Is Bailey Ober Behind Schedule This Spring?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

There are certain checkpoints for starting pitchers during spring training that fans have come to expect. Bullpen sessions turn into live batting practice. Live batting practice turns into Grapefruit League innings. Grapefruit League innings slowly stretch into something that resembles a normal workload by the time the regular season rolls around.

When a pitcher appears to take a detour from that standard ramp-up, it is fair to wonder what it means for Opening Day. That is where things currently sit with Bailey Ober as camp moves deeper into March. It wasn’t quite game action yet, but Ober faced a string of legitimate Major League hitters in a live batting practice session on Sunday, and he liked what he saw.

“Felt great,” Ober said. “It always feels good to be out there, especially when you're building up. Two innings, 40, 45 pitches, felt really good. Got swings and misses in both innings that I threw. For the most part, threw strikes. I think one at-bat got away from me. … I feel like my body was moving pretty well on my own, and I was moving fast.”

On the surface, everything sounds normal enough. But Ober’s path to this point has been anything but standard. He worked extensively throughout the winter to regain his delivery, which had become significantly out of whack during 2025 while he dealt with a left hip injury. He was pleased with his form approaching camp, but then early in spring he had a couple of throwing sessions where he felt he backslid a bit.

So rather than charge headlong into games, Ober took an extra bullpen session and then two live batting practice sessions before beginning Grapefruit League play.

“The last couple of weeks, [I] hadn't been feeling as sharp as I wanted to,” he said. “Some stuff was getting away from what I was working on this offseason. But I'm feeling healthy, and I think this past week I was able to get back to ... how I want to feel on the mound mechanically. So just giving me a little bit extra time to really dial that in, because I spent so much of this offseason just grinding.”

That decision is probably the biggest reason why this conversation is happening at all. Ober is not injured. He is not shut down. But he is behind where he might normally be in a traditional spring progression because he needed to recalibrate mechanically before putting himself into game situations. There can be frustration when an athlete’s body isn’t responding the way they want.

“It's just baseball. Yes, it is crazy frustrating, especially when you had it in camp and you're throwing 90 mile an hour bullpens in the first week in January, and then you get here and you're like, where the f***’s is my s***? Like, where is it? And then, so being able to kind of diagnose, sit back, get a little extra time these guys allow me to get things right, and go out today and throw, and I felt really good, and feel like it's a good stepping stone going into my next outing.”

The next step for Ober is a game, expected to be on Friday night at home against the Braves. From there, he’ll continue normal buildup, and Twins officials are fully confident he’ll be ready and feeling like himself when the season opens on March 26.

“He's trying to do everything he can to be as efficient in his delivery as possible,” said general manager Jeremy Zoll. “The more efficient you are, the better your stuff plays. It's an opportunity to iron those things out early. He's trying to take advantage of that early, especially with camp starting earlier. We'll let him have that time now instead of down the road.”

“There's still plenty of time,” Zoll said. “We're not worried about that. He's had multiple ups and different things. Not worried about his availability.”

Minnesota's Opening Day rotation has already taken multiple hits. Pablo Lopez is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, and David Festa has been shut down for multiple weeks with a shoulder issue. If Ober isn't ready for Opening Day, Mick Abel would likely be the next man up in the rotation. However, that would leave few experienced options in the Triple-A rotation as depth. 

Is there a chance Ober is not quite ready for Opening Day? Sure. That possibility exists any time a pitcher deviates from the normal script this late in camp. But the Twins are making a clear bet here. They would rather have Ober slightly behind on innings in late March than fighting his delivery again in late May. And if this extra time now keeps his mechanics synced when the games start to matter, it may end up being less of a delay and more of an investment.

Should the Twins be worried about Ober's availability? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[OregonTwinsFan]

There is definitely room to be worried about Ober. Hate to say it, but he might be washed up. Hope not. He can't afford to lose any velocity. No matter how you slice it, nothing in the last year has gone well for him.

[miller761]

How about Ober in the bullpen?

[Vanimal46]

If Bailey Ober can't rebound to his 2023-2024 form, our rotation might be reduced to Joe Ryan and pray for rain. 

[Parfigliano]

16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If Bailey Ober can't rebound to his 2023-2024 form, our rotation might be reduced to Joe Ryan and pray for rain. 

I don't have the info Mr Pohlad has but to me it seems this team will not be competing this season.

[thelanges5]

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt but if Ober is out/behind then they need to sign Littell or Giolito. 

[SteveLV]

Nah, just run the youngsters out there.  It is sink or swim time.  Just like Viola in his early career where he lost like 17 or 19 games.  Have to learn how to pitch at this level, or learn that you can't pitch at this level.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

If Bailey Ober can't rebound to his 2023-2024 form, our rotation might be reduced to Joe Ryan and pray for rain. 

Today Joe Ryan, but forecast is lots of cryin'.

[Old Twins Hat]

Spring Training is coming down to Ober's velocity and Royce's durability.

If either falters, it's mediocrity for the Twins.

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Spring Training is coming down to Ober's velocity and Royce's durability.

If either falters, it's mediocrity for the Twins.

It's 70 wins tops with them.

[Whitey333]

Well you can't get much worse than Ober was last year especially counting on him to be good.  2026 is going to be difficult for sure.  70 wins?  Maybe 65?

[CRF]

Does it really matter if he's behind schedule? 

[saviking]

Is anybody ON SCHEDULE ..

[Bodie]

A real possibility that his success boiled down to being a very tall/long linbed, resulting in a nearly unique experience for batters facing him.

Face him a few times and it's no longer unique, but a guy who throws a 90 mph fastball.  Hope it is not the case, but...

[bean5302]

Honestly, only matters to me if he's throwing fastballs at 88-90 or if he's throwing them at 91-92.

[farmerguychris]

16 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I don't have the info Mr Pohlad has but to me it seems this team will not be competing this season.

lol - I expect we will be competitive.... in at least a handful of games.... right?

[laloesch]

On 3/4/2026 at 8:16 AM, Whitey333 said:

Well you can't get much worse than Ober was last year especially counting on him to be good.  2026 is going to be difficult for sure.  70 wins?  Maybe 65?

If Ober struggles and with Lopez out for the season, it's down to Ryan, Richardson, and ...... a whole bunch of inexperienced starters in Abel, Bradley, Festa, Matthews and Morris.  Prielipp, Raya, and Rojas are also in the mix potentially.  I think the Twins should just let the kids play and see who rises to the occasion.  I have no illusions this team is gonna be competitive.  They should trade Ryan and load up on more prospects, but that's just my opinion.  

[Sjoski]

On 3/3/2026 at 8:20 PM, Vanimal46 said:

our rotation might be reduced to Joe Ryan and pray for rain. 

This statement may need some updating:

" Pray for a flood beyond biblical proportions "