   Almost the PROJECTED starting rotation would be the same, with the likely exception of Joe Ryan.  

When evaluating the projected 2028 rotation one easy way of thinking of how it will place the Twins relative to the best teams in major league baseball is to look at the 1-2-3-4-5 type status of the rotation.   Taj Bradley had a pretty good first full season as a starter, but as a #1 starter is he on the level of the existing competitive teams?  The answer is almost certainly no.  Then their other guys are at least "one rotation spot lower than what a competitive staff would have them i.e. our 2nd-3rd starter would be a 4th starter on a high end roation.  Our 4th starter, the 5th.  And the balance of the rotation would probably not be part of any real competitive teams rotation.

And, as I have pointed out, are there really any high end prospects that follow up those guys?   Maybe Riley Quick?  But he struggled to find the plate this season.  I think Rojas has some potential, maybe the highest of any of the pitchers with rookie status still intact, but the Twins cannot seem to finalize a development path for him.  Their organization seems to not really be able to develop young high school arms (Dasan Hill, Charlie Soto) and is filled with mid-level college arms that they cannot get over the AA hurdle.  

And, we have not even come close to addressing the bullpen.

 

Sounds like you think they should just give up hope for 2028. According to you, there's little chance that someone like Abel or Prielipp will be better in 2028 than 2026 Joe Ryan, there's nobody better coming through the pipeline, the opportunity to trade veterans and develop better pitchers may have passed - and the pipeline doesn't really develop pitchers anyway, and they won't sign anybody.