Twins Defense

[stringer bell]

I've spent a fair amount of time looking at ratings provided by The Fielding Bible. The site is free and both teams and individuals can't be monitored. Rankings move around--the Twins at one point were ranked in the low 20s overall and only a negative six runs about three weeks ago. Currently, they are next to last with a ledger is -25 defensive runs saved, ahead only of the Phillies. 

The site ranks by position and the Twins are currently last at two positions--shortstop -14 runs and pitchers -9 runs. That accounts for all but two of their -25 runs differential. Brooks Lee had -7 DRS in 45 games, while the combination of Arcia, Kreidler, and particularly Gray have accounted for the other seven runs. Gray is -5 in only 114 innings, so I would say that he is part of the problem. That the pitchers are -9 as a group is somewhat of a surprise and maybe is something to criticize the coaching staff about. The Twins were brutal last year in pitching defense and it seems they are even worse this year.

Other defensive soft spots are second base and right field. Luke Keaschall has been the primary second baseman and his defensive runs saved number has sunk to -6. Matt Wallner and his -8 DRS was sent to the minors. Maybe Keaschall needs a reset in St. Paul as well, if not to improve his second base defense, maybe to work on a new position.

There aren't a lot of bright spots among the players who have suited up for the Twins this year, but there are a couple. Austin Martin is ranked highly at either corner outfield spot. He is +2 DRS in left field and +4 DRS in right field. In a small sample, he's still well below average in center, but overall he's the Twins top defender at +5 defensive runs saved. Kody Clemens is among the top defenders at first base (+4 DRS) and is okay at second base and in the outfield. Surprisingly Josh Bell comes in at +1 in limited play at first base. 

There has been much discussion about the defense of Royce Lewis and also Brooks Lee. In 30 games, Lewis was -1 at third base and in his return has been neither plus or minus at first and second base. As noted, Lee was the worst defensive shortstop as measured by DRS and he's been -1 in his 20 games at third base. I will note that Lee had three quick errors in his first week at third and has stabilized since then. 20 games is still a really small sample size.

Improving the soft spots is the way out of defensive struggles. As I indicated earlier, I think the coaching staff needs to work on pitcher fielding in a different or more focused way. The Twins appear to have repaired the soft spot in right field by changing personnel and it is possible the same thing will be done in the infield. This is one more chip in the pile to boost the promotion of Kaelen Culpepper. He could hardly be worse defensively than the guys who have stood between the second and third baseman and he might be substantially better. To be an average defensive team so far this year, the Twins would have needed only average defense from their pitchers and shortstops. If they add an above average defensive shortstop, team defense would rank as one of their lesser problems. 

That's the way I see this particular issue. I would hope that others weigh in with their opinions.

 

[Linus]

Thanks for the interesting post. Full disclosure: I’m a bit of a fielding metric skeptic however these numbers pretty much match the eye test. I consider Martin more average but he has improved for sure. Bell at +1 is a head scratcher as he is a genuinely bad fielder. A real SS would help immensely but realistically they could improve everywhere except CF and when Clemens plays first. Of course the real challenge is finding players that can hit and field. 

[stringer bell]

IMHO, fielding metrics are like election polls—if enough agree (enough data points align) it is probably accurate.

There are outlers for sure. Early this year, Liis Arraez was on top of the heap at sscond base. He’s now in the middle, still better than expected, but more in line with what I have seen.

 

[tony&rodney]

I'm old. Haven't coached or scouted for a decade and haven't played for two decades. Still the eye test has a minimal piece of value, although I'm always willing to be taught/corrected and shown evidence that my old eyes are too weak.

The defense needs help. It cannot roll in all at once and we fans must be at least a wee bit patient. Where are the weaknesses? P, C, 2B, SS, LF, and RF. CF and 3B are not that good. We should acknowledge that moving Brooks Lee to third base was a fair move and I do think he is about average and may improve. When Kody Clemens plays first base it is helpful for the pitchers. Trevor Larnach is massively improved from previous seasons but still not an outfielder unless he mashes on a consistent basis. Austin Martin has been ok but the bat has worms lately. Buxton is decent but not anywhere near his former self in centerfield. The mental errors have been reduced this season which is a start. I believe the players are working hard. A few are just short on talent.

In time, with some good health and luck, Twins fans could see some new faces who will have a chance to raise the bar on batted balls. Hopefully this occurs by July and August to begin the transition to a better team.

[strumdatjag]

At some point, SS will improve with Kaelen Culpepper and even more with Marek Houston.   Maybe Walker Jenkins (or another young CF) can thrive in Center, allowing Buxton to be a plus defender at one of the corners.   
Otherwise, defense looks like a problem for more than just 2026 

[Linus]

It’s also tough to quantify in a vacuum. You can live with a slightly below average defender if they can really hit. Likewise if combined slightly below average defense with a mediocre bat you have a problem. A problem the Twins face all over the diamond. 

[stringer bell]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm old. Haven't coached or scouted for a decade and haven't played for two decades. Still the eye test has a minimal piece of value, although I'm always willing to be taught/corrected and shown evidence that my old eyes are too weak.

The defense needs help. It cannot roll in all at once and we fans must be at least a wee bit patient. Where are the weaknesses? P, C, 2B, SS, LF, and RF. CF and 3B are not that good. We should acknowledge that moving Brooks Lee to third base was a fair move and I do think he is about average and may improve. When Kody Clemens plays first base it is helpful for the pitchers. Trevor Larnach is massively improved from previous seasons but still not an outfielder unless he mashes on a consistent basis. Austin Martin has been ok but the bat has worms lately. Buxton is decent but not anywhere near his former self in centerfield. The mental errors have been reduced this season which is a start. I believe the players are working hard. A few are just short on talent.

In time, with some good health and luck, Twins fans could see some new faces who will have a chance to raise the bar on batted balls. Hopefully this occurs by July and August to begin the transition to a better team.

I didn't write about it, but the Twins third best defensive position at this time is catcher. Jeffers is +1, Caratini at 0 and Jackson -1. The Fielding Bible includes a column for strike zone runs saved, which would seem to be ABS usage, and that pushes Jeffers into positive territory. I think catcher throwing isn't given enough credit and Jeffers and particularly Caratini are weak there. Also, regarding Jackson, he's been charged for two errors on Catcher Interference in a really small sample, that probably is his -1 run saved right there and those Catcher Interference calls are pretty rare.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I didn't write about it, but the Twins third best defensive position at this time is catcher. Jeffers is +1, Caratini at 0 and Jackson -1. The Fielding Bible includes a column for strike zone runs saved, which would seem to be ABS usage, and that pushes Jeffers into positive territory. I think catcher throwing isn't given enough credit and Jeffers and particularly Caratini are weak there. Also, regarding Jackson, he's been charged for two errors on Catcher Interference in a really small sample, that probably is his -1 run saved right there and those Catcher Interference calls are pretty rare.

I have not been upset with the catching very often. The middle infield specifically and corner outfielders most of the time are a problem. Glad I don't have to pitch with those guys behind me.