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Posted

Since 2017, MLB has awarded compensation picks to teams based on a combination of revenue, market size, and record in two separate rounds. Fifteen teams receive these picks in two groups (one of seven teams, one of eight). Comp Round A takes place between the compensation picks following the first and second rounds. Comp Round B takes place immediately following the second round.

Teams alternate between Comp Round A and Comp Round B selections depending on the year. In 2025, the Twins used their Comp Round A selection on Alabama RHP Riley Quick. In 2026, they will have a Comp Round B pick. The order of those selections was released today.

The Twins were awarded the final selection in Comp Round B. In 2025, that pick was 74th overall and carried a slot value of $1,111,000. While this isn't great news, it won't have a massive effect on the Twins' bonus pool. The difference between the slot values of the first pick in Comp Round B and the last pick in 2025 was $209,400. We can expect slot values for draft picks to increase by between 4% and 9% in a given year.

Let's hope the Twins' bad luck is behind them, with the Draft Lottery scheduled for December 9th. The Twins currently have the second-best odds of landing the first overall pick. The outcome of the lottery will have a massive impact on the Twins' ability to spend (and have access to the best talent) in the 2026 MLB Draft. 


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Posted
14 hours ago, old nurse said:

Last time the Twins had the first pick they chose the guy who would sign for less. They used the money to sign 2 players who did not come close to panning out. There were some great cases made here for taking Gore or Greene 

Hindsight is 20 /20.  Trust me, I'm a Vikings fan.  I've spent most of the last month listening to fans gripe about moves that they cheered about when they happened.

Posted
5 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Hindsight is 20 /20.  Trust me, I'm a Vikings fan.  I've spent most of the last month listening to fans gripe about moves that they cheered about when they happened.

Lewis might have had the highest ceiling. The question would be who was going to be the best player.  McCarthy might have had the highest ceiling of the QBs available, at the time the Vikings drafted. He also had the longest climb to get there 

Posted

To be fair we jumped up from #13 to get the #5 pick in 2023.  Luck wise - we have much higher odds than normal.  22.18% .  Guaranteed a top 8 pick.   

Now we jumped several teams by record to get the current odds.  Although that wasn't luck -that was just losing a lot after the trade deadline.  This pays off if we get a top 3 pick.   

Posted

As a Twins fan I hope the Twins get lucky with the draft lottery.  

As a baseball fan and a rational and objective human being, the franchise and the Pohlads absolutely do not deserve to further benefit from the financial shenanigans and incompetent organizational management they've been operating under for the last several seasons.

 

Posted

Jamie thanks for the update! Always like to know where we are picking.  Glass half full, in getting a later round comp B pick is we are just closer to our third round pick.  Close to picking back to back.

I'd love to see the Twins pick top 2 in this draft, but if they fall they fall.  It would take some incredibly bad luck for them to pick 8th even 7th seems like a long shot. Still the further they fall the more likely they choose an arm over a bat and there are going to be good players in the top ten of this draft anyway.

Looking forward to the board you come up with this year.  Thanks for the best Twins draft coverage anywhere!

Posted
19 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Bad luck?  Didn't we jump way up to get Walker Jenkins just a couple years ago?  

Maybe the bad luck is who they drafted

Posted
On 12/2/2025 at 4:35 PM, old nurse said:

Last time the Twins had the first pick they chose the guy who would sign for less. They used the money to sign 2 players who did not come close to panning out. There were some great cases made here for taking Gore or Greene 

There were also cases being made for McKay, who has been a total bust and is out of baseball. Greene looks like he's figured it out, but has injury issues of his own. Gore had his first good season last year. But please tell me who exactly it was around here that was able to accurately predict the injury history for any of the top 5 picks in that draft before they happened?

Royce's issue has been injuries and not staying on the field; even last season he only made 106 games. yes, he struggled, but that's also after having how many injuries? 

Rays went over slot on McKay. think they feel great about it now? Braves went over slot on Wright, and probably thought they had something after 2024. After 2025, when he was injured and terrible, they might feel a little less good. Notably, the Rays in 2017 couldn't sign their late first round pick, who went back to college and probably cost himself about $1.5M after falling to the 6th round the next year. Rays also went over slot on their second round pick, much like the Twins did with Enlow, for Mercado, who spent 5 years in their system doing nothing before getting dealt for next to nothing. He's been bad and can currently be had for likely a minor league deal assuming he doesn't move on in life.

Twins didn't really do anything wrong in the 2017 draft; it just hasn't worked out for Royce so far. If he comes back and has a good and healthy season in 2026 they're still doing ok. (and notably, 2017 was when they found Bailey Ober in the late rounds)

Baseball draft is still seriously hard to predict. Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper sure like they were pretty good picks, so there's good reason to believe the Twins would pick wisely with a top pick.

Posted

The 2026 draft has the most high end talent in the last twenty years.  I would love to see the Twins get the #2 pick and have one of the biggest draft $$ pools in the draft.  Being able to go over slot with picks in round 2, comp pick B, round 3, and round 4 would be fantastic.  That would allow us to select a top college player in round one, then go over slot for a high school kid or two.  

I have followed the baseball draft since 1984 when I bought my first Baseball America.  Over the years, I have noticed that selecting college players from the SEC will often pay off in the middle and late rounds.  You can also find solid, but under-rated talent in the Big 12 and the ACC.  When it comes to the Big West, Mountain West, and other conferences, the opposition is weaker, so you can really only focus on tools over stats.

Posted
6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There were also cases being made for McKay, who has been a total bust and is out of baseball. Greene looks like he's figured it out, but has injury issues of his own. Gore had his first good season last year. But please tell me who exactly it was around here that was able to accurately predict the injury history for any of the top 5 picks in that draft before they happened?

Royce's issue has been injuries and not staying on the field; even last season he only made 106 games. yes, he struggled, but that's also after having how many injuries? 

Rays went over slot on McKay. think they feel great about it now? Braves went over slot on Wright, and probably thought they had something after 2024. After 2025, when he was injured and terrible, they might feel a little less good. Notably, the Rays in 2017 couldn't sign their late first round pick, who went back to college and probably cost himself about $1.5M after falling to the 6th round the next year. Rays also went over slot on their second round pick, much like the Twins did with Enlow, for Mercado, who spent 5 years in their system doing nothing before getting dealt for next to nothing. He's been bad and can currently be had for likely a minor league deal assuming he doesn't move on in life.

Twins didn't really do anything wrong in the 2017 draft; it just hasn't worked out for Royce so far. If he comes back and has a good and healthy season in 2026 they're still doing ok. (and notably, 2017 was when they found Bailey Ober in the late rounds)

Baseball draft is still seriously hard to predict. Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper sure like they were pretty good picks, so there's good reason to believe the Twins would pick wisely with a top pick.

This issue I was responding to was about luck. Twins were unlucky in thay draft. Lewis claimed to not be injured the econd half of last year. You can’t use the injury excuse 

Posted
On 12/3/2025 at 7:15 AM, old nurse said:

Lewis might have had the highest ceiling. The question would be who was going to be the best player.  McCarthy might have had the highest ceiling of the QBs available, at the time the Vikings drafted. He also had the longest climb to get there 

if JJ has the longest climb it might stand to reason that it might take him the longest time.

Posted
1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

if JJ has the longest climb it might stand to reason that it might take him the longest time.

What? 3-4 games isn’t enough?  Isn’t it just 3-7 steps stepping backwards and let it fly?  shuffle over to the side a little bit to avoid a tub of lard landing on you.  Surely the game is that simple. Least it was that way in elementary school 

Posted

Looking like a pretty deep draft. #1 would be great, but not much drop off till 10ish. If they miss out on Cholowsky....Boleman has some impressive stats for a HS pitcher.

Posted
On 12/4/2025 at 8:06 PM, old nurse said:

What? 3-4 games isn’t enough?  Isn’t it just 3-7 steps stepping backwards and let it fly?  shuffle over to the side a little bit to avoid a tub of lard landing on you.  Surely the game is that simple. Least it was that way in elementary school 

I suppose.  If Uncle Rico can throw it over a mountain....

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