Spring Temperature Check: Who's Hot and Who's Cold in Twins' Camp? (March 5-8)

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

It’s been an eventful few days of spring baseball for the Twins. They opened the stretch with a dominant 15-0 win over the Yankees on Thursday before dropping a 4-1 decision to the Braves on Friday and a tight 3-2 game to the Orioles on Saturday. Sunday’s matchup with the Phillies provided some late drama, as the Twins walked it off in a 7-6 victory.

The results themselves aren’t the main focus this time of year. Early March is more about individual progress, building innings, and seeing which players are starting to separate themselves as camp moves along.

With that in mind, here’s the latest temperature check from the past few days of Twins spring action.

Who’s Hot? 🔥

Bailey Ober

Ober finally made his spring debut on Friday, and it couldn’t have gone much smoother. The right-hander tossed two scoreless innings without allowing a baserunner, giving the Twins exactly what they were hoping for in his first outing of camp. His fastball averaged around 90 mph, which is right in line with expectations. Ober has never been a power arm, typically working in the low 90s while relying on command and deception to keep hitters off balance. The biggest takeaway here is simply that he’s healthy and back on the mound, and his first appearance of the spring was a clean one.

Brooks Lee

The Twins’ starting shortstop put together a strong weekend at the plate. He went 3-for-6, including a triple and a double, and four of the five balls he put in play were classified as hard contact. For a player who hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype surrounding his prospect status yet, this is an encouraging sign. When Lee is driving the ball with authority like this, it’s a glimpse of the offensive impact the Twins believed he could provide when they drafted him.

Mick Abel

Through three spring starts, Abel continues to look like one of the most dominant pitchers in camp. In his latest outing, he threw four scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and no walks. That now gives him 10 innings this spring without issuing a free pass, to go along with 13 strikeouts. He didn’t rack up quite as many whiffs as he did in his first couple of appearances, but that was largely because Baltimore’s hitters were aggressively swinging early in counts as Abel attacked the zone with fastballs. He still consistently ran his heater up to 98 mph and needed just 41 pitches to get through four innings, 30 of which were strikes. Considering he was facing several Orioles regulars, it was another impressive showing and further evidence that Abel is making a strong case for a spot in the Twins’ rotation.

James Outman

Outman has quietly put together a strong stretch over the past few days. Since Thursday, he’s gone 3-for-7 with a home run and three stolen bases, showing off both his power and athleticism. A couple of his batted balls have come off the bat at 100 mph or harder, highlighting the kind of impact contact he’s capable of when he’s locked in. With several outfielders competing for limited spots on the Opening Day roster, performances like this keep Outman firmly in the mix.

Who’s Not? 🧊

Justin Topa

It’s been a rough spring for Topa, and that continued Sunday when he squandered a Twins lead against Philadelphia. He allowed four runs on three hits and a hit-by-pitch, and the damage came against a Phillies lineup made up mostly of backups rather than regulars. Through his appearances this spring, Topa’s ERA now sits north of 30, which obviously isn’t the kind of line you want to see this late into camp. There’s still time for him to turn things around, but each tough outing makes the battle for a bullpen spot a little more difficult.

Kendry Rojas

After looking electric in his first outing of the spring, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly since for Rojas. On Friday against Atlanta, he was charged with the loss after allowing four earned runs across 2 ⅔ innings. He gave up five hits while striking out three, and while his changeup generated plenty of whiffs, his fastball and cutter caught too much of the plate, and hitters made him pay. The positive takeaway is that his command was solid; he threw 35 of his 50 pitches for strikes and didn’t walk a batter. The issue right now isn’t finding the zone, but rather leaving too many pitches over the heart of it.

Royce Lewis

It wasn’t the strongest weekend at the plate for Lewis, who went 0-for-6 with a pair of strikeouts. Most importantly, he’s healthy and on the field, which remains the top priority at this stage of the spring. Still, the quality of contact wasn’t there in this small sample. None of the balls he put in play left the infield, and only one was hit particularly hard. Both strikeouts also came on three pitches. It’s far too early to read much into a couple of quiet games, but it wasn’t Lewis’ most productive stretch offensively.

It’s still early in camp, and none of these performances lock anyone into or out of a role. Spring training is about adjustments, building rhythm, and getting ready for the long season ahead. But as the innings start to pile up, the early trends are beginning to come into focus.

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[Patzky]

He don't do slumps.. we'll be ok. 😉

 

I appreciate these Moment in time reports for those of us who don't get to every box score. The fact that two starters had positive impact this weekend (and SWR looked better too, finally) and Joe Ryan will be on the mound this week gives hope. The Buxton HBP heard round the world still gives me pause..

[USAFChief]

Rojas: "...his fastball and cutter caught too much of the plate, and hitters made him pay. The positive takeaway is that his command was solid; he threw 35 of his 50 pitches for strikes..."

 

Sounds to me like command was an issue. 

I think you're possibly confusing command with control. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I also appreciate these updates since I don't watch or follow the ST games. I have a couple of questions for those who follow this more closely.

1. Does it look like Abel  might break camp as the #5 starter over Matthews? The stats suggest so , do they match they eye test?  

2. Topa sounds bad. Does it look like an injury, so he could open on the 15 or 60 day list? Opening there for Kent or Altavilla?

3. What do we do with Roden, Martin, and Outman all hitting in ST, with Wallner and Larnach scuffling? Any chance of opening the season with the former 3 plus Wallner and Buxton in the OF with Larnach gone or in AAA?

4. Most important question - now that regulars are playing longer, the scores make it look like the team is a little more competitive. Is that accurate or am I just dreaming spring dreams? 

[mikelink45]

I like these updates.  As I have posted before I am not a big believer in ST stats.  Are the opposing pitchers trying out new pitches?  Are they facing the A or B team when they get their hits,  Too many variables but fun none-the-less. 

[LambchoP]

I think you could add Wallner to the cold list. He looks lost at the plate. With so many younger more athletic OF fighting for playing time, this might be a last chance to stick year for Wallner and Larnach. With Roden, Outman, Martin, E Rod, Jenkins and Gonzalez all eventually needing playing time, I think time is running out for those two guys. Especially since they should be dh only at this point.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Rojas: "...his fastball and cutter caught too much of the plate, and hitters made him pay. The positive takeaway is that his command was solid; he threw 35 of his 50 pitches for strikes..."

 

Sounds to me like command was an issue. 

I think you're possibly confusing command with control. 

I'm watching. Zebby fail at both today .

[Blyleven2011]

1 start and Ober is on the hot list , not much pitching is hot i guess ...

Topa for sure is off kiltered  ...

So who is winning so far on the balls and strike challenge calls , players or umpires ...

That is something new to baseball this year , now is the time for an article on how it is working ...

 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

8 hours ago, Patzky said:

I'm watching. Zebby fail at both today .

Remember when Zebby first got called up, and he would never throw anything out of the zone, and now he can't throw anything in the zone. 

[DocBauer]

Happy to see Ober healthy and throwing, and pain free. The negative is, reportedly, his velocity dipped in his 2nd inning. He NEEDS to SIT 91-92 and touch 93 once in a while. He's a damn good pitcher if he does that. For HIM, it's still early in ST. He's probably got 3 more games to stretch out, cut it loose, and get his mechanics right. He does that, no worries.

Lee, reportedly, has changed his body. The weight/muscle distribution has changed. Supposedly, he looks quicker. I sure hope that's true, in addition to letting go of his instinct to step forward FIRST, something he said he recognized and was working on. He'll never be a great SS, but he can still get better. (He's still destined for 3B/2B or super utility). But he can only physically get so much better as a SS. What he CAN do is become the HITTER everyone thought he could be when drafted and listed as a top prospect. He actually might have a little more HR power than thought originally. But the "Miranda disease" of weak chasing contact has to be harnessed. Even with poor speed, he should have the ability to lace strong line drives for hits and 30 Dbls consistently with a DECENT AVG and acceptable OB%. He doesn't have to crank 20 HR...though I'm starting to believe he might have the potential to do so...but hitting .270 with a .320 OB with 30 Dbls and TEENS in HR makes him a fixture SOMEWHERE in the future, but really helps out AVERAGE defense at SS until someone replaces him there.

Matthews has looked good until the other day. But it's only 1 game, and who knows what he was working on? Bradley has looked good. ABEL has looked DYNAMITE so far. BUT the question in ST is always, what lineup were you facing to do so well? And when you didn't throw so well, what were you working on? But Abel has really looked good. WHOEVER goes to St Paul as the #6 SP, it's not really a demotion. It's just a wait and see before you come up, because you're going to be needed, and you're going to spend a lot of the season with the parent club.

On the downside;

Topa has looked as bad as an pitcher I can remember in recent history. Is he working on something? Is he running in to bad luck? A combination? Only the Twins staff knows. His contract is small enough to just get rid of him. His experience says he still might make the final roster. A couple non roster arms have been much better so far. I think he's in danger of losing his spot.

Rojas was never going to make the roster no matter what he did. He's got tremendous stuff and might rival Prielipp for potential. Like Prielipp, he's still not only learning how to pitch, he's also missed time in his brief career due to some injuries. BOTH will be in the Saints rotation for 2026, and both should be. But don't be surprised to see one of them in the Twins bullpen the 2nd half of 2026 at some point. A decision might have to be made at some point.

Regarding Lewis, he's healthy and working on a different stance that is more quiet and loads differently than before. I think the new stance is going to pay dividends as he's finally feeling comfortable with the natural changes in his body post surgery and muscle gain. IMO, he just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he's doing and he's going to be fine.

[terrydactyls]

21 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Rojas: "...his fastball and cutter caught too much of the plate, and hitters made him pay. The positive takeaway is that his command was solid; he threw 35 of his 50 pitches for strikes..."

 

Sounds to me like command was an issue. 

I think you're possibly confusing command with control. 

Please explain the difference.  I've never understood and people quite often use them as catch-alls, rather than actually explain the difference. 

[Jeff K]

I attended yesterdays game against Atlanta and in the first inning, the Braves teed off on Zebby's fastball and put up 8 runs; not all against Zebby who was removed with two outs and then returned in the 2nd inning where he was far more effective.  In fairness to Zebby with 2 outs and one run in a fly ball was hit to right field where Larnach appeared to be under the influencer of Jupiter's gravity.  Should have been the 3rd out.  Larnach looked terrible on several other plays as well.  Maybe it's the lack of familiarity with RF, but it was an unprofessional performance.  

Arcia played 2nd base and threw wildly home when there was no chance to get the runner.  Furthermore, he had a ground ball to 3rd that he did not run out.  Keaschall was in left field and with every ball hit to him he looked like a dog circling before...well you know.  He made the catches, but wow.  That's the bad.

Keaschall looked great at the plate with a triple and a ringing double.  Royce looked great at the plate and made an excellent play at 3rd.  He looks ready.  Gabriel Gonzales came in and continued hitting.  

With the exception of Royce Lewis's play at 3rd, the Twins did not resemble a major league team in the field.  I'm just hoping it's because of the bizarre organizational obsession with playing players out of position.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Please explain the difference.  I've never understood and people quite often use them as catch-alls, rather than actually explain the difference. 

I've always understood control to mean the ability to throw strikes, command the ability to throw strikes where you want them. 

A fastball middle middle exhibits control. A fastball on the low outside corner exhibits command.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I've always understood control to mean the ability to throw strikes, command the ability to throw strikes where you want them. 

A fastball middle middle exhibits control. A fastball on the low outside corner exhibits command.

I've understood command to be throwing a pitch where you want to throw it, not necessarily even in the strike zone if a hitter is willing to chase.

[terrydactyls]

If a pitcher exhibits control by throwing a fastball "middle-middle", then what good does control do?  IMHO, if you really have "control",  you can not only throw strikes, but you throw those strikes to places with witch hitters have trouble (which you define as "command").  If the definitions you have provided are the accepted explanations, then I don't want a pitcher who only has control.  Plus, if you possess command (ability to throw strikes where you want them), then you also must have control (ability to throw strikes).  Only one term is necessary.

[DJL44]

I avoid both terms command and control because they are so widely abused to make them useless.

[Linus]

Whatever you want to call it, Zebby is a great example. In the minors he walked nobody because he threw it over and the hitters couldn’t make him pay. In the bigs, they can and are. 

[mark sills]

16 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

Remember when Zebby first got called up, and he would never throw anything out of the zone, and now he can't throw anything in the zone. 

on one of his walks three of the balls hit corners