Out of Patience: Emmanuel Rodriguez's Lack of Remaining Options Is a Problem

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To the Royals for Massey could work.

Like I said, they'd only get a player back the other team isn't interested in anyway. I would DFA Massey the second he hit the roster. The only offensive players the Twins have any business adding to the roster in 2027 should only be a legit middle of the order bat. If they can't get one, then only add top end starting pitching. If they can't get either, don't do a damn thing and continue clogging up the roster.

[Cris E]

ERod is ready in a macro sense (good numbers over time at the AAA level) but not in a micro sense (knock the rust off after three months) so he's got to get it going in St Paul before anything else. 

He also needs some 2026 MLB time, but it'll have to be as a Sept callup simply because there are bigger fish to fry in the next three weeks (Buxton, Jenkins) and the downside to not seeing him this year is forcing him onto the 2027 opening day roster (or trading him blindly before then.)

He was mishandled, so bad on the Twins, but he also owns some of this (diving into first?!?) and needs to learn how to take care of himself the way other injury-prone players have in the past (eg Byron B.) That can happen at any level, but the only way to prove it is playing a ton. He'll get more reps in St Paul.  

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If he's really bad, you DFA him and he passes through waivers or you move on if somebody claims him. He wasn't good enough to make the roster for 8 years in the system at that point. I'm not too concerned.

I would just add that, that is what all of us on this board pretty much said about Rooker who needed more time and eventually ended up an All Star. He  was much older than E-Rod, but giving up early can have consequences.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

yes lets add another 29 year unproven player over a 23 year old prospect. 

What is “unproven” about Massey. He has an OPS+ of 100 and is a terrific fielder. I can understand if the Twins are allergic to good defense at second base. They have been avoiding it since Todd Walker.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Max Clark says hello. 

 

Max Clark is on a roster without a lot of better options.  There have been so many injuries and disappointments that they had to go out and get Outman's proven 2026 record of offensive futility in mid-season because they had so few better choices. Right now they have three 40 man OF on the 60 day IL, another on the 10 day IL, and when Javier Baez finally came back from missing three months at the end of July they had to keep him in the infield because they are short there too. Detroit does not have a problem with too many choices.   

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What is “unproven” about Massey. He has an OPS+ of 100 and is a terrific fielder. I can understand if the Twins are allergic to good defense at second base. They have been avoiding it since Todd Walker.

Maybe unproven was a bit harsh, He will be 29 next year, and has a career .676 OPS, better this year and his OPS+ is still 100. The Twins don't need another average major league player, the roster is filled with them. If the Twins are going to bring in somebody from outside the Organization to play a defensive position it better be someone that is much better than average. 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

6 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Max Clark is on a roster without a lot of better options.  There have been so many injuries and disappointments that they had to go out and get Outman's proven 2026 record of offensive futility in mid-season because they had so few better choices. Right now they have three 40 man OF on the 60 day IL, another on the 10 day IL, and when Javier Baez finally came back from missing three months at the end of July they had to keep him in the infield because they are short there too. Detroit does not have a problem with too many choices.   

Actually he is saying hello, because his OPS hasn't dropped .200 points not because he is 21 or because the Tigers don't have better options. 

The idea that a player 23 or younger has to out perform guys in their late 20's in AAA is crazy talk. If those guys in their late 20's weren't doing that they were would selling insurance or playing overseas not playing in the minors. A 21 got to AAA because they have the skills to be a superstar someday. 

By that logic the Stevensons, Keirsay and Wallner's of the world would be getting all the chances and the young guys would just wouldn't and the league wouldn't have the JROD, Merrill, Tatis, Chourio, Acuna's and others.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Maybe unproven was a bit harsh, He will be 29 next year, and has a career .676 OPS, better this year and his OPS+ is still 100. The Twins don't need another average major league player, the roster is filled with them. If the Twins are going to bring in somebody from outside the Organization to play a defensive position it better be someone that is much better than average. 

The roster was so full of average infielders that we got 141 combined starts from Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray.

[Cris E]

@MapleGroveTwinsFanThen why wasn't he up until after they traded away 40% of their starting rotation? 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don’t remember the Twins giving Tristan Gray playing time in the outfield.

Ya got me!   They were too busy playing Matt Wallner, Austin Martin, James Outman, and Luke "Concrete Glove" Keaschall in the outfield to find time for Gray (or Jenkins) I guess.   

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, the Twins should definitely play minor leaguers who are injured in the major leagues instead of putting them on the minor league injured list.

Rodriguez has not been promoted because he can’t stay on the field. He has missed nearly 400 games due to injury over the past four seasons. 

Lol.  Yes, that was my exact point, play hurt guys more.  Glad to see the bad faith is strong with you.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

14 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Performance?

Emma - .899 OPS
Ross - .856
Mendez - .820
GG - .725

And Emma is by far the fastest and a better outfielder than GG or Mendez.  Honestly those last two shouldn't even be in the discussion for 2026.  They are barely handling AAA.

Jenkins is a special case.  Bring him when deemed ready, be that today or in 2027.

Ahh, dig deeper my friend. Emma has all of 144 plate appearances this year. He was out for 100 days and just came back literally yesterday. Do you really think he could help an MLB team now? I gotta think he needs at least 2-3 weeks at AAA to regain his timing before he would have a shot at success in the Bigs. 

But let's assume though that he's not rusty and could hit the ground running. Let's actually look at where that OPS comes from. It's not from a high SLG rate (his is good but not outstanding) or a high BA (his is pretty mediocre at best) it to comes from a high OBP based on a very high BB rate, between 20-21% in 2026 and 2025, 24% plus in 2024. A BB rate that high is unheard of at the MLB level. His could easily drop in half or more and there goes his OPS. Moreover, his SO rate is astronomical. This year Emma has 43 SOs in 144 plate appearances - a 37.% strikeout rate! His SO rate in 2025 was 32.3%, 30% in 2024. All bad numbers with a bad trend. The general rule of thumb based on historical data is that a player's SO rate goes up 5% in his first MLB year, walk rate down 2%-5%, BA down 12-15%, SLG down 15-20%. So if the trends apply, we should expect Emma to run a 35% to 40% plus SO rate when he first comes up (unplayable, see Wallner), with a 12-15% BB rate at best (good), and hit somewhere around .215-.230 with a .375-.400 or so SLG. Generally speaking, that would equate to a .625 – .675 OPS. That's a guy whose primary value is to walk with occasional power. Not pretty. Hard or see who he would replace other than Roden and Buxton or Jenkins replaces Roden. And that's after he ramps back up, likely much worse now after a 100 day layoff.  

Despite what I just laid out I'm not a huge believer in the predictive power of analytical data. But here, it's just hard to see Emma helping his team this year based on his past performance. He really needs to come up in a lower pressure environment and get 500 plate appearances before he can add a lot of  value. I just don't see a reason to bring him up now in a stretch run while we are trying to qualify for the playoffs. His history does not suggest we will catch lightning in a bottle. Much better to bring him up in September if we've completely fallen out of the race to see where he is, or bring him north next spring and slowly feed him into the lineup.

I'm with you on Jenkins. I don't really care what the numbers say. He has the chance to be special. He is the one guy where we actually might catch lightning in a bottle and help ourselves this year. The rest of those guys wait until next year unless there's an injury and we need an emergency callup. I'll grant you that Emma may come up before GG, but I just don't see him coming up before Jenkins, Ross, or Mendez if that emergency occurs given he's been out most of the season.

    

[Craig Arko]

I can see Emma as a Sept. 1 call up.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

ERod and Jenkins haven't knocked down the door to play for the Twins and both missed long stretches with injuries (Rodriguez the much longer stretch). I don't see either getting recalled this season unless there is an injury and if that occurs after the Twins are eliminated, it would Rodriguez in order to keep Jenkins off the 40-man roster, especially with the likelyhood of a lockout next spring.

If Buxton returns as anticipated, there really isn't any place for those guys to play this year, as much as people are calling for it. Neither is a backup catcher or infielder where the soft spots in the lineup are currently playing. 

"Not enough room," is a tough sell if you're carrying both Roden and Martin in the OF. 

[Major League Ready]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To the Royals for Massey could work.

Massey has very good range but a weak arm.  I don't think we would be gaining anything over Clemens or Keashall at 2B and Keashall has the potentially to be quite a bit better offensively.  This is just a short-term view.  By mid-season next year, they hopefully have Culpepper at 2B and Houston at SS.  The OF is Buxton, Jenkins, and Rodriguez.  Now that's a team that can play defense and run the bases.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Ya got me!   They were too busy playing Matt Wallner, Austin Martin, James Outman, and Luke "Concrete Glove" Keaschall in the outfield to find time for Gray (or Jenkins) I guess.   

It is worth remembering that Jenkins was out over six weeks in May and June with a shoulder injury. That comes after missing time in March with a hamstring injury. This is his first stretch of consistent playing time all season. I can’t fault the Twins for playing other guys while Jenkins was injured or recovering from injuries.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"Not enough room," is a tough sell if you're carrying both Roden and Martin in the OF. 

Martin has 1 WAR off the bench this season.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Massey has very good range but a weak arm.  I don't think we would be gaining anything over Clemens or Keashall at 2B 

Keaschall has very bad range and a weak arm. The difference is like 20-30 defensive runs saved. Massey is 93rd percentile in range and Keaschall is the 1st percentile.

[Cris E]

15 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"Not enough room," is a tough sell if you're carrying both Roden and Martin in the OF. 

Calling up kids to sit on the bench is not fruitful.

Roden and Martin don't play a lot, and Buxton is going to cut into that when he returns.  Rodan has been given the rope to prove he's not the guy, and Martin is a platoon guy and late inning defensive replacement (16 times since July 1.)  So as we start making moves you'll see Rodan gone and Martin continue to start against lefties. The delay for Jenkins is to keep him eligible for rookie status next year, and Buxton is on whatever schedule it takes to get him on the field. Essentially you're complaining about the Jenkins choice and the team is not agreeing with you. 

EDIT: It's worth pointing out that the team is doing what everyone is carping about: play some folks and make some choices. They played Wallner and sent him down, then Fedko and decided he's not the guy, now Rodan and will soon decide he's not the guy.  Move around Lewis and Lee and Keaschall and decide they are still Guys. 

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

You can rotate four outfielders and Jenkins can still get plenty at bats.  Especially with Larnach cooling off.  Roden should not be on the roster or should Jackson.  I think Jenkins has been making his case the past month and to not call him this year is being too conservative.  ERod should probably be the extra position player in September.  This allows Kreidler and Clemens to stay on the dirt where they are more effective.

If you really want Jackson around this year in case another catcher.gets hurt, you should play him to prevent the other catchers from getting hurt.

See how silly..?

[LA Vikes Fan]

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"Not enough room," is a tough sell if you're carrying both Roden and Martin in the OF. 

It's really a Martin issue. Roden is gone when Buxton is ready to play, probably this weekend, and he should be. He's had over 50 ABs this year, 188 over the last two and he hasn't hit.

Martin is a tougher call. He's hitting .258/.409/.400 (.809) this year against lefties, .346/.404/.481 (.889) against lefties last year. He can at least do that pretty well. That's where the regular playing time is because we aren't sitting Buxton or Keaschall more than once a week since Keaschall has been our best hitter since July 1 by far. Larnach has been great against RH pitching although he is slumping now pretty badly. Can Jenkins be better? Sure, maybe, but his .279/.355/.397 (.792) mark in AAA against lefties doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for a platoon role when you figure that on average in the first year jump to the Bigs, players lose 12-15% off their AAA BA, and 15-20% off their SLG, while their SO rate climbs 5% and their BB rate drops 5%. Hard to see a path to more than 2-3 starts a week with the current roster even if he comes up to replace Martin. 

Love me some Jenkins and I think he could be a very special player. Having said that, I think it will take an injury to get him up here with real playing time unless Buxton can't go. Maybe it's worth sending Martin back to AAA or more likely waiving Jackson to give Jenkins that 2-3 games a week to see if we catch lightning in a bottle. Hard to see it though.  

[KirbyDome89]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Martin has 1 WAR off the bench this season.

He's been terrible since he was given a starters workload in May.

.193/.298/.284

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I would just add that, that is what all of us on this board pretty much said about Rooker who needed more time and eventually ended up an All Star. He  was much older than E-Rod, but giving up early can have consequences.

Rooker was holding his own with good expected metrics when the Twins gave up on him. He wasn't "bad" so I'm not exactly sure how to look at that.

Rooker was given a very, very short leash in April, 2021. His demotion came after 8 games, and he was recalled on 7/23/21. After the recall, Rooker was .219/.317/.425 wRC+ 106, wOBA .324, xwOBA .361 over 183 PA. That's the last Rooker ever saw action in Minnesota. Falvey bailed on Rooker in favor of Kyle Garlick. It was asinine IMHO. If the Twins front office continues to toss players who are raking by expected metrics, the Twins are going nowhere regardless.

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

10 minutes ago, Patzky said:

If you really want Jackson around this year in case another catcher.gets hurt, you should play him to prevent the other catchers from getting hurt.

See how silly..?

I agree but I do see the logic. It's not about this year, it's about next year. Jackson has been pretty good this year in a limited sample size. Good defense and he's hit. Jackson is the 2027 backup or platoon catcher in the likely event that Jeffers isn't back. He has another year of arbitration left and will be a less than $2 million guy so if we put him on waivers and he's claimed (very likely), the claiming team has him next year. He won't be available for us to re-sign. That puts us back in the very grim FA market for backup/platoon catchers since we have nobody in the minors that is ready to make the jump. I get why they want to have him around for 2027. The price of doing that is to keep him on the roster in 2026.

Still, part of me really wants them to call up Jenkins to see if can catch lightning in a bottle for the stretch run. Really, the only way to do that is to either send Martin back to AAA or waive Jackson. Martin has one option left and I suspect they want to keep that for next year, plus he has an OPS of over .800 against lefties this year with a .400 OBP and had a .893 OPS against lefties last year with over .400 OBP. That has value and he serviceable in the OF. That just leaves waiving Jackson. My guess is that Jenkins stays at AAA until there's an injury, especially since he's not exactly tearing it up there. I also guess there will be an injury and he will get a shot at some point this year.

 

[PatPfund]

This is a problem of the Twins own making. Always was Emma's final option year, and he should have broken camp with the Twins in place of the terrible James Outman. Instead they send him down, he gets hurt (stupidly), and he's coming back late in the year. I like Roden's future, but it seems a pretty easy move to send down a .192 hitter, and call up someone you MUST know more about and NOW; a player who needs some MLB time before you need to make big decisions about him. (Even if Rodriguez is a trade option, you'd want to pump up the tires a little before selling him.) FYI, Jenkins has been fine but. not great, and is not running low on options, so calling him up should be a case of team need (and a need that runs lower than getting Emma some big league time).

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The roster was so full of average infielders that we got 141 combined starts from Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray.

Massey has played zero games at SS as a professional.  Kreidler/Gray's usage on the Twins this season has nothing to do with him.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

His OPS is 150 points lower than Wallner and Sabato.  He ranks 12th in OPS among Saints players.  His numbers are decent and he has been a little better lately, but I would not characterize his production as demanding a spot on the MLB roster.   

Jenkins has a considerably better K% and BB% than Sabato, he's just not hitting for power quite yet. I don't think he's "demanding" a spot at this point, but I think he's getting close.

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Emma - .899 OPS

With an almost 30% K rate...

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

You're going to have to find an absolute dog of a team that is willing to commit a roster spot to him in 2027 whether he's playing well or not. So maybe the Angels, A's and Rockies? Maybe the Giants if they go into rebuild mode? 

Right, that will decrease his trade value, but still, I think one of those teams would bite at the opportunity to buy low on a top 100 prospect. And he'd be part of a trade package.

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

It's really a Martin issue. Roden is gone when Buxton is ready to play, probably this weekend, and he should be. He's had over 50 ABs this year, 188 over the last two and he hasn't hit.

Martin is a tougher call. He's hitting .258/.409/.400 (.809) this year against lefties, .346/.404/.481 (.889) against lefties last year. He can at least do that pretty well. That's where the regular playing time is because we aren't sitting Buxton or Keaschall more than once a week since Keaschall has been our best hitter since July 1 by far. Larnach has been great against RH pitching although he is slumping now pretty badly. Can Jenkins be better? Sure, maybe, but his .279/.355/.397 (.792) mark in AAA against lefties doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for a platoon role when you figure that on average in the first year jump to the Bigs, players lose 12-15% off their AAA BA, and 15-20% off their SLG, while their SO rate climbs 5% and their BB rate drops 5%. Hard to see a path to more than 2-3 starts a week with the current roster even if he comes up to replace Martin. 

Love me some Jenkins and I think he could be a very special player. Having said that, I think it will take an injury to get him up here with real playing time unless Buxton can't go. Maybe it's worth sending Martin back to AAA or more likely waiving Jackson to give Jenkins that 2-3 games a week to see if we catch lightning in a bottle. Hard to see it though.  

I'm fine with Roden going away at this point, but is Buxton starting in CF 5-6 times per week? I doubt it. If you don't have Jenkins or Rodriguez on the roster, that means you're starting Martin or Kreidler and one or both have to face RHP. 

I would've waived Jackson yesterday. This team just can't seem to get out of their own way with roster mismanagement. Alex Jackson is now such a prized commodity that the Twins need to burn a roster spot to stash him? Insanity...but end rant. 

Jenkins is already a better defender than Martin, and you don't have to wait until a LHP takes the mound to *maybe* spot start him. Also, this team isn't exactly tearing it up offensively right now. The notion that there isn't room, or PAs, for somebody like Walker Jenkins doesn't vibe with me. 

[KirbyDome89]

48 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Calling up kids to sit on the bench is not fruitful.

Roden and Martin don't play a lot, and Buxton is going to cut into that when he returns.  Rodan has been given the rope to prove he's not the guy, and Martin is a platoon guy and late inning defensive replacement (16 times since July 1.)  So as we start making moves you'll see Rodan gone and Martin continue to start against lefties. The delay for Jenkins is to keep him eligible for rookie status next year, and Buxton is on whatever schedule it takes to get him on the field. Essentially you're complaining about the Jenkins choice and the team is not agreeing with you. 

EDIT: It's worth pointing out that the team is doing what everyone is carping about: play some folks and make some choices. They played Wallner and sent him down, then Fedko and decided he's not the guy, now Rodan and will soon decide he's not the guy.  Move around Lewis and Lee and Keaschall and decide they are still Guys. 

Rodriguez has to be rostered next year. Unless you're dead set on moving him this offseason, I'd argue that trying to roster a guy with zero MLB experience is less fruitful than giving him PAs at the expense of Martin or Roden. 

I said it above, but how often is Buxton is starting in CF? How much "sitting," would Jenkins or Emma actually do? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm fine with Roden going away at this point, but is Buxton starting in CF 5-6 times per week? I doubt it. If you don't have Jenkins or Rodriguez on the roster, that means you're starting Martin or Kreidler and one or both have to face RHP. 

I would've waived Jackson yesterday. This team just can't seem to get out of their own way with roster mismanagement. Alex Jackson is now such a prized commodity that the Twins need to burn a roster spot to stash him? Insanity...but end rant. 

Jenkins is already a better defender than Martin, and you don't have to wait until a LHP takes the mound to *maybe* spot start him. Also, this team isn't exactly tearing it up offensively right now. The notion that there isn't room, or PAs, for somebody like Walker Jenkins doesn't vibe with me. 

While I might make a different decision since I'm a fan and not a front office guy, I think the decision to keep Jackson on the roster at the likely expense of calling up Jenkins is defensible. Jackson's roster spot depends a little bit about how you prioritize this year versus next year. If we waive him, he's gone and another team will use his arbitration year next year so he's gone for 2026 and for 2027. I suspect the thinking is that we will need him in 2027 two pair with Caratini when Jeffers is gone and he's better than anything we have in the minors or likely to be available on the free agent market, particularly at is likely less than $2 million a year price.

So the key question is what's more important, adding a bat Jenkins who could but might not help us more than Jackson for the stretch run in 2026 or having Jackson available in 2027 to be a platoon/backup catcher? Seems to be that depends on whether you think were going to be more of a "contender" in 2027 then we are this year. It seems more likely than not that we will be more of a contender next year when all of the currently injured pitching is assumedly available, particularly Lopez, but who knows. They could all get hurt again. I think the Twins thinking is that the team will be better next year with Lopez and the other injured pitchers back and they're prioritizing having experienced decent quality catching next year over the contribution they think Jenkins can bring for the rest of 2026. I might not make the same decision but I think it's defensible.