What Comes Next for Twins and Joe Ryan?

[LastOnePicked]

5 hours ago, NJM said:

I'm likely in the minority but I think he should be traded at his highest price, we could get a haul for him and it would open another rotation spot for the younger guys. 

Yes. Not out of malice - I like Ryan and I think he deserves the money - but the Twins are clearly not going for it this year, so they need to be pursuing future value at every opportunity. And I love seeing former Twins get a shot at a World Series run if they can't get a shot at one here.

[Woof Bronzer]

 

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

I'm not a math guy (I was told there wouldn't be any math) but $500,000 is a lot of money, roughly 8% of the deal.  It's easy to spend someone elses money.

The Pohlads are not billionairs because they tossed away 8% of anything in any deal, quite the opposite.

$500k is approximately 0.01 % of the Pohlads net worth.  

0.01% of the average American net worth is about $5.  

The Pohlads are holding out and further irritating one of its few good players over the equivalent of $5.  

 

[jkcarew]

Does anyone REALLY think that avoiding arbitration would have made it more likely the Twins retain Ryan at free agency?? Against all evidence, recent and historical?

If he maintains performance and health, it’s not happening regardless. Hoping he remains with the Twins beyond free agency is exactly the same as hoping his performance and/or health nosedive in the immediate future…as that’s the only way his price will be a realistic option for the Twins. Call it the Buxton chronic injury discount. We know this to be true.

Best case is…and always has been…hope he remains great/healthy…and either ride him to a championship run and let him walk (obviously not happening), or trade him by the 2026 deadline.

[ziggy]

Quote

Does anyone REALLY think that avoiding arbitration would have made it more likely the Twins retain Ryan at free agency??

His agent is Scott Boras. No way Ryan does not enter free agency.

[CRF]

Hopefully...16 or 17 wins out of the 65-70 we'll be lucky enough to get as a team.

[Western SD Fan]

When reading through the article and the comments, I do not see who Joe Ryan's agent is.  Even a web search surprisingly isn't helpful in finding that information.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that Ryan is a Boras client.  Boras's clients have historically (not always) tested the free agent market or at least made the rounds gauging interest before signing an extension with a team.  Of the players that have be re-signed or signed an extension with their current team, the only player since 2019 that fits the bill of a Twins-type spender was Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals.  Every other player resigned or was extended with a high-payroll team.  Examples are Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve, Cody Bellenger, etc.  

Again, let's assume that any half-decent GM has already been in discussions with Joe Ryan about an extension to gauge what he is expecting in terms of a contract (I know, I know, a lot of assuming when it comes to Falvey).  It's definitely possible that they have already determined that Ryan is going to be out of their price range and just trying to time the market on when it will be optimal to trade him (think Gerrit Cole) without abandoning the withering group of fans that the Twins have left.

 

 

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

When reading through the article and the comments, I do not see who Joe Ryan's agent is.  Even a web search surprisingly isn't helpful in finding that information.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that Ryan is a Boras client.  Boras's clients have historically (not always) tested the free agent market or at least made the rounds gauging interest before signing an extension with a team.  Of the players that have be re-signed or signed an extension with their current team, the only player since 2019 that fits the bill of a Twins-type spender was Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals.  Every other player resigned or was extended with a high-payroll team.  Examples are Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve, Cody Bellenger, etc.  

Again, let's assume that any half-decent GM has already been in discussions with Joe Ryan about an extension to gauge what he is expecting in terms of a contract (I know, I know, a lot of assuming when it comes to Falvey).  It's definitely possible that they have already determined that Ryan is going to be out of their price range and just trying to time the market on when it will be optimal to trade him (think Gerrit Cole) without abandoning the withering group of fans that the Twins have left.

 

 

MLBTR has a player database with agents.  According to MLBTR, Ryan is represented by CAA Sports, not Boras.

[Nashvilletwin]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

The exact ammounts they were haggling over is unknown. The amount they were asking for in negotiations could be far different. The arbitration number represents what the agent thinks they can get out of someone else making the decision. There is a difference

 

So, the Twins just can’t say “Ok, because you’ve done such great work here and we love you so much, we will give you your arbitration ask” and call it a day?  

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Does anyone REALLY think that avoiding arbitration would have made it more likely the Twins retain Ryan at free agency?? Against all evidence, recent and historical?

If he maintains performance and health, it’s not happening regardless. Hoping he remains with the Twins beyond free agency is exactly the same as hoping his performance and/or health nosedive in the immediate future…as that’s the only way his price will be a realistic option for the Twins. Call it the Buxton chronic injury discount. We know this to be true.

Best case is…and always has been…hope he remains great/healthy…and either ride him to a championship run and let him walk (obviously not happening), or trade him by the 2026 deadline.

either ride him to a championship run
 

Seriously……..?

[ziggy]

My memory said Ryan and Jeffers were Boras clients.

I was wrong. Again. This getting old isn't for sissys. 

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So, the Twins just can’t say “Ok, because you’ve done such great work here and we love you so much, we will give you your arbitration ask” and call it a day?  

Did I say the Twins shouldn’t sign him for that value? I they certainly could. Now try and understand that what I said was you don’t know how far apart they were at the negotiating table. The Twins submitted a figure that was what the experts at trade rumors said he should get.  It is not like they are unreasonably low with the offer. They might have been lower at the end of negotiations, Ryan might have been much higher. Still, you nullify a process that you screw nothing about 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Berrios, Buxton, and Lewis have all been vocally unhappy with the front office. Buxton even filed a grievance against the Twins in 2018, before he was angry again with them in 2021 before the trade deadline.

Falvey's front office has been linked to the "championship belt" awarded to the front office which is most successful at surpressing player salaries in arbitration.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/mlb-awards-championship-belt-during-arbitration-symposium.html

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/

Time and time again we see arbitration avoided with salary values well under projected for this club. I don't think that just happens out of the blue. There are business reasons to do it, but a one size fits all approach isn't appropriate in my mind anyway.

They came to amicable settlements that avoided arbitration with 6 other guys ……. baseball (pro sports) is a business ……. sometimes guys get paid and sometimes they don’t (as a contrast to Falvey, would people here fire the Houston GM for letting Framber Valdez walk?).

The presumption that Ryan should be paid like and considered a #1 starter is premature in my opinion. He’s a competitive guy with a solid/unique fastball. He’s also a guy that threw 171 innings (30 starts) in ‘25 but also missed weeks from each of his first 3 full time seasons with injuries. THIS year, Ryan has the  best leverage he’s had to date but I don’t think the Team. or any business, just needs to relent  when the player has performed well. We can dramatize either side of the debate I guess.

The arbitration process is part of the game and sometimes it has to play out before moving forward. I don’t think this creates any huge rift but all individuals/players are different.

[SteveLV]

JD-Twins, I think you need to think about how the Arbitration process works.  The Twins are there with their lawyers.  Joe Ryan is there with his Agents who are also lawyers.

Then each side presents their "Case" to the Arbitrator as to why their figure is the one to select.  That involves the Team pointing out the weaknesses in the players' performance to argue why their lower figure is fair.

Imagine Ryan sitting there and listening to the team's representatives identifying his alleged shortcomings.

If you don't think that is problematic, I don't think you are realistic, forgive me for saying so.

I have handled hundreds of Arbitrations.  You can be as decent and polite as possible, but there are inevitably hard feelings at the end.

They should--and still can--just split the difference and move on.  The Goodwill is important, even if they don't plan to sign him long-term.  Players talk to each other, and you don't want the players to have an adversarial relationship with management, although this team may have already torpedoed any Goodwill with the trade deadline moves last year.....

[K.Hibl]

Thinking about this over the next two years that he is arb eligible, this 500k difference is realistically more like $1.1ism million since it will be factored into his arb number next year. With where payroll is and likely will be, that is a not insignificant amount. I'm guessing Joe's camp is fairly certain they will win otherwise you would think they would settle somewhere in the middle.

[DJL44]

I think the Ranger Suarez contract (5 years, $130M) sets the floor for a Joe Ryan extension. The Twins will also need to buy out Ryan's arbitration in 2027. That would mean 6 years, $145M. Are people prepared to guarantee him that much money for his 30s? That would be the 2nd biggest contract in franchise history.

[Otaknam]

Offending your best and most underpaid starter over $500 K is so predictable for this poorly managed franchise. The ghost of Calvin Griffith has arisen and still lurks to hold the Twins back. $500 K in baseball is a small enough figure that they should be able to get something done. That fact that they didn’t speaks volumes of the ongoing penury of this bunch. 

[Linus]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think the Ranger Suarez contract (5 years, $130M) sets the floor for a Joe Ryan extension. The Twins will also need to buy out Ryan's arbitration in 2027. That would mean 6 years, $145M. Are people prepared to guarantee him that much money for his 30s? That would be the 2nd biggest contract in franchise history.

I’m not. There is no chance the Twins sign him to an extension. Get great value for him right now.