Why the Twins and Mets Make Sense in a Joe Ryan Blockbuster Trade

[D.C Twins]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Anyone asking for McLean or Alvarez is being ridiculous. They aren't being traded for someone that isn't a bona fide ace.

I don't think Benge is necessarily untouchable, but Stearns is a big system guy and I don't think he trades him either, but it's a fair ask. 

It is entirely reasonable that Mets would offer: Jett, Mauricio/Vientos, Sproat/Tong, and then further prospects like Suero, Reimer or Clifford. That's still a big haul, but understandable if the Twins say it's not enough. 

One further thing to consider is that it looks like Skubal might also be on the market. And I can imagine the Mets being one of the top bidders for him first. Ryan being an after thought. 

 

Fair enough... but then no deal it is!

[Robert Gauthier]

I think all the speculation should take into account that Ryan likely does not want to stay with this organization. His comments have turned vaguely sour on the way this year was handled. It doesn’t matter what you can sign them for you’re gonna lose them when arbitration is passed. If I were a pro with a good future the Twins arethe last place I’d wanna be.  

[tony&rodney]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Anyone asking for McLean or Alvarez is being ridiculous. They aren't being traded for someone that isn't a bona fide ace.

People can and have debated endlessly about what is an ace. That aside, I just don't see the Mets as a real conversation for Ryan. I agree they are not trading Alvarez or McLean but the others are good supplementary players (which is not the target) or similar to guys the Twins already have in their organization. The Twins do not need quantity. I don't envision any reason to talk with the Mets. I like the Mets team and their prospects. I just don't believe they match up.

FWIW, the Mets just don't have the upside in players or prospects for Skubal or at least not at all what the Tigers need. The Tigers are close and should add a top pitcher to chase for a crown in 2026. Something drastic would need to occur for the Tigers to be trading at the deadline. They had an enormous number of injuries this year and were close. 

The Mets will need to look to free agency for answers. The Twins will need to find a match elsewhere.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

One further thing to consider is that it looks like Skubal might also be on the market. And I can imagine the Mets being one of the top bidders for him first. Ryan being an after thought. 

Another reason for the Twins to try to compete in 2026 and 2027.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

FWIW, the Mets just don't have the upside in players or prospects for Skubal or at least not at all what the Tigers need.

I completely disagree with you. The Mets are one of the only teams that DOES have the upside (McLean, Benge) that would be required to trade for Skubal. And they can add depth to the trade as the Tigers see fit. 

The Mets would trade McLean for Skubal. And Tong. And Sproat. And they would trade Manaea, or Senga, or nearly any of their other pitchers, with their salary, in order to get Skubal. 

Like you said, what constitutes an ace is debatable, but there's no debate that the two best pitchers in baseball are Skubal and Skenes. So the bidding war for one of the true aces is going to be fun to watch. 

[TopGunn#22]

Well, I'd just point out that you're saying after 8 starts and 48 innings pitched, that Nolan McLean is already an established major league SP.  I think that statement is a little shaky.  I could counter with "The Mets won't trade McLean because they don't want to repeat a previous mistake with a pitcher whose first name was "NOLAN."  That might be absurd as well.  

I was very VERY impressed with McLean's debut.  And I will be surprised if the Mets trade him.  But Joe Ryan has 46 career WINS (as opposed to 48 career INNINGS) and 641 career innings.  I stand by my point of view that unless McLean is a part of the package for Joe Ryan there will be no further discussion.

It would also be interesting to see teams like the Phillies, Cubs and a few others profiled as well.  

[TopGunn#22]

This was in response to an earlier comment by NYCTK.  

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Well, I'd just point out that you're saying after 8 starts and 48 innings pitched, that Nolan McLean is already an established major league SP.  I think that statement is a little shaky.  I could counter with "The Mets won't trade McLean because they don't want to repeat a previous mistake with a pitcher whose first name was "NOLAN."  That might be absurd as well.  

I was very VERY impressed with McLean's debut.  And I will be surprised if the Mets trade him.  But Joe Ryan has 46 career WINS (as opposed to 48 career INNINGS) and 641 career innings.  I stand by my point of view that unless McLean is a part of the package for Joe Ryan there will be no further discussion.

It would also be interesting to see teams like the Phillies, Cubs and a few others profiled as well.  

Well then there will be no discussion. There is absolutely no way McLean is traded for Ryan. 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

I will also add that one of the biggest flaws in BBTV is how obviously GREAT players are evaluated.  As NYCTK pointed out, Skubal and Skenes are clearly the best SP's in baseball and they will be for quite a few more years.  They are at a level above everyone else.

Yet, BBTV has Skubal valued at 51.6 (his high that I can remember this year was 68.6).  Joe Ryan's high at one point was 73. Ryan finished the season with a value of 47.  Even with a few more years of control and relatively cheap prices for Ryan,  there is no way Ryan should ever have been valued higher than Skubal.  There is NO circumstance where that is possible. 

I cannot envision Skubal NOT winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young award.  Yet somehow, he went from a value of 68.6 to a value of 51.6 at the end of his season.  How is it possible to LOSE value when in all probability he defends his CY Young Award.??  Would Sandy Koufax have fallen in value in 1966 after winning the Cy Young in 1965??  

I think there is a VERY HIGH probability that the Tigers are never going to come close to paying Skubal.  He will be a Met or a Dodger or Yankee or Philly either sometime this off season or certainly sometime in 2027.  This is just how baseball's economics are structured at this time.  Maybe a prolonged strike prior to the 2027 season will solve this problem but I'm not sure.  The Tigers are going to HAVE to trade Skubal at some point and it's going to feel a LOT like it did for the Twins after the 2007 season Johan Santana) for the Tigers.  

 

[NYCTK]

As an aside, I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for both McLean's and Tong's MLB debuts. 

Tong is such a fun, quirky dude. Still don't know that he'll be any good, but the 21 year old goofball was definitely a fan favorite, so I'd still be sad to see him go. 

[Patzky]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Everyone is going to have ideas. Some people will have ideas that might benefit their second favorite team. The Mets don't seem too likely to give up all of McLean, Benge, and Tong or their power hitting young catcher in a trade for Joe Ryan and the Twins should not necessarily be looking for more pitching prospects. So it doesn't look like the Mets are a good match to me. I'm not at all interested in Jet Williams either. 

As has been stated numerous times elsewhere, the Twins need to be smart about any transaction involving Joe Ryan. Position players are their primary need and thus it is on to the next idea now. 28 clubs to go.

Revisit the Red Sox. Now the word is the Tigers and Skubal are worlds apart right now. Should the market for him open up, matters will change.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Well then there will be no discussion. There is absolutely no way McLean is traded for Ryan. 

 

 

Which is what I have said - no reason to call the Mets.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Which is what I have said - no reason to call the Mets.

But that then begs the question, if the demands are entirely unreasonable, how do we hope to ever improve the Twins? 

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I completely disagree with you. The Mets are one of the only teams that DOES have the upside (McLean, Benge) that would be required to trade for Skubal. And they can add depth to the trade as the Tigers see fit. 

The Mets would trade McLean for Skubal. And Tong. And Sproat. And they would trade Manaea, or Senga, or nearly any of their other pitchers, with their salary, in order to get Skubal. 

Like you said, what constitutes an ace is debatable, but there's no debate that the two best pitchers in baseball are Skubal and Skenes. So the bidding war for one of the true aces is going to be fun to watch. 

Detroit has one player to pay at this time, Javy Baez. The Tigers can and will put forth an impressive offer. Skubal may choose to go to free agency, which is likely. The Tigers are not going into a rebuild. Detroit already has in place better players/prospects than can be offered by just about any team. I would shocked if Skubal was traded during this offseason. Many things can occur to lead to an impasse where Skubal is traded in late July. My money is on Detroit retaining Skubal until next July at a minimum. I think they are much more likely to be looking for a few pieces to add, including a guy like Joe Ryan. 

[jjswol]

The Twins are not in a total rebuild situation so it would be just plain dumb to trade for prospects.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Detroit has one player to pay at this time, Javy Baez. The Tigers can and will put forth an impressive offer. Skubal may choose to go to free agency, which is likely. The Tigers are not going into a rebuild. Detroit already has in place better players/prospects than can be offered by just about any team. I would shocked if Skubal was traded during this offseason. Many things can occur to lead to an impasse where Skubal is traded in late July. My money is on Detroit retaining Skubal until next July at a minimum. I think they are much more likely to be looking for a few pieces to add, including a guy like Joe Ryan. 

I actually hope they do keep him and I actually thought they would. I like one team players.

But they are reportedly $250 Million apart in negotiations. That doesn't bode well. I can't even imagine how much either the Tigers are lowballing him ($200 Million?) or Boras is starting large ($600 Million?) for that to even be possible. 

Skubal is going to get at least $400 million. Will the Tigers pay it? 

 

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

But that then begs the question, if the demands are entirely unreasonable, how do we hope to ever improve the Twins? 

The Twins match up better with other teams. Minnesota needs position players, not more pitching prospects. Additionally, MN is flush with LH outfield prospects / players. They need to fill 3-5 positions closer to the plate. There is no doubt this will be challenging but somebody might have their job on the line and be willing to gamble a bit.

Only the guys in charge determine what is "entirely unreasonable', but I don't think McLean is in play. I agree with you that McLean, Benge, and another piece or two isn't happening, which is why the Twins aren't calling New York.

There are a number of teams that need players though and we will wait to see what plays out.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, jjswol said:

The Twins are not in a total rebuild situation so it would be just plain dumb to trade for prospects.

Prospects that are consensus top ten prospects in all of baseball are good bets. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 hours ago, Historyking88 said:

Would like to see you conduct this same exercise more particularly concerning Boston and Philadelphia. Curious to think if either would give up Tolle or Painter in a trade for Ryan. 

Boston isn't close. I doubt Philly deals painter, but good have to consider it if they do.

I think the Mets are the ideal partner. Likely you'll get tong, sproah, and a hitter. 

You aren't getting three top 100 prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, jjswol said:

The Twins are not in a total rebuild situation so it would be just plain dumb to trade for prospects.

Strong disagree. Why would you trade him for a veteran? 

[jjswol]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Prospects that are consensus top ten prospects in all of baseball are good bets. 

Even if they are all top 10 prospects, what is the point? The point is to field a winning team and the Twins can do that I believe, but not if they trade their best pitchers. No body wants a team that keeps dumping their best players constantly to get more prospects. Getting prospects for proven players is a losing proposition, more fail than succeed.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

I actually hope they do keep him and I actually thought they would. I like one team players.

But they are reportedly $250 Million apart in negotiations. That doesn't bode well. I can't even imagine how much either the Tigers are lowballing him ($200 Million?) or Boras is starting large ($600 Million?) for that to even be possible. 

Skubal is going to get at least $400 million. Will the Tigers pay it? 

 

That reporting actually covered themselves by stating that all of Detroit's offers were from 2024, before he won the Cy Young last season. It was a confusing read, even looked at from 3 sources. Detroit has not formulated an offer in more than 15 months supposedly (speculation on reporter's part to an extent). The unknown is whether the son will replay the work of his father and put a room full of gold in front of Skubal.

There will be piles of articles speculating .... 3/$150M .... 8/$320M, and so forth. The teams with money need to go on with their plans. The Twins will like it if he pitches for a NL team. I'm not thinking we should worry about Skubal.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, jjswol said:

Even if they are all top 10 prospects, what is the point? The point is to field a winning team and the Twins can do that I believe, but not if they trade their best pitchers. No body wants a team that keeps dumping their best players constantly to get more prospects. Getting prospects for proven players is a losing proposition, more fail than succeed.

The Twins in their current configuration are a 75 win team at best, still needing a pile of talent. Waiting it out and playing the same roster is exactly how the team fell hard. Some changes need to occur. 

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I cannot envision Skubal NOT winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young award.  Yet somehow, he went from a value of 68.6 to a value of 51.6 at the end of his season.  How is it possible to LOSE value when in all probability he defends his CY Young Award.??  Would Sandy Koufax have fallen in value in 1966 after winning the Cy Young in 1965??  

He loses value because you get less time from him. His value is maxed out - about $65M a season. Anyone who trades for Skubal gets one season at $18M salary and a potential draft pick if they don't extend his contract. All you're seeing in the "lost" value is that one season of Skubal is worth less than two seasons of Skubal. His value will go down even more between now and the trade deadline because you'll only get a half-season in return.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Boston isn't close. I doubt Philly deals painter, but good have to consider it if they do.

I think the Mets are the ideal partner. Likely you'll get tong, sproah, and a hitter. 

You aren't getting three top 100 prospects.

That is probably correct. I will note that I don't remember Joe Ryan ever rating as a top-100 prospect. They should still get more for Ryan than they did for Duran.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, jjswol said:

Even if they are all top 10 prospects, what is the point? The point is to field a winning team and the Twins can do that I believe, but not if they trade their best pitchers. No body wants a team that keeps dumping their best players constantly to get more prospects. Getting prospects for proven players is a losing proposition, more fail than succeed.

Are you familiar with the practices of the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers?  Have you ever looked at how many of their productive players are acquired as prospects?  

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That is probably correct. I will note that I don't remember Joe Ryan ever rating as a top-100 prospect. They should still get more for Ryan than they did for Duran.

Agreed.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He loses value because you get less time from him. His value is maxed out - about $65M a season. Anyone who trades for Skubal gets one season at $18M salary and a potential draft pick if they don't extend his contract. All you're seeing in the "lost" value is that one season of Skubal is worth less than two seasons of Skubal. His value will go down even more between now and the trade deadline because you'll only get a half-season in return.

It's not just the Dior but the amount of time you possess it.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, jjswol said:

Even if they are all top 10 prospects, what is the point? The point is to field a winning team and the Twins can do that I believe, but not if they trade their best pitchers. No body wants a team that keeps dumping their best players constantly to get more prospects. Getting prospects for proven players is a losing proposition, more fail than succeed.

I bet you and others said the same thing in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 and you would have been correct 20%. 

 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

That is probably correct. I will note that I don't remember Joe Ryan ever rating as a top-100 prospect. They should still get more for Ryan than they did for Duran.

Ryan was 80-100 ranked prospect in the various rankings in 2020 and again in 2022. Makes sense, his 2021 minor league season was really impressive stuff.