As Connor Prielipp Should Be Slowing Down, He Looked His Strongest

[Nate Palmer]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Connor Prielipp put together the best outing of his young career Sunday, as he faced off against the Colorado Rockies to secure the Twins a series victory. In the win, Prielipp went 6 innings, allowed 6 hits and 2 earned runs, but the real fun came in the lefty's 10 strikeouts and 0 walks. Just as Prielipp approaches career marks in usage and we should usually be looking for signs of slowing down and breaking down, the rookie looked his strongest yet. 

Over 93 pitches, we saw the pinnacle of the morphing of his pitch mix that has taken place since his debut. In his first outing against the New York Mets, the Twins starter relied very heavily on his slider, throwing it 42 times (51%). He also mixed in his four-seam fastball 21 times (26%), changeup 13 times (16%), and curveball 5 times (6%). 

images via Statcast

That debut was very good results-wise, but even early on, we saw the first glimpse of a pitch that was the star on Sunday: Prielipp’s curve. On Sunday, Prielipp employed three pitches almost equally, with his slider thrown 25 times (27%), four-seam fastball 25 times (27%), and the curveball 24 times (26%). The evolution to increased curveball usage culminated in impressive whiff numbers in this latest start. 

In total, Prielipp generated 20 whiffs against the Rockies lineup. Of those, eight came on curveballs. That pitch secured half of Prielipp’s strikeouts on the day. The always-dominant slider was the only other pitch to account for multiple put-aways on the day. 

On top of those incredible results, Prielipp also saw his spin rate climb well above his year-long averages. His slider was up to 2,961 RPM (seasonal average: 2,878); the fastball was up to 2,290 (average: 2,265); and the curve up to 3,270 (3,199). At any moment, the Twins may have to back off on Prielipp’s usage as he goes past his career marks, but he has done everything he can to prove he is only stronger and more effective than he was at his debut. All the little indicators one normally checks to find signs of wearing down and failing remain encouraging, and the results are only getting better.

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[Fatbat]

He’s finally healthy. Keep him healthy and ride that bull. He is so much fun to watch pitch!!

[tony&rodney]

No reason that Prielipp cannot continue to pitch, even if he gets extra time between starts. The old adage - listen to the body.

[hitterscount]

Cannot lump all these guys in the same category and handle with kid gloves.... be smart, skip a start here and there, but let him finish the season to build up to no restrictions next season. 

[Linus]

His pitch mix was really good. The Rockies hitters had no idea what pitch was coming next. 

[jmlease1]

There isn't actually any good research that shows a substantial increase in workload season over season causes injury; that was just some Bee Ess that Tom Verducci tried to sell because he half-assed some "analysis" after seeing a couple of pitchers break down and tried to make a name for himself with his fake 20% rule.

They should monitor Prielipp closely, be careful on his high stress innings and overall pitch counts, and the plan of finding him extra days off seems wise...but there's no real reason if he's feeling good that they have to shut him down early this year. Yes, it will be a significant leap if he goes from 82 2/3 innings in 2025 to 120-140 innings in 2026...but he's on that path because he's healthy.

And we'll all feel better about his rotation prospects for 2027 if he pitches a full season in 2026 as a starter and actually throws over 100 MLB innings...

He's always had tons of arm talent; the issue was health. Seems to be healthy. Let's roll.

[IndianaTwin]

If the desire is to slip in a few extra days in Prielipp's schedule from time to time, with off days on Thursday and next Monday, they could consider skipping him to bring Ryan back on Sunday.

RECENT -- last Wednesday: Ryan
Thursday: Off
Friday: Bradley
Saturday: Paredes
Sunday: Prielipp
Monday: Matthews

----------------------------------------
TONIGHT -- Tuesday: Ryan (5 days off)
Wednesday: Bradley (4)
   Thursday: Off
Friday: Ober/Paredes (IL/5)
Saturday: Matthews (4)
Sunday: Ryan (4)
   Monday: Off
Tuesday: Bradley (5)
Wednesday: Prielipp (9)
Thursday: Ober/Paredes (5)
Friday: Matthews (5)
Saturday: Ryan (5)
Sunday: Bradley (4)

And then they could pretty much jump in wherever they want after the All-Star Break, since everyone has at least four days. Even if they started with Prielipp (and I doubt they would), he'd have eight days rest.

This approach also allows Ryan to pitch on Saturday heading into the break rather than Sunday, so he'd actually get to pitch his well-deserved inning in the ASG.

[IndianaTwin]

Addendum to the previous: I like that rotation. Then add Lopez (and Abel?) and that's a top tier rotation for '27. Please don't trade Ryan (unless it's for something like seven established MLB relievers 🤣).

[Linus]

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There isn't actually any good research that shows a substantial increase in workload season over season causes injury; that was just some Bee Ess that Tom Verducci tried to sell because he half-assed some "analysis" after seeing a couple of pitchers break down and tried to make a name for himself with his fake 20% rule.

They should monitor Prielipp closely, be careful on his high stress innings and overall pitch counts, and the plan of finding him extra days off seems wise...but there's no real reason if he's feeling good that they have to shut him down early this year. Yes, it will be a significant leap if he goes from 82 2/3 innings in 2025 to 120-140 innings in 2026...but he's on that path because he's healthy.

And we'll all feel better about his rotation prospects for 2027 if he pitches a full season in 2026 as a starter and actually throws over 100 MLB innings...

He's always had tons of arm talent; the issue was health. Seems to be healthy. Let's roll.

I agree with this. They have so much data on each pitcher they should be able to know when substantial fatigue is setting in and act accordingly. 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Addendum to the previous: I like that rotation. Then add Lopez (and Abel?) and that's a top tier rotation for '27. Please don't trade Ryan (unless it's for something like seven established MLB relievers 🤣).

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, Rojas, Abel. Possibly Lagrange from the Yankees. I think they can trade Ober at the deadline, especially if it is for Double-A pitching.

[GNess]

The rotation has been a bright spot for the Twins and a key factor in that they remain in contention for the division and/or a WC berth. An improving, consistent Prielipp further strengthens the starting group.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, Rojas, Abel. Possibly Lagrange from the Yankees. I think they can trade Ober at the deadline, especially if it is for Double-A pitching.

If the Twins can find a taker for Ober. 

[Wedman13]

Thanks for this article.  I'll admit as an old guy the advanced metrics get lost on me most times.  But I'm trying :)   I just see and uber-talented lefty with a knockout slider, a real ball player, and  I could watch it all day long 

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins can find a taker for Ober. 

Do not disagree.....but In a super odd way.... I actually could see trusting Ober if we have a one or done game at the end of this season.  He may throw 85 but does seem to have something in him 

[AceWrigley]

4 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Thanks for this article.  I'll admit as an old guy the advanced metrics get lost on me most times.  But I'm trying :)   I just see and uber-talented lefty with a knockout slider, a real ball player, and  I could watch it all day long 

Years ago a young left-handed starter had a good slider that he developed into an incredible weapon that gave hitters fits even if they knew it was coming. He had a pretty good career. His name is Steve Carlton.

[DocBauer]

So from all the games I've watched, and all the Box Scores I've poured over, I have 2 reactions.

1] STOP looking at the ERA of Prielipp AND Matthews. Yes, I understand the OP is about Prielipp, but I think that is limited thinking.

2] START looking more closely at game by game performances.

RIGHT NOW is about the time we expected Prielipp to debut. Instead, he's been up for about 2 months now. The HITS are higher than you'd like, so are the BB. But his K's are solid and he's FLASHED all the potential you'd want to see from him as a rookie so far.

Meanwhile, Matthews has really only had 2 poor/mediocre starts so far. Similar to Prielipp's last start, he probably had his best game of the season thus far. Of his 9 games started so far, I believe he's provided a "quality start" in 7 of them.

Again, don't just focus on ERA. INSTEAD, just look closer at the development of these 2 arms. ONE, Prielipp,  has debuted way before expected and has been solid, and has flashed. TWO, Matthews is starting to become the quality SP we've been waiting for.

Silver lining here, we're seeing maturation of a pair of important arms for this team going forward.

Now, there is a concern about IP for Prielipp, which I get. But what Shelton and staff have been doing is NOT being worried about how many pitches Prielipp is throwing, but instead pushing his starts back a day or two to allow more recovery time. I think that's really smart! They're slowly building up the number of pitches, but also allowing that in his TOTAL career thus far, he hasn't been used to starting ever 5 days. I think it's a great balance of development while still giving his arm "rest time" as he builds up.

CRAZY, but Prielipp's BRAND NEW curveball is already about as good as his slider. Just keep him on his current path.

Matthews has either figured out his STUFF actually plays and shouldn't be afraid to throw stikes, or he's finally got the confidence/command to control the edges better, or he's got better comand/control of his breathing stuff. I really don't know. But he's suddenly turned a corner, and that's all I care about.

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Do not disagree.....but In a super odd way.... I actually could see trusting Ober if we have a one or done game at the end of this season.  He may throw 85 but does seem to have something in him 

Been watching to too much Provus LOL