First SDI Rankings Highlight Minnesota's Defensive Strengths and Weaknesses

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

93.1 Innings Pitched - 7 CHANCES. 

How do you weight 7 chances? How do you weight one chance every 13.1 innings pitched? How many of those chances are considered to be routine. 

What happens to his numbers if he gets an assist or put out on play in a low percentage zone on his 8th chance?

Taj Bradley also has 7 chances over his 76.2 innings pitch.

How many of those 7 chances are routine? 

Did one singular play from each cause the difference in .06 and -.07? If it did... how much should any of us pay attention to the small sample data? 

What is the significance of .6 and -.7 

How does 7 chances on the mound every 13.1 innings compare to 216 chances for Brooks Lee at SS and 3B over 655.1 innings? Or one chance every 3 innings. How many of those plays at SS or 3B are considered routine? 

 

 

 

Concise argument for why D stats are mostly horse$#!+. 

Did you intend this that way?

[DJL44]

One way to keep Jackson on the roster until the deadline is to drop down to 12 pitchers. The 13th pitcher has been mostly terrible this season. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Yes, he did get to watch from the bench as his teammates won him a ring - no hits in 6 ABs that postseason.  He got to play in the World Series (in a losing effort) the year before with the Dodgers as well, where he went 2-16 in their postseason run.  So 2-22 in two full postseasons.  Don't know what they woulda done without him.  Point is, he was very far from the irreplaceable beating heart of a roster at that point in his career

He still gets to keep that ring.

[LA Vikes Fan]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Not a bad idea. I would have Keaschall play 2B when there is a LH starter and LF when there is a RH starting pitcher. I would use Roden instead of Fedko in the meantime as well. Roden hit LHP in AAA almost as well as Fedko and he’s crushing RHP.

Interesting twist, but it puts Laranch on the bench. Would probably have to wait until Larnach is traded (if he is) or Bell is gone and Laranch can be the DH. 

[Andy MacPhail]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Hindsight looks pretty favorably on trading Dozier. He wasn't good enough to be a starter the rest of his career.

When you trade away a player who has a lot of heart for the team, it's almost always a lose/ lose proposition. Both Dozier & Polanco played hurt, to their detriment. They should have been better managed.

[Riverbrian]

44 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Concise argument for why D stats are mostly horse$#!+. 

Did you intend this that way?

Yeah... That was what it says in-between lines. 

Don't get me wrong... There is some value in defensive metrics but everybody needs to understand how the stat is compiled, the frequency of difference making plays that create the number, the separation between those deemed plus and those deemed negative defensive performers and therefore try to understand what that separation actually means. How many chances a player gets per game. How many of those chances are routine and how many are incrementally valued non-routine plays and how those small percentage plays are then weighted.

Then they need to understand how range ratings are folded into stats like WAR and then re-weighted with offensive stats to the point that Max Kepler is a plus WAR player while performing fairly consistently below average at the plate. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Interesting twist, but it puts Laranch on the bench. Would probably have to wait until Larnach is traded (if he is) or Bell is gone and Laranch can be the DH. 

Larnach can play some RF. Everyone can take a day off now and again. Bell can pinch hit more often.

[JADBP]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

.....The changes from the Falvey dream of a DH at every position has been challenging to change but it is going to happen. 

Hopefully we can erase this inane falvey madness from our memories.  He not only wanted a DH at every position, he wanted every position to play every position.  WTF

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

I’m interested in people’s thoughts on why Joe Ryan ranks so poorly. He seems athletic enough. Does his follow through make it tricky to field balls? Does he just not care about balls and let the fielders behind him take care of it?

Even though the sample size is small this year, if I read correctly, his career sample also ranks him low. He may just not be a good fielder. Athleticism doesn't always translate to being a good fielder - see Keaschall.

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

I’m interested in people’s thoughts on why Joe Ryan ranks so poorly. He seems athletic enough. Does his follow through make it tricky to field balls? Does he just not care about balls and let the fielders behind him take care of it?

Even though the sample size is small this year, if I read correctly, his career sample also ranks him low. He may just not be a good fielder. Athleticism doesn't always translate to being a good fielder - see Keaschall.

[Linus]

I just think defense is so much harder to measure than hitting or pitching. There are so many subtle things that happen when the ball is in play that are hard to quantify. Recently Buck got thrown out at third on a really close play. I actually think he was safe and for the sake of argument let’s say he was. The cutoff man on the play was nowhere near the proper spot to accept the throw from right/center field. Had he been ruled safe it would have gone down as Buck taking an extra base on the outfielder when it was the cut off man that screwed up. Proper cut position and Buck would have been out by 3 feet. Another example: ball hit in the RF corner and the batter tries for a double. The throw to second was pretty good but Keaschall set up behind the base so the extra length the ball had to travel and the extra time it took for Keaschall to lunge forward to tag the runner made him safe. That will be another demerit to the outfielder when it was Keaschall bad positioning that allowed the runner to be safe. How about infielders that have a bad pivot on the double play? Recent game where the hitter hit a high bouncer that Brooks waited back on instead of taking 1-2 steps in to get the ball to Keaschall who reaches out to get the ball then bring it back to cock his arm and unleash a rainbow to first. Announcers brush it off as too slowly hit when in fact multiple mistakes were made trying to turn two. Runner was safe by a quarter step and should have been out of the inning. Who gets what grade on that play?

[LA Vikes Fan]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Larnach can play some RF. Everyone can take a day off now and again. Bell can pinch hit more often.

Ok, I see that. Basically make the OF a 5 man group between Buxton, Martin, Roden, Keaschall, and Larnach with Roden the backup CF. Play Keach 1-2 days a week at 2B, Clemens 5 days a week between 2B, 1B, DH, and 3B, and Gray becomes the 13th guy who doesn't play much. 

[DataNerd]

6 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

I’m interested in people’s thoughts on why Joe Ryan ranks so poorly. He seems athletic enough. Does his follow through make it tricky to field balls? Does he just not care about balls and let the fielders behind him take care of it?

Pitching sample size is tiny, and all defensive metrics have flaws that require large samples to smooth out.  I'd be curious to see if there is any correlation between pitcher SDI year/year, wouldn't be surprised if it is absolutely tiny.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Ok, I see that. Basically make the OF a 5 man group between Buxton, Martin, Roden, Keaschall, and Larnach with Roden the backup CF. Play Keach 1-2 days a week at 2B, Clemens 5 days a week between 2B, 1B, DH, and 3B, and Gray becomes the 13th guy who doesn't play much. 

Yes, and there are pinch hit opportunities for the bench nearly every game.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Hey, we may be on to something. Tonight's lineup has Clemens at 2B and Keaschall in RF. It also has Gray at SS but I'll let that moment of lunacy slide. Larnach is in LF with Martin on the bench. Fedko is getting coffee for the rest of the guys while waiting for his demotion back to AAA.  

[Linus]

11 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Hey, we may be on to something. Tonight's lineup has Clemens at 2B and Keaschall in RF. It also has Gray at SS but I'll let that moment of lunacy slide. Larnach is in LF with Martin on the bench. Fedko is getting coffee for the rest of the guys while waiting for his demotion back to AAA.  

Why do they not play Larnach in RF?  I don’t get it. 

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Getting back to the current club, these numbers match the eye test and illustrate the real conundrum we have with Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall. I want to play them every day so we can see if their bats play at the MLB level but where? First, hitting is more important than fielding for every position except SS, C and maybe CF. You can find good fielders, Its MUCH harder to find quality hitters. 

First, I like the idea of playing Lewis at 1B and Lee and 3B. They both seem to be getting better and could/should be at least average or slightly at those spots. On a team bereft of middle of the order bats, you have to find a place for guys who can hit 20 plus HRs and drive in runs. The signs are there for both, so we have to find out if they can be that guy consistently. 

I really like the idea of moving Clemens to every day 2B if he can play there. Whither Keaschall? Well, we need a RH OF badly, Fedko ain't the guy, and GG is 22 and still hasn't mastered AAA.  Maybe we should try Keasch in a 4 OF rotation with Buxton, Larnach, and Martin. Keasch can play 2B once a week when Clemens plays CF (unless Keaschall could play CF). This means more ABs for Clemens and Martin, less for Keasch which I don't love, but I think would improve the D.  Also give us a place to play Culppeper when he's ready because he's not a great fielding SS for AAA, which means he will be even a less great fielding SS in MLB. Maybe 2B is his place to break in.  

SS is easy to fix on defense with Kreidler, but will he hit? So far, so good but his track record is abysmal. Still, he's only 28 and can hold down SS until Houston is ready in 2028 or so. 

Here's the basic lineup I would run with until the deadline:

C- Caratini, Jackson, Jeffers briefly until he's traded (has to happen)

IF - Lews (1B), Clemens (2B), Kriedler (SS), Lee (3B), Gray (UTL) 

OF - Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Keaschall

DH - Bell

Fedko stays until Jeffers comes back and then goes down. Culpepper can come up but only if we dump Gray. We will have to carry 3 catchers when Jeffers comes back because Jackson is out of options. He won't last 30 seconds on the waiver wire - teams are depurate for catching. Guys like Sandy Leon, Joey Bart, Austin Hedges, Aramis Garcia, and Kelbert Ruiz are on MLB rosters or have been in the last month. All of them can't hit water if they fell out of a boat and most of them are mediocre or even worse on D. Jackson can play the position and is hitting. No way he can be DFA'd and kept.  

You just have Shelty's ear; it's just what we have lined up for tonight. Keaschall in RF.. 

Let me be the last to ask, shall we re-sign Sim?

[LA Vikes Fan]

I started a blog on that. I'm in, let's resign SWR and put him in the BP.  We can create space by Iling/waiving/retiring Taylor Rogers. Great guy, franchise Icon, but Rogers is done. 

SWR was a decent pitcher as recently as last season. The way things are going we are going to need starters later this year and we already need BP help. Let's grab him, put him in the BP and see if we can figure out and fix what's wrong. It's worth a shot.