Why Marek Houston is the Twins’ Most Underrated Prospect

[Chembry]

Baseball America released their August in season update today.  Marek Houston is now on their top 100 list at #90.  Culpepper started at #74 in January and now up to #26 in this most recent update. 

The 5 Twins prospects are:

Walker Jenkins (#10)

Vaugh Lackey (#23)

Kaelen Culpepper (#26)

Emmanuel Rodriguez (#45)

Marek Houston (#90) 

Prielipp was on the list but graduated in their July update.  Not Twins related anymore, but Dasan Hill was up to #86 in the May update, but dropped off the list by July.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

Baseball America released their August in season update today.  Marek Houston is now on their top 100 list at #90.  Culpepper started at #74 in January and now up to #26 in this most recent update. 

The 5 Twins prospects are:

Walker Jenkins (#10)

Vaugh Lackey (#23)

Kaelen Culpepper (#26)

Emmanuel Rodriguez (#45)

Marek Houston (#90) 

Prielipp was on the list but graduated in their July update.  Not Twins related anymore, but Dasan Hill was up to #86 in the May update, but dropped off the list by July.

I'll say that's too low for Houston!

[DataNerd]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I hear a lot of talk about K-Pepper becoming the next Twins 3B. And I have no doubt he could be good there. But I've been pleased by Lee's play at 3B and it should only get stronger. Wouldn't we prefer the more athletic KC at 2B to create a great DP combo with Houston?

With his arm, he would be a better 3B than 2B; however, KC at 2B and Lee at 3B is much better than switching them around, and KC would be an above-average 2B.

[DataNerd]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll say that's too low for Houston!

Incredibly low.  Publications in general are way too low on recently drafted players and are hesitant to rank them highly until they hit well in the minors, and are slow to move up the guys who really hit well.

Marek Houston is pretty much repeating what Culpepper did, and is a higher draft pick and better fielder, but Culpepper is 26 and Houston is 90.  IMO, I have Houston above Culpepper (and I really like Culpepper)

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

With his arm, he would be a better 3B than 2B; however, KC at 2B and Lee at 3B is much better than switching them around, and KC would be an above-average 2B.

Agreed. If I'm the Twins, Houston and Culpeper are in ST Paul playing those positions there right now.. and starting with the Twins day one next year..

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Always an excuse for not calling up rookies. 

Always myopic people who can’t see the bigger picture 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Always myopic people who can’t see the bigger picture 

How has signing awful veterans worked out? I see the whole picture just fine. 

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I could really find myself liking a Houston/Culpepper double play combination.   Right now we have the defensively square peg Keaschall and the question is where are we going to find a home for him.  Ultimately I think 2nd will be his home.   I have always been a big Lee fan and I think as a depth piece that plays 50/60% - I think thats the role he will fill out to.  

Here are your options by mid year

3rd Lee,  SS Houston,  2nd Culpepper 1st Lewis/Clemens

or 

3rd Culpepper  SS Houston 2nd Keaschall/Clemens/Lee  1st Lewis

I'm not saying Keaschall can't work really hard on his 2B defense and end up there still. In fact, I hope he puts in a TON of work there in the offseason. If nothing else, it just makes him more "usable" there going forward. 

But my current belief is the Twins are done with him at 2B as his primary position. Despite obvious growing pains, I really like what I've seen from him in the OF, even if he's making some mistakes and learning on the fly, some MILB time in the OF not withstanding.

I've sort of adopted the thinking of Gleeman that a Super Utility player is someone who plays SS, like Kreidler. While a Utility player is someone who can play multiple positions solidly, just not SS.

With the improvement he's made with his bat and glove, I'm liking Lee more and more at SS and the more athletic Culpepper at 2B. And Lewis as the primary 1B. Clemens can provide solid play at 5 spots, and Keaschall potentially the same, as he's also played a little 1B in the minors. It wouldn't hurt if he was a 3rd option at 1B just for roster/lineup flexibility.

That's a really good looking INF with a trio of SU and U players backing up, filling in, all capable of playing some OF as well. 

[DataNerd]

7 hours ago, TJSweens said:

It would have taken a lot more than Culpepper to get the kind of pitcher you are describing. The Twins need a whole new infield. Lee is not the answer at 3B, Culpepper could be. 

Lee has a 1.5 fWAR, 99 wRC+ and -0.7 runs DEF, has been average at 3B and is 25.  I'm nowhere close to giving up on Lee, he's a cheap average player.

[jkcarew]

The most overrated prospect would get more clicks. 😀 Just say’in.

[Andy MacPhail]

9 hours ago, killercarewoliva said:

thanks for the lessons but for sure we agree on Houston. What is your idea of advancing Houston?

Thank you, IMO, Houston's glove is MLB-ready yet there is no need to rush his bat. When Culpepper is promoted to MLB, Houston will get his chance at AAA. Under the wild scenario I stated before, IMO, I wouldn't push Houston to start in MLB any time soon.

[TJSweens]

3 hours ago, DataNerd said:

Lee has a 1.5 fWAR, 99 wRC+ and -0.7 runs DEF, has been average at 3B and is 25.  I'm nowhere close to giving up on Lee, he's a cheap average player.

You're citing stats in which I place very little stock. Lee is trending down at the plate. He is defensively limited. He looks like a utility player to me at this point. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Definitely massively underrated. Houston is easily my favorite Twins prospect and has been since last year. He won me over with his defense, the bat coming around like it has is fun to watch. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

22 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

And Noah Miller's excellent defense at SS is his best asset. After seeing him field his position at spring training when he was in the Twins organization, I became a big Noah Miller fan. I was extremely disappointed when he was traded, and the players the Twins received in the trade were woefully inadequate.  Remember Margot set the major league record for the most at bats as a pinch hitter in a season with NO HITS. ...30. Rocco kept running him out to pinch hit, I guess figuring the odds were in Margot's favor. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

22 hours ago, Coach said:

Can't wait for Culpepper to get his call up so we can see how Houston handles AAA.

Culpepper will be an excellent second baseman.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

The Twins have already been having Culpepper play more 3B recently. I don't think Culpepper being called up is a requirement for Houston to move to AAA (or MLB). Culpepper has been ice cold since his return from injury so he's got some rust to work out.

Houston is on his own path right now. There isn't a lot for him left to prove at AA, but getting to 200 PA would be meaningful for sample size. Not sure if the Twins will wait or not.

Who will play 2B with Culpepper at 3B? Lee?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

20 hours ago, arby58 said:

Hindsight is always 20-20.

True, but I felt that trading Miller was a mistake at the time he was traded. I told you so here on TD posts. I value defense.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

19 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Again we could have picked him up as a rule 5 draft pick this year.  

Please explain this post. Are you saying the Twins could have gotten Louis Varland as a rule 5 draft pick in 2026?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

25 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Please explain this post. Are you saying the Twins could have gotten Louis Varland as a rule 5 draft pick in 2026?

Noah Miller. 

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How has signing awful veterans worked out? I see the whole picture just fine. 

Position players was the discussion. Bell is at league average as a batter. That would neither be awful or good. That same description could be used for Caratini since he is hitting near average for a catcher. Gray is a minor signing brought back up because of injuries. He really would not.have been brought back up without the failed development of a young shortstop.  So if you wish to say awful vets when talking about position players, please feel free to define awful. Kreidler did not have even a year’s worth of service time.  If you are complaining they used awful veteran pitchers, look at the success rate of the minor league pitchers. When called up.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Noah Miller. 

Oh, I understand now Thanks. 

[tony&rodney]

MLB teams take/make their own note/statistics on every play. When the coaching staff decided that Royce Lewis needed a reset to clear himself of some unfortunate habits, which were due in part to legs/ poor foundation, they also discussed his future as a defender. Thus the move to third base for Brooks Lee, who clearly was/is not near the caliber of defender needed to play shortstop at the MLB level. The scouting reports on Lee, almost from the beginning, projected him as a regular at third base with the potential to hit well enough to hold a corner infield job. Brooks Lee has accepted his move although he did state that he still saw himself as a shortstop since that was almost the only position he ever played in baseball. No doubt, Lee was shown the notes and knows that his future is as a corner infielder. Lee has a pretty thick body type. Luke Keaschall has played primarily as a second baseman and outfielder as a baseball player. His most notable asset is as an on base machine who can run, takes a walk, and does not strike out very much. Defensively Keaschall is extremely challenged. Part of this is due to a poor arm and any improvement hoped for there was set back when he had Tommy John surgery two years ago. A broken arm sure didn't help him. The biggest problem for Keaschall as a defender is instinctual reaction to swings. Plainly put, Luke has a delay that nearly makes it impossible for him to play in the infield because many balls are already by him before he reacts and balls hit right at him can handcuff Keaschall. The quick feet and foot speed thus largely negated as an infielder. In the outfield Keaschall has used a strategy of playing deeper to give himself a better chance to use his speed. We have seen where said speed is used to track down a few balls. However, it seems unlikely that Keaschall will improve enough to reach an average level. Teams that value defense would want Luke to be their DH. His ability to get on base is good and it is also likely that power is improved with experience. 15 home runs and 40 doubles are not out of the range of where one could see Keaschall's production reach. The defense will remain a problem if he plays in the field, although he is hidden better in right field than elsewhere.

The post was about Marek Houston though and it will be interesting to see how aggressively the Twins promote him. He could be the Twins shortstop next season. As I have written elsewhere, Houston has made impressive changes to his game at the plate. He won't be able to run wild in MLB as he has in A+/AA, but he is pretty fast and is a good baserunner. The glove is good and plays. He isn't elite as a shortstop but rather quite smooth and very dependable with an excellent internal clock on how quickly he needs to get rid of the ball based on the runner. I'm hoping Houston leaps forward next year. I also think Houston is a player who will improve from year to year.

[killercarewoliva]

14 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

Thank you, IMO, Houston's glove is MLB-ready yet there is no need to rush his bat. When Culpepper is promoted to MLB, Houston will get his chance at AAA. Under the wild scenario I stated before, IMO, I wouldn't push Houston to start in MLB any time soon.

thank you

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Who will play 2B with Culpepper at 3B? Lee?

Who knows with this front office? Maybe Bailey "positional flexibility!" Ober?

Lee, Keaschall, Lewis, Clemens. I'm not sure.

Who "should" play is open to debate as well. I don't know how strong Kaelen Culpepper's arm is, really. It's graded as a 60, but that's subjective. He's going to be rangy-er than Lee, and he probably has a stronger arm too. It's possible Culpepper should be at 2B and Lewis should be at 3B. No idea.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

True, but I felt that trading Miller was a mistake at the time he was traded. I told you so here on TD posts. I value defense.

So we’re all supposed to applaud your foresight in not trading a player who is hitting .250 two years later in AAA? Got it - give yourself a hand.

 

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

36 minutes ago, arby58 said:

So we’re all supposed to applaud your foresight in not trading a player who is hitting .250 two years later in AAA? Got it - give yourself a hand.

 

 

 

You got me.  I plead guilty. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Who knows with this front office? Maybe Bailey "positional flexibility!" Ober?

Lee, Keaschall, Lewis, Clemens. I'm not sure.

Who "should" play is open to debate as well. I don't know how strong Kaelen Culpepper's arm is, really. It's graded as a 60, but that's subjective. He's going to be rangy-er than Lee, and he probably has a stronger arm too. It's possible Culpepper should be at 2B and Lewis should be at 3B. No idea.

Quite the conundrum.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Take a guess where I put Marek in Brock’s fan prospect list?

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, arby58 said:

So we’re all supposed to applaud your foresight in not trading a player who is hitting .250 two years later in AAA? Got it - give yourself a hand.

I wish Miller were still in the Twins' system.  He was a HS draftee and people have been impatient.  He's been almost a textbook example of improvement each season at the plate - either by hitting about the same but in a harder league the next season, or getting promoted mid-season and seeing his batting stats drop a bit only to have them bounce back when repeating the same level the next season.  He's 23 years old and at AAA and, given his glove is still stellar, he needs just one more round of hitting improvement next season to look viable in the majors.  Can he do that at age 24?  We'll see..  Is he a sure thing?  No - hardly any prospect outside the top tier can be considered to be.  Would I bet against him?  Also no.

What we got in return for him in trade stinks, stank, stunk.

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I wish Miller were still in the Twins' system.  He was a HS draftee and people have been impatient.  He's been almost a textbook example of improvement each season at the plate - either by hitting about the same but in a harder league the next season, or getting promoted mid-season and seeing his batting stats drop a bit only to have them bounce back when repeating the same level the next season.  He's 23 years old and at AAA and, given his glove is still stellar, he needs just one more round of hitting improvement next season to look viable in the majors.  Can he do that at age 24?  We'll see..  Is he a sure thing?  No - hardly any prospect outside the top tier can be considered to be.  Would I bet against him?  Also no.

What we got in return for him in trade stinks, stank, stunk.

It’s still just hindsight, and he’s hardly a player to lose sleep about losing. I’ll take the over on Culpepper and Houston. Where is he gonna play then other than AAA?