The Twins’ problem isn’t how much they spend. It’s how well they spend it.

[tlkriens]

https://kornradio.com/sports/the-twins-problem-isnt-how-much-they-spend-its-how-well-they-spend-it/

Travis Kriens – KORN News Radio Sports Director

Spending. Spending. Spending.

Money. Money. Money.

It seems to be the central argument surrounding the Minnesota Twins future these days. What is the payroll? Is it going up? Is it going down? Are the Pohlad family and the Twins serious about winning?

In a recent column, Aaron Gleeman argues that they need to spend significantly more this offseason to regain the trust of a frustrated fan base. I understand the sentiment. I just don’t agree with the premise.

The Twins absolutely should spend money when the right opportunity presents itself. But payroll is not a measure of how serious a team is about winning. It is simply a resource. The more important question is what a team does with that resource. And the Twins have provided plenty of evidence that spending more money does not necessarily produce better results.

Consider some of the largest contracts in franchise history.

Carlos Correa’s six-year, $200 million contract remains the largest deal in Twins history. When Minnesota signed him, the decision was easy to understand. Correa was an elite player entering his prime, and the Twins needed a star.

In 2022, he looked every bit worth the investment. He hit .291 with a .366 on-base percentage, a .467 slugging percentage, 22 home runs and a 138 OPS+. Baseball-Reference credited him with 5.3 WAR.

Then things changed.

Correa’s 2023 season was the worst of his career. He hit .230 with a 93 OPS+ and produced just 1.3 WAR. He rebounded in 2024, making the All-Star team and hitting .310. But he appeared in only 86 games because of injuries. The following season brought another decline, and the Twins ultimately traded him back to Houston.

There were reasonable explanations for much of it. Injuries played a major role. Baseball is unpredictable. That is precisely the point. Even a well-intentioned, analytically defensible $200 million investment can turn into something very different from what everyone expected.

Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million extension is another example, although it deserves considerably more nuance. The Twins probably had little choice but to sign Mauer. He was a franchise player, an MVP, a three-time batting champion and one of the most accomplished players in team history.

Nobody could reasonably have anticipated the concussion problems that altered the trajectory of his career. Mauer still produced a Hall of Fame career. But the Twins did not receive eight years of the superstar-level production that the contract was designed to purchase.

Josh Donaldson provides another example.

Minnesota gave the 34-year-old third baseman a four-year, $84 million contract before the 2020 season. Donaldson had been an All-Star and American League MVP. He had also just hit 37 home runs for Atlanta. The Twins got 163 games from him over two seasons. Donaldson was better in 2021, posting a 127 OPS+ and hitting 26 home runs. But by then, he was 35 years old, and the Twins ultimately traded him to the Yankees.

None of this means the Twins were foolish for making those investments. It means something much simpler. Money does not eliminate risk.

So when Gleeman argues that the Twins need to raise payroll substantially this offseason, I think the obvious follow-up question is: For whom? Where is the money supposed to go?

The Twins’ biggest issue may not be a lack of players. It may be determining what to do with all the players they already have. Look at the starting rotation.

Joe Ryan. Pablo López. Taj Bradley. Connor Prielipp. Dean Kremer. Bailey Ober. Zebby Matthews. Mick Abel. David Festa. Kendry Rojas.

Assuming reasonable health, there are a lot of options there. Does Minnesota need to spend significant money on another starting pitcher? I’m not convinced.

The bullpen is even harder to justify as an area requiring major investment.

Since July 1, the Twins’ bullpen has posted a 3.15 ERA, tied with the White Sox for fifth best in baseball. Andrew Morris, A.J. Minter, Yoendrys Gómez, Jeff Hoffman and Tommy Nance have all been effective. Minter has an $11 million player option, so there are decisions to make. But the Twins have already transformed a major weakness into one of the better parts of the roster. That doesn’t mean the bullpen is perfect. It means there are other problems to solve first.

Then there is the position-player group.

Byron Buxton. Trevor Larnach. Kody Clemens. Royce Lewis. Brooks Lee. Luke Keaschall. Alan Roden. Kaelen Culpepper. Walker Jenkins. Victor Caratini. Alex Jackson. Ryan Kreidler. Austin Martin. Emmanuel Rodriguez. Hendry Mendez. Matt Wallner.

That’s 16 names competing for roughly 10 spots. Obviously, some won’t make the roster. Some will play in the minors. Some could be traded. Some won’t be with the organization next season. But that is precisely the point. The Twins have decisions to make before they have a blank check to spend.

Maybe they need another impact bat. Maybe they need a veteran position player who can stabilize a young lineup. Maybe they need to trade from their surplus to address a weakness elsewhere. Those are legitimate arguments. “Spend more money” is not.

The Twins’ recent history actually makes the case for being more selective with payroll, not less. The 2023 Twins won the American League Central and finally ended the franchise’s two-decade playoff losing streak with a payroll of roughly $160 million. That is evidence that Minnesota can win with a significant payroll. It is not evidence that $160 million is the magic number.

This year’s team is better than last year’s team despite spending roughly $25 million to $30 million less. That doesn’t prove spending less is inherently better. It does prove that payroll and success are not perfectly correlated. And that distinction matters.

The Twins should not be embarrassed by having a lower payroll if they have a better baseball team. They should be embarrassed if they have a lower payroll and fail to identify the opportunities that would make the team better. That’s the standard I would use. Spend when the player is worth the investment. Spend when the opportunity fits the roster. Spend when the organization believes the player improves its chances of winning. But don’t spend simply to demonstrate to fans that you are spending. That is how you end up paying for yesterday’s production with tomorrow’s money.

There is also a larger point about rebuilding trust with the fan base. Fans don’t ultimately care about payroll. They care about winning. Nobody walks out of Target Field thinking, “At least ownership had the 10th-highest payroll.” They remember division titles, playoff wins, great players and meaningful baseball late in the season.

If the Twins win, develop their young players and build a sustainable contender, the fans will notice. If they spend another $30 million and finish out of the playoffs, I’m not sure the fans will feel particularly comforted by the fact that ownership tried.

The recent trade deadline was encouraging precisely because the Twins did something more important than simply increase payroll: They addressed a weakness. Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer give the roster more depth and experience. Taking on roughly $8.5 million in remaining salary was a meaningful commitment. It was a good move. But the lesson shouldn’t be that the Twins finally discovered they need to spend money. The lesson should be that targeted spending can make a difference when it is attached to a coherent baseball decision.

That’s the distinction I think gets lost in this discussion. Payroll is not the product. The roster is. And the standings are. If the Twins have an opportunity this offseason to add a player who makes them significantly better, they should absolutely pursue it. If that opportunity requires $20 million, $30 million or $40 million, so be it. But if the best move is a trade, promoting a prospect, retaining an existing player or simply refusing to overpay for an aging free agent, then that should be the move.

The Twins don’t need to win a payroll competition. They need to win baseball games. That’s ultimately how they regain the trust of their fans. Not by spending more. By proving they know when to spend, whom to spend it on and why. And with 40 games left in this season, there is still baseball to play.

I’m far more interested in seeing what this team does between now and October than I am in looking at a payroll spreadsheet. I’ll take meaningful baseball in August and September over an impressive offseason spending total every time.

[Possumlad]

My greatest wish for the Twins is that we stop spending real money on short-term stop-gap guys with league-average production.

If you're going to have a $150-$175MM payroll (which I expect in 2027 if we have a season), it should be barbelled between 4-5 stars & controllable low-money guys on good deals.  Josh Bell & Victor Caratini have been fine this year (probably about average at their position), but it's tough for a team like the Twins to be paying $18MM total this year to guys like that.