Grading Every Trade from the Minnesota Twins' 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Kremer's HR rate and OPS-against this season amount to him making opposing batters the equivalent of Hunter Goodman.  Maybe the HR rate will revert, but he's always been a bit high relative to the league.  And I don't see an "unlucky" BABIP waiting to come back down in his favor.  His final two starts for the Orioles raised a big lump on his ERA, but his FIP just before those two games was already above 6 and those two games actually were a little unlucky as the season FIP hardly budged - when ERA and FIP disagree by this much I tend to split the difference (I realize some prefer FIP for predictive value) - I am thinking an ERA around 5 for the remainder of the season.

Maybe that quad injury flared up again, and Kremer won't be fully right until a full off-season of rest.  Or, I can hope, the 8 days between starts means that tonight's game will be the Dean Kremer of past seasons, serviceable workhorse.

Kremer's savant page still looks good.  The 3 HR/9  is statistically as likely to remain at that level as the Twins batting average was with RISP.   He could be injured,  He could be toast,  but then I would have thought the Savant page would be showing that.   Even still with Ryan having a dead arm its not like I am making a huge statement by saying he could be our 2nd best SP.  We will see.   

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There's more than one school of thought about how to contend. Some people believe that unless you can look at your team and see them as being one of the top 5 teams in baseball(others might push it a little further out for the range) then you're not a "contender" and should be looking to the next year at best and further out at worst.

Another school of thought says that any year that you can make it into the playoffs in baseball, you should try and do it, because with the impact of a short series and all the additional randomness that brings you want to get as many bites at the playoff apple as you can find.

If you buy into the first, then the twins should have sold off all their expiring vets this year and at least some of their highest value players who won't be here in 2028 and said goodnight to the season (absent a miracle run from maybe a bunch of prospects that could be called up to fill out the roster and audition for 2027).

If you're in on the second, then this trade deadline was a reasonable move to try and make it into the playoffs this season without hamstringing 2027 and beyond. They shored up their biggest weaknesses, they didn't move any of their top prospects, and the guys they did send out were either very marginal or likely far away from making an impact.

It sounds like to me your definition of "contending for WS title" is closer to a Bucket 1 approach...so yeah. This is a failure to you. Others will disagree?

They're also trying to sell baseball as a product in MN. A "trust the process" approach where they sell off assets again for a team that is functionally in the playoff hunt (regardless of what you think their chances of winning it all this year are or not, they have a legit chance to be in the playoffs this year, presuming they don't sh!t the bed in August) wrecks things for the rest of the season and probably torpedoes all lot of fan enthusiasm (and ticket sales) for next year too.

You're correct: none of these players will probably be with the Twins after '27, and it's unlikely Ryan and Jeffers will either. (Jeffers almost for sure, Ryan...getting a little more interesting with him tanking the second half AGAIN, but who knows) Of course, none of the players they sent out were all that likely to be with the Twins MLB club after 2027 either: Amick is a longshot, Klein is unimpressive and unlikely to improve much at this point, and all the others are far enough away that pretending they're on the twins by 2028 is just guessing.

Clearly, you were just out on this team going into the trade deadline. If you're someone that wants the Twins to make the playoffs as many time as possible, you're probably ok with these moves that add to those odds and don't substantively harm the team for next year (and potentially improve them)

Thank you for the response.  Truly.

I’m as pleased and excited as anyone about the success the team has had this season.  I watch every game and respect the effort and camaraderie exhibited by the players and coaches.

I disagree that all the players we gave away in the traded would never be on the Twins.  Think about how many times we could say that about current and former Twins who never looked like making it early in their minor league careers.

Ryan (from last year’s deadline through this year’s ASG) has been at peak trade value.  What we turned down for him last year from the Bosox  (a LH starter currently outperforming Ryan and a consensus top 7 SS prospect) isn’t even in the same zip code as to what we might get now.   Jeffers had to be at peak value this very week.  Now we are looking at best at a comp pick for him.

Just my opinion, but that is not good roster management for a small market franchise like the Twins who clearly are looking to create a true window (and justifiably so) in ‘28 post the impending lockout.

Yes, I’m skeptical that this team can make the playoffs this year. I’m even more skeptical that they will win a series.  Agree, not too much damage was done to our future from the trades (more damage was done by keeping Ryan and Jeffers).  But it will be fun to watch how the rest of the season unfolds.  I’m looking forward to it. Who knows given how well they have outperformed already, right?  It’s just not the cost-benefit conclusion I would’ve thought prudent unless there were other considerations involved.

Which leads to your very excellent point and the true crux of the matter.  TP, et al, bought some excellent goodwill from the media and the fans with these manoeuvres.  Surely that has some benefit to the overall franchise. A few more seats in chairs can’t hurt.  It may certainly, from a PR perspective, keep the hounds at bay, particularly if the team can stay in the race into the fall. Those things undoubtedly have value. But at what expense?

The moves (or lack thereof) were a calculated, but neither all-in or all-out risk.  But it cannot be said that the team’s prospects post ‘27 are now improved.  That is when the true opportunity to put a contender on the field begins. And for many of us fans, competing for a WS is really all that matters. If these trades or keeping Ryan and Jeffers prevent even one or two better starters from being on the team at that point, then the cost may not be worth it.

[weitz41]

It's hard for me to give a grade on the deadline moves without knowing if or how much of a 2027 season there will be...

With all or let's say 100+ games in 2027..B maybe B-

With no or less the 1/2 the games in 2027..C to D+

These includes what they may have gotten for Jeffers and Larnach.

Getting Money and another year of control with Kremer and Hoffman is big to me.

The Twin's window hasn't even opened yet. Next season if might.