Trade Deadline Day

[clone52]

Do we need a thread specific for today?

Always fun to think about what the Twins would have to give up for guys that were traded.

Gausman, Soriano, Arraez, etc.

[Saxophone Joe]

Unpopular opinion: Am I the only one who won't mind if they just stand pat today? 

 

[MMBoys93]

If they’re gonna keep Jeffers they should move Caratini. Shouldn’t be keeping 3 catchers and outside of June his bat has been poor and he’s just blocking ABs from other guys and AAA guys. 

This really depends on how many games they think Jeffers can catch the rest of the season. Jackson will come back down to earth, all the metrics point to a below average hitter but sending him through waivers would be a mistake. 
 

Jenkins is hitting, Culpepper will start again

And even if the Twins don’t want to go that route-

Mendez- .900 ops vs righties

Sabato- 1.226 ops vs lefties

Roden- should be playing more 

Wallner- 1.033 ops vs righties 

 

Going the rest of the way with Caratini and Bell playing 74% and 95% of games respectively is not it. Even if they hit league average they’re a near negative player. 
Bell- 0.4 bWAR, Caratini- -0.1 bWAR

 

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Unpopular opinion: Am I the only one who won't mind if they just stand pat today? 

I'm with you on that.  I also don't mind if they selectively move someone - Larnach would have been out the door already except for an executive intervention at the Astros, so chances are another deal will be worked out for him.  Of the three catchers, I would move Jackson, for pennies or whatever is offered in preference to a DFA.

I don't forecast much post-season success even if they get there, so I would not invest many resources in marginal upgrades to the present roster.  But I part company with some fellow prospect-hounds in that I do see value beyond just "trade value" in expiring assets like Jeffers.  There is marketing value in making the post-season, or even just in being seen as trying for it but failing.  I also think a failure in one post-season series still gives younger members of the roster experience that could pay off in a future post-season run.

So, as usual, put me down as "on the fence" or "middle of the road" in my preferred approach to this deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm with you on that.  I also don't mind if they selectively move someone - Larnach seems like would have been out the door already except for an executive intervention at the Astros, so chances are another deal will be worked out for him.  Of the three catchers, I would move Jackson, for pennies or whatever is offered in preference to a DFA.

I don't forecast much post-season success even if they get there, so I would not invest many resources in marginal upgrades to the present roster.  But I part company with some fellow prospect-hounds in that I do see value beyond just "trade value" in expiring assets like Jeffers.  There is marketing value in making the post-season, or even just in being seen as trying for it but failing.  I also think a failure in one post-season series still gives younger members of the roster experience that could pay off in a future post-season run.

So, as usual, put me down as "on the fence" or "middle of the road" in my preferred approach to this deadline.

I agree, keeping Jeffers helps convince fans they aren't giving up. 

I also agree, I have zero interest in giving up the future for this roster. 

If they get a great player with three years of control, I'm listening.....

[clone52]

47 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Unpopular opinion: Am I the only one who won't mind if they just stand pat today? 

 

I would be disappointed.  There are a couple of trades on the edges that could help them this year.  Going and Getting Detmers would be good for the next couple years.

 

If they just stand pat, then I wouldn't consider this a buying trade deadline and if they aren't going to buy, they should be getting value for Jeffers and probably Larnach plus any pending free agent like Bell and Rogers.

 

Nothing is probably the only thing I wouldn't be okay with.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, clone52 said:

I would be disappointed.  There are a couple of trades on the edges that could help them this year.  Going and Getting Detmers would be good for the next couple years.

 

If they just stand pat, then I wouldn't consider this a buying trade deadline and if they aren't going to buy, they should be getting value for Jeffers and probably Larnach plus any pending free agent like Bell and Rogers.

 

Nothing is probably the only thing I wouldn't be okay with.

Same

[clone52]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

Same

If they could get Robbie Ray for something like the Cubs gave up for Gausman, I would be happy.

If they could get Detmers for something like the Jays gave up for Soriano with Tait or Rodriguez as the headliner, I would be happy.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I will say I keep hitting refresh here and on the mlbtraderumors site.   

As to the Twins,  I just don't want them to do something stupid.  I am honestly thinking we should keep Larnach for next year and would be fine with trading Jeffers now if its a great deal or keep him and give a QO.  

With as busy as we were early and with the failed trade to Houston I expected something else to drop,  but looks like we will be waiting until the last hour or two to see if they do anything.   

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, clone52 said:

I would be disappointed.  There are a couple of trades on the edges that could help them this year.  Going and Getting Detmers would be good for the next couple years.

 

If they just stand pat, then I wouldn't consider this a buying trade deadline and if they aren't going to buy, they should be getting value for Jeffers and probably Larnach plus any pending free agent like Bell and Rogers.

 

Nothing is probably the only thing I wouldn't be okay with.

Detmers is at twice his innings from last year, people seem oddly unconcerned about that. What would you give up for 1.5 years of him?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I do think the front office will be extremely tight lipped after the fiasco with Houston was leaked.   

[jaimedude]

11 minutes ago, clone52 said:

If they could get Robbie Ray for something like the Cubs gave up for Gausman, I would be happy.

If they could get Detmers for something like the Jays gave up for Soriano with Tait or Rodriguez as the headliner, I would be happy.

 

There is a lot of competition for Ray. 

[clone52]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Detmers is at twice his innings from last year, people seem oddly unconcerned about that. What would you give up for 1.5 years of him?

Its 2.5 years.  Not a free agent until 2029.  I would model it after the Soriano trade the Angels just made.

The only way I'd do it is if Tait or Rodriguez is the headliner.  Both are positions of organizational depth.  That is the piece similar to Nimala.  Then you are talking a AA college guy, noit a major prospect.  Lets say Caden Kendle.  Someone who is maybe Top 15-20 at max if they need a little more for Detmers.  Add on a young lottery pitcher, maybe Santiago Rojas or something.

[Saxophone Joe]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I do think the front office will be extremely tight lipped after the fiasco with Houston was leaked.   

Also thought it was pretty lame the Twins FO all but confirmed it off the record to reporters, too. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Also thought it was pretty lame the Twins FO all but confirmed it off the record to reporters, too. 

Whoever did that likely got a tongue lashing.  

[clone52]

5 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

There is a lot of competition for Ray. 

Yeah, as there was for Gausman I'm sure, but worse now.  Best bet is if the Giants like a Twins prospect more than they do other teams.

If you model it like the Gausman trade, then Ben Ross + Ricardo Dominguez maybe gets it done.  Probably slightly higher due to being later.  I also don't know what the Giants want, but it seems like that level of prospects is what it would take.

[mnfireman]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I do think the front office will be extremely tight lipped after the fiasco with Houston was leaked.   

Didn't both teams announce it (unofficially) until HOU owner stepped in and over-rule his GM?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Didn't both teams announce it (unofficially) until HOU owner stepped in and over-rule his GM?

The initial leak seems to have come from Astros side.  However on the Twins who confirmed a trade got cancelled late (Dan Hayes is going over it on a current podcast),  Shelton came out yesterday and said the front office personnel should keep quiet.  That's a pretty strong statement from one of the top 3 faces of management of the Twins.   

[howeda7]

I look forward to Jeremy Zoll's version of:

"We were close on many deals. We tried and tried"

"Just couldn't find the right fit"

"Getting Buxton back this week is just like making a trade"

"Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make"

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I look forward to Jeremy Zoll's version of:

"We were close on many deals. We tried and tried"

"Just couldn't find the right fit"

"Getting Buxton back this week is just like making a trade"

"Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make"

They will get a deal or 2 done.  The question is what it is.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

It appears Adley to the Red Sox is all but done.  Just going through the medicals.  

Could put more pressure on the Yankees to see if they can pry Jeffers from the Twins.   Would the Twins be willing to swap for Warren?   

[AbsolutelyRanched]

It can't possibly be as fun as last year but a guy can hope.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Unpopular opinion: Am I the only one who won't mind if they just stand pat today? 

 

No!

[jaimedude]

Would like to see the Twins add a bat. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Would like to see the Twins add a bat. 

Bats are much more scarce this year which is increasing the value.  Pitching is actually going more cheaply.  With the Rangers going into sellers mode, and the Mariners no longer dangling Arozarena,  this would be the right time to potentially strike on a Jeffers or Larnach deal.   1 or the other in my opinion, not both.   The deal for Arraez was effectively full price.  

[MGX]

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Unpopular opinion: Am I the only one who won't mind if they just stand pat today? 

 

If Minter is the most impactful player we acquire this isn't really buying at the deadline. If that's the case maybe we should have sold expiring contracts.

This team has clawed & scratched it's way to around .500, but they need a real boost to push for the playoffs IMO.

There is still time to make a big move. The Angels have been the most active sellers as expected & now that they acquired a young SS, the Twins could still make a big move for Neto & Detmers. I know it's not going to happen, but that would make things interesting.

[Linus]

One reason I was against “going for it” was that to truly increase playoff odds would require some bold maybe risky moves which I never believed the Twins had the stomach for (rightfully so).  What they’ve done so far isn’t really buying and of course they are potentially passing up an opportunity to reset the franchise. Obviously they have today so I might be jumping the gun on this post. 

[nicksaviking]

59 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I look forward to Jeremy Zoll's version of:

"Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make"

Yeah, but this one is typically correct, particularly when you're a fence straddler like the Twins. The available veterans they could chase are mostly bad to average players with severe red flags and glaring faults.

The trade deadline and free agency as a mid-market 'buyer' feels like taking my kids to a garage sale where they'll be damned if they don't come away with at least ONE treasure. But of course a week later it's clear we already had better treasure at home and that useless trinket is now headed for goodwill. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, Linus said:

One reason I was against “going for it” was that to truly increase playoff odds would require some bold maybe risky moves which I never believed the Twins had the stomach for (rightfully so).  What they’ve done so far isn’t really buying and of course they are potentially passing up an opportunity to reset the franchise. Obviously they have today so I might be jumping the gun on this post. 

I do think they reset the franchise, but they really could have finished it.  Granted, they can still get value from Jeffers even if they don't trade him with the QO.  The Twins will likely end up with 3 first round draft picks unless draft compensation changes for small market teams with the new bargaining agreement which it could.  He can make some big swings at pitching or hitting at the end of the 1st round.  

Add in it appears we have hit on Marek Houston.  If Vahn Lackey is the real deal,  Marek Houston, Jenkins, Culpepper,  Lackey, Mendez at 1st (I have loved him since the last deadline).  You only need to hit on 1-2 more outfielders.  Pitching is the question.  Can we find enough high impact arms.    I think they will. Bradley so far looks like the real deal.    I wish they would have done 1 more tank year though of selling Jeffers and Ryan but its ok.  Buxton will be here long term and he will be fine as a 7-9 hitter.  

Here is where it gets interesting.  The 2022 draft the Twins pretty well nailed.  Other than not getting a high ceiling on Lee which was expected they nailed that draft.  The 2026 draft we haven't seen the arms,  and we have only seen a few games at A ball,  but the 6 hitters look legit.  You have Lackey who already is showing he is pretty polished,  Tinney has immense power with the hardest hit in the Twins org this year and the hardest hit in Fort Myers in 11 years, some strike out concerns but controls the at bat well and I think we will get some positive developments on his defense.   Then Teel, Turner, Lane and Schlovin all look solid.  Its a small sample size,  but if 3 of the 4 can become legit prospects along with Tinney and Lackey this could be a home run of a draft and we haven't even seen the pitching which I am pretty optimistic about.  The younger pitchers are also starting to flash in the system a little pit.  Dasan Hill just had his best outing.  Matt Barr struggled a little bit adjusting but was throwing 96 mph and had much better control in his first start in A ball.  Reitz is settling in as well.   Quick has been solidly above average already up to AA.    We need a healthy Soto and Ellwanger.  We have the arms and body types to do well. Add in the 2026 group of arms who we have some more high octane arms and we may have rebuilt the farm system in 1 year.   

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Would like to see the Twins add a bat. 

Like whom? To replace whom?