Ryan Jeffers 3 years 45-48m?

[darin617]

I would be very happy if the Twins would offer Ryan Jeffers a contract extension now and I would then sell high on Victor Caratini now before the deadline.

I know you could still keep them both. But you need to take advantage of the market and cash in on Caratini if Jeffers would sign an extension.

They can still be buyers and take advantage of having 2 valuable catchers.

[Mike Sixel]

I think he gets five. 

[darin617]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think he gets five. 

Most likely, let's say he accepts 5 years 75m do you sell high on Caratini now? 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Most likely, let's say he accepts 5 years 75m do you sell high on Caratini now? 

I don't sign a catcher to that age. But I understand not everyone agrees. 

[Greglw3]

43 minutes ago, darin617 said:

I would be very happy if the Twins would offer Ryan Jeffers a contract extension now and I would then sell high on Victor Caratini now before the deadline.

I know you could still keep them both. But you need to take advantage of the market and cash in on Caratini if Jeffers would sign an extension.

They can still be buyers and take advantage of having 2 valuable catchers.

That's the amount of years and range of dollars I proposed in Nick Nelson’s thread yesterday for Jeffers. Great minds think alike!

[akmanak]

Here is the thing some need to understand. With the CBA expiring and the anticipation at not having a season next year. The Twins imo won't do any type of signing like this and in fact I am pretty sure they will be trading Jeffers . 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, akmanak said:

Here is the thing some need to understand. With the CBA expiring and the anticipation at not having a season next year. The Twins imo won't do any type of signing like this and in fact I am pretty sure they will be trading Jeffers . 

I'll wager a lot of money there is at least a 100 game season. But it doesn't matter, they aren't signing a catcher into his mid 30s. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

They will give him the QO.  They effectively win either way. 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll wager a lot of money there is at least a 100 game season. 

That's the middle ground I gravitate toward.  There will likely be a work stoppage.  There will be a season worth competing in, with a worthy champion crowned.  These are not contradictory ideas.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They will give him the QO.  They effectively win either way. 

30 million in catchers is a win? For a team that won't spend money? Even if there is a new floor, it will be phased in.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

30 million in catchers is a win? For a team that won't spend money? Even if there is a new floor, it will be phased in.

Pretty sure it’s $23 million. If there is a floor we have to spend. If it’s a partial season or no season we are out minimal, and the talk is out there he would turn it down and the Twins would get one of the last comp picks. The team picking him may also not be penalized.  

[mnfireman]

I don't think the Twins offer Jeffers the QO for the simple fact that Jeffers will take it. He's going to get about $12 MM/year, maybe 3/$36 MM, as the last few years have shown that catchers fall off pretty fast after age 32, if not sooner.

[darin617]

10 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Pretty sure it’s $23 million. If there is a floor we have to spend. If it’s a partial season or no season we are out minimal, and the talk is out there he would turn it down and the Twins would get one of the last comp picks. The team picking him may also not be penalized.  

Odds are pretty good that they will eliminate the QO. It was only good for the elite players and teams used it as a way to earn compensation for players they don't want to resign.

[Linus]

Jeffers is two months from free agency. He is not signing an extension with the Twins. Plus he would absolutely laugh at a 3 year $12 million per offer. He will get way more than that in free agency. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Odds are pretty good that they will eliminate the QO. It was only good for the elite players and teams used it as a way to earn compensation for players they don't want to resign.

Doogie acted as if it is still available this offseason.   After than I think it goes away.  This is likely the last year.  

Researching further - Qualifying offer needs to be made 5 days after the World Series.  Players have until Mid November to accept.  The current CBA goes through December 1st of 2026.   

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Pretty sure it’s $23 million. If there is a floor we have to spend. If it’s a partial season or no season we are out minimal, and the talk is out there he would turn it down and the Twins would get one of the last comp picks. The team picking him may also not be penalized.  

Plus seven for Caratini, though I guess you're trading him in this scenario. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus seven for Caratini, though I guess you're trading him in this scenario. 

Actually 10 for Caratini. He has 3.5 million dollar buyout or they pay 12 million in 2028. Seven is the AAV but he is only getting 4 this year.

I think it is more important to trade Caratini than Jeffers. I think more decline is coming next year.

[jorgenswest]

I would trade Caratini before Jeffers. I would even trade both if I could get an FV50 for Jeffers. We can find out if Alex Jackson can fulfill his once top prospect promise at age 30.

After trading Caratini I would increase the budget and make the QO. I would far prefer spending 23 million on Jeffers than 10 on Caratini and the rest on a Josh Bell type and a couple aging relievers. Give me one above average player and three young players over four mediocre at best veterans.

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would trade Caratini before Jeffers. I would even trade both if I could get an FV50 for Jeffers. We can find out if Alex Jackson can fulfill his once top prospect promise at age 30.

After trading Caratini I would increase the budget and make the QO. I would far prefer spending 23 million on Jeffers than 10 on Caratini and the rest on a Josh Bell type and a couple aging relievers. Give me one above average player and three young players over four mediocre at best veterans.

After the elite pitchers, the free agent market looks absolutely dreadful next year. I typically wouldn't want to pay Jeffers OR Ryan beyond their likely productive years or for more than they'd get on the market, but if the Twins are forced to raise payroll, I'd rather have both players on ugly contracts, than a half dozen ugly players on team friendly contracts clogging up the roster.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus seven for Caratini, though I guess you're trading him in this scenario. 

I think at that point you keep him Mike.  We have a cheap team already.  However it sounds like Jeffers is pretty intent on getting a long term contract.    

[amjgt]

Jeffers' incentive to accept a QO is likely muted by the fact that if there's a shortened 2027 season (let's say 100 games), the $23M he would "lock in" would turn into $14.2M. It's true that any free agent deal he signs would also have the 2027 salary pro-rated down, but the whole reason you'd accept the QO is because you think the $23M you're going to earn is so much higher than the AAV of the contract you'd be forgoing (and risking) for a year. 

But at this hypothetical $14M value for a pro-rated QO, that's actually right in line with where people expect his AAV to be for a free agent contract. 

So.... lower incentive to accept the QO

[amjgt]

4 hours ago, darin617 said:

Odds are pretty good that they will eliminate the QO. It was only good for the elite players and teams used it as a way to earn compensation for players they don't want to resign.

I actually think everything about the QO process works pretty damn well.... other than the part where the signing team has to give up a draft pick. 

If they got rid of that provision, I'm not sure how the players would view the QO process as a bad thing. 

[The Great Hambino]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

I actually think everything about the QO process works pretty damn well.... other than the part where the signing team has to give up a draft pick. 

If they got rid of that provision, I'm not sure how the players would view the QO process as a bad thing. 

Without the draft pick provision, then the QO process has no meaning.  At that point it's just like any other free agent offer.  The draft pick compensation is the QO system.  What purpose does it serve without it?

[amjgt]

21 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Without the draft pick provision, then the QO process has no meaning.  At that point it's just like any other free agent offer.  The draft pick compensation is the QO system.  What purpose does it serve without it?

A team can be given a compensatory pick without another team losing one. 

[jorgenswest]

49 minutes ago, amjgt said:

A team can be given a compensatory pick without another team losing one. 

Too add…

It is a compensatory round pick that a team receives already. Teams do lost draft picks and that loss depends on their luxury tax status. The league could give up that part and seek other ways of balancing competition if that is their true interest.

[bean5302]

I think that was Jeffers' ask last year. 3-4yrs at $12-15MM AAV. Something like that ballpark. I don't think he does that now on the heels of by far the best year of his career. He's not going to get much less than that, but he could explore potentially much more.

Even if Jeffers tails off substantially, barring serious injury, what's the legit worst case scenario? 2-3 years at similar AAV.

[Parfigliano]

22 hours ago, ashbury said:

That's the middle ground I gravitate toward.  There will likely be a work stoppage.  There will be a season worth competing in, with a worthy champion crowned.  These are not contradictory ideas.

How many game season for a champion to be considered unworthy?

[The Great Hambino]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

A team can be given a compensatory pick without another team losing one. 

That is true.  I was thinking of the picks - the one received by the former team and the one given up by the new team - as tied together.  Dropping the penalty but keeping the reward would certainly maintain the QO's relevance.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

That is true.  I was thinking of the picks - the one received by the former team and the one given up by the new team - as tied together.  Dropping the penalty but keeping the reward would certainly maintain the QO's relevance.

In the early days of the QO (I’m not even sure it was called that), the signing team literally had to give their pick to the team losing the player. 

At this point I feel like we are on about the 4th iteration of what the signing team gives up and losing team receives, to the point where it feels like the only thing left to do is to completely do away with the penalty for the signing team. 
 

Maybe you could do something like the signing team drops 10 spots or something, depending on their tax status (but will “tax status” even be a thing in the next CBA?)

And maybe you create a tier above the $50M level…. $150M or more get you to the 20th pick instead of 30th or so?

But all of that sounds more complicated than “let’s just get rid of the draft pick penalty”

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

How many game season for a champion to be considered unworthy?

Shrug.  We'll know it when we see it.  My expectation is most people find the champion worthy and not an asterisk.