Are 30% Playoff Odds Enough for Twins to Buy at MLB Trade Deadline?

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

That would be fine, the problem is the cost of quality relief pitching is highest right now.  How much are you willing to pay for a reliever?

Look at what Philly spent last year. It's expensive. 

[Linus]

It seems like our attention is laser focused on the 30% and doesn’t even compute the 70%. 

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

It seems like our attention is laser focused on the 30% and doesn’t even compute the 70%. 

How many .300 hitters are there this year? Most players would be pretty happy with 30%.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Craig Arko said:

How many .300 hitters are there this year? Most players would be pretty happy with 30%.

Huh?

[Hunter4848]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Vikings training camp starts August 1. Lynx basketball playoff games start September 27. Everyone will be too busy talking football and basketball to pay attention to what the Twins are doing.

The overlap between Twins fans and Lynx fans is tiny especially considering they have 12 fans to begin with...

[Twinsrtheworst]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Prielipp is at 91 innings pitched this year. I'd be absolutely floored if they let him go more than about 120ish to chase a playoff birth with a below .500 team. I don't know what the right answer is on inning jumps season to season, but teams tend to be pretty conservative with it. If their data says you can just let him rip for the whole season, do it. But if they have good reason to believe him throwing more than 120 (or whatever the number is) innings this year seriously increases the odds he gets injured late this year or next year, I really, really, really hope they don't push him for a team that can't even get above .500 by late July. 

And to add that to my earlier comment about Ryan, I REALLY don't want them to risk Prielipp's arm in a season where your playoff rotation would be Bradley, a cooked Ryan, and Ober throwing 88 MPH backed up by an over extended Prielipp and unpredictable Rojas and Matthews. I get people want playoff baseball, but I'm not a fan of adding so much risk to future years for this team.

If Ryan doesn't look, and perform, like his typical first half self tomorrow, I don't want them doing anything beyond trading a DeBarge type for a reliever. Unless they find a way to bring in Hancock. If they can get him, it'd change my view on other moves.

So…. Base what we do off of what Ryan does in one start, unless we can get Hancock.. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Twinsrtheworst said:

So…. Base what we do off of what Ryan does in one start, unless we can get Hancock.. 

Yes. Well, that's what it was before Buxton left this game with his hip. If Ryan is cooked (so, not actually just one start, but him getting lit up in his last start, plus having this one pushed back nearly a full turn of the rotation, and his entire career showing he fades in the 2nd half already) and Buxton is hitting the IL, it would significantly change what I'd do.

[TheLeviathan]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes. Well, that's what it was before Buxton left this game with his hip. If Ryan is cooked (so, not actually just one start, but him getting lit up in his last start, plus having this one pushed back nearly a full turn of the rotation, and his entire career showing he fades in the 2nd half already) and Buxton is hitting the IL, it would significantly change what I'd do.

Only confirmation of the right thing to do anyway friend.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Unless Tom Pohlad is trying to anger the fan base yet again, the answer is yes. 30% is enough. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

Unless Tom Pohlad is trying to anger the fan base yet again, the answer is yes. 30% is enough. 

Given the attendance numbers his sample size to irritate is at least pretty damn low!

[miller761]

I feel they have a better than 30% chance of winning their division - no wild card needed. If they can add some pitching without losing any of the top prospects I think that would be great. Chemistry is important and that is evident that the present club has that going. Make a few additions that cost middle of the road prospects and see what happens.

[RaoulDuke]

They are in such a strange place with contention vs selling this year.  500 in a very weak AL it makes sense to buy and go for it however the team has some major weaknesses that won't be patched over with fringy additions.

Buxton and Ryan are the 2 most important players and both are questionable health wise for the stretch run, the pen (even bolstered) will top out at mediocre, the defense is bad, and the rotation is an injury away from disaster.

I think they will add a couple mid tier relievers so they can say that they were buyers and supported this years team.  Jeffers is still likely to get sold and they will excuse that with impending free agency.  I think Ryan has tanked his value enough with the 6 homer game and arm fatigue break that he will not be moved until the off season.

[Twinsrtheworst]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Given the attendance numbers his sample size to irritate is at least pretty damn low!

Well it is easy to irritate the irritable. And what I mean by that is it sounded to me during the offseason, fans were checked out before the season started anyway, Then those same checked out fans want the Twins to not make a postseason push. It seems like a central theme here…. Of don’t support the team and “the fans that support the team (such as myself) are the problem”, but also don’t try to win this year. Like a hamster wheel, round and round.

[Twinsrtheworst]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Only confirmation of the right thing to do anyway friend.

According to….. fans that chose not to support the team before the season started? I wonder how many old timey  members would be upset by making the playoffs this year, 

[Twinsrtheworst]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes. Well, that's what it was before Buxton left this game with his hip. If Ryan is cooked (so, not actually just one start, but him getting lit up in his last start, plus having this one pushed back nearly a full turn of the rotation, and his entire career showing he fades in the 2nd half already) and Buxton is hitting the IL, it would significantly change what I'd do.

I don’t believe Ryan is cooked,  If he is “cooked” like you seem to hope he is, nobody is trading for him anyways.. What makes you think that? So to clarify, if he goes 6 innings of 1 run ball. Are you saying it’s ok to try and win the division or is Buxton the new caveat in this? I’m trying to keep up with this thought process, It seems to be morphing, maybe I could understand it better.

[Linus]

According to Zoll the answer is yes so here we go. I will be interested to watch it unfold as there are many different versions of buying. My fervent wish is that no prospect with potential is given up for a rental. If the trade solves a problem for multiple years that’s ok. This is not the path I would have chosen but I’ve posted my feelings on this numerous times so now I will sit back and hope for some shrewd additions. 

[TheLeviathan]

43 minutes ago, Twinsrtheworst said:

Well it is easy to irritate the irritable. And what I mean by that is it sounded to me during the offseason, fans were checked out before the season started anyway, Then those same checked out fans want the Twins to not make a postseason push. It seems like a central theme here…. Of don’t support the team and “the fans that support the team (such as myself) are the problem”, but also don’t try to win this year. Like a hamster wheel, round and round.

I'm glad you're enjoying the season.  I don't think the best interests of the team are to waste potential trade assets on a low upside season.  That's just where we differ.

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

How many .300 hitters are there this year? Most players would be pretty happy with 30%.

I was thinking this exact same thing. I was going to use on base percentage but batting average will make the same point. 

30% odds was created by someone and it doesn't mean that someone is right. 

We are currently a half game behind the final wild card spot and 2 games behind the AL Central leader!

There is an old saying that I love about Baseball. Every team is going to win 54 games and every team is going to lose 54 games. It's the other 54 games that matter. 

. Here we are on July 29... 54 Wins and 54 Losses. Let's get to those games that matter. 

 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm glad you're enjoying the season.  I don't think the best interests of the team are to waste potential trade assets on a low upside season.  That's just where we differ.

Last night's walkoff must have been so devastatingly disappointing for you. Try to keep a stiff upper lip.

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I was thinking this exact same thing. I was going to use on base percentage but batting average will make the same point. 

30% odds was created by someone and it doesn't mean that someone is right. 

We are currently a half game behind the final wild card spot and 2 games behind the AL Central leader!

There is an old saying that I love about Baseball. Every team is going to win 54 games and every team is going to lose 54 games. It's the other 54 games that matter. 

. Here we are on July 29... 54 Wins and 54 Losses. Let's get to those games that matter. 

 

You are correct sir. The correct odds may be 27% 😀. I do like the 54/54/54 analogy - as Herbie famously said “now let’s go out there and take it”. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Twinsrtheworst said:

I don’t believe Ryan is cooked,  If he is “cooked” like you seem to hope he is, nobody is trading for him anyways.. What makes you think that? So to clarify, if he goes 6 innings of 1 run ball. Are you saying it’s ok to try and win the division or is Buxton the new caveat in this? I’m trying to keep up with this thought process, It seems to be morphing, maybe I could understand it better.

Who said I hoped Ryan is cooked? I'd put my money on him being cooked for the rest of this season before I put it on him being a 3.38 ERA pitcher the rest of the year. But that doesn't mean I want him to go from a 3.17 ERA pitcher to a 4.93 ERA pitcher. Those aren't random numbers, by the way. Those are his ERA pre and post All Star break for his career. I'm off the trade Ryan thing now, because I don't think they could get as much value as I'd like because he's reinforced that he's likely to fade in the 2nd half again. Like he has done literally every season of his career. 6 innings of 1 run ball would be encouraging, but it also depends how he gets there and how it looks. I want Ryan to be good. You seem to be confusing making a prediction based on 4+ years of data with me hoping for something. I hope he never gives up a run again in his life, but that wouldn't be a very good prediction on what he'll actually do.

It's ok to try to win the division no matter what I think about who they should trade away, trade for, sign, cut, demote, promote, anything. And it's ok for you to want them to do different moves than I want them to do. Buxton isn't a new caveat, but it's another data point to consider. That's what every decision they make should be about. Data points (some human provided, like by scouts) telling them what the likely outcomes of things are and how certain decisions are likely to affect things. If Buxton goes on the IL and is likely out for 2 to 4 weeks (random numbers, I don't know his actual situation) and Ryan is a mid-4 ERA pitcher, or on the IL because the arm fatigue is actually something more (like in 2023 when he hid his injury), do you think the Twins are likely to succeed the rest of the way? Or do you think it'd hurt their chances to have their "ace" and superstar out? Do you think they should ignore those things or factor them in when they make decisions?

Nothing is morphing. My stance has been the same all season. This team isn't good enough. I'm glad people are excited about them being .500. That doesn't do it for me. They're struggling to beat 2 teams with 45 wins. They're struggling to score runs against the 28th and 29th "best" pitching staffs in baseball. Outside of the As defense handing them half a dozen runs the other night, the Twins have scored 5 runs in 3 games against teams with 4.84 and 5.35 ERAs. Many of us pointed out the unsustainability of their offense performing so much better with RISP than they do the rest of the time. Welcome to the return to the mean.

I hope the Twins win every game. I don't expect them to. I won't be upset if they trade prospects like Kyle DeBarge for a rental reliever. Trade DeBarge, Amick, and Rosario for 3 different relievers. I will be upset if they trade somebody like Riley Quick for a rental starter. If Buxton goes on the IL and they can't beat the Royals with Joe Ryan on the mound, yes, I think that should play a factor in the moves they make between now and 5 PM central on August 3. I'd trade Jeffers no matter what. Don't think anyone is crazy for not wanting that. But it's what I'd do if I were in charge. Won't be mad if they keep him, and I hope he OPSes 1.000 if they do. Don't want them to lose games in order to convince them to trade him. Think they should've decided that already. But it's what I'd like to see them do.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Last night's walkoff must have been so devastatingly disappointing for you. Try to keep a stiff upper lip.

I thoroughly enjoyed it. And I still want them to trade Ryan Jeffers and not give up any meaningful prospect for a team that's been at .500 for 2 of the last 84 games.