A Radically Different Deadline Approach Has Led to the Same August Results for the Minnesota Twins

[MeleMouth]

4 hours ago, Eris said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

For several years, the strategy has been to squeak into the playoffs by taking advantage of playing in the weakest division in baseball and then hope for the best.

This is actually relatively sane behavior, because most businesses try to pay the least possible to develop the products they need to make get results in their market. This is basically what the Twins do, because they have a monopoly in their market. The problem, of course, is that many market monopolists in MLB have more resources and many other monopolists with resources similar to the Twins compete in more difficult divisions so competition forces them to be smarter in managing their resources in order to maximize their revenue. Then, once the playoffs come around, the Twins monopoly loses to these wealthier or smarter monopolies.

[weitz41]

A historically terrible AL plays a large part in this comparison.  In fact, it makes it apples to oranges IMO.

Let's count our blessings, a CEO that says we're going to be completive or one who says we need to right size payroll? A GM that says your right Shelty, Lee isn't a SS, Royce you're not our 3b anymore, Wallner got strike out in AAA? Now low and behold we've promoted two guys in August.

Sure, they should have traded Jeffers and Larnach at a minimum at the deadline. But really how many more LH outfielders do we need? 😜

[HarmonK03]

This team badly needs new and competent leadership to lead the baseball operations.  That is where I am holding Tom P. accountable, hire someone with experience and get out of their way.  Let them present a plan and what resources are needed, if they are reasonable approve it.

Whatever plans Falvey has had are a mystery to the fans and that is a problem.  You need to be able sell what you are trying to accomplish and that can be done without giving details, a good leader knows how to do this.  And this is something Falvey was not and Zoll is even worse.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I still am all for the 2026 version of the trade deadline. 100%   Play each game like there is no tomorrow.  A caveat...I'm 81 and i live each day with gratitude and optimism. 

[Hubie29]

3 hours ago, GNess said:

 The moves made didn't cause the losing record in August.

 

 

 

 

It's the moves they didn't make. They lost Ryan, added Kremer. Added Hoffman to a bullpen revolving door. Where did they add anything on the offensive side or defense?

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Then, once the playoffs come around, the Twins monopoly loses to these wealthier or smarter monopolies.

The Pohlads have plenty of money. It's the intelligence deficit that's the real issue with this club.

[LastOnePicked]

11 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I'm 81 and i live each day with gratitude and optimism. 

That's great, and I love it. Here's hoping you reach 101.

But the problem with the "play each game like it's your last" approach for a major league team is that you can actually damage tomorrow's chances with today's mistakes. That's precisely what happened this past offseason.

[LastOnePicked]

Good article, Nick. The reason why the records are pretty much the same is that this is still pretty much the same organization. There wasn't a single elite player of the roster last August, and there's not a single elite player on the roster this August. You need elite talent somewhere on the mound or the field or the batter's box to win. 

It's possible that Jenkins will be elite. We'll just have to see.

[shimrod]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

That is where I am holding Tom P. accountable, hire someone with experience and get out of their way.  Let them present a plan and what resources are needed, if they are reasonable approve it.

I expect an experienced baseball executive plans how to win. Tell him the goal is to maximize profit and he finds another team to work for. 

EDIT: To be clear, it's my belief that the swap of owner overseers and subsequent talk about competing, along with the (minimal) increase in payroll has everything to do with the drop in revenue and ticket sales. Ownership would be perfectly happy living in the basement of the abysmal AL central as long as the money kept rolling in. Much to their dismay fans are reluctant to turn out and watch a team that isn't trying. 

[jkcarew]

What the Twins added this year makes it RADICALLY different from last year? I would say not really. And when you sell the guys they sold last year (relievers) you don’t get THAT much top end MLB ready talent. That would have come with trading a Buxton or Ryan at any point in the past 12 months (theoretically in Buxton’s case). Still, a healthy Abel might have moved the needle.

[JADBP]

3 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

For several years, the strategy has been to squeak into the playoffs by taking advantage of playing in the weakest division in baseball and then hope for the best.

This is actually relatively sane behavior, because most businesses try to pay the least possible to develop the products they need to make get results in their market. This is basically what the Twins do, because they have a monopoly in their market. The problem, of course, is that many market monopolists in MLB have more resources and many other monopolists with resources similar to the Twins compete in more difficult divisions so competition forces them to be smarter in managing their resources in order to maximize their revenue. Then, once the playoffs come around, the Twins monopoly loses to these wealthier or smarter monopolies.

I disagree with your assumption that many companies try to spend the least amount to develop their products.  There are companies that try to develop the best products and become market leaders recognized for innovative, high quality, high reliability products...some obvious names come to mind...maybe Apple, Rolex, Ferrari, the Los Angeles Dodgers and many, many more.  There are also companies that live at the are perennial bottom feeders, like dollar stores, budget airlines and the Los Angeles Angels.  But here is the thing:  Dollar stores are very, very profitable.  

MLB is an odd duck.  Is it a business?  Is it the National Pastime?  Is it supposed to be profitable or winning?  Is it even a regional monopoly (anymore)?  It is entertainment business and the owners rightfully try to make a profit--if for no other reason than profit sustains the organization for years (except probably Cohen, LOL). If you lose money year after year, then you end up like the Twins, with $500 million in debt and you are forced to sell the team.  

Because owners are usually not baseball men, it is their job to hire managers to run the team.  And the Twins have been very bad at hiring management for a very long time.  Falvey's decision-making was all over the place, culminating in disaster last year.  Joe Pohlad was an embarrassment. Zoll doesn't give us much confidence.

Twins Profitability has been very bad to non-existent for years (racking up $500 million in debt).   And, as a result, they cut salaries, killing fan interest and attendance.  Price slashing or "right-sizing led to the demise of RadioShack, Toys R Us, and Sears and could still destroy Boeing.  Its very tough road and few succeed and it will never work in modern professional sports.

Smart, well-run, small market teams are out there (Milwaukee, KC are good MLB examples).  But the Twins just seem to keep flailing.  Can Tom fix what Joe broke?  That's the question.  But, to do so, he has to first fix the fundamental problem with the Twins:  BAD MANAGEMENT--up and down the organization.  Just moving Falvey was not enough.  Zoll is simply the new name atop the same organization.  As Townshend said:  "New boss....same as the old boss."

Counting on increased revenue sharing with a new players agreement is just delaying more failure.  It is NOT going to make a poorly managed team run better.  I expect it will take years to untangle this mess at 1 Twins Way.

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Twins are funner to watch this year but still not a very good team.  Lots of holes to filled.  Still hard to understand their philosophy.  Pohlad gloating about adding 8 million to payroll lands flat when you consider it was reduced by nearly 60 million the past year and a half.  The players added at the deadline are marginal at best and certainly not better than the players we traded away last year.

Funner and competitiver.

 

Helluva difference from last year.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Funner and competitiver.

 

Helluva difference from last year.

Your periodic reminder that last year after an equivalent number of games the Twins were 61-73. 

64-70 this year is a helluva anything?

[HarmonK03]

17 minutes ago, shimrod said:

I expect an experienced baseball executive plans how to win. Tell him the goal is to maximize profit and he finds another team to work for. 

 

Other than a couple of teams every team is trying to maximize profit, they don't have an open checkbook.  If a new executive comes in and thinks he is going to have a $200m budget under the current rules, he is a fool and shouldn't take the job.  Other teams that are not at the top of the money chain have gotten top executives, Cle, Mil and TB for a few examples.

This is why I said very clearly what I want from Tom P.  But it is not all about money, it is about player development, roster decisions, i.e. not carrying the Grays and Jacksons of the world except in emergency, making smart personnel decisions.  But most of all have a plan.

[MeleMouth]

30 minutes ago, JADBP said:

I disagree with your assumption that many companies try to spend the least amount to develop their products.  There are companies that try to develop the best products and become market leaders recognized for innovative, high quality, high reliability products...some obvious names come to mind...maybe Apple, Rolex, Ferrari, the Los Angeles Dodgers and many, many more.  There are also companies that live at the are perennial bottom feeders, like dollar stores, budget airlines and the Los Angeles Angels.  But here is the thing:  Dollar stores are very, very profitable.  

 

Itemizing companies that spend lavishly to improve the customer experience - besides the ones you listed, I can think of several others - does not negate the central point: MOST (I did not say "MANY," as you rewrote the statement, although that is true, also) companies seek to spend the least amount necessary to maximize profits. Interestingly, you conclude your paragraph with examples of companies whose business model and even branding is exactly that: spend the least possible.

A corollary is that most companies pay their employees the least necessary to get their best work.

If you want to say that most companies spend more than the least necessary to maximize their profits, or that most companies pay their employees more than they need to, you are being oppositional for the sake of being oppositional in defiance of basic economics. 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, GNess said:

With the benefit of hindsight everybody can be good decision-makers. When the Twins made a few modest moves they were definitely in the race. But the team faltered in August nonetheless. 

In fact Kremer has pitched well. Minter and Hoffman have been less effective but not terrible.. The moves made didn't cause the losing record in August.

Kremer and Hoffman are under contract for 2027. 

Maybe they should have traded Ryan given his history of 2nd half failures which of course other MLB teams must be aware. Jeffers - maybe a decent return. Larnach - please.

If Larnach, Roden Martin, Gray ,were so called blocking / delaying the call ups of Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins - that seems to be more suspect than the failure of trades made at the deadline.

 

 

 

A) It is not hindsight.  There were plenty of posters who said investing in this team was foolish and that it would cost the team long-term.  As the @Leviathan pointed out, there was a significant opportunity cost, especially given that this team was only in contention for a playoff spot because of the overall weakness of the AL. 

B) Players were not called up because Tom Pohald is/was under the delusion this team is a contender.  You can't count on even really good prospects to hit out of the gate.  That's a reasonable fear when you are contending.  The management of this organization was never going to replace LArnach as long as they thought there was any shot at the post season.  They could have / should have made personnel decisions based on building a contender rather than pretending they were a contender.

[ashbury]

"But be not afraid of contention: some are born contenders, some achieve contention, and some have contention thrust upon them." -- Willie "Say Thee Hey" Shakespeare, The Twelfth Inning

[HarmonK03]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

A) It is not hindsight.  There were plenty of posters who said investing in this team was foolish and that it would cost the team long-term.  As the @Leviathan pointed out, there was a significant opportunity cost, especially given that this team was only in contention for a playoff spot because of the overall weakness of the AL. 

B) Players were not called up because Tom Pohald is/was under the delusion this team is a contender.  You can't count on even really good prospects to hit out of the gate.  That's a reasonable fear when you are contending.  The management of this organization was never going to replace LArnach as long as they thought there was any shot at the post season.  They could have / should have made personnel decisions based on building a contender rather than pretending they were a contender.

Pohlad made a business decision that he thought by pretending to be contenders it would bring in fans.  Zoll then acted accordingly.  It was not a good decision but Zoll is a marshmallow,  Get a real leader that can present a better plan to Tom P.

They had a trade in place for Larnach, and if I recall it was the Astros owner not the Twins owner vetoing the trade.  So I am not sure that you say they were never going to replace Larnach.  Not sure why they didn't make a deal with another team.

[LastOnePicked]

57 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Your periodic reminder that last year after an equivalent number of games the Twins were 61-73. 

64-70 this year is a helluva anything?

No wonder the Pohlads don't really invest in the team. 64-70 equals "a fun year" to too many people.

If they were a 64-70 team of all youngsters in a rebuild, sure. This is a mostly veteran team whose stated goal was to win.

I don't get it. I just don't get it.