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Long ago, pacing in front of a green, rectangular chalkboard, author Kurt Vonnegut traveled around the country, lecturing audiences on the shape of a story. In his lectures, Vonnegut would profess that stories have “very simple shapes; ones that computers can understand.” He would draw out a “GI axis” (”G” meaning good fortune; I meaning “Ill fortune”). He would then draw out the “BE axis.” Naturally, “B” stood for beginning and “E” for end.
The first type of story is titled “Man in a Hole.” It needn’t be about a man nor a hole, but somebody gets into trouble and then gets out of it. Another popular story shape was “Boy Meets Girl.” Mind you, it needn’t be about a boy or a girl. Somebody, on a day like any other day, comes across something wonderful. It is their lucky day! Then **** hits the fan. But somehow, someway, they get their life together again.
Finally, the most popular story begins closer to the “I” on the GI axis: Vonnegut talks about a young girl whose mother dies. Her father then immediately remarries to a terrible battleaxe with two mean daughters. There’s a party at the palace one night. She doesn’t get to go. Instead, she is forced to help her sisters get ready for it. But she does not let that bother her. She is a stout-hearted little girl with maximum grief due to the death of her mother. Suddenly, a fairy godmother gets her dressed; she goes to the party; and a prince falls in love with her. The clock strikes 12; she loses everything; the shoe fits, and she becomes off-scale happy for eternity. Rags to riches—a soaring (though undulating) climb from "I" to "G" as we progress from "B" to "E".
Vonnegut notes the infinite despair of Franz Kafka’s “The Metamorphosis,” before noting that the rise and fall of these stories is artificial—pretending we know more about life than we do. Delving into “Hamlet.” Vonnegut describes the William Shakespeare classic, continually remarking that the events that occur in the story are neither good nor bad—they happen. We are so seldom told the truth in stories, but in “Hamlet,” Shakespeare tells us: we don’t know enough about life to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, and we respond to that.
We pretend to know what the good news is and what the bad news is all the time. All we really do is echo the feelings of those around us. This sentiment is especially true when it comes to MLB’s trade deadline. Remember when the Twins front office traded for Tyler Mahle, Jorge López, and Michael Fulmer before the 2022 deadline? Immediately, those who followed the club deemed them deadline winners, acquiring a frontline starting pitcher and two high-leverage relievers. Less than two months later, they were deadline losers, with Mahle on the IL with a shoulder injury, Lòpez imploding in nearly every appearance, and Fulmer’s addition quickly becoming irrelevant as the club fell out of playoff contention.
Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were set to become stars with the Cincinnati Reds, making that deadline even more excruciating a misstep. Then, they didn’t. Yennier Cano was going to be one of the best late-innings relievers, with Cade Povich looking like a soon-to-be number two starter in Baltimore’s formidable starting rotation. Then, they didn’t. The Twins also should have just kept Sawyer Gipson-Long, who was bound to become a young, cost-controlled fixture in Detroit’s rotation for seasons to come—until he didn’t. We were but echoing the feelings of those around us.
In 2023, the Twins' inactivity at the deadline was the nail in the coffin of their playoff aspirations—until it wasn’t. Despite not adding a single player at the deadline, Minnesota won the AL Central, ending its 18-game postseason losing streak and winning its first series in 19 years. We pretend to know what the good and bad news is, and we respond to that. The organization buying during this season’s deadline appears to be a good thing. It is a clear, welcome shift from the bleak passivity Minnesota’s ownership and front office has demonstrated since the end of the 2023 postseason.
Still, we don’t know enough about the Twins to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, but we respond to that. The acquisitions of A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer were nice, floor-raising moves. The club could still add what is perceived to be a dramatic, tide-shifting starting pitcher like Reid Detmers or Casey Mize, or a reliever like Luke Weaver or Adrián Morejón. No matter what Minnesota does, it won’t be in the shape of a “Man in the Hole”, a “Boy Meets Girl” story, “Cinderella,” or “The Metamorphosis.” Instead, it will be a flat line like “Hamlet”: a series of transactions in which we don’t know if they will be good or bad.
So, this deadline, I beg you not to echo the feelings of those around you, pretending to know what the good news is and what the bad news is. Instead, I ask you to acknowledge that we don’t know enough about trades to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, and respond to that appropriately. Imagine yourself moving along Vonnegut's chalkboard, and remember that while you're going from "B" to "E" inexorably, whether you're moving toward "G" or "I" at any given time is essentially impossible to know. Later, you can step back and see the whole chalkboard, and then we can all see the shape of the story. For now, we're just flecks of chalk.
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