Week in Review: Opportunity Is Knocking

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract.  Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.  

If there is a team with real money that wants him, I see 5/75. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If there is a team with real money that wants him, I see 5/75. 

Then thats a 1st round comp pick if he turns down the QO.    Thats effectively what I am looking at.  Yes the last 2 months will make a major determination on his value.  I understand that.   Currently I am stating 50% chance which is what the current estimates are of a $60 million contract.     

[MMMordabito]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Now we're in the most boring sports week of the year... 

You don't get a kick out of Boomer sounding off with, "Back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back!"

[Vanimal46]

Just now, MMMordabito said:

You don't get a kick out of Boomer sounding off with, "Back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back!"

The HR derby is on Netflix... No idea who's calling it on that network. But no, I don't really care about the All Star festivities for any sport. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The HR derby is on Netflix... No idea who's calling it on that network. But no, I don't really care about the All Star festivities for any sport. 

Agrees. I just dont' find them interesting at all.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. 

That ignores the 2023 and 2026 seasons.  You picked Jeffers' worst two seasons out of the most recent four, and Caratini's best two.  2026 isn't complete yet, but that's no reason to throw it out as meaningless.

And even then, best versus worst, Jeffers has a tiny, tiny edge in OPS.  To me, that makes them not especially close as comparable as batters.  Across 2023-26 it's .790 to .723.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract.  Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.  

I don't think 60 would be crazy, no.

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That ignores the 2023 and 2026 seasons.  You picked Jeffers' worst two seasons out of the most recent four, and Caratini's best two.  2026 isn't complete yet, but that's no reason to throw it out as meaningless.

And even then, best versus worst, Jeffers has a tiny, tiny edge in OPS.  To me, that makes them not especially close as comparable as batters.  Across 2023-26 it's .790 to .723.

I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.

[TheLeviathan]

God I hate that the AL is so aggressively sub-mediocre.  

This feels like the year the Vikings chose not to deal Danielle Hunter while playing some astronaut at QB.

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.

I don't have much disagreement with any of these points.  I just didn't think it necessary to overstate the case.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't have much disagreement with any of these points.  I just didn't think it necessary to overstate the case.

Extra dramatics to show how he wasn't at all like the MVP candidates he was being comped against. People tend to be more open to comps when you can give them blind numbers and they can't pick out their favorite Twins player when comped against a guy they aren't as familiar with but certainly don't see as an elite player at the position.

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

God I hate that the AL is so aggressively sub-mediocre.  

This feels like the year the Vikings chose not to deal Danielle Hunter while playing some astronaut at QB.

This.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Bell typically cools off in August which is why contending teams have had no interest in him the last few years.  I hope he continues his June production but history says it is unlikely.

 

Roster sizes only increase by 2 to 28 now and typically one is a pitcher.  So you aren't going to get reinforcements in September or be able to take a look at younger guys like in the past.

If still in contention, that projects to most likely Arcia

[HarmonK03]

9 minutes ago, mickster said:

If still in contention, that projects to most likely Arcia

I hope it's not Arcia, he has no business on a contending team.  He has nothing left to offer at the the major leagues except for the 5th or 6th option as an injury replacement.  No one claimed him when he was available in June.

Culpepper needs to be up here when healthy and Kreidler can be the utilty.  My guess for the extra player would be Fedko or someone similar to be a pinch runner and defensive replacement. 

[Brandon]

16 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

It has been a great first half compared to what I had expected before the season started.  I had thought that the high end of this team was about .500.  Now I think we can be better with some minimal improvements, specifically the bullpen or a starting pitcher.

Here are some of the moves I would be anticipating over the next few weeks:

• When Buxton comes off the IL, I would expect Buxton to return to CF and a platoon of Roden, Keaschall, Martin, and Larnach.  Larnach may end up being traded, which would help alleviate the platoon.
• I would expect Jeffers to be traded at some point.  A lot of the chatter I am reading is suggesting that, since there will be so few sellers, it may come down to competitors trading with each other.  Trading pieces of strength for pieces of weakness.  This is where I expect Jeffers to fall, being traded as a position of strength to another team willing to trade for players we need, not necessarily prospects.
• More bullpen help could be on the way.  The Red Sox just DFA'd our old friend Danny Coulombe.  Like Nance or Go, he wouldn't be the splashiest of pickups.  He could be better than Funderburk or Rojas at this moment in time and provide adequate relief. 
  • The hope would be that he can maintain his defense and occasional production long enough for them to promote Culpepper when he is healthy and built back up again. where we will need Rojas (bullpen or starting).
  • Cole Sands is coming back and that should spell the end for Travis Adams on the ML club for now.  Acton is expected to come back near the end of the month, but I would expect him to be sent to St. Paul or DFA'd when he comes off the IL since he is on the 60-man IL and would require a 40-man spot.
• I can see Caratini getting some games in at 1B again going forward.  This gives an opportunity for Caratini to get playing time and play the platoon game with Lewis.  This has nothing to do with Lewis's production or play in the field.  Just making sure that everyone gets some playing time.
• I hope Buxton's return means the end of Gray on the roster.  Kreidler would be the prominent SS and, I expect similar to Gray, that with more playing time his numbers will revert closer to his career.  Lee could play SS in a pinch, if needed.  Gray or Arcia would still be in St Paul in case Kreidler gets hurt.  Think of Kreidler as a Temu Andrelton Simmons.  He's there to play lockdown SS and any production is a bonus.  The hope would be that he can maintain his defense and production long enough for Culpepper to return from the IL and build himself backup before being promoted.

I doubt Lewis sits much so Cartini can play.  Also while in contention they won't trade Larnarch. Roden will go back down when Buxton is off the DL and Martin will be the backup.  He is not hitting well enough to start.  

[Greglw3]

To me, no brainer. With the quality of the young pitching and the current offense with St. Paul loaded with premium offensive prospects, the clear leaning is toward an increasing level of competitiveness and contention. 

I say Tom Pohlad is boxed into a corner with his public pronouncements and will green light significant upgrades at or before trade deadline.

You extend Jeffers at market value through age 33. 3 yrs, 45-48 MM.

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Your Minnesota Lynx have three (3) home games this week!!

 

 

I'll be on the lookout for you near courtside... Or starting the tarps off trend in the rafters of Target Center.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Do we really know what the Twins think about Gray.  Many on here think his roster spot is in jeopardy but yet he again played two of the three games this weekend.  Beside the platoon advantage, they seem to favor him over Kreidler and it truly baffles me.

70/75% RH pitching…….. they play the odds with platoons. Gray gets those starts & Kreidler isn’t an “everyday player” ….., at least he hasn’t been. Kreidler has been the choice in CF with Buxton out - until the last few games with the roll of the dice with Keaschall.

I fully expect that the ONLY negative WAR player on the Roster (Gray) will be demoted fairly soon………either when Buxton comes back or if the Club promotes Arcia for more stability on defense when needed…….. everyone hopes for Culpepper by the end of July……..I’m good with Kreidler!!

The organization likes stability. Moving Gray would be a real change for the ‘26 Club..,..,,, both Wallner & Lewis were moved down, so I expect a move with Gray.

Jeffers getting moved will help Gray’s potential for staying in the Show. Bottom line is he’s not a very good defensive SS and his streaky bat has really cooled, hence the negative WAR.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

70/75% RH pitching…….. they play the odds with platoons. Gray gets those starts & Kreidler isn’t an “everyday player” ….., at least he hasn’t been. Kreidler has been the choice in CF with Buxton out - until the last few games with the roll of the dice with Keaschall.

I fully expect that the ONLY negative WAR player on the Roster (Gray) will be demoted fairly soon………either when Buxton comes back or if the Club promotes Arcia for more stability on defense when needed…….. everyone hopes for Culpepper by the end of July……..I’m good with Kreidler!!

The organization likes stability. Moving Gray would be a real change for the ‘26 Club..,..,,, both Wallner & Lewis were moved down, so I expect a move with Gray.

Jeffers getting moved will help Gray’s potential for staying in the Show. Bottom line is he’s not a very good defensive SS and his streaky bat has really cooled, hence the negative WAR.

So why would they stop playing the odds if they aren't calling up Culpepper when he is healthy.  Neither Gray or Kriedler are everyday players, so why not go with the defense.  Again I see nothing that says Gray will be demoted and there is no reason for them to keep him up here..  Calling up Arcia unless there is an injury is just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.  He has nothing to offer anymore and 29 other teams agreed in June when he was available.

I still suspect that it will be Kreidler that goes down before Gray, especially now that they have Keaschall to cover CF when needed.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

I hope it's not Arcia, he has no business on a contending team.  He has nothing left to offer at the the major leagues except for the 5th or 6th option as an injury replacement.  No one claimed him when he was available in June.

Culpepper needs to be up here when healthy and Kreidler can be the utilty.  My guess for the extra player would be Fedko or someone similar to be a pinch runner and defensive replacement. 

Fedko may never play another game at Target Field……with any team.

If they want to “compete”, they need to ride Kreidler at SS. Keaschall appears to be the Utility guy & Clemens/Lewis seem to have locked up the right side of the infield for 90+% of the remainder of the year. Lee isn’t missing more than 3/4 of the last 65 games.

In ‘25 Bell had 4,5,4,3,4,2 HR’s over the 6 month season. His RBI & hits track the same. The drop-off in September is because he played in 12 games. 6 months of games played in ‘25 ……..27, 26, 25, 26, 24, 12.

[Mike Sixel]

Gray and three catchers.... They have two guys in the bench that never play. You have to move on from Gray. Lee can be the emergency shortstop. 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Fedko may never play another game at Target Field……with any team.

If they want to “compete”, they need to ride Kreidler at SS. Keaschall appears to be the Utility guy & Clemens/Lewis seem to have locked up the right side of the infield for 90+% of the remainder of the year. Lee isn’t missing more than 3/4 of the last 65 games.

In ‘25 Bell had 4,5,4,3,4,2 HR’s over the 6 month season. His RBI & hits track the same. The drop-off in September is because he played in 12 games. 6 months of games played in ‘25 ……..27, 26, 25, 26, 24, 12.

Keaschall will be the RF when Buxton is back, not utility unless they call up Jenkins.  My comment was about when the rosters expand, I was using Fedko's role as an example of the position player they would call up, it would be that role. They still have to be on the 40 man roster and as of today it would probably be Fedko, but a lot can change between now and then.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gray and three catchers.... They have two guys in the bench that never play. You have to move on from Gray. Lee can be the emergency shortstop. 

Agree but Gray does play, he plays more than Kreidler.  We need to find the pictures he has on someone and take them away.

[stringer bell]

34 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

So why would they stop playing the odds if they aren't calling up Culpepper when he is healthy.  Neither Gray or Kriedler are everyday players, so why not go with the defense.  Again I see nothing that says Gray will be demoted and there is no reason for them to keep him up here..  Calling up Arcia unless there is an injury is just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.  He has nothing to offer anymore and 29 other teams agreed in June when he was available.

I still suspect that it will be Kreidler that goes down before Gray, especially now that they have Keaschall to cover CF when needed.

Since the St. Louis series where the Twins started winning series, Gray has started 14 games at short and Kreidler 12 (Arcia 1). Kreidler has also started a half dozen games in center, but with Keaschall and Roden both available along with Martin and Larnach, Kreidler should no longer be needed that much in center field. Kreidler started this month-long stretch hitting well, but has cooled considerably. Gray has not hit well for the last month or really since a hot start at the beginning of the season. Managers like to use all their players if they can find a role for them. Gray's only role with the current configuration of players and positions is to play shortstop and he's not really suited to that. If Kreidler hits roughly equivalent to Gray, he should be starting at least 75% of the time without another roster move.

I will add that Gray has looked better at short the last week or so after a really brutal run prior to that, but like Brooks Lee, the real problem isn't screwing up balls he can get to, it is that he doesn't have major league shortstop range (11th percentile range and 23rd percentile sprint speed). 

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Agree but Gray does play, he plays more than Kreidler.  We need to find the pictures he has on someone and take them away.

In the last six weeks (since 6/1) Gray has played in 28 games with 21 starts. Kreidler has played in 33 games with 22 starts. Gray has gotten more playing time than I think he merits, but Kreidler is playing more despite being 3-28 this month so far.

The sample size for these guys is still pretty small. I don't think Kreidler is trusted to be even an adequate hitter while I suspect the Twins think that Gray has potential to do much better. 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

In the last six weeks (since 6/1) Gray has played in 28 games with 21 starts. Kreidler has played in 33 games with 22 starts. Gray has gotten more playing time than I think he merits, but Kreidler is playing more despite being 3-28 this month so far.

The sample size for these guys is still pretty small. I don't think Kreidler is trusted to be even an adequate hitter while I suspect the Twins think that Gray has potential to do much better. 

Defense should be the defining criteria on who should be playing between those two.  Neither one is going to hit, so if they are going to emphasize defense it should be Kriedler.  Otherwise why make all the other moves they made, it doesn't help with their credibility as decision makers.

[Vanimal46]

Now that Keaschall temporarily solved the problem of part time CF, Kreidler can now focus on SS. He looks the part at that spot, so keep him there as long as he continues to prove himself at the plate. That leaves Gray irrelevant when/if Culpepper is called up. Kreidler can keep the starting job as long as he can, and leave Culpepper to fill in at SS/3B/2B on a near daily basis.  

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Now that Keaschall temporarily solved the problem of part time CF, Kreidler can now focus on SS. He looks the part at that spot, so keep him there as long as he continues to prove himself at the plate. That leaves Gray irrelevant when/if Culpepper is called up. Kreidler can keep the starting job as long as he can, and leave Culpepper to fill in at SS/3B/2B on a near daily basis.  

I'd probably have Kriedler fill in around the horn, so Culpeper can concentrate on one position and hitting. He's a rookie. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd probably have Kriedler fill in around the horn, so Culpeper can concentrate on one position and hitting. He's a rookie. 

Could be and wouldn't be opposed. I envision a 60/40 split up to a 70/30 split in starts at SS between Kreidler/Culpepper whenever he's called up.