Pablo López’s Injury Changes Everything and It Is Time for the Twins to Trade Joe Ryan

[Riverbrian]

Yes Joe Ryan should have been dealt and he still should be dealt. I can't be angry about it because I have no idea what teams were/are offering for him and he certainly shouldn't be given away. 

Rebuilds, resets, re-whatevers come in shades. They range from a full rebuild to kind of. There are many paths to take. 

Some of the folks here think a full rebuild should be done. I get the logic of that thinking... I won't argue it. However... I'm not even recommending a tear it down to the studs approach. 

What I'd like to see them do... Is trade the players who are at the peak of their trade value. The players whose trade value will most likely diminish as 2026 progresses. And I'd like them to take those specific assets and try to acquire a young near major league ready 1B and SS to fill what have been clear development holes that are obvious on the current roster. There are two players... in my opinion of course with significant trade value at the moment that is sure to decline over the course of this season. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers. 

That's it. Trade those two to get maximum value in return. Target a young 1B with talent and a young SS with talent. 

With Joe Ryan making 6 Million this year and possibly 13 million next year. His value is two years of control at for about 19 million. With his top of the rotation talent... I have no idea but I've said this before and I'll say it again. That could be a Walker Jenkins type talent in return. If you lose that trade value... that is a Walker Jenkins sized loss. That is huge. 

If you wait until the trade deadline. It will be 1 year plus a couple of months... albeit important months at 15 million or so. Not to mention that if everything works out and the Twins find themselves in contention at the trade deadline... they won't trade him and now you have 1 year at 13 million to offer at significantly less trade value. So... No Walker Jenkins sized talent coming back in return.    

The only way his trade value doesn't take a hit at the trade deadline is if he has a better year this year than last year, stays healthy or there is a seller scarcity that drives the price up.... which I suppose is possible. 

The risk is enormous. If what happened to Pablo happens to Joe Ryan this year. All of his current trade value is gone. If that happens... the cost is a player with the potential value of a Walker Jenkins. This scenario could be the equivalent of Walker Jenkins just vanishing off the roster. That's what you would lose.   

Minnesota is going to have to figure out when to trade at peak value. Joe Ryan is peak value right now. He would have to pitch like Tarik Skubal to maintain his current value in the future. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

If you're not buying, and you're not selling, you're standing still. And when you're standing still you get left behind. 

It's not that we see the Twins as a source of talent for others. Which is especially nonsensical considering the Twins received Joe Ryan by "being a source of talent" for another team. 

And if you’re selling on clearance, it might mean you’re going out of business — not literally, but competitively.  We sold a player on an expiring contract when we were out of contention for Joe Ryan.  It was a great trade.  Now that we have him (and have always tried really hard to get front line starting pitching), let’s enjoy the fruits of that trade rather than trade him away for a couple of maybes and a will never be. 

 

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

And if you’re selling on clearance, it might mean you’re going out of business

On this I think everyone is in agreement. No one thinks they should trade Joe Ryan just for the purpose of trading him. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

On this I think everyone is in agreement. No one thinks they should trade Joe Ryan just for the purpose of trading him. 

 

I don’t think that they are.  I just think they are placing more faith in the return than i am.  Trading for prospects is like playing the lottery.  Once in a while, like in the case of Joe Ryan, you pick the winning numbers.  Much of the time, you don’t, so when you get a winner, I’m against day-trading it away.  

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Trading for prospects is like playing the lottery.  

More than you think. People like to play the lottery because it offers daydreams of hope. Unfortunately this current Twins team offers very little hope.

But this lottery, as you call it, also has a way higher hit rate to be so derided. In fact, good organizations sustain themselves on these sorts of transactions. 

Fearing the loss of a good pitcher on a bad team is just not something many here will take part of. 

[GNess]

I am not sure the Twins should trade Ryan right now.

I am sure the motivation for the trade should not be fear of injury! Injuries happen and they force adjustments, but teams simply can't function fearing them.

[DJL44]

Even if they keep Joe Ryan for all of 2026, they're not a contender. A short season with Pablo back in the rotation and the prospects another year older could be interesting for 2027. Play for 2027-2028. That means trading Ryan and Jeffers.

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don’t think that they are.  I just think they are placing more faith in the return than i am.  Trading for prospects is like playing the lottery.  Once in a while, like in the case of Joe Ryan, you pick the winning numbers.  Much of the time, you don’t, so when you get a winner, I’m against day-trading it away.  

I am pro-prospect but even as I say that. I recognize the risk. Some pan out... Some don't. Some pay off big time... some are simply average performers. Some get 50 terrible AB's and are never heard from again. 

There are simply no guarantees but I'll tell you what eases my mind. Watching other teams do this sort of thing consistently, sustaining competitiveness. Having success with some... failing with some but coming out ahead in the end. 

I'd imagine the Brewers fancy themselves contenders this year. I'd imagine that Freddy Peralta on their 2026 roster would be a significant boost to their chances... Not to mention Tobias Myers. They cashed out before they got nothing for him and they are going to see what Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat will do in Nashville. Just like they did with Corbin Burnes, Just like they did Josh Hader. Just like they did with Devin Williams.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, DataNerd said:

I don't think they are going to lose a ton of value by keeping him until July, and baseball is a lot more unpredictable than many people here are acting like it is.  We went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 in 2017.

That guarantees Ryan’s shoulder will explode opening day.

Thanks for Jynxing it

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, SarasotaBill said:

Wait two months and let's see the results. 

Ryan in the rotation eases the bullpen which affects the games he doesn't pitch.

We will know a lot more in two months about the number of young players on the roster as well.

Most likely he will be traded at the deadline when teams have a better idea if they have a chance to win the World Series. 

This is the answer, especially if you are looking for prospect return as compared to quality major league hitting return. It is my view that teams do better in terms of prospects when they trade at the deadline. Teams are more desperate, and the supply of quality starting pitching is much lower than it is now. A guy like Ryan could easily be seen as a piece that takes a contending team into championship contention. I would wait until July, see where we are, and if we’re languishing, that’s when you trade Ryan. The only reason to trade him now is if someone is offering a quality middle of the order controllable bat plus prospects in return. I haven’t heard anything like that.

[Fred]

Tom Pohlad is in a tough spot. He's scrambling to find ways to increase attendance and fan interest. "Hey, Ryan is pitching. Let's go to the game" is one way to hold on to what little attendance they're getting now. I can see the argument for trading him for a good return, but the philosophy of trading players because their value is high and might drop is a good way to remain at a AAA level. That will certainly not do much for fan interest in the present and will decrease the value of the ballclub. I'm all for the Pohlads selling. Keep that value as high as possible in the short term.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

We need to trade everyone with a pulse.  If you have spent 1 day in the majors, you have so much experience that we should trade you for a AA prospect.  We need to get so young that all our top prospects are in Low A ball or lower.  Let's break is down to the studs.  Jenkins is too high at AAA.  He is knocking on the door to the majors.  We need to trade him and get younger too.  In fact TC Bear is past his Prime and needs to go.  

If this sounds ridiculous to you and it should.  So should trading Ryan now because of an injury.

What you suggest in jest is not tearing it down to the studs it is 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Yes Joe Ryan should have been dealt and he still should be dealt. I can't be angry about it because I have no idea what teams were/are offering for him and he certainly shouldn't be given away. 

Rebuilds, resets, re-whatevers come in shades. They range from a full rebuild to kind of. There are many paths to take. 

Some of the folks here think a full rebuild should be done. I get the logic of that thinking... I won't argue it. However... I'm not even recommending a tear it down to the studs approach. 

What I'd like to see them do... Is trade the players who are at the peak of their trade value. The players whose trade value will most likely diminish as 2026 progresses. And I'd like them to take those specific assets and try to acquire a young near major league ready 1B and SS to fill what have been clear development holes that are obvious on the current roster. There are two players... in my opinion of course with significant trade value at the moment that is sure to decline over the course of this season. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers. 

That's it. Trade those two to get maximum value in return. Target a young 1B with talent and a young SS with talent. 

With Joe Ryan making 6 Million this year and possibly 13 million next year. His value is two years of control at for about 19 million. With his top of the rotation talent... I have no idea but I've said this before and I'll say it again. That could be a Walker Jenkins type talent in return. If you lose that trade value... that is a Walker Jenkins sized loss. That is huge. 

If you wait until the trade deadline. It will be 1 year plus a couple of months... albeit important months at 15 million or so. Not to mention that if everything works out and the Twins find themselves in contention at the trade deadline... they won't trade him and now you have 1 year at 13 million to offer at significantly less trade value. So... No Walker Jenkins sized talent coming back in return.    

The only way his trade value doesn't take a hit at the trade deadline is if he has a better year this year than last year, stays healthy or there is a seller scarcity that drives the price up.... which I suppose is possible. 

The risk is enormous. If what happened to Pablo happens to Joe Ryan this year. All of his current trade value is gone. If that happens... the cost is a player with the potential value of a Walker Jenkins. This scenario could be the equivalent of Walker Jenkins just vanishing off the roster. That's what you would lose.   

Minnesota is going to have to figure out when to trade at peak value. Joe Ryan is peak value right now. He would have to pitch like Tarik Skubal to maintain his current value in the future. 

 

Agreed! And with a looming contentious labor dispute, next offseason could see trades and free agency very soft.

time is not on Zoll’s side

[Maybe Next Year]

So let me get this straight. The Twins supposedly have one of the best farm systems in baseball, consistently ranked in the 10 or better. We traded away 10 players last year for more prospects. Now you want us to trade away our best pitcher for even more prospects. Is the goal to maintain a top level farm system at the cost of the MLB club? Hang on to Ryan and let’s bring up some of these youngsters and see what they can do. We don’t need more prospects. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16 minutes ago, Fred said:

Tom Pohlad is in a tough spot. He's scrambling to find ways to increase attendance and fan interest. "Hey, Ryan is pitching. Let's go to the game" is one way to hold on to what little attendance they're getting now. I can see the argument for trading him for a good return, but the philosophy of trading players because their value is high and might drop is a good way to remain at a AAA level. That will certainly not do much for fan interest in the present and will decrease the value of the ballclub. I'm all for the Pohlads selling. Keep that value as high as possible in the short term.

They signed 3 minor league free agents who almost locks to make the opening day roster. This team is a worse team than the one that won 70 games last year and ended 4th in the central.

[DannySD]

If they really made an offer on Valdez, maybe they have money for a Joe Ryan extension. Prospects are always a crapshoot. Without much money on the books going forward, it's time to start thinking about keeping some good players. 

I also agree with the yesterday's article -- the Lopez injury makes us more likely to contend in 2027. 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed! And with a looming contentious labor dispute, next offseason could see trades and free agency very soft.

time is not on Zoll’s side

It certainly could lead to cautiousness next off-season. 

Who knows how the potential labor dispute ends. Right now... I'm not going to react to the public posturing or the opinions expressed. The posturing... the attempting to sway public opinion is going to reach nausea levels as we get closer to the end of this CBA. 

I'd imagine that Both sides are going to look out for their best interests, both sides are going to want as much of the pie as they can get and both sides should clearly understand the damage done if the games are lost during the season. In the end, I believe there is a possibility that minor changes are made with nothing substantial just like every CBA we have been through as fans. 

However... Yeah... Some teams just might freeze if they feel major changes are going to happen or revenue is lost due to games being cancelled. 

Whatever happens... happens but I'm reasonably certain that talent will still need to be acquired when it's all said and done.  

[Teflon]

Joe Ryan is scratched from his pitching assignment today. Is there something in the works? 

[Teflon]

Update: Lower back tightness for Ryan.

[jorgenswest]

He is the one established starter on the staff. We have no idea what Ober will bring. I think his leadership matters to the development of the young starters. That has value. His innings matter to the development of the team.

There is no path to totally break it down anymore. Teams don’t trade top flight prospects. The first round pick is not guaranteed like it was for the Astros and Orioles. You have to develop the players in the system. He helps with that development. By the deadline hopefully one or two others will establish themselves. At that time a Berrios deal (2 top 100 talents) will be possible and likely isn’t much different from what they are being offered now. Maybe the Giants will have starter trouble and change their mind about making Eldridge available. In that case a deal now makes sense.

[TJSweens]

Yes, trade them all. Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers, etc. Bring up Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod, Gonzales, all the kid pitchers. Throw them into the fire to take their lumps. 

Then Derek Shelton... aka The Most Interesting Man In The World...can go Rick Pitino on the media....

"Tony Oliva is not walking through that door, and Rod Carew is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door, they’re going to be gray and old … I wish we had a $200 million payroll. I wish we could buy the world. We can’t; the only thing we can do is work hard, and all the negativity that’s in this town sucks. I’ve been around when Mike Marshall was booed."

Or maybe start the season and see what unfolds by the deadline.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I am pro-prospect but even as I say that. I recognize the risk. Some pan out... Some don't. Some pay off big time... some are simply average performers. Some get 50 terrible AB's and are never heard from again. 

There are simply no guarantees but I'll tell you what eases my mind. Watching other teams do this sort of thing consistently, sustaining competitiveness. Having success with some... failing with some but coming out ahead in the end. 

I'd imagine the Brewers fancy themselves contenders this year. I'd imagine that Freddy Peralta on their 2026 roster would be a significant boost to their chances... Not to mention Tobias Myers. They cashed out before they got nothing for him and they are going to see what Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat will do in Nashville. Just like they did with Corbin Burnes, Just like they did Josh Hader. Just like they did with Devin Williams.  

I admire your optimism for sure.  I just remember living through some pretty awful trades over the years. . . Johann Santana, Rod Carew. . . . The list goes on.  They did hit on the Frank Viola trade though, so I guess there’s hope, but that was 30+ years ago.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

More than you think. People like to play the lottery because it offers daydreams of hope. Unfortunately this current Twins team offers very little hope.

But this lottery, as you call it, also has a way higher hit rate to be so derided. In fact, good organizations sustain themselves on these sorts of transactions. 

Fearing the loss of a good pitcher on a bad team is just not something many here will take part of. 

Essentially the scenario that the Twins are playing is to not buy the lottery ticket at all because you don't want to buy the $5 ticket. This is crumpling that $5 loosely into your pocket and having it fall out and losing it when you pull your car keys out of your pocket. This is part of why car manufacturers started producing key fobs instead.....

The Twins are choosing to crumple up the $5 by sitting on Ryan for what has every look of a last place team in a bad division.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I am pro-prospect but even as I say that. I recognize the risk. Some pan out... Some don't. Some pay off big time... some are simply average performers. Some get 50 terrible AB's and are never heard from again. 

There are simply no guarantees but I'll tell you what eases my mind. Watching other teams do this sort of thing consistently, sustaining competitiveness. Having success with some... failing with some but coming out ahead in the end. 

I'd imagine the Brewers fancy themselves contenders this year. I'd imagine that Freddy Peralta on their 2026 roster would be a significant boost to their chances... Not to mention Tobias Myers. They cashed out before they got nothing for him and they are going to see what Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat will do in Nashville. Just like they did with Corbin Burnes, Just like they did Josh Hader. Just like they did with Devin Williams.  

I wanted to see the Twins work out a Sproat or Tong for Ryan deal, the other piece could have been further negotiated. 

[HerbieFan]

I'm waiting til the deadline.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

12 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Essentially the scenario that the Twins are playing is to not buy the lottery ticket at all because you don't want to buy the $5 ticket. This is crumpling that $5 loosely into your pocket and having it fall out and losing it when you pull your car keys out of your pocket. This is part of why car manufacturers started producing key fobs instead.....

The Twins are choosing to crumple up the $5 by sitting on Ryan for what has every look of a last place team in a bad division.

I’m not sure I agree with that analogy.  I would suggest that if you only have the $5, you probably shouldn’t be playing the lottery at all.  

[Twinsrtheworst]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They signed 3 minor league free agents who almost locks to make the opening day roster. This team is a worse team than the one that won 70 games last year and ended 4th in the central.

I once again would take that bet.  But no takers, or are you willing to back these words up with something?

[Twinsrtheworst]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Essentially the scenario that the Twins are playing is to not buy the lottery ticket at all because you don't want to buy the $5 ticket. This is crumpling that $5 loosely into your pocket and having it fall out and losing it when you pull your car keys out of your pocket. This is part of why car manufacturers started producing key fobs instead.....

The Twins are choosing to crumple up the $5 by sitting on Ryan for what has every look of a last place team in a bad division.

You predict this every year on every article. We get it you believe the Twins will finish last every year for ever.  Yikes get a new take.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 minutes ago, se7799 said:

I once again would take that bet.  But no takers, or are you willing to back these words up with something?

What bet?

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, se7799 said:

I am also still willing to bet you the Twins will not be a last place team….are you? 

There are 5 teams in the division, one of them will be last. Right now this one doesn't have the look of the upper echelon.