There’s a Real Path for Vahn Lackey to Reach the Twins Next Season

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Two things prevent Lackey from playing for the Twins in 2027 - 1) even great catchers usually don't move that fast through the minors, and 2) the Twins don't move their prospects real fast under this administration.

It's unlikely that Lackey is playing for the Twins in 2027, but the idea the Twins don't move prospects quickly through the organization is based more on hype and whining than evidence that they slow play their prospects substantially more than other organizations.

Culpepper only played 1 full season in the minors, and in the equivalent of less than 2 full seasons worth of games moved 5 levels. (and would have been up in MLB sooner if he hadn't picked up an injury)

Keaschall had a similar path and was aggressively promoted despite a significant arm injury.

For all the complaining about waiting too long on Jenkins, he's still in MLB at 21.

Twins move up prospects quickly that they think are ready for more. Won't be surprised at all if Houston starts next season in AAA and is looking at the Culpepper path.

2027 arrival is very very aggressive and seems unlikely just because he hasn't played a game above A-ball yet, catchers usually need time to develop their skill sets, and he was just drafted this year. Seems likely that he starts the season in AA in 2027, but his movement up will be based more on what he shows he can do and what he's ready for rather than the idea that the Twins have some organizational philosophy about not moving prospects quickly through the minors.

[Peter]

Jeffers won’t be with twins next season-diaw and caratini will be. Lackey will be up in 2 years and once that happens look out!!! Twins will be force and one of best teams!!! 

[JCT66]

You say

“They could always give him the qualifying offer, which would be worth roughly $24 million, but it's unlikely. The only scenario where it would make sense is if the Twins knew for a fact that Jeffers was going to turn it down.”

 

Why is it unlikely?  And why does it only make sense if they knew that Jeffers was going to turn it down?  I don’t know if it is unlikely or not, but it seems imminently sensible to me. If he turns it down you get the compensatory pick. If he accepts you have arguably the best offensive catcher in the league for 1 year at $24 million.  Trade Caratini and the cost is only ~$17 million. 
 

and in 2028 Lackey is hopefully your new catcher. 

[TNtwins85]

21 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

"He also has already drawn 23 walks, compared to just 21 strikeouts."

This indicates very little for a college player in the low minors, other than he's not swinging very much, and Lackey isn't, because his HiA swing rate is below 30%. His contact percentage in HiA is 75%; it would be good for that to be higher, particularly for such a selective hitter. For comparison, at the same age and level, Rutschman was swinging at 39% of pitches and making contact on 81.5% of his swings. With a few exceptions, letting a lot of pitches go doesn't work as well as players move up the ladder and face better pitchers.

Why do we have to hype every new top prospect as some kind of semi-savior, where he'll be in the majors in 12 months and a frequent all-star a year or two from that? It doesn't do anyone any good and I would argue that, although it kind of feels good, it's actually somewhat harmful.

I'm not saying there's no chance for Lackey to become a great player, but that the blue sky in this article and others is based on a 100% outcome where everything goes great. Maybe that will happen, but history suggests that a median outcome for a player with Lackey's background is something like becoming a little better than Ryan Jeffers, who's a good player, but not an all-star. Writing up 100% outcomes is not analysis, but hope.

I would tend to agree and yes, a Ryan Jeffers outcome would be a great outcome. Yet, let’s be honest. Vahn Lackey is wayyy more athletic, competed and thrived against much better competition in college. More polished defensively, better arm. He’s just better. Also, he’s showing exactly what he’s needed to show since being promoted. He’s on the same track as Culpepper and Houston with slightly better results.

As far as talent and results he’s on the Jenkins level above the Culpepper/Houston level. ‘27 is pushing it yes, but possible as the article states. If he starts ‘27 in A+ and does just what he’s doing right now he’ll be in AA May/June. A red hot June/July gets him to St.Paul and at that point if he holds his own or better he’s in play for an August/September call up. That’s a  75th percentile outcome I believe with anything higher being he just completely dominates A+,AA and AAA. In which case he’s a top 5/10 prospect globally and gets called up June/July. Rare but possible. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

No chance Jeffers would accept a one year deal. The Yankees are desperate for a catcher and will give him a 4 year contract at something like 15 mil. /year.

[TNtwins85]

48 minutes ago, JCT66 said:

You say

“They could always give him the qualifying offer, which would be worth roughly $24 million, but it's unlikely. The only scenario where it would make sense is if the Twins knew for a fact that Jeffers was going to turn it down.”

 

Why is it unlikely?  And why does it only make sense if they knew that Jeffers was going to turn it down?  I don’t know if it is unlikely or not, but it seems imminently sensible to me. If he turns it down you get the compensatory pick. If he accepts you have arguably the best offensive catcher in the league for 1 year at $24 million.  Trade Caratini and the cost is only ~$17 million. 
 

and in 2028 Lackey is hopefully your new catcher. 

It was reported around the deadline that he was unlikely to accept the QO. Also, he’s been gearing up for this opportunity for a year. You don’t switch to Boras as your agent a year ahead of free agency and not plan on hitting the market. In the rare case he does that’s almost a perfect scenario. 
either way I don’t think you can get anything for Caratini unless a team is desperate in spring training. 
 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's unlikely that Lackey is playing for the Twins in 2027, but the idea the Twins don't move prospects quickly through the organization is based more on hype and whining than evidence that they slow play their prospects substantially more than other organizations.

Culpepper only played 1 full season in the minors, and in the equivalent of less than 2 full seasons worth of games moved 5 levels. (and would have been up in MLB sooner if he hadn't picked up an injury)

Keaschall had a similar path and was aggressively promoted despite a significant arm injury.

For all the complaining about waiting too long on Jenkins, he's still in MLB at 21.

Twins move up prospects quickly that they think are ready for more. Won't be surprised at all if Houston starts next season in AAA and is looking at the Culpepper path.

2027 arrival is very very aggressive and seems unlikely just because he hasn't played a game above A-ball yet, catchers usually need time to develop their skill sets, and he was just drafted this year. Seems likely that he starts the season in AA in 2027, but his movement up will be based more on what he shows he can do and what he's ready for rather than the idea that the Twins have some organizational philosophy about not moving prospects quickly through the minors.

How dare you bringing facts to the conversation!  

[D.C Twins]

21 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

He will be our greatest drafted catcher & future HOF. Pleasure to watch defensively and his swing is Legendary! Lets figure out where at Target Field to place his statue. He is everything Twins fans want in a catcher. He will end up Minnesota's most loved after Walleye, TatorTot Hotdish & Sloppy Joes. Excited to see how he does in Spring training.

Did Peter hack PuckettPond's acount?!

[HarmonK03]

19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Two things prevent Lackey from playing for the Twins in 2027 - 1) even great catchers usually don't move that fast through the minors, and 2) the Twins don't move their prospects real fast under this administration.

Will this administration be here next year, if Tom P. has a clue they won't be.

[BrainerdGuy]

Wynegar:  I love this game so much I would play for free!

Calvin:  I really like this kid!

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

No chance Jeffers would accept a one year deal. The Yankees are desperate for a catcher and will give him a 4 year contract at something like 15 mil. /year.

I tend to agree.  This is the payday window for Jeffers.  I suspect the Yankees or someone else will offer a large multi-year deal.

And this is why you make the QO, just to harvest the draft pick. 

And if Jeffers surprises the Twins and takes the one year QO?  That's ok.  The 2027 season may or may not start on time anyway.  Worst case is Jeffers provides a 1-year bridge to the next Twins catcher.  Or half a year, because if he is performing decently he can be traded in July 2027 if the Twins are not in contention.  Twins would then get more assets for an investment of approximately 12 million.  By July next year they will have a far better idea of how ready/not ready Lackey, Diaw, Tait, etc may be. 

[killercarewoliva]

On 9/4/2026 at 11:45 AM, LambchoP said:

He's played 8 games in high A. I'd be shooting for 2028 at best. Meaning we need a legit catching tandem for the next two years. Rolling with Caratini and Jackson is going to leave us weak at that position. Maybe Diaw will be ready sometime in '27....

I might not be the smartest guy in the world on this, but Jackson hits the baseball very well and is an adequate catcher unlike his past. somehow he's doing well when he gets the chance and he rarely gets to chance which means his average should be very low but it's not. we see constant articles. advocating players moving to the major leagues because they're mentally. statistics are so great. then they get to the major leagues. come to find out those pictures have a lot more movement on them and the batters with the 400 average in AAA find it real difficult to have any sort of adequate average of at the major league level. we all love Mr. Jenkins. he wears those his nice t-shirt with Jesus on it. a great young man, but it's back in average so far is .130. I feel 100% sure he's going to be a great major. leaguer but trying to put Mr. lackey on the major league team next season by what he's doing in single A I mean who is writing this stuff?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Only looking at numbers, but Diaw has played all of 27 games at catcher in aa this year. He has had as many games in the outfield and more with DH combined 27 in the outfield, 10 more at DH.

He has thrown out 6 of 64 runners against him while catching. That seems bad. 64 attempts in 27 games? Really?!?!

Who here is really certain he is capable of catching at the major league level? All reports I’ve read of him say he needs a lot of work to get to average defensively. That’s not someone I want to catch, at least not yet 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

...He has thrown out 6 of 64 runners against him while catching. That seems bad. 64 attempts in 27 games? Really?!?!...

No, it's worse than that. He's thrown out 10 of 133 this year. Better to not even try to catch attempted base stealers. Too high a likelihood the ball winds up in the outfield and the runner scores...

Cedar Rapids = 6 CS, 58 successful (6/64)

Wichita = 4 CS, 65 successful (4/69)

[Linus]

It’s possible but not likely. To create these type of expectations is how fans get disappointed. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

No, it's worse than that. He's thrown out 10 of 133 this year. Better to not even try to catch attempted base stealers. Too high a likelihood the ball winds up in the outfield and the runner scores...

Cedar Rapids = 6 CS, 58 successful (6/64)

Wichita = 4 CS, 65 successful (4/69)

Yup, that's unplayable in so many ways. I know some of throwing out baserunners is on the pitcher, but this number is difficult to look away from.