Dean Kremer Has Pitched Better For Minnesota Than Baltimore—That Doesn’t Mean He’s Good

[Cody Schoenmann]

Recalled from Triple-A Norfolk on April 13, Dean Kremer joined the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation, with intentions of performing like the steady, above-average right-handed starting pitcher he was in 2025 before losing a rotation-spot battle to Zach Eflin in spring training. The 30 year old resembled his 2025-self, generating a 4.09 ERA, 5.45 FIP, with an astounding 37.5% strikeout rate over 11 innings pitched in two starts in mid-April. The long-time Oriole was however placed on the 15-day IL with a right quad strain on April 23.

The right-handed starter was transfered to the 60-day IL before rejoining Baltimore’s rotation on July 1. Kremer struggled upon returning, netting a 7.56 ERA, 6.56 FIP, and a less inspiring 20% strikeout rate over 25 innings pitched. The struggling veteran appeared to be at threat of being designated for assignment by Baltimore, given he no longer possessed minor league options after being recalled earlier in the season. Yet, Baltimore traded him to the Minnesota Twins on July 31 for left-handed hitting outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes. 

The veteran immediately slotted into Minnesota’s five-pitcher rotation, making his Twins debut on August 5. He performed well for his new club over his first two starts, manufacturing a 1.50 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and a 22% strikeout over 12 innings pitched. Yet, he has quickly regressed to his early-season form over his past three starts, netting a 6.75 ERA, 5.47 FIP, and a 21.2% strikeout rate over 14 2/3 innings pitched. 

Understandably, Twins Territory immediately was immediately enamored by Kremer, given the spectacle of him being a trade deadline acquisition and performing at an elite rate over his first two starts with his new club. The organization’s pitching development staff also implemented meaningful changes to his arsenal, having him rely on four-seamer more, while using his splitter as his go-to offspeed pitch. While these adjustments were sound and worked well over a two-game sample, Kremer has largely remained ineffective in Minnesota, netting a 4.39 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and a 23-to-11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 2/3 innings pitched. 

Kremer’s greatest hindrance this season is his inability to limit walks. In Baltimore, he walked 7.2% of hitters this, which is around league-average. Yet, he was getting hit hard and often, resulting in his aforementioned bloated metrics. With Minnesota, however, he has walked 10.3% of hitters—an untenable rate.

The only major league starting pitchers who can sustain success in the majors while walking hitters over ten-percent of the time are ones with elite stuff. Think Dylan Cease or Taj Bradley. Kremer, however, has zero plus pitches despite sporting a six-pitch arsenal. Possessing catastrophically poor command, below-average stuff, and a knack for allowing home runs (15 over 62 2/3 innings), it is no surprise that Kremer has been one of the worst starting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season. 

I don’t fault Twins decision-makes for making the trade. The club was in dire need of starting pitching depth and Reyes is an 18-year-old lottery ticket sporting a 79 wRC+ with Baltimore’s Single-A affiliate. Still, if Kremer’s struggles continue the last month of the season, Twins decision-makers would be wise not to non-tender Kremer this offseason, quickly cutting ties with the right-handed starter targeted one month ago.

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[Althebum82]

The team really has no other option but to give him a chance to figure it out.  For Pete’s sake we are listing Morris as our starter tonight.

[djvang]

He melts down in a hurry. Always have someone warmed up.

[DJL44]

“I don’t fault Twins decision-makers for making the trade.”

I will. They’re so focused on “raising the floor” that they spent prospects to bring in a starting pitcher not good enough to win a playoff game. When you have a borderline team, you can’t “raise the floor” into the playoffs. You have to raise the ceiling.

[bean5302]

Kremer is a #6 rotation arm now that his velo has dropped, and that's what should have been expected. The Twins traded the equivalent of a PTBNL to get him and he's Arb eligible next year still.

He's had 3 productive starts vs 2 bad starts. That's way better than the Twins should have expected. Just as good as Gausman has with the Cubs.

There may be some value moving Kremer to the 'pen and seeing some velo increase since he has no options left. 100% a non-tender candidate if we don't work out a below arb expected contract.

[PuckettPond]

If Twins would have sold @ the trade deadline we would be having a more positive conversation. How did the Joe Ryan trade workout?

[LyleCole]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

“I don’t fault Twins decision-makers for making the trade.”

I will. They’re so focused on “raising the floor” that they spent prospects to bring in a starting pitcher not good enough to win a playoff game. When you have a borderline team, you can’t “raise the floor” into the playoffs. You have to raise the ceiling.

I essentially disagree.   Kremer is a 4th-5th starting pitcher and has a reasonable record at that level.  He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

The fact is, the 4/5 starting pitchers in the major leagues have good games and bad games.   I think the Twins should plug him into the rotation in 2027.   The worst case scenario is that he just isn't that good and there are better options to put into the rotation although I am not sure exactly what those options are at the moment (perhaps someone has some ideas).   The best case scenario is that he pitches well to the deadline either helping the Twins to a playoff level record, or failing that, he is a pitcher that we can more than recoup our investment in.  

That is a very reasonable set of outcomes for trading a young, lower level, international, and outside the top-25 prospect list like Reyes, who in 95 plate appearances for Baltimore's A minor league team he has a .611 OPS.   

And, while I usually am an advocate of not using half way measures in building a roster (either rebuild or compete), I just do not think the Twins system has enough rotational arms to fill out the 2027 starting rotation.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Kremer is a 4th/5th with upside but is prone to blow ups.  However,  1 to 2 of those blow ups I put squarely on the Manager.  He gives you 5 good innings against a good hitting team and they tried to squeeze one more inning out of him.  Come on man, that was a great outing.   He has a FIP of 4.06 with the Twins and a 1.12 Whip.  The concern is the rising walks but with making some tweaks he has actually done pretty well.    I still think he could be a #3 with some additional tweaks in the offseason so I definitely think we offer arbitration.  I see the Twins keeping him over Ober.  

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

I essentially disagree.   Kremer is a 4th-5th starting pitcher and has a reasonable record at that level.  He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

The fact is, the 4/5 starting pitchers in the major leagues have good games and bad games.   I think the Twins should plug him into the rotation in 2027.   The worst case scenario is that he just isn't that good and there are better options to put into the rotation although I am not sure exactly what those options are at the moment (perhaps someone has some ideas).   The best case scenario is that he pitches well to the deadline either helping the Twins to a playoff level record, or failing that, he is a pitcher that we can more than recoup our investment in.  

That is a very reasonable set of outcomes for trading a young, lower level, international, and outside the top-25 prospect list like Reyes, who in 95 plate appearances for Baltimore's A minor league team he has a .611 OPS.   

And, while I usually am an advocate of not using half way measures in building a roster (either rebuild or compete), I just do not think the Twins system has enough rotational arms to fill out the 2027 starting rotation.

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

[NYCTK]

31 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

That was his salary THIS year. He wasn't exactly great, but we should still expect to see him get a raise in arbitration. Spotrac estimates $9M, but even if it's something more like $7.5M, that's starting to get expensive for someone like him, and you can probably replace his production, which isn't nothing, for that cost. Meaning he's a non-tender candidate along with Bailey Ober. 

Lopez - Trade candidate once healthy
Ryan - Trade candidate
Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Ober - NT candidate
Matthews
Kremer - NT candidate

Once you consider the potential transactions that you can argue SHOULD be made, you're not left with a very deep rotation

Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Matthews

...and Pablo as he regains health. I think extending Pablo might be the best course of action.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

Ober is likely done after this year.    

So the locks

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley 

4th/5th  - Abel and Kremer right now   

Priellip, Rojas, and Matthews are your 6-8 arms.  

I do think there is a high probability that Ryan gets traded this offseason.  Now Abel could easily be flipped with any of your 6-8 arms.  That is nothing locked in.  I just see Abel as having likely the highest ceiling. Priellip and Rojas are just below him in my opinion.  

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Ober is likely done after this year.    

So the locks

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley 

4th/5th  - Abel and Kremer right now   

Priellip, Rojas, and Matthews are your 6-8 arms.  

I do think there is a high probability that Ryan gets traded this offseason.  Now Abel could easily be flipped with any of your 6-8 arms.  That is nothing locked in.  I just see Abel as having likely the highest ceiling. Priellip and Rojas are just below him in my opinion.  

Matthews has been much better than Kremer and it isn't close. People want Prielipp in the minors next year? That's no ceiling decision. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Matthews has been much better than Kremer and it isn't close. People want Prielipp in the minors next year? That's no ceiling decision. 

Injuries will occur- trades will happen - Kremer has some value and if this year has shown anything you need 7-8 arms I don't care where they are slotted.   

Just to be devils advocate - what is the difference between Matthews and Kremer based on their Twins statistics this year?   Other than a higher war they are effectively the same type of pitcher.  yes he has upside, just as Priellip and Rojas and Abel all have.  The issue is not all 4 of those pitchers are going to pan out.   I would be willing to bet 1 of those 4 gets significantly injured next year.  That is just the odds of starting pitching.   

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Injuries will occur- trades will happen - Kremer has some value and if this year has shown anything you need 7-8 arms I don't care where they are slotted.   

If you start your best players in the minors because you fear bad veterans will get hurt ... How many awful stats do you give Kremer before you give up? This fear is why the Twins are filled with mediocre veterans every year 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you start your best players in the minors because you fear bad veterans will get hurt ... How many awful stats do you give Kremer before you give up? This fear is why the Twins are filled with mediocre veterans every year 

So Kremer is Awful now?   Mike you have to plan for the full season.  Ok so you DFA Ober and Kremer - what are you left with Mike?  6-7 arms,  good luck with that.  

No one should be expecting Lopez to come back to a full load.  We are still building up Matthews, Priellip, Abel and Rojas.   With the upside rotating through some of those arms seems like a good idea.   It will all work itself out.  

I have little doubt that Kremer is part of the offseason plans - will give fans like you something to gripe about all offseason.   

Mike - you are counting on Lopez coming back strong and able to do a full load. That all of Rojas, Matthews, Priellip and Abel are healthy and perform well.   That Ryan is still part of this team.   Bradley is likely locked in without a significant injury.  I see Kremer as a lock for this team and if he can be an innings eater for a #4 for another year to season our young arms that seems like the ideal scenario.  

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you start your best players in the minors because you fear bad veterans will get hurt ... How many awful stats do you give Kremer before you give up? This fear is why the Twins are filled with mediocre veterans every year 

The other half of that is they don’t have money for a really good pitcher because they spent it on Ober and Kremer.

You can “raise the floor” into the 70 win range. To break through to the 90 win range, you need All-Stars. There isn’t a “3rd place” pennant.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, DJL44 said:

The other half of that is they don’t have money for a really good pitcher because they spent it on Ober and Kremer.

You can “raise the floor” into the 70 win range. To break through to the 90 win range, you need All-Stars. There isn’t a “3rd place” pennant.

Well you can waste 1 more year of ryan with no return.  We also have 1 more year of Bradley.  

So what do we have moving forward in 2028- Bradley, Abel, Priellip, Matthews and Rojas and not much else behind it.  Quick and Gallagher are likely your next ones.  I think quick in mid to late 28 will be viable but he has some work to do yet.  

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins traded the equivalent of a PTBNL to get him and he's Arb eligible next year still.

Multiple outlets had Reyes as a top 20 prospect of ours, not somebody I'd call a PTBNL. It makes me wonder if the Twins do plan to pay that final year of arbitration, otherwise it seems like an overpay for a rental who isn't even a guy who would pitch much in the playoffs if we somehow made it.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Multiple outlets had Reyes as a top 20 prospect of ours, not somebody I'd call a PTBNL. It makes me wonder if the Twins do plan to pay that final year of arbitration, otherwise it seems like an overpay for a rental who isn't even a guy who would pitch much in the playoffs if we somehow made it.

Fangraphs had him in the top ten for Minnesota. 

They clearly expect him to be back next year. 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So Kremer is Awful now?   Mike you have to plan for the full season.  Ok so you DFA Ober and Kremer - what are you left with Mike?  6-7 arms,  good luck with that.  

No one should be expecting Lopez to come back to a full load.  We are still building up Matthews, Priellip, Abel and Rojas.   With the upside rotating through some of those arms seems like a good idea.   It will all work itself out.  

I have little doubt that Kremer is part of the offseason plans - will give fans like you something to gripe about all offseason.   

Mike - you are counting on Lopez coming back strong and able to do a full load. That all of Rojas, Matthews, Priellip and Abel are healthy and perform well.   That Ryan is still part of this team.   Bradley is likely locked in without a significant injury.  I see Kremer as a lock for this team and if he can be an innings eater for a #4 for another year to season our young arms that seems like the ideal scenario.  

As of right now IMO they should start with a 6 man rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Lopez, Prielipp, Abel and Ober or Kremer (keep one the other should go), Matthews an Rojas start in the majors and are the first two starters to fill in for injury. Let that go a couple of times and see how it shakes out. 

If they trade Ryan, which they should if he comes back and pitches well the last few starts (if not you don't trade him)you move Matthews or Rojas to starter and hopefully get a arm that is close to be depth. Zebby will be 27 next year, Prielipp 26 and Rojas 24 there is no reason for them to be in the minors. 

They have Gallagher, Paredes, Armstrong, Lewis, Culpepper as depth (not saying that is great) and if they feel the need sign a veteran type with some options to pitch in AAA. 

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Multiple outlets had Reyes as a top 20 prospect of ours, not somebody I'd call a PTBNL. It makes me wonder if the Twins do plan to pay that final year of arbitration, otherwise it seems like an overpay for a rental who isn't even a guy who would pitch much in the playoffs if we somehow made it.

 

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs had him in the top ten for Minnesota. 

They clearly expect him to be back next year. 

Flash in the pan hot May in rookie ball without so much as a write up about him triggers Fangraphs to go nuts. Reyes may become a player worth noting someday. Not today.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs had him in the top ten for Minnesota. 

They clearly expect him to be back next year. 

Kind of proves the point they are planning to keep him and view him as more than just a "mediocre" arm.    Now I do think Reyes was overrated as a top 12 prospect.  I think top 20 is a better comp.  He is adjust to A ball slowly in the Orioles organization.  Increasing his BA from .095 at Fort Myers in 7 games to .228  with a .611 OPS.  Yes he is young and yes he has some size but there is a lot of a projection needed to say he is a top 10-12 prospect in the Twins organization.  He is similar type prospect to Quinten Young.  Athleticism with upside but both incredibly young and raw.   I am just glad they kept Fragoza.  

[Woof Bronzer]

42 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So Kremer is Awful now?   Mike you have to plan for the full season.  Ok so you DFA Ober and Kremer - what are you left with Mike?  6-7 arms,  good luck with that.  

I think most people agree we need more than 5 starters, that's not the issue.  I think some folks are saying starters 5-8 are pretty interchangeable and if the Twins really want to take the next step - from a 75-ish win team to say an 85-ish win playoff team, they need better talent, and that the money Kremer would get might be better spent (in combination with other $ of course) on a high end starter, at least someone who would be in a potential playoff rotation.  There are certainly cheaper options, either internally or externally, than Kremer's $7m/year to fill those 5-8 starter roles.

If we as fans want the Twins to legitimately contend, we have to stop focusing on keeping average talent around simply because they've worn the Twins jersey for a while, and start focusing on how to raise the ceiling of this team by replacing average (and below-average) talent with above-average talent.  We need needle movers.  

It's not that Dean Kremer can't be a #5/6/7 guy,  It's that #5/6/7 guys don't win you playoff series, dozens are available every offseason, and the Twins resources are finite, so it's not worth paying a premium for Dean Kremer.  

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think most people agree we need more than 5 starters, that's not the issue.  I think some folks are saying starters 5-8 are pretty interchangeable and if the Twins really want to take the next step - from a 75-ish win team to say an 85-ish win playoff team, they need better talent, and that the money Kremer would get might be better spent (in combination with other $ of course) on a high end starter, at least someone who would be in a potential playoff rotation.  There are certainly cheaper options, either internally or externally, than Kremer's $7m/year to fill those 5-8 starter roles.

If we as fans want the Twins to legitimately contend, we have to stop focusing on keeping average talent around simply because they've worn the Twins jersey for a while, and start focusing on how to raise the ceiling of this team by replacing average (and below-average) talent with above-average talent.  We need needle movers.  

It's not that Dean Kremer can't be a #5/6/7 guy,  It's that #5/6/7 guys don't win you playoff series, dozens are available every offseason, and the Twins resources are finite, so it's not worth paying a premium for Dean Kremer.  

Starting multiple 4-7 starter types out of fear keeps you from even making the playoffs. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think most people agree we need more than 5 starters, that's not the issue.  I think some folks are saying starters 5-8 are pretty interchangeable and if the Twins really want to take the next step - from a 75-ish win team to say an 85-ish win playoff team, they need better talent, and that the money Kremer would get might be better spent (in combination with other $ of course) on a high end starter, at least someone who would be in a potential playoff rotation.  There are certainly cheaper options, either internally or externally, than Kremer's $7m/year to fill those 5-8 starter roles.

If we as fans want the Twins to legitimately contend, we have to stop focusing on keeping average talent around simply because they've worn the Twins jersey for a while, and start focusing on how to raise the ceiling of this team by replacing average (and below-average) talent with above-average talent.  We need needle movers.  

It's not that Dean Kremer can't be a #5/6/7 guy,  It's that #5/6/7 guys don't win you playoff series, dozens are available every offseason, and the Twins resources are finite, so it's not worth paying a premium for Dean Kremer.  

Fair enough but thats if Dean Kremer is a #5-#7 type guy.  In our starts so far I would argue he is a #4 and with some tweaks could be a #3.  Yes resources are finite, but we are also going into the season with what should be an extremely cheap roster.  You have rookies at shortstop and 1-2 outfield spots.   We are really only paying for Buxton, Caratini and Lewis.   I don't expect us to be spending a ton of money on the bullpen either.  So spending $7-$8 million for a solid pitcher seems reasonable,  especially when as a team you know you will be going through 7-8 pitchers a season.  Yes you may not expect him to start a playoff game.  Right now you have Lopez, Ryan and Bradley for that.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Starting multiple 4-7 starter types out of fear keeps you from even making the playoffs. 

Next year will be all about progression of the offense and continued build out of the bullpen.   Besides how many teams have all starters that are effectively #3 or better?  Dodgers and ???????

Going through 5 arms to find 2 suitable ones to be #3 or #4 types to build the back of your rotation is generally a smart plan.  You need the depth.  That isn't fear based,  its being realistic Mike.  We haven't gone through a full season with our starting 5 as long as I have been a fan and I am 44.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Starting multiple 4-7 starter types out of fear keeps you from even making the playoffs. 

In 1987  we started Mike Smithson -.4 WAR  5.94 ERA for 109 innings.  Joe Niekro  -1 WAR and and 6.26 ERA in 100+ innings 

In 1991,  you had Anderson, West and Guthrie all with 4.5+ ERA's as starters.    

You need those 4-5 type pitchers to give you a chance to win to get to the playoffs.     

[weitz41]

I like the Kremer trade. For this season it was a necessary addition at a minimal cost. Next season I'm not sure how it will shake out. Kremer seems like a likely off-season trade to me, along with Ober.

I'm going to guess Tom will be in the same "we're going to compete for a playoff spot" mode. After 2027 all of Pablo, Ryan, Ober and Kremer will all be free agents. To me that says the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation need to be filled with two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel and Rojas to have a reasonable transition from 2027 to 2028. Plus, there's more upside there.

If the 2027 season goes bad Pablo and Ryan traded at the deadline.

Maybe Tom goes big and extends Pablo or Ryan. That seems unlikely though.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Next year will be all about progression of the offense and continued build out of the bullpen.   Besides how many teams have all starters that are effectively #3 or better?  Dodgers and ???????

Going through 5 arms to find 2 suitable ones to be #3 or #4 types to build the back of your rotation is generally a smart plan.  You need the depth.  That isn't fear based,  its being realistic Mike.  We haven't gone through a full season with our starting 5 as long as I have been a fan and I am 44.  

I'd rather start with Matthews and Preilipp in the rotation than Ober and Kremer. They have legit upside. Unfortunately, you can't stash those two in the minors....

Also, we're going back40 years to justify moves? 

You won't change my mind. I'd rather have Quick and two random guys in positions 6-8, than start with Ober and Kremer at the beginning of hte year. I won't change your mind either....so that's fine.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd rather start with Matthews and Preilipp in the rotation than Ober and Kremer. They have legit upside. Unfortunately, you can't stash those two in the minors....

Also, we're going back40 years to justify moves? 

You won't change my mind. I'd rather have Quick and two random guys in positions 6-8, than start with Ober and Kremer at the beginning of hte year. I won't change your mind either....so that's fine.

Fair enough - right wrong or indifferent even you agree the Twins are likely to have 1 of Ober or Kremer in the starting line up start the season so I don't understand the consternation over it.   Your #5 likely isn't the reason you get to the playoffs or win the playoffs. They can stabilize a season by providing and eating up innings which Kremer does.  You are right I will let it go and neither of us is going to change the others mind.  40 years of statistics showing you need more than 5 pitchers to start games is statistically relevant in my book.